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XAU/USD 13 May 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: Bias/Analysis remains the same as analysis dated 12 May 2024. -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bullish BOS. After bullish BOS expectation is for price to pullback. We have nested Daily and H4 supply levels where price is expected to initiate pullback. CHoCH is positioned at quite a distance away from current price, therefore, there is a possibility price could engineer a CHoCH closer to current price to indicate initiation of pullback. Previous intraday expectation dated 10 May 2024 was for price to continue bullish, react at nested Daily and H4 POI levels to start pullback phase which price is indicated as printing. Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at discount of 50% EQ or H4 POI, both of which are closely positioned before targeting weak internal high. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a printed a bullish BOS and iBOS After BOS we expect price to pullback. First indication, but not confirmation of pullback initiation would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. Intraday expectation dated 10 May 2024 was for price to react at nested Daily and H4 POI levels to initiate pullback, which price did. Current Intraday expectation: Price to react at M15 POI, discount zone of 50% EQ or H4 POI before targeting weak internal high. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
34
GameFi, Blockchain games, Top projectsGameFi GameFi is a combination of gaming and decentralized finance that combines blockchain technology, NFT (non-flammable tokens), DeFi (decentralized finance), and the play-to-earn (P2E) model to create a unique gaming experience. This innovative approach lets players enjoy the game and earn real money through in-game actions and assets. At its core, GameFi uses blockchain technology to create decentralized gaming platforms where players have full ownership and control over their in-game assets. These assets, often represented as NFTs, can be exchanged or sold on NFT trading platforms, allowing players to monetize their gaming experience. DeFi is essential in GameFi by offering various financial services in the game ecosystem. Players can farm, bet, and provide liquidity, generating passive income while participating in the game. The P2E model is a critical component of GameFi as it allows players to earn cryptocurrency or NFT by completing tasks, competing with other players, and advancing in the game. This model can potentially revolutionize the gaming industry by incentivizing players to invest time and effort into their gaming experience. GameFi projects often combine elements from different sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including tokens, DeFi, NFT, and the meta-universe, to create an immersive and rewarding gaming environment. An example of how the economy works in GameFi through smart contracts: The History and Evolution of GameFi The history and evolution of GameFi is a fascinating journey marked by the innovation, growth, and merger of the gaming industry and decentralized finance. GameFi has seen significant milestones and key events that have shaped the industry from its inception to its current state. In the early days of GameFi, projects such as Axie Infinity and CryptoKitties introduced the concept of play-to-earn (P2E) games, where players could earn cryptocurrency by playing games and participating in the in-game economy. This was a revolutionary development as it allowed players to monetize their gaming experience in previously impossible ways. GameFi's development was also marked by introducing various innovative concepts and technologies. For example, integrating NFTs (non-game tokens) allowed players to own their in-game assets and trade them on NFT trading platforms. This added a new value and utility to the game as players could now buy, sell, and trade unique digital assets. Another significant milestone for GameFi was the development of DeFi (decentralized finance) protocols in gaming ecosystems. This allowed players to farm, bet, and provide liquidity, providing new ways to generate passive income while playing. The "play-and-own" concept was also a critical development in GameFi, shifting the focus from just playing the game to owning and managing in-game assets. This has created a more engaging and rewarding gaming experience, where players play a more active role in the life and development of the games they play. Notable projects such as Legend of Arcadia, Panzerdogs, and CREO Engine have significantly shaped the GameFi industry. They have introduced innovations, partnerships, and technical advances that have pushed the boundaries of what is possible in gaming and decentralized finance. As GameFi continues to evolve, it faces challenges and growth hurdles, such as regulatory uncertainty and the need for more precise rules in the crypto-gaming space. However, the industry is also experiencing exciting developments, such as the integration of artificial intelligence, scalable second-tier solutions, and the emergence of new game genres. GameFi market today The GameFi market is experiencing significant growth and development as the number of active players and games continues to increase. In December 2023, there were more than 1 million active players in the GameFi sector. By April 2024, the number had grown to 3 million, representing a 300 percent growth in active users from 2023 to 2024. This indicates a rapidly growing and engaging market with a projected increase in market size due to this user engagement trend! The GameFi sector had a market capitalization of $20.66 billion. The market shows a diverse landscape in terms of user distribution across platforms and networks. For example, active games with the highest number of users in recent weeks include Sunflower Land ( NSE:SFL ), SecondLive ( NASDAQ:LIVE ), Planetix ($IXT), MOBOX ( AMEX:MBOX ), Tower Token ($TOWER), Crypto Unicorns ( LSE:RBW ), and others. This wide range of active games across multiple platforms and networks indicates a healthy and competitive marketplace where users participate in different games and have different experiences. Technology and tokenomics of GameFi projects The technology and tokenomics behind GameFi projects are primarily driven by integrating blockchain, NFTs (non-gaming tokens), and smart contracts. This combination creates unique gaming experiences and economic incentives, revolutionizing the gaming industry. Blockchain technology is the foundation of GameFi projects. It is a decentralized and distributed digital ledger that records transactions across multiple computers, providing transparency and security. This technology eliminates the need for intermediaries and central authorities, allowing players to own and control their in-game assets fully. Using blockchain in games also enables cross-game interoperability, where players can transfer assets from one game to another. NFTs play an essential role in GameFi by representing unique in-game assets such as characters, weapons, and lands. Unlike fungible tokens such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, NFTs are unique and cannot be replicated, making them valuable and collectible. Thus, players gain ownership of their assets, which can be traded on NFT trading platforms. The value of NFTs can increase depending on their rarity and usefulness in the game, creating economic incentives for players. Smart contracts - self-executing contracts whose terms are written directly into the code - allow you to automate various in-game processes. For example, smart contracts can create an in-game economy, manage assets, and reward players for completing tasks or participating in events. This enhances the game experience by providing players with a transparent and secure environment for economic activity. Tokenomics, or the economic model of a GameFi project, is another crucial aspect of these projects. It involves creating and distributing tokens within the game ecosystem that can be used for various purposes, such as purchasing in-game items, bidding for rewards, or participating in management decisions. Tokenomics design plays a crucial role in incentivizing player participation and maintaining the long-term sustainability of the gaming economy. The combination of blockchain, NFT, and smart contracts in GameFi projects creates a new paradigm in the gaming industry where players have full ownership and control over their in-game assets, and economic incentives are integrated into the gameplay. This enhances the gaming experience and lets players earn real money for their in-game actions. Gaming blockchains Integrating blockchain technology into the gaming industry, known as GameFi, has revolutionized how players interact and how they are rewarded for playing time or achievements. The gaming industry has blockchains such as SKL, WAX, PORTAL, and VANRY. These are the leading gaming blockchains, each unique product with advantages and vast opportunities in the fast-growing GameFi sphere. SKL SKL is a blockchain designed to create high-performance dApps to provide zero-gas scaling for players and solve the problems of high transaction fees and slow transaction processing on the network. SKL allows developers to create unique games with instant transactions, which is a priority in game creation, as well as correct operation of smart contracts and improving the quality of gameplay through the speed of the exchange processes and receiving game objects in the game. WAX WAX is a specially designed blockchain for trading virtual items and digital collectibles, making it a popular and high priority for developers to create blockchain games and NFT markets. The WAX protocol allows in-game objects to be created, bought, and sold, providing a seamless way for gamers to monetize their gaming activity. In addition, WAX can interact with the Binance Smart Chain, making it possible to transfer NFTs between players on different blockchains. PORTAL PORTAL is a cross-chain gaming system that connects all games into a single WEB3 network and establishes a connection between blockchains. PORTAL is designed to simplify moving players between games using a single account, making the platform convenient and exclusive. The problem that this project addresses is the barriers related to the fragmentation of gaming ecosystems. VANRY Vanar Chain is a blockchain ecosystem designed explicitly for the games industry and intended to provide developers with tools and modules to facilitate the transition of games to Web3. A key feature of VANRY is its focus on direct integration with blockchain, which was a crucial factor in attracting Google Cloud. This capability allows established brands to master Web3 efficiently. The Vanar Chain ecosystem is also supported by NVIDIA, Phoenix Grounds Studio, and Revolut. Promising projects in GameFi: Mavia The Heroes of Mavia project is a blockchain-based strategy game that allows players to compete in battles for cryptocurrency rewards while developing and improving their bases worldwide. Service Studios developed the game, which is set on an exceptionally designed island called Mavia. One of the critical aspects of Heroes of Mavia is the ability to earn natural financial resources, mainly through the use of a cryptocurrency called Ruby. Players can collect Ruby and other valuable resources, such as Gold and Oil, which are essential to the gameplay. Integrating blockchain and Play-to-Earn (P2E) mechanics creates new opportunities for players to enjoy their favorite game and earn additional income. An NFT trading option also allows players to buy, sell, and exchange game assets such as Land, Heroes, and Statues. In addition, Heroes of Mavia is backed by Binance Labs, confirming the project's potential and prospects in the GameFi sector. According to the vesting, most of the coins are still unlocked, and full unlocking for all users will come in November 2029. After researching the blockchain, 85.59% of the coins are locked and waiting to be unlocked in the wallets of investors, team members, and enablers. This implies that the project is focused on long-term investing, and investment funds will pump up the price closer to their full unlocks! Overall, Heroes of Mavia is an innovative GameFi project that combines exciting gameplay, the ability to earn natural financial resources, and integration with blockchain to attract the attention of players and investors. Shrap Shrap is the first innovative blockchain-enabled FPS (First-Person Shooter) game developed on the Avalanche blockchain. The game allows players to buy, sell, and trade digital assets, including in-game items and characters. Shrap has caught the attention of investors and players due to its unique concept that combines elements of a classic FPS with blockchain capabilities. Players can earn rewards for participating in various in-game events and contests, allowing them to increase the value of their digital assets. Sharp also allows users to create and sell user-generated content, which opens up new opportunities for players to express themselves creatively and create a sustainable economy within the game. Shrap has successfully raised $37.5M in funding, which confirms investors' interest in promising GameFi projects. Over the past week, Wintermute has become more active and has started funding its own wallets on exchanges. This is a direct sign of the upward movement that will be provided by its software to manage the coin's market price! It is currently a great price to buy with the expectation of a long-term investment. Karate Project Karate is a groundbreaking platform that combines full-contact karate with CGI and Epic Games' Unreal Engine. It gathers top athletes, including Olympic medalists and national champions, who compete in various weight classes. Karate Combat uses blockchain technology to create a secure and innovative asset management and decision-making system. Users can earn rewards by playing various karate-related games and completing in-game challenges. Within the game, the voting system allows one to earn and manage digital assets using the $KARATE cryptocurrency and influence the project's development. Karate is also getting ready to move up soon. According to the latest significant transactions, Wintermute has received a sufficient portion to manage the price. It is also worth noting that the project team and their investors have more than 90% of the momentum issue concentrated on their asset wallets. This will make it relatively easy to manage the price of the coin! Karate Combat successfully fuses sports and entertainment with blockchain, creating new opportunities for interaction between athletes, fans, and investors. Now is a good opportunity to buy this asset, as investors, enablers, and the team will add even more assets to their wallets and try their best to pump up the price for their future unlocks. GMEE GMEE is part of Animoca Brands, a major player in the blockchain-based gaming industry. It is backed by Binance Labs, which gives the project significant credibility. GMEE is a token to access and manage an entire gaming platform aimed at merging the world of gaming and decentralized finance (DeFi). It runs on a blockchain that allows players to earn, trade, and own digital assets with real value in a decentralized and more democratic manner. One of the critical aspects of GMEE is its integration with the Telegram platform, making it the first Telegram Gamefi token. This allows for a large and active user base of over 1 million daily active users, which is a testament to the popularity and growth potential of the project. The fact that GMEE is Telegram's largest gaming community further emphasizes its importance in the GameFi space. In addition, GMEE aims to bring blockchain to millions of gamers through its mobile gaming platform. This approach makes blockchain technology more accessible to a broader audience, especially those new to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. By offering a seamless and convenient experience, GMEE can contribute to the mass adoption of blockchain gaming. GMEE is a significant player in the blockchain-based gaming industry, backed by reputable organizations and offering a unique and accessible gaming experience. Its focus on mobile gaming and integration with the Telegram platform sets it apart from other projects in this field. Investors also have a large amount of circulating issuance, allowing them to manage the asset's price easily. The end of unlockings is coming in March 2025, just as we approach the top of the bull cycle (September 2025). It is worth considering for investment for no more than one year. Conclusion The GameFi market is projected to grow from $12.8 billion in 2023 to $126.3 billion by 2032 at % compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.0%. This growth is attributed to the growing adoption of blockchain technology and increasing interest in blockchain-based games. Despite a decline in the number of new Web3-based game launches in 2023 compared to previous years, the market still shows high interest in blockchain-based game development, indicating a bright future for the sector. Advancements in blockchain technology are expected to address scalability and efficiency issues, making GameFi platforms more accessible and user-friendly. The emergence of Layer 2 and Layer 3 solutions such as Polygon and Immutable X indicates a growing trend to improve user experience and attract more users from Web 2 games to Web 3 games. Moreover, the future of GameFi is characterized by a potential increase in institutional interest and the entry of established gaming giants into this space. This may lead to more complex games with better gameplay and sustainable economic models. Nevertheless, challenges remain, such as the need to balance economic incentives and engaging gameplay and the ongoing problem of market volatility. Despite these challenges, GameFi's future looks promising, and significant growth and transformation are expected. Best regards EXCAVO
Long
by EXCAVO
22
Trading opportunity. What to buy?In the crypto market, the largest assets are currently experiencing similar situations. On the charts, we can see that six assets have formed sideways trends. Prices for all six assets are currently at the bottom of these sideways trends. For four assets, the price temporarily dropped below the lower boundary of the sideways trend, where liquidity from sellers was collected, but then returned to the sideways trend. The prices of five assets, excluding BNB, are in zones where it makes sense to consider buying. The most interesting potential is with DOGE and AVAX. One possible strategy to consider is buying four assets that you like the most.
Long
by AlexeyWolf
16
Factors Driving Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Up Analysis: Factors Driving Gold Prices Up Here is why we think it will go up (FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS) Weak NFP Report and Potential Fed Rate Cuts: The recent Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report came in weaker than expected, signaling sluggish job growth in the United States. This unexpected weakness has raised speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth. Impact of Weak NFP Report: The NFP report provides insights into the health of the US economy, and a weaker-than-expected report suggests economic challenges. Which helps the fight against inflation. Potential Fed Policy Response: In response to disappointing economic indicators, such as the weak NFP report, the Federal Reserve may consider implementing monetary policy measures to support economic recovery. One such measure could be a reduction in interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending, thereby bolstering economic activity. Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often viewed as a safe haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and inflation. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can further enhance gold's appeal, as lower interest rates typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Here is what to watch out for that might stop it from going up: Market Response and Federal Reserve Policy Decisions Market participants should closely monitor any signals or announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, as they can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, gold prices. If it becomes more likely for the Federal Reserve to not cut rates, well expect gold prices to plummet. Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Developments: It's important to stay attuned to key economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments that could impact gold markets. Any shifts in these factors could alter the trajectory of gold prices. (TECHNICAL ANALYSIS) Trade setup explained: Take-Profit is set at 2344 due to a strong resistance line there (see white horizontal line) Stop-Loss is set at 2311 which is right under 2315, 2315 has been showing stronger support. Conclusion: The weak NFP report and the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have contributed to upward pressure on gold prices. However, market participants should remain vigilant and assess the evolving economic landscape and its impact on gold markets. By monitoring economic indicators and central bank policies, investors can make informed decisions in the dynamic world of gold trading. Like always use proper risk-management. Greetings, Zila
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
32
The TradingView Show - Must-see Charts with TradeStationHello to all the global traders! We're live with David Russell, TradeStation's Global Head of Markets. He's also the one who publishes the research and analysis from the official TradeStation account on TradingView. Follow them here: www.tradingview.com In today's show, we're discussing the most important charts, interesting trades, and providing education to all traders. What's on David's mind? Interest rates, earnings, and big moves happening across equity markets from Apple to Goldman Sachs, Bitcoin, and copper stocks like FCX. We look forward to meeting all the traders out there and thanks for watching. Ask questions in the comments section, share your best insights, and be sure to subscribe to our future shows, all happening on TradingView and with our partners, influencers, sponsors, and global community. This show is strictly for education and entertainment. Never advice! Look first, then leap! - TradingView Important disclaimers for ETFs: www.tradestation.com Important disclaimers for options: www.theocc.com All other important disclaimers: www.tradestation.com
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TradingView
10
Tesla among top 10 losers. Next what?Tesla is the 7th worst performer YTD in the Nasdaq-100. It is the 11th worst performer in the S&P 500. The stock stands 28% lower. Still, after reaching its lowest level on 22/April, the stock has rallied a remarkable 30%. On 24/April, the stock rallied 12% after the positive earnings call. On 29/April, the stock jumped another 15% after the announcement of the Baidu ( HKEX:9888 ) partnership. Yet in the longer term, outlook remains cloudy as margin compression owing to fierce competition from Chinese EV makers and the wider EV industry slowdown. MUSK'S CHINA VISIT LEADS TO BAIDU DEAL Last Sunday, Elon Musk flew to China on a surprise visit. The last minute visit led to speculation over a push to launch full self driving (FSD) in China. Persons close to the matter stated that Musk was expected to discuss the rollout of FSD software and permission to transfer data overseas, as reported in Reuters . One of the key hold-ups for the rollout of FSD in China has been access to map data. Musk’s recent trip seems to have addressed that as Tesla announced a partnership with Baidu for map data access. While, Musk has long claimed that Teslas will be able to run FSD without map data, this will allow them to roll-out the offering much sooner and boost the slowing revenue in one of their leading markets in China. FSD has been a recent revenue driver for Tesla. In 2024, Siena Capital analysts estimated that Tesla recognized almost USD 700 million in revenue, which represents 4.3% of their automotive revenue after stripping regulatory credits. BYD PARTNERSHIP Another strategic partnership that has helped boost investor sentiment at Tesla has been the strategic partnership with BYD ( HKEX:1211 ). While both companies are major competitors, BYD recently overtook Tesla as the largest EV manufacturer in terms of overall vehicle sales (including hybrids). However, the fierce competition has also taken a toll on both companies as it has led to price cuts to win over more customers. That’s why a technology-sharing partnership between the two companies is positive. While, they continue to compete, the partnership – specifically related to the use of BYD’s LFP battery technology in certain low-cost Tesla models – remains a positive for Tesla as it allows them to diversify their battery supply chain, reduce production costs, and enhance range for their lower-cost models. LOW-COST MODELS COMING SOONER THAN EXPECTED A recent hurdle for Tesla has been delay behind the upcoming low-cost Model 2 vehicle which plays a pivotal role in Tesla’s growth strategy. According to a Reuters report , Tesla had opted to cancel or indefinitely postpone plans for the upcoming Model 2. Instead, it would focus its attention on Robo-Taxis. The low-cost car represented the next phase of Musk’s long-term master plan to produce affordable electric vehicles through manufacturing process improvements. Fears were that fierce competition in the low-cost category by Chinese manufacturers would make Tesla’s efforts unfeasible. Yet, Elon Musk disputed the Reuters report and at the Q1 earnings investor call, it was verified. The Model 2 strategy is still on track. In fact, it may come sooner than expected at the end of 2024. Musk stated that Tesla was accelerating the launch of more affordable models that will be available to produce on its existing manufacturing lines. Tesla aims to fully utilize its current production capacity towards these efforts and grow manufacturing 50% over 2023 before they start investing in new manufacturing lines. Additionally, the robo-taxi push is also underway. Elon Musk stated that Tesla will launch its long-awaited robo-taxi product as soon as 8/August/2024. The autonomous driving robo-taxis will earn revenue for their owners. Moreover, owners will be able to add their Tesla's to the robo-taxi shared fleet with just one click on the Tesla app. BEARISH CLOUDS PERSIST Despite these recent developments, the outlook for Tesla remains undeniably cloudy. At its Q1 earnings, Tesla reported dismal results. But it’s not just Tesla which is struggling, it’s the wider EV industry. EARNINGS SUMMARY Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report released on 23/April revealed a challenging quarter marked by margin compression and a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales, influenced by strategic price cuts and broader economic factors. Financially, Tesla reported a reduction in its automotive gross margin to 17.4%, down from previous quarter, reflecting the impact of significant price reductions across its model lineup intended to stimulate demand amid a softening global market. These price adjustments, while successful in driving a short-term uptick in sales volumes, did not fully counterbalance the revenue per unit loss, leading to an overall revenue of $21.3 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, both figures below analyst expectations. Quarterly revenue and deliveries were the lowest since 2022. One of the bright spots has been Tesla’s efforts to control costs. Not only did the company recently announce layoffs. It also stated that it would slow the growth of its Supercharger network to bring costs under control. Moreover, investors were not as concerned about the concerning financials following the investor call where Musk re-affirmed Tesla’s long-term strategy while maintaining that Tesla would remain lean by producing the new lineup on existing manufacturing lines, assuaging fears of spiraling costs. Critical to note that it is not just Tesla which struggled in Q1. BYD also reported that its profits fell 47% YoY. Vehicle sales also slowed QoQ. It is the wider industry that is experiencing a slowdown. Unfortunately for Tesla, margin compression is more concerning for it compared to its Chinese competitors. Particularly as Chinese manufacturers are able to keep costs lower with help from government subsidies. Not only does the Chinese government offer direct subsidies to manufacturers, it also offers subsidies for EV buyers in China which has led to a boom in EV sales, which has benefited Chinese EV manufacturers. Economic slowdown from high interest rates and a domestic slowdown in China may keep EV sales subdued for some time. In which case, Tesla would be forced to continue with its price cuts which would continue to pressure margins. TESLA'S FINANCES STRAINED UNTIL AFFORDABLE MODEL LAUNCH With recent positive news, Tesla stock has recovered sharply. Yet, it remains one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 YTD. Bearish clouds persist for Tesla as margin compression continues due to competitive price cuts by Tesla. Amid an industry-wide sales slowdown, Tesla may be forced to continue with its strategy to offer price discounts on its cars, keeping its margins pressured. Moreover, Tesla continues to face pressure from low-cost Chinese EVs until it can launch its own low cost models. While, Tesla’s new models are expected sooner than expected, they are still several quarters away. In the meantime, fundamental factors are likely to continue impacting Tesla’s profitability and subsequently its stock.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by mintdotfinance
22
An Exciting Insight into FXOpen's New Hong Kong-listed Stock CFDLook East! An Exciting Insight into FXOpen's New Hong Kong-listed Stock CFDs Hong Kong has built up a gilt-edged reputation as one of the world's most reputable financial market centres. The city of Hong Kong enjoyed a unique position for many years. It is situated in the Asia Pacific region, very close to Shenzhen in mainland China, whilst being a global investment and banking leviathan. Hong Kong's stature as the 'New York of the East' alluded to the investment banking sector, global institutional trading venues and currency clearing capacity, which stood it out as a gateway to the world for Chinese companies as well as a gateway to the Eastern markets for European and American financial giants. Today, Hong Kong remains an interesting prospect; its stock markets are heavily focused on local APAC and mainland Chinese corporations, with a degree of volatility present ever since Hong Kong completed its transition to full Chinese governance. FXOpen has taken a further step in its commitment to providing access to the most poignant instruments across the world's financial markets and has now added* 29 stocks listed on the Hong Kong market. Today, we take a look at the most popular among these new instruments. 1) Tencent Holdings Limited HK Just a few kilometres away from the classically elegant city of Hong Kong is Shenzhen, the first Chinese metropolis that is reached after a short walk across the border into mainland China from Hong Kong. Shenzhen is a modern, plate-glass showcase of Chinese technological prowess and is home to Tencent Holdings Ltd, which is one of the largest multi-faceted technology companies in the world. In China, email is long obsolete, and everyone from CEOs of large corporations to teenagers in school communicates using either QQ or WeChat messengers, both of which are products of Tencent. Whilst Western authorities and business moguls wrangle over a potential deal between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard, disapproving of its size in which it would potentially create a gaming monopoly, Tencent dwarfs both firms in the video gaming industry. Tencent is one of the largest video gaming companies in the world. The company also produces smartphone applications as well as actual smartphones, payment technology, music streaming software, e-commerce platforms and advertising. Since it crossed the $500 billion valuation mark six years ago, Tencent has become the most highly capitalised company in all of China. Given the nation's industrial prowess, that is quite some accolade. 2) China Construction Bank Corporation HK Hong Kong's division of the China Construction Bank is a vital strategic outpost for the financial giant as it represents the firm's international business arm. The entity which became China Construction Bank HK has an illustrious 112-year history in the territory and was the first Chinese-owned bank to ever be established in Hong Kong under its original guise of Bank of Canton. Throughout the British era, the bank underwent many changes, including a stint as Bank of America in the early 1990s. In 2006, it was acquired by China Construction Bank, which is one of the four largest banks in Mainland China. Listed on Hong Kong's main market, the bank's stock tends to trade under the 5 HKD mark, making it accessible for many investors with a low entry barrier. 3) BYD Company Limited HK Among motoring enthusiasts and the car manufacturing establishment of the West, relatively new entrants into a long-established and conservative industry reliant on brand heritage and decades of engineering prowess or motorsport pedigree have often, over the years, been met with derision. BYD, one of China's most prominent motor vehicle manufacturers, is no exception. Motoring events, boardrooms at large motor manufacturers and special interest internet forums for car enthusiasts have often been awash with derogatory remarks or humorous quips writing off Chinese cars as somehow of inferior quality, the preserve of the uninformed or the transportation choice of the price-led who simply do not care what they drive. Well, it is not funny anymore. China has for many decades manufactured vehicles for its home market and done so very successfully, and BYD is one of the giants which produces cars, motorcycles, buses, trucks and construction equipment and is now exporting such vehicles worldwide. More recently, BYD joined the electric car battle for supremacy, and its modern, technologically advanced cars are selling well in countries other than China and competing against established European, American, and Japanese brands. Listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, BYD's stock is of interest to investors who relish the company's expansion of marketing to an international audience. 4) Xiaomi Corporation HK Apple and Samsung may have dominated the smartphone hardware market in most regions of the world for almost two decades, but in China, things are somewhat different. In terms of the internet and the infrastructure that surrounds it, China is a world of its own. Most of the internet sites and services that are commonplace in other regions of the world are blocked in China, and China has its own highly sophisticated internet ecosystem, which relies on home-grown platforms, which are veritable giants. For this reason, Chinese smartphones are dominant, and Xiaomi is one of them. Indeed, Xiaomi's smartphone manufacturing capacity is so large that it's considered one of the largest manufacturers of smartphones in the world. More recently, Apple and Samsung have regained their crown, with Xiaomi in third place, but it is clear that these relatively new competitors from China are serious contenders in this established brand-sensitive market. The company operates in many sectors of the electronics industry, including computer software, television sets, drones, smart home equipment, household appliances and hardware, and even produces technology for the automotive industry. What is perhaps fascinating is that Xiaomi was only founded 14 years ago, yet it is vast, eclipsing electronics companies in other countries that have existed since Thomas Edison first discovered electricity. 5) Baidu Inc. HK Sticking with the internet theme, Baidu is next up. Baidu is often viewed by global pundits as the 'Google of China' as it is the basis for access to every area of internet services and online information in China. Google does not serve China, and most of the websites and online services that are in widespread use in other nations are not available in China, with a Baidu-orientated equivalent being available instead. Based in Beijing, Baidu is one of the largest internet and AI companies in the world, and is not only a mainstay of daily life for every Chinese citizen but is also a resource highly relied upon by the Chinese government's internet services division which monitors and controls activities in the country. China has the most sophisticated internet firewall in the world, which prevents access to many global sites and ensures almost total dependence on Chinese internet infrastructure. 6) Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Ltd. HK Ping An is a widely recognised name across China, mostly due to its core activity as a retail banking giant which provides personal and business banking services as well as retail trading accounts. The company operates across more sectors than banking, however, and is actively involved in venture capital investment, especially in technology and internet-related firms offering financial products or developing financial technology, as well as more traditional areas of the financial services world, such as pensions and insurance. Ping An’s insurance division has a listed entity in Hong Kong whose shares have more recently been trading under the 40 HKD mark, making it an interesting instrument that has enjoyed more robust performance in the past. 7) CITIC Securities Company Limited HK It is one of China's most comprehensive investment banks. The company operates across the Chinese market in a similar vector to that of the giants of Wall Street across North America. Founded in 1995, the company provides services across the underwriting, research, brokerage, asset management, wealth management, and investment advisory sectors and is another fascinating Chinese pillar of strength given that it is only 29 years old compared with its similar-sized counterparts in the West which in some cases have been established since the days of the explorations to the new world in the 17th century. Over the past month, CITIC Securities HK stock has been sliding considerably, but given the overall size of the company itself and its intrinsic value to China's government-controlled financial markets system, it is interesting indeed. 8) Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited HK The construction industry in China has been leading the world for many years as a reference point for incredible efficiency and ingenious city planning. It has been possible to transform previously rural backwaters in central provinces into ultra-modern, highly productive cities with diversified industrial bases and luxurious living standards within just a matter of a few years. Multi-use buildings, high-speed trains capable of over 300km/h connecting these cities to other hives of activity across the country, nuclear power stations and giant commercial and residential real estate investment trends have punctuated China’s remarkable growth over the past two decades. However, there has been some over-exposure and, more recently, concern over the sustainability of the real estate market in China. Cement manufacturing has been a vital source of material for such a huge development boom; however, in February this year, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited HK stock hit 1-year lows. An interesting move, considering that China is the largest economic superpower in the world and its production capacity remains on the increase; hence, manufacturing facilities and towns to support them may well continue to be built. 9) China Mobile Limited HK China Mobile is a telecommunications giant, which is interesting as a corporate entity due to its major shareholder being the Chinese government. State ownership, or majority shareholding by the state, is common among telecommunications and media entities in China, and China Mobile is the world's largest telecommunications network by number of subscribers and the largest telecommunications company in the world by revenue. That is quite some feat. Although it is a Chinese company these days, its origins are actually in Hong Kong as it was founded in 1997 in Hong Kong as China Telecom (Hong Kong) Ltd. China Mobile is yet another Chinese corporate giant that has risen to enormity in a relatively short time, and its stock is listed on the Hong Kong exchange, with buoyant performance in recent months. Whether one is looking to gain exposure to China's leading technology companies or the region's robust financial sector, these stocks present a varied array of trading opportunities within one of the globe's most dynamic markets. *FXOpen is adding Hong Kong stocks, which will take effect according to the approval of each specific regulator. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
HKEX:1810
by FXOpen
3
FTSE 100 : HIGH IN THE SKY- The market still trades above a bullish trend line since mid-February 2024, strongly helped by a decreasing Pound Sterling. The mid-term trend is bullish for UK equities. - Since the 3rd impact on its bullish trendline at the end of last week, the market has rallied to an hall-time high above 8,000pts. Since the impact on the 8,200pts mark, we can notice a slowdown of the short-term bullish acceleration. Indeed, new highs are registered with less and less strength, a situation clearly confirmed with the bearish divergence from the MACD indicator. Very short-term moving averages remain bullish, acting as dynamic support, while the market currently fails to clear the 8,200pts level for a second time in a row. - The mid-term situation stays bearish for the market. However, on a very short-term view, all leads to a market correction. The bullish trend slowdown taking place in uncharted territory may be the sign that some investors want to take some profit out. If that happens to be proven in the next few session, the market will be likely to test the newly established floor around 8,045pts, with 8,152pts and 8,112pts as intermediate support zones, before registering new highs. Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:UK100
by ActivTrades
5
Technical Analysis: USD/EUR Exchange RateAs of the latest trading sessions, the USD/EUR currency pair displays a complex interaction of technical indicators and price patterns, suggesting a cautious yet potentially bullish outlook. We will break down the technical analysis using various tools and patterns, integrating recent market news into our forecast. Ichimoku Cloud Analysis: The price is currently positioned below the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart, indicating a bearish sentiment. However, the cloud ahead appears to be thinning, suggesting that bearish momentum may be waning. A break above the cloud could be a significant bullish signal. For traders, a definitive close above the cloud might represent a buying opportunity, targeting the first resistance level at approximately 0.9400, as suggested by the Pivot Point analysis. Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: The price has recently tested the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential overbought conditions. A retraction towards the middle band, currently around 0.9240, could provide a more conservative entry point for buyers. The convergence of the 20-SMA with the middle Bollinger Band adds credence to this support zone. A drop below the 0.9200 level, however, may indicate increasing selling pressure, suggesting an exit or short-selling opportunity. Fibonacci Retracement: The Fibonacci retracement levels highlight key support and resistance areas. The recent price rebound from the 0.618 level at 0.9120 is indicative of underlying buying interest. Maintaining above this level is critical for bullish prospects. A decisive break below the 0.786 level at 0.9059 could negate the bullish scenario and point towards the 1.0 extension at 0.8980 as the next support. RSI, Stochastic, and MACD: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 55 level, neither overbought nor oversold, which aligns with a neutral market bias in the short term. The Stochastic Oscillator, however, is retreating from overbought levels, signaling a potential pullback. Conversely, the MACD histogram is shrinking on the bearish side, indicating that downside momentum is losing steam. Market News Context: Recent news highlights a drop in the US dollar ahead of the FOMC meeting and employment data release. Investors will closely watch these events as they could trigger volatility and provide directional cues for the pair. Price Prediction and Trade Strategy: Speculatively, if the pair maintains support above the 0.9120 level, we forecast an uptrend towards 0.9400, with a possible extension to 0.9461, as marked by R1 Pivot Point resistance. Traders might consider long positions on dips near 0.9240, with a stop-loss order below the 0.9059 Fibonacci level. Conversely, should the price action break below 0.9059, a bearish target at 0.8980 could become plausible, where traders might consider short positions with a stop-loss order above the 0.9120 level. Trade Entry and Exit Levels: Conservative Buy Zone: Around the confluence of the 20-SMA and middle Bollinger Band at 0.9240. Aggressive Buy Trigger: A decisive close above the Ichimoku cloud. Sell/Short Entry: Break below the 0.9059 Fibonacci level. Stop-Loss Placement: Just below 0.9059 for longs, and just above 0.9120 for shorts. Take-Profit Targets: 0.9400 (initial bullish target), extended to 0.9461 (R1 Pivot level).
by AxiomEx
27
Meta Shares Decline 15% Despite Strong Earnings reportTech Giants Experience Significant Decline, Erasing $300 Billion Amid Meta's Weak Guidance and Q1 Stagflation Concerns During a volatile trading session, the combined market capitalization of the top seven tech companies experienced a sharp decline exceeding $300 billion within the first hour of trading on Thursday. This downturn was primarily triggered by Meta Platforms Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:META ) announcement of a revenue outlook for the upcoming quarter that fell short of market expectations, alongside apprehensions stemming from the release of first-quarter gross domestic product data. Key Developments: Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META exceeded analyst forecasts by reporting first-quarter revenue of $36.45 billion, marking a notable 27% increase year-over-year. Additionally, earnings per share reached $4.71, surpassing the anticipated figure of $4.32. However, investor sentiment soured following Meta's issuance of a cautious guidance for the next quarter, leading to a retreat in the company's stock price. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF NASDAQ:MAGS fell 3%. Treasury yields, especially for the two-year note, have risen above 5%, indicating increasing investor concern about inflation and its possible impact on future Federal Reserve decisions. This concern led to a widespread sell-off in the bond market, with notable declines in long-term treasury ETFs, including the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ( NASDAQ:TLT ), which fell by 0.8%. Meta Shares Decline 15% Despite Strong Earnings Report Meta reported robust earnings that surpassed both consensus and whisper estimates. Despite these strong results, Meta's stock experienced a 15% decline. This downturn is commonly attributed to substantial investments in AI technology and remarks by CEO Mark Zuckerberg regarding the non-immediate profitability of these expenditures. While momentum-driven analysts might overlook this, seasoned analysts are aware that returns on AI investments will not be immediate. Key Reasons for Meta's Stock Decline Ahead of Meta's earnings announcement, Wall Street's positioning was overwhelmingly positive. This positioning often leads to contrary market movements. Understanding this Wall Street dynamic is crucial for maximizing returns from the market. Due to their significant implications, these mechanics are often closely guarded by financial professionals. Impact of Other Notable Earnings on Market Sentiment: IBM Common Stock: NYSE:IBM Prior to its earnings report, there was significant anticipation around IBM due to its AI initiatives. However, the earnings fell short of whisper numbers, leading to a roughly 10% drop in its stock price. It is worth noting that The Arora Report capitalized on this by taking a short position, securing profits shortly thereafter. Caterpillar Inc. : NYSE:CAT Reported earnings that were below expectations. Merck & Co Inc: NYSE:MRK Surpassed whisper numbers with its earnings report. Market Reactions to Recent Economic Indicators: The latest auction of $70 billion in five-year Treasuries saw weaker demand, though it is not indicative of a larger economic issue: High yield: 4.659% (When-Issued: 4.655%) Bid-to-cover ratio: 2.39 Indirect bids: 65.7% Direct bids: 19.2% Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is selling stocks in the early trade. In gold trading, the momentum crowd exhibited volatile behavior, while the smart money remained inactive. The SPDR Gold Trust ( AMEX:GLD ) remains the most popular gold ETF, and the iShares Silver Trust ( AMEX:SLV ) for silver. Similar patterns were observed in the oil market, with volatile trading by the momentum crowd and inactivity from the smart money. The primary ETF for oil is the United States Oil ETF. For further details on long-term ratings, please refer to our comprehensive reports on gold, silver, and oil markets.
NASDAQ:META
by SroshMayi
18
EURNZD - Seize Profitable Opportunity with Anti-Shark PatternEURNZD is currently exhibiting the formation of an Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) coupled with the presence of a significant Trendline, indicating potential bearish momentum on the horizon. This analysis delves into the technical factors influencing the currency pair's movement and proposes strategic entry and exit points for traders to consider. Pattern Identification: Anti-Shark Harmonic (XABCD) with Trendline Confluence The observed Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) on the 1-hour time frame suggests a potential reversal in the prevailing trend. This pattern comprises distinct points: X, A, B, C, and D, with Point D marking a crucial juncture for market participants. Additionally, the convergence of a Trendline further emphasizes the significance of Point D as a potential turning point. Key Levels: Resistance Identified Point D aligns strategically with a key resistance level, reinforcing the likelihood of bearish pressure manifesting from this point. Traders should remain vigilant as price action nears this critical area, as it often serves as a catalyst for significant market movements. Entry Strategy: Entry: 1.80900 Stop Loss: 1.81370 A prudent entry point at 1.80900 aligns with the anticipated bearish momentum following the completion of the Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern. To mitigate risk, a stop loss set at 1.81370 provides a buffer against adverse price fluctuations, safeguarding capital in the event of unexpected market developments. Take Profit Targets: TP-1: 1.80400 TP-2: 1.79900 TP-3: 1.79436 Strategically positioned take profit targets offer traders opportunities to capitalize on potential downward movements. These targets, set at 1.80400, 1.79900, and 1.79436 respectively, correspond with key support levels where price action may encounter barriers or exhibit signs of reversal. Conclusion: In conclusion, the technical analysis of EURNZD on the 1-hour time frame indicates a favorable setup for bearish trading opportunities. With the formation of an Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern and confluence with a Trendline, coupled with the proximity to a key resistance level, traders are advised to consider short positions with careful risk management. By adhering to the outlined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels, traders can navigate the market dynamics with greater confidence and precision.
Short
by trading_jupiter
17
Tesla's upcoming Robotaxi launch: stock trading idea 8/04/24Tesla Inc. is gearing up for a significant reveal on 8 August this year, as it plans to introduce its much-anticipated robotaxi. This move comes at a time when the company is navigating sluggish sales and increasing competition from more affordable Chinese electric vehicles. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, announced on his social media platform, X, the upcoming unveiling of the robotaxi. Tesla has long been ambitious about its vision of a fully autonomous vehicle, first presented to investors in 2019. Recently, Tesla has rolled out the latest iteration of its driver assistance software, marketed as Full Self-Driving (FSD), to its consumer base. Given this backdrop, let's delve into Tesla Inc.'s stock (TSLA) to scout for potential trading opportunities: Analysing the Daily (D1) chart, a support level is identified at 160.51 USD, with resistance at 182.87 USD. A breakout above this resistance level could signify the start of an uptrend. On the Hourly (H1) chart, initiating long positions becomes attractive upon breaching the 182.87 USD mark, targeting a short-term objective of 205.06 USD. For those looking at a medium-term investment, maintaining a long position until reaching 233.87 USD could be viable. — Ideas and other content presented on this page should not be considered as guidance for trading or an investment advice. RoboMarkets bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading opinions described in these analytical reviews. The material presented and the information contained herein is for information purposes only and in no way should be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law L. 87(I)/2017 of the Republic of Cyprus or any other form of personal advice or recommendation, which relates to certain types of transactions with certain types of financial instruments. Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66.02% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by RoboMarkets
20
(NASDAQ:TESLA) STOCK UNDER $100.00?WATCH SUPPORT LEVELS TO PAY ATTENTIO! Short Term Price Target $155.27 to 146.54 1. Tesla's Stock Price Below $100.00: The fact that Tesla's stock could drop below $100.00 suggests a significant bearish sentiment in the market. Investors may be concerned about the company's performance or broader economic factors impacting the stock. 2. Possibility of Dropping Below Support #1 and Ascending Support Line: If Tesla's stock breaks below Support #1 and the ascending support line, it indicates increasing selling pressure and a potential shift in the trend. This could be a signal for traders to anticipate further downside movements. 3. Potential Decline to $118.68 - $91.10 Range, Potentially Breaching Support #2: Breaking below the ascending support line increases the likelihood of a decline to levels between $118.68 and $91.10. Breaching Support #2 could intensify the downward momentum, leading to further losses for Tesla's stock. 4. Gap Fill at $75.69: Should the price breach Support #2, there's a chance that Tesla's stock might fill the gap observed on January 25 and 26, 2023, at $75.69. Gap fills often act as significant support or resistance levels and could influence future price movements. 5. Potential for Return to Pre-COVID Levels: Whether Tesla's stock could return to pre-COVID levels depends on various factors such as the company's fundamentals, market sentiment, and broader economic conditions. While it's possible for stocks to recover from downturns, it would likely require positive catalysts and a favorable operating environment for Tesla to regain its pre-COVID price levels. In summary, the outlook for Tesla's stock appears bearish in the near term, with potential further declines and a possibility of returning to levels observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, long-term prospects would depend on the company's ability to address underlying challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities. NFA PLEASE, DYOR/MYOD!! Hope to See your Likes 👍 to Support My Work To Follow All My Ideas, Go to My Profile and Select the Follow Green button 😁 Please Re-Evaluate Before Make Your Last Decisions Check my Profile for more.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by InsightMarket
44
Bitcoin: is price set to get cheaper or.....?Today's focus: BTCUSD Pattern – Range, seller test. Support – 62,000 area Resistance – 73,000 area Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at BTC on the daily. With sellers continuing to check buyers, it continues to look like we could see a new move at support. But for now, buyers continue to hold firm from around the 62,000 area. We have run over a few scenarios. Could we see a move-through support to test the next lower Fibb point? Or will we see support contnue to hold the current range pattern? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSDShort
by Eightcap
23
Weekly Technical Analysis 15/04/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Germany 40 is exhibiting a corrective phase within an overall bullish trend, with the price now standing at 17,966, which is slightly below the VWAP of 18,223. The index has found new support at 17,807 and is encountering resistance at 18,638. The RSI is at 45, indicating a cooling off of the previous bullish momentum. UK 100 is still bullish but has entered a corrective phase. The price has seen a slight decline to 7,967, positioning it just above the VWAP of 7,935. The support level is now 7,890, while resistance lies at 7,980. With an RSI of 64, there’s a slight dip in the bullish sentiment from before. Wall Street has taken a bearish turn and is in an impulsive phase. The price has dropped to 38,112, falling below the VWAP of 39,005. Support and resistance levels have been adjusted to 37,854 and 40,158, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 35, signalling a shift to bearish momentum. Brent Crude remains in a bullish and impulsive phase, with the price now at 89.47, above the VWAP of 88.18. Support has been established at 84.14, with resistance not far off at 92.21. An RSI of 61 indicates a marginal decrease in bullish momentum. Gold has sustained its bullish trend and is in an impulsive phase, with a price hike to 2,359, well over the VWAP of 2,275. The support level has been marked down to 2,130, and resistance has been found at 2,420. The RSI has risen to 70, suggesting a stronger bullish sentiment and an overbought condition. EUR/USD remains bearish but has shifted into an impulsive phase, with the price tumbling to 1.0658, below the VWAP of 1.0785. The support has been noted at 1.0648, with resistance at 1.0922. An RSI of 32 signifies a reduction in bearish sentiment. GBP/USD stays bearish and impulsive, with the price at 1.2466, below the VWAP of 1.2595. The support has been updated to 1.2460, with resistance at 1.2731. The RSI at 34 indicates a decrease in bearish momentum. USD/JPY continues in a bullish trend and remains impulsive, with the price slightly up at 153.84, above the VWAP of 151.86. The support level is 150.20, with resistance observed at 153.52. The RSI at 76 shows a modest decline in bullish momentum.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
3
Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy CostsIt is official. Inflation is back. But not everywhere. Food inflation is on the decline. All three major crops, Soybean, Wheat, and Corn have declined substantially. Bearish sentiments rings loud across agri with ample supplies combined with solid harvest expectations. Among crops, corn has fared best. Its prices have not declined as much. Corn outlook is positive given South American supply uncertainty and gasoline linked demand spike. Corn prices face downside risk from ample supply in the near term. Prices have the potential to spike during later part of the year due to supply uncertainty and higher consumption. Traders can deploy a calendar spread in CME Corn futures comprising of a short September 2024 Corn Futures (ZSU2024) and a long March 2025 Corn Futures (ZSH2025) to gain from shifting dynamics. RECORD US CROP WILL SUPPRESS NEAR TERM CORN PRICE The US produced a record 389.69 million MT of corn last year as per latest USDA figures. Massive production is a result of record high yield of 177.3 bushels per acre. Globally, corn production in the current marketing year is expected to reach a record 1,227 million MT, due to the US crop last year. Higher supply is expected to lead to a buildup in ending stocks. Stocks are expected to increase from 302.19 million MT to 318.28 million MT. This represents a buildup of almost 16 million MT. Ample supplies are a headwind to near term corn prices. USDA ESTIMATES MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC Global corn production forecasts by USDA may be too optimistic. Upcoming harvests from Brazil and Argentina may spring surprises to the downside. USDA’s forecast for the Brazil corn crop is currently at 124 million MT. Brazil’s national agricultural agency - CONAB - puts the harvest at 110.9 million MT as per their latest crop survey . The difference stems from USDA’s assumption of higher planted area. CONAB recently cut its estimate for planted area pointing to lower crop prices dissuading farmers from planting corn. Planting in Brazil is delayed from its usual schedule. USDA is also optimistic about the Argentinian crop. It reduced its forecast for Argentinian corn by 1 million MT to 55 million MT in the latest WASDE report. However, that is still optimistic given the ongoing spread of spiroplasma disease. Last week, Argentina’s Rosario Exchange slashed corn estimates to just 50.5 million MT from a previous forecast of 57 million MT citing crop loss linked with diseases. USDA estimates are 18 million MT higher than harvest forecasted by regional agencies across Brazil & Argentina. Corn supplies may end up being much tighter than the USDA is currently forecasting if harvests come softer than anticipated. ETHANOL PRODUCTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE CORN CONSUMPTION USDA increased its forecast for corn consumption for ethanol production by twenty-five million bushels (635k MT) in the latest WASDE report. With gasoline and crude prices on a tear, ethanol blending into gasoline is likely to remain elevated during the coming months driving corn demand. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) serves as another source of corn demand in 2024. The Biden Administration is set to release its primary climate model for SAF subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act in the “very near future”. While recent reports have stated that the model may be restrictive compared to corn-ethanol industry expectations, the subsidies will undoubtedly drive higher demand for corn-ethanol. CORN FUTURES CONTANGO IS STEEPENING Corn Futures term structure has become noticeably steeper over the past three months. Premium for dated contracts have increased. Specifically, corn delivery in later part of 2024 and early 2025 command higher premium. MARKET METRICS ARE TURNING LESS BEARISH FOR CORN CME Corn Options positions are currently skewed bullish with a put/call ratio of 0.84. Over the past week, bullish positioning has increased with large call option buildup on June (OZCN4) and December contracts (OZCZ4). Asset managers have also started to reduce net short positioning on CME Corn Futures since positioning reached its all-time low mid-February. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP South America corn supply remains uncertain even as the US delivers a record harvest. Corn prices will remain bearish in the near term amid ample supplies. Longer term, supply shocks and rising demand has the potential to send corn prices higher. This is evident from steepening contango in CME Corn Futures. To express the view on corn prices increasing towards the end of the year, traders can establish a calendar spread comprising of short position in September 2024 futures (ZCU2024) and a long position in March 2025 futures (ZCH2025). CME corn futures offer deep liquidity even for contracts in 2025 allowing such calendar spreads to be executed efficiently. A hypothetical trade setup comprising of the calendar spread consisting of short ZCU2024 and long ZCH2025 also offers margin benefits. The calendar spread position is margin efficient with the entire position requiring margin of just USD 350 as of 15/April/2024. This position not only benefits from the supply trend but also the seasonal trend in corn prices. Corn prices tend to rise from October through February due to seasonal factors. Between April to September, prices tend to decline. This hypothetical spread is supported by both trends. • Entry: 1.06185 (ZCH2025/ZCU2024 = 485/456.75 as of 12/April) • Target: 1.076 • Stop Loss: 1.052 • Profit at Target: USD 323 (Target price = 1.33% higher than Entry => Profit = 1.33% x notional = 1.33% x (485 x Contract Size) = 1.33% x (485 x 5000/100)) • Loss at Stop Loss: USD 225 (Stop level = 0.93% below entry => Loss = 0.93% x notional) • Reward to Risk: 1.44x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZCH2025
by mintdotfinance
8