Bitcoin & Ethereum Approaching Decisive Levels!In this video, I dive into the current status of Ethereum and Bitcoin. I discuss why both tokens are approaching decisive levels. Moreover, I also highlight what might happen in case Ethereum and Bitcoin can't manage to stay above these level.
Enjoy and let me know your thought!
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NVDA - Short Term Update - $118 Resistance - 08/15/2024NVDA is currently at the $118 resistance we discussed previously. I've moved that position to cash for the time being. Swinging some options in case we do get continuation to the upside, though. I'd like to see NVDA come back to $100 where I'd be buying back my equity but for now, just waiting to see what the price action does.
Short term upside targets if we break out of 118 would be 125, 130, 132.
To the downside, I'd see 112 as the first support, then 106 before ultimately seeing 100.
Taking profit felt good, now I will patiently wait for the market to do something on this historically bearish time period. August on average has a -4.45% return on the S&P since 1950, and Aug/Sep combined is an average return of -5.8%. October tends to be the best month to be a buyer with an average return of 4% after 2 months and 6% after 6 months.
Stock Market | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOG MSFT AnalysisQQQ Forecast
Sp500 ETF analysis
Nvidia Stock NVDA Forecast Technical Analysis
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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Analysis: Multi-Timeframe BreakdownYet another great week traders and yet another analysis for us to look at today. I've been closely watching AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) across the weekly, daily, and 15-minute timeframes, and there’s a lot happening here. Let’s break it down:
Weekly Chart
On the weekly chart, ASTS has absolutely exploded. We're looking at a massive 50%+ gain this week alone. My Deno LinReg Candles are showing a steep upward trajectory, which aligns with this strong bullish move. The price has surged well above the MA21, and the momentum is clearly in favour of the bulls.
The RSI is sitting deep in the overbought territory, which is a signal that we might see some cooling off soon. However, in such strong uptrends, overbought conditions can persist longer than expected.
Key Support: The closest support on the weekly chart is around $19.36, but the way this stock is moving, we could see new levels of support form higher up if the bullish trend continues.
Key Resistance: There’s no immediate resistance in sight since we’re in breakout territory, but psychologically, round numbers like $35.00 or $40.00 could act as resistance.
Daily Chart
Moving to the daily chart, ASTS has continued its bullish run, with the price extending far beyond the upper band of the CPR. This is indicative of a strong trend, but it also suggests that we might be due for a pullback or at least some consolidation soon.
The MA21 is acting as solid support, and as long as we stay above this level, the trend remains bullish. The RSI on the daily chart is also in overbought territory, so we need to keep an eye out for any signs of weakness.
Key Support: Immediate support on the daily is around $22.68, with stronger support at $19.88, which is near the MA21.
Key Resistance: We’re in uncharted territory, but again, look out for psychological levels as potential resistance.
15-Minute Chart
Zooming in on the 15-minute chart, things are cooling down a bit. After that massive run, the price is starting to consolidate, which is healthy after such a big move. My Deno LinReg Candles are starting to show some mixed signals, indicating that we might see a range-bound market in the short term.
The price is currently hovering around the MA21 on this timeframe, and if it holds, we could see another leg up. However, if it breaks down, we might revisit the lower band of the CPR.
Key Support: Immediate support is at $29.82, with stronger support around $28.00.
Key Resistance: The next level to watch is $31.36, which was the recent high.
Forecast and What to Expect
Looking ahead, ASTS is in a strong uptrend on the higher timeframes, but with the RSI being overbought on both the weekly and daily charts, we could see some profit-taking or a pullback soon. On the daily and 15-minute charts, I’ll be watching to see if the price can hold above the MA21. If it does, the bullish momentum could continue, potentially pushing ASTS to new highs.
However, if we start to see signs of weakness, particularly on the 15-minute chart, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback to those key support levels I mentioned.
Stay tuned, and let’s see where this rocket ship takes us!
BTC Long - Comparing to Global M2GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY vs CRYPTO Relation
Global Money Supply Breaking Upwards
has historically led to
All of Crypto Breaking Upwards CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:SOL CRYPTOCAP:ETH etc
Right now, Global Money Supply (Global M2) is breaking upwards to new all-time highs.
Publishing to follow, as I am relatively 'newer' at using macro tools such as Global Money Supply (Global M2) in relation to projecting crypto greater cycles
Cheers
-@CryptoCurb
EURUSD: An In-Depth Analysis and Timeless Trading Strategy👀 👉 The EUR/USD pair is the most traded currency pair in the world, and in this video, I take you through a comprehensive analysis of this highly liquid market. I also present a trade idea that can be considered for today. However, the concepts and strategies discussed are not limited to a single session—they can be applied at any time in the future across various market conditions.
In this video, we explore the key features and benefits of TradingView, highlighting some of the essential tools I use in my day-to-day analysis. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, these tools can enhance your market insights and trading precision.
We delve into critical concepts such as trend analysis, market structure, price action, and the methodology for pinpointing precise entry points on any given trading day. This strategy is not just a one-time trade idea; it’s a robust approach that can be utilized across different currency pairs, making it a versatile addition to your trading toolkit.
Please note that while this analysis is thorough, it should be used as part of a broader trading strategy that takes into account your personal risk tolerance and financial goals. Trading in the currency markets carries inherent risks, and it's important to approach it with a clear understanding of those risks.
9.35 and BeyondFavoring a rapid move higher in wave (iii) of {iii} of 3 through at least the 9.35 wave {b} of 2 high against the {ii} of 3 low of 5.10.
Aurora developed a flat in wave 2 and has since began to develop higher in what appears to be a series of first and second waves before the onset of a third wave at multiple degrees. Third waves typically travel the most distance in the shortest amount of time and I expect to see volatile and rapid upside while any downside should remain corrective. A violation of 5.10 would invalidate the pattern and likely signify further downside through 4.41.
ATOMUSDATOMUSD
Price Action:
Trend: The overall trend in the chart is bearish. After a peak in April 2023, the price has been making lower highs and lower lows, indicative of a downtrend.
Support and Resistance:
➢Support: There appears to be a support level forming around the $4.50-$4.80 range. The price has tested this level multiple times recently, showing some buying interest.
➢Resistance: Resistance is visible around the $7.00-$8.00 level, where the price previously bounced before continuing downward.
Bollinger Bands:
The Bollinger Bands are relatively wide, indicating higher volatility.
Price Position: The price is currently near the lower band, which could signal that the asset is oversold in the short term. This often suggests a potential bounce or a period of consolidation.
Middle Band (20-day SMA): The price is below the middle band, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Volume:
Recent Volume: The volume has seen spikes during the price drops, indicating strong selling pressure. However, the most recent volumes are tapering off slightly, which could imply that selling pressure is weakening or that traders are waiting for a clearer signal.
Indicators & Signals:
Possible Reversal: If the price holds the support around $4.50 and starts moving upwards, it could signal a short-term reversal or at least a retracement towards the middle Bollinger Band (~$6.00).
Continuation of Downtrend: If the support breaks, we could see further declines, potentially testing lower levels not visible on the current chart.
Conclusion:
The chart shows a bearish trend with a key support level around $4.50-$4.80. The price is currently at the lower Bollinger Band, indicating it might be oversold in the short term. However, the overall sentiment remains bearish unless we see a significant change in price action, such as a break above the middle Bollinger Band or a significant volume spike with upward movement.
Atlas Copco AB: Potential Entry Points in a Long-term UptrendOMXSTO:ATCO_A has demonstrated a long-term uptrend throughout its history, marked by two strong channels, with higher highs and higher lows.
Since the Ukraine-Russian market crash, OMXSTO:ATCO_A has experienced a 100% increase. Currently, the stock is at the resistance channel, which has resulted in a notable downward reaction:
During the strong uptrend, previous resistance levels, where the price peaked, turned into support levels when the stock experienced pullbacks. Now, as the stock returns to these crucial levels, they may serve as key support, potentially causing the stock to struggle to break below them or to rebound and rise further.
I anticipate that the stock will gradually break through each of these key levels, eventually approaching the lower trendline before launching into a significant bull run. This scenario presents a promising opportunity for a long position, but we need additional bullish confirmation at these levels before making a move.
Important levels: 150 SEK, 140 SEk, 120 SEK, 100 SEK
Gold could rise to 2460After a significant drop of nearly 1,000 pips last Monday, gold has established strong support at 2,380 and began to recover mid-week, reaching the 2,430 resistance zone.
The recent pullback from this resistance found support at 2,415—a level that has served as both support and resistance since the beginning of the month. Once again, support has formed higher, this time at 2,420.
At the time of writing, the price is hovering around 2,435, and we could see a clear breakout to the upside in the hours.
My strategy is to buy on dips, and I will remain bullish as long as the price stays above 2,415.
Thin Markets Unnerve Traders: What to Know About Summer TradingLow trading volume is the market theme of the summer, which is driving investors to question their knowledge and ability to move in and out of markets. Forex, stocks, commodities and even crypto — they all seem more volatile during the summer quarter and there’s a reason for that.
Big-shot traders ditch the trading desks for margaritas, espresso martinis and tan on the Amalfi coast while algo trading gets to slosh around billions of dollars. The result — thin liquidity sinks trades every now and then.
August Trading Shakes and Stirs Markets
The summer months have rolled in and with them a heightened feeling of unease has swept global markets. From a rally in the Japanese yen , to a big meltdown in stocks and crypto market carnage , asset classes got shook from this one market characteristic — volume .
Thinning trading volumes disrupted the usual market rhythm, ushering in an environment dominated by increased volatility and unpredictable swings. Low volumes have the tendency to amplify price declines and increases.
Illiquid August conditions may turn a rather normal move into a violent swing. Fewer shares traded means that a trading instrument is more susceptible to sharp price movements as there are fewer participants to absorb the trades.
Panic Selling and the Carry Trade
A volatility storm swept Japan’s stock market last week, throwing it into its worst single-day performance since 1987. Japan’s broad-based index Nikkei NI225 crumbled 12.4% in a single session while US stocks slumped 3%. Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX index of volatility VIX , shot up more than 50% to its highest level in 2020 when the pandemic was wreaking havoc.
A day later, Japan bounced up 10% and the S&P 500 jumped 1%. The VIX shot lower by 28%. Japan ended up in the spotlight due to the unwinding of what’s called the “carry trade” — big hedge funds had borrowed trillions of cheap Japanese yen at near-zero interest rates to buy stocks or jam the cash into Treasury bills that pay a 5% interest. Risk-free.
What’s not to like? The yen’s rise, for one. The sharp appreciation of the yen sent panicked carry traders scrambling to dump their holdings and repay their yen debt, which was getting more expensive.
It’s the Algos’ Market, We All Live In It
In August, traders typically exchange about 9.3 billion of US shares a day. Compared to March, where 13.2 billion shares change hands a day, that’s a 30% decrease in trading volume. Apparently, Wall Street does get a break from trading. Or does it?
The stock market and the currency market, in particular, are dominated by and large by computer-trading algorithms that execute trades at lightning speed based on pre-programmed criteria. These algorithms, or simply algos, are allowed to process huge amounts of data and react to market conditions in milliseconds.
While this can create efficiency and liquidity in normal market conditions, during periods of low volume — such as the summer months — they can contribute to increased volatility, especially if they are levered to the tune of 15, 20, 30 times.
A single large order or a sudden piece of news can trigger a cascade of algorithmic responses, leading to rapid and sometimes exaggerated price movements. In other words, when these algos make a decision, that’s when volatility goes through the roof. Pair it with low volumes and you’ve got an explosion (or implosion) of prices.
How to Survive Wild Markets?
Given the unique challenges of summer trading, traders need to adjust their strategies accordingly. Here are some tips that can help.
Lower Position Sizes : In a thin market, large positions can be harder to exit without moving the market (especially if you’ve loaded up on illiquid meme coins). Reducing position sizes can help mitigate this risk.
Wider Stops : With increased volatility, it may be necessary to widen stop-loss orders to avoid getting wiped out by intraday market noise.
Focus on Liquidity : Stick to trading more liquid instruments where possible, as these will typically be less affected by the summer slowdown. Hint: forex is the most liquid market.
Keep an Eye on Economic Data : Summer doesn’t stop economic data releases , which can lead to outsized market reactions in a light market. Stay informed.
Patience and Discipline : Summer trading requires patience and discipline. The temptation to overtrade in a quiet market can lead to mistakes. It’s often better to wait for clearer setups rather than forcing trades in a challenging environment. While you're waiting for the right moment to step in, test your strategies and find the best moves for future trades.
What Do You Think?
Summer trading presents a unique set of challenges that can unnerve even the most experienced traders. Thin markets, increased volatility, and the dominant role of algorithmic trading create an environment where caution is paramount.
How do you handle volatile markets in thin trading? Let us know in the comments and let’s spin up a nice discussion!
Gold, The Dollar, and Everything In BetweenHey there,
So, today we're looking at the recent performance of the dollar and the sudden recovery on Gold.
Which indicates a very interesting outlook in the weeks to come leading up to the expected rate cut scheduled to happen September (Next Month).
So if you're curious about what you need to keep an eye out for, be sure to check out today's video were we discuss the markets from both a fundamental and technical perspective.
$SKEW CBOE SKEW Index and two recent signalsSKEW is a measure of options prices in the S&P500 Index that divides the options volatilities of puts/calls.
How to use the CBOE:SKEW Index gets a bit more cloudy since it isn't always clear or perfect in its "signal generation". But I think it is important to know what it is showing so you can at least decide what the general sentiment and positioning is in the options market for the S&P500 or $SPY.
So let's talk about a couple of scenarios:
1. Rising CBOE:SKEW and Rising AMEX:SPY prices. The thinking process behind this combination is that people are selling calls and using the proceeds to buy puts to protect against a market drop. This is a market that is "hedging" as the market goes up. So if people are hedging their longs, they are effectively showing that they are worried about falling prices and that implies the market is "climbing a wall of worry." Markets usually continue to climb in that condition. I have labeled this setup in late May which preceded the advance in stock prices in June.
2. Falling CBOE:SKEW and Falling AMEX:SPY prices. The logic behind this setup is that people are buying calls as stock prices fall, getting more emboldened with price declines, which is a very bearish setup implying lower prices ahead. This is the scenario we had going into the end of July which preceded the drop in August.
You can see that CBOE:SKEW has returned to the middle of the range here, so there is no new signal to work from here.
Stay tuned for one of these scenarios to set up again. The next variable to use is the level of TVC:VIX to alert us to whether there is active buying of options or selling of options to give us deeper insights into what is likely to happen.
Cheers,
Tim
10:59AM EST 8/8/2024
Microsoft: More Oversold than During Covid?Microsoft has declined along with other AI names in the last month. How big was the pullback? Some traders may be surprised to know its intensity.
The first noteworthy signal on today’s chart is Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI). The oscillator hit 24.69 on Monday. That was the lowest reading since August 2015. In other words, MSFT this week was more oversold than March 2020 -- at the depths of the coronavirus selloff.
Next, the software giant tested and held its April 25 low around $388. That may suggest support remains in effect.
Third, MSFT is trying to hold its 200-day simple moving average for the first time since March 2023. That could indicate the presence of a longer-term uptrend.
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XAUUSD 8 Aug 2024Based on the latest data, the current price of XAU/USD (Gold Spot US Dollar) is around $2,387.40.
Support and Resistance Levels:
The current support level is around $2,381, while the resistance level is near $2,391. If the price breaks above the resistance level, we could see further upward momentum.
Economic Factors:
Fed Rate Decisions: Speculations of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties can also drive investors towards gold, further pushing the price upwards.
Entry Price:
Entry Type: Limit Order
Entry Level: $2387.00 (This is a point of confluence being near a support level and near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent swing low to swing high.)
Stop Loss:
Stop Loss Level: $2375.00 (Below the recent low and the support zone to avoid getting stopped out by minor fluctuations. This gives a risk of $12 per trade, which is within the 1% risk tolerance.)
Target Price:
Target Price Level: $2410.00 (A level of high liquidity and potential retracement. This provides a reward-risk ratio of approximately 1.92 ($23 potential reward/$12 risk).)
Adjusting Stop Loss to Trail Profits:
First Adjustment: Once the price reaches $2395, move the stop loss to break even at $2387.
Second Adjustment: Once the price reaches $2400, move the stop loss to $2392 (locking in $5 profit).
Final Adjustment: As the price approaches the target of $2410, adjust the stop loss to $2405 to secure more profits while allowing room for the price to reach the target.
Trade Execution:
Order Type: Limit Buy Order
Entry Price: $2387.00
Stop Loss: $2375.00
Take Profit: $2410.00
BOJ Rate Hike Causes Unrest in the Stock Markets: What next?When the Bank of Japan hiked its interest rate at the end of July, global markets went into turbulence.
We will discuss what currency carry trade is, why the yen carry trade has caused this global volatility, and, importantly, whether the market will resume its uptrend.
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Japanese Yen Futures
Ticker: 6J
0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 8-7 : Perfect Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat/Down pattern played out perfectly. Now, as price nears support, we should be looking to position our trading for the next big move higher over the next 5+ trading days.
If my research is accurate, the SPY/QQQ should begin to setup a base mid/late tomorrow and start to rally into Friday - carrying into early next week.
Watch the video I created this morning to learn more.
This short follow-up video will help you understand how my SPY Cycle Patterns work and how you can benefit from their interpretive capabilities.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Classic Wyckoff accumulation. Markup phase coming ! This video is an analysis on the Wyckoff accumulation setup. All aspects of the method are being checked off so it's just a matter of time before we get a breakout due to a "catalyst in the news". Obviously, good news for the vaccine sector will probably be bad news for the overall market.
What about altcoins, will the "BULLRUN" begin !What about altcoins, will the "BULLRUN" begin !
In this review:
>Others Marktecap
>Total2 Marketcap
>Total3 Marketcap
>Others Dominance
>BTC Dominanace
>ETH/BTC
>ETHUSD many forms
>ETHUSD/NVDA
Lets start with Others Marketcap
--We see that the volume is slowly increasing in the retest zone. this is positive for us.
When we examine the Rsı levels, we see that it is at the covid level. for such an index, this is "oversold"
RSI(14) 1w and Gaussian Channel
CM Slingshot and LMACD
--------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL2 Marketcap 1w
level 1= Accumaltion
Trend mildline
level 2= Bullrun
1008 passed from the summit to today. That's enough :D
Total2 with Keltner Channel
-----------------------------
Total3 Marketcap
"SAME"
2020 vs 2024 !
--------------------------
Others Dominance
is waiting for the UP movement at the channel bottom leve =)
-----------------------------------------
ETH/BTC 1w
2016-2024
------------------
ETHUSD
CHart 1/5
Ethereum Log Curve Zones
Chart 2/5
RSI Level and 1008 days
2020 vs 2024
Chart 3/5
Keltner Channel // Top, Bottom and Retest zones
Chart 4/5
-Bullrun EVE
Chart 5/5
CYCLE chart ( just some MATH:D)
Parallel Channel MODE
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TOTAL2/Nasdaq
3...2...1... GO !
----------------------------------------
ETHUSD/NVIDIA
Its Ready =)
When you analyse all these chart, the following rings in your head:
>>>ALTSEASON is inevitable.