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WHY 95% OF TRADERS DO NOT SUCCEED? The evidence suggests that only a very small proportion of day traders makes money year over year. There are certain patterns which may separate profitable traders from those who ultimately lose money. And indeed, there is one particular mistake that in our experience gets repeated time and time again. What is the single most important mistake that led to traders losing money? Here is a hint – it has to do with how we as humans relate to winning and losing. Our own human psychology makes it difficult to navigate financial markets, which are filled with uncertainty and risk, and as a result the most common mistakes traders make have to do with poor risk management strategies. Traders are often correct on the direction of a market, but where the problem lies is in how much profit is made when they are right versus how much they lose when wrong. Bottom line, traders tend to make less on winning trades than they lose on losing trades. Humans aren’t machines, and working against our natural biases requires effort. Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. That will help you to be a consistently profitable trader.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
5
5 Elements of a Smart Trade Plan Find out why you should have a trade plan—and the five elements that may help you put it to work successfully. Element 1: Your time horizon How long do you plan to hold a position? This will depend on your trading strategy. Generally, traders fit into one of three categories: Single-session traders are very active and look to gain from small price variations over very short time periods (minutes or hours) throughout the trading day. Swing traders target trades that can be completed in a few days to a few weeks. Position traders seek larger gains and recognize that it often takes longer than a few weeks to achieve them. Element 2: Your entry strategy Look for entry signals—for instance, divergences from trend lines and support levels—to help you place your trades. The signals you employ and the orders you use to make good on them hinge on your trading style and preferences. Element 3: Your exit plan When it comes to an exit strategy, plan for two types of trades: those that go in your favor and those that don’t. You might be tempted to let favorable trades run, but don’t ignore opportunities to take some profits. Element 4: Your position size Trading is risky. A good trade plan establishes ground rules for how much you’re willing to risk on any single trade. Say, for example, you don’t want to risk losing more than 2%–3% of your account on a single trade. You could consider exercising portion control, or sizing positions, to fit your budget. Element 5: Your trade performance Look over your trading history to calculate your theoretical trade expectancy, meaning your average gain (or loss) per trade. You start by determining the percentage of your trades that have been profitable versus those that haven’t. This is known as your win/loss ratio. Understanding what goes into a smart trade plan is the first step to prepare you for your next trade.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
4
Exit Strategies to Consider on Each Trade: a Complete GuideEnter, monitor, and exit are three vital steps to follow while trading. While most traders focus on how and when they can enter a particular setup, they pay less attention to their exit strategy. Today, we are gonna look into some popular exit strategies that we utilise in our personal trading. 1) Breakeven closure When the price is moving in our direction and is already a few key zones away from the entry zone, we make the trade risk-free by moving the Stop Loss level to the price of entry. If the Stop Loss gets hit, we exit the trade with neither a gain nor a loss. 2) Manual Closure In the process of monitoring, if the price does not play out according to our plan, we tend to make quick decision and exit the trade earlier than planned. 3) Target Profit We set a Take Profit (TP) order that closes the transaction as soon as it gets triggered. 4) Stop Loss
 We set a Stop Loss (SL) order that closes the transaction as soon as it gets triggered.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Investroy
16
What is an ETF? (exchange traded fund) An exchange traded fund (ETF) is an investment fund that invests in a basket of stocks, bonds, or other assets. ETFs are traded on a stock exchange, just like stocks. Investors are drawn to ETFs because of their low price, tax efficiency and ease of trading. ETFs seek to provide the performance of a specified index, such as the S&P 500, and typically have low fees. Like mutual funds, ETFs offer investors diversified exposure to a portfolio of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate. Why are ETFs popular? While investors often associate ETFs with large stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, ETFs provide access to virtually every asset class, sector, region, theme and investment style. ETFs are popular because of their low fees, tax efficiency, liquidity and transparency. Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. What are the benefits of ETFs? ETFs cost significantly less than comparable active mutual funds — and that savings can add up over time. Other benefits include: Access and liquidity. Because ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, they are easily bought or sold. Transparency. Just like mutual funds, ETFs report performance quarterly and fees daily. Diversification. ETFs provide access to a wide range of investment options, covering a broad range of asset classes, sectors and geographies. They also make it easy to select specific themes or investment styles. What are the risks associated with ETFs? Like mutual funds, ETFs carry investment risk depending on their asset class, strategy and region. Some ETFs are riskier than others. In addition, if you invest in an ETF that holds securities in a currency other than your own, movements in the foreign exchange rate may affect your returns.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by TopTradingSignals
6
Traders gaining momentum: Fall edition!Hey everyone! 👋 Grab your beverage of choice: it's time to sit back, relax, and take a look at some of the hottest up and coming authors on TradingView. All of these folks deserve a follow, so be sure to show them some love! ❤️❤️ If you think we’re missing someone, be sure to make it known below in the comments. Also, we’ll be doing these roundups from time to time so be sure follow us so you don’t miss any of them! Let’s jump in. We’ve sorted each Author by the asset class they focus on. Click on their profile and see if you like the ideas they're putting out! Multi-Asset: Trade_Journal TrendLINEBoys NoFomoCharts ZenMode Valerus_Forex Vixtine SquishTrade LupaCapital Stocks & Indices: dpuleo19 nuggetrouble rossgivens MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader Crypto: decklyndubs natef1 Currencies: jamison_fx DemoDiaryFX_Trading CarterKyleCapital Lightwork_ WallStreetIntelligence And there you have it! Our roundup. As we mentioned before, don’t forget to follow TradingView for regular educational content :) Think we missed any up-and-coming accounts? Point them out in the comments! Obviously, don’t shill yourself. 😉 Cheers! - Please remember Editors' Picks and all the authors we mention are our attempt to show undiscovered traders, unique market insights, and interesting educational material. Anyone can be featured in Editors' Picks or in posts like this. All it takes is publishing an idea from your account. We try to be as fair as possible, following many of you, and reading all the different ideas published daily. That's it! High quality content, consistency, clarity, and the will to help others is what we look for. You can read all of our guidelines below: www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com
COMEX:SI1!Education
by TradingView
30
WHAT IS LEVERAGE IN FOREX? “Leverage” means using a small amount of your own money in order to control a much larger amount of money. Typically, you borrow the remaining amount through your broker. For example, say you want to control a $50,000 position. Your broker might put aside $500 of your own money and borrow the remainder. You now have control over the $50,000 with just $500 from your own account, so your leverage ratio is 100:1. Now, let’s say the $50,000 investment rises by $500, so the full position is now worth $50,500. If you were liable for the full $50,000 (representing a 1:1 ratio), this is only a 1% return on your investment. However, since you only put in $500 of your own capital, the $500 increase represents a 100% return on your investment – that’s way more exciting! Now, it’s important to understand that this cuts both ways. If you lost $500 instead of gaining $500, you would see a -100% return on your investment. Yikes! If you had a 1:1 ratio and put in the full $50,000 you would only see a -1% return. How Much Can You Leverage in Forex? Before you open an account with a broker, you’ll want to check the maximum leverage ratio that you’ll be able to use. The higher the ratio, the bigger your potential gains or losses. Brokers will usually offer 50:1, 100:1, 200:1, or 400:1 ratios. A typical ratio on a standard lot account is 100:1, and a mini lot account will often offer a 200:1 ratio. If you start trading at 400:1, be wary of using small deposits to control large capital, as these can disappear quickly with the volatility of large sums. Lower leverage keeps you safer from mistakes, while higher leverage could bring in higher rewards. How Leverage Affects Your Trading ✅ As we’ve seen, leverage is a powerful tool that can help you win big in the forex market. You can use less capital to control greater positions, giving you flexibility and amplifying your profits. However, it can just as easily amplify your losses. At very high levels, leverage starts to damage your odds of success. Transaction costs represent a higher percentage of your margin the greater your position is. This means that transaction costs already put you at a disadvantage with excessively high leverage.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
3
What Is Leverage (in Forex trading)?Leverage allows you to potentially trade more money than you have in your current account. Your broker gives you a loan of 1:10 up to 1:50 leverage for your trading, in the U.S.A. (see chart attached). You can change all amounts and % per trade on the chart. Remember less leverage you put down on a trade, the higher margin (deposit or cash out of your account is needed) to place trades, yes that is how your broker protects you and them from a big huge loss by a forex trader. Also, this how you prevent margin calls from your broker from taking on to much risk. Forex trading involves several things: 1) You account size 2) Leverage used. Higher leverage means you need less margin (broker deposit) per trade. Smaller trades you can do higher leverage with proper risk control. Higher trades you can do smaller leverage with proper risk control. Then you trade for the long-term, not just for a short period of times. 3) Required cash margin that your broker needs to hold for each trade that you are in. Protection for yourself and broker during your trade. 4) Percentage % used per trade (risk controlled by you)< Always do this on every trade that you do. 5) Lot size (you decide before any trades are done). Standard size: 1= 100,000= $10, Micro lot 1= 10,000= $1 or Mini lot 1= 1,000= 0.01 (on USD pairs) 6) Always use a STOP LOSS when trading (so you can determine, amount of risk per trade and/or lot size proper for each trade you do.) You always want to use normally less then 5% risk per trade, so that 20 losing trades in a row does not blow your account. Risk management of your account is what will determine if you succeed or fail in forex trading. If you have a 1% or 2% per risk per trade with a 60%, 70% or higher win rate, with yes compound interest, you will see very high profits in the longer term and your forex account grow fast. The secret is leave your account alone and let it grow. Actually, forex trading involves another ten things, which you can control are: account size, candlestick setups, entry, exit, targets, pair you trade, leverage you use, price you get in, session you trade and time you trade, lot sizes, risk per trade 1% to 5% (less is more).
Education
by Anbat
1
WHAT IS DRAWDOWN | 3 Types Of Drawdown Explained 📚 Hey traders, In my videos, I frequently use the term "drawdown". Many of you asked me to explain the meaning of that term and share some examples. The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at a certain period of time. Imagine you started to trade with 10,000$ account. At the end of the year, your account size reached 15,000$. However, at some point through the year the deposit value dropped to 6,000$. It was the absolute minimum for the one-year period. At some point, your net loss was -4,000$ or 40% of your account balance. The account drawdown is 40%. ❗️Knowing the account drawdown is very important for the risk assessment of the trading strategy. Usually, 50% and bigger drawdown signifies an extremely high risk. There are 3 types of drawdown to know. Current drawdown - a temporary drawdown associated with the negative total value of opened trading position(s) at present. Once you start trading with 10,000$ deposit, you open several trading positions. Being opened, with the constant price movements, your potential gains fluctuates from positive to negative. For examples, with 3 active trades: EURUSD (-500$ at present); GBPUSD (+200$ at present); GOLD (-100$ at present) your current account drawdown is -400$ or 4% of your deposit. Fixed drawdown - the negative value of the closed trading position(s) at present for a certain period of time. While some of your trades remain active, some are already closed. Imagine the same deposit - 10,000$. On Monday you opened 6 trades, 2 still remain active and 4 are already closed. Your total loss from your closed trades is -500$. Your fixed Monday's drawdown is 5%. Maximum Drawdown - the maximum observed loss from the highest value of the deposit before a new maximum is reached. Starting to trade with 10,000$ you are already trading for 5 years. Your account were growing rapidly and at some moment it reached 25,000$. Then the recession started. You faced a dramatic loss of 12,500$ before you started to recover. That was the maximum observed loss for the period. Your maximum account drawdown was 50%. ❗️Different types of drawdown give a lot of insights about a trading strategy. Its proper assessment will help to spot a high risk strategy and to find a conservative one. Constantly monitor your account drawdown and always check the numbers. What is your highest account drawdown? ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
15
How to use the Multibit-System x8 ProcessorFirst, the bases of this chart: what is multibit: its a way to transmit 16 bools from one indicator to the next, based on the library this is called daisy chaining, so to use that stuff u need at least a TV-pro+ license, but i would recommend premium, as you also have more data to analyze here you see how its basically looking, x8 can do 8 channels, starting from the bottom which is 0 to the top which is channel 7 what is a classic signal: its a signal for daisy chaining based on a trigger line which can do -1, 0, +1 for short,long, neutral What to see in that Idea: 5 indicators chained into a row which are finally a combined to a strategy almost Nadaraya-watson -- configured to deliver classic signal on cross-inside --> to Digitalsignal plot x8 L3 Processor -- configured to convert a classic to a multibit to channel 0(L),1(S) --> to Multibit plot L1 L2 RSI -- configured to deliver a multibit signal on channel 2(oversold),3(overb.) --> to Multibit plot all the data is now into the daisychain multibit link (so channel 0 1 2 3 used) x8 L3 Processor -- here a lot more of the magic begins: MDB: channel 0 to ch. 0 (filtering small moves (+-4%) MDB: channel 1 to ch. 1 (filtering small moves (+-4%) TON: channel 2 to ch. 4 prolonging 2 by 10 bars TON: channel 3 to ch. 5 prolonging 2 by 10 bars AND: channel 0 and 4 to channel 6 AND: channel 1 and 5 to channel 7 finaly its configured to send out a classic signal from channel 6 and 7 -> 6 is +1 7 is a -1 else 0 --> to Digitalsignal plot you can now do alarms on the x8 processor Digitalsignal (trigger above and below 0 for long short) FINISHED, OR: L5 Backtest MK5.5 grabbs the x8 processor (Digitalsignal) and does the risk management and does its magic with the settings in the indicator --> delivers alarms how the position gets managed with a alarmmessage {{strategy.order.alert_message}} in the alarmconfig, than you get the custom texts from the module Functions inside the x8 Processor (you can read the signaltranscoder library for more details) And and condition - 1 2 or 3 signals to on channel line 2 output channel Or condition - 1 2 or 3 signals to on channel line 2 output channel XOR, XAND, NAND, NOR (this are basic Logic combiners) TON - wants a signal over a minumum selectable length to let it pass TOF - prolongs a signal by length selected next 2 are little bit more tricky MDP (MinimumPercentagePromille) - only lets pass a signal if it minimum grows or shrinks xxxx promile Parameters: would be: 1=Input, 2= 950(5% shrink), 3= 1050(5% grow) 4=outputchannel 5= MDP RATE - wants a amount of signals in a defined length Parameters: 1= input, 2= candleamount, 3= minimum count 4= output 5= RATE that list are most functions a strategy uses, so you can combine more indicators in a row without the need to code around every time you wanna try something. There are now several multibit indicators out in the wild from me, each of my indicators which i touch again or update will be compatible. at least for Level 1 Indicators i do a 1,0 -1 Classic signal which a x8 can turn into a multibit very quicky. a implementation reference code you can see here: at the bottom of the script, both versions, classic and multibit have fun
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PEducation
by djmad
3
Learn TOP 5 Tips For Trade Management 📖 Hey traders, In this post, I will share with you my tips for trade management. But first, let me elaborate on what is exactly a trade management. Trade management is the set of rules and techniques applied for managing of an already active position. Trade management is a very important element of any trading strategy that should never be neglected. 1. Never remove a stop loss Being in a huge loss, many traders refuse to admit that they are wrong. Instead, watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss, they remove stop loss hoping on a coming reversal. The alternative situation may happen when the price is going sharply in the desired direction. Watching the increasing profits, traders remove a stop loss, being afraid to miss bigger profits. Both situations may lead to substantial, higher than initially planned losses. Driven by many factors, the market can easily burn all gains and move against the desired direction much longer than traders stay solvent. For these reasons, never remove a stop loss. It must be always set. 2. Never modify your stop loss if a position is in loss Watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss is painful. Instead of removing stop loss, some traders move it and give the market more space for reversal. Even though such a technique is safer than the complete stop loss removal, it is still a very bad habit. Each stop loss adjustment increases the potential loss, not giving any guarantees that the market will reverse. It is highly recommendable to keep your stop loss fixed and let the price hit it and admit the loss. 3. Know in advance your profit protection strategy Where do you take your profit? Do you have a fixed tp level or do you apply trailing stop? You should always know the answers. Coiling around take profit level but not being able to reach it, the price makes many traders manually close the trade or move take profit closer to current price levels. Another common situation happens when the market so quickly reaches the desired TP level so the traders remove TP hoping to make bigger than initially planned profit. Such emotional interventions negatively affect a long-term trading performance. TP removal may even burn all profits. Do not let your greed intervene, and always follow your rules. 4. Never add to a losing position Watching how the price refuses to go in the intended direction and cutting a partial loss, many traders add to a losing trade in hopes that the market will reverse and all the losses will be recovered. Again, such a fallacy usually leads to substantial losses. Remember, you can add to a position only AFTER the market moved in the desired direction, not BEFORE. 5. Close the trades manually only following rules Quite often, newbie traders manually close their trades because of some random factors: they saw someone's opposite view, or they simply changed their mind. Remember, that if you opened a trade following your trading plan, you should always have strict rules for a position manual close. Do not let random factors affect your trading. Following these 5 simple tips, your trading will improve dramatically. Remember, that it is not enough to spot and accurate entry. Once you are in a trade, you should wisely manage that, following your plan. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5
Proof of work VS. Proof of StakeBINANCE:ETHUSDT Before Ethereum merge lets dive in little bit in fundamentals At the core of each cryptocurrency is a network of computers that helps keep software safe from hackers and controls how many new units can be made available. The consensus mechanism is the name for this set of rules. Proof of Work (PoW) and Proof of Stake (PoS) are the two most common consensus mechanisms. They both control the way that transactions between users are checked and added to the public blockchain ledger without the help of a central party. Understanding the differences can help you decide which cryptocurrencies to add to your portfolio. For example, cryptocurrencies that use Proof of Stake may come with more responsibilities or benefits. What does PoW (Proof of Work) mean? In the early 1990s, Proof of Work (PoW) was created as a way to stop email spam. It was thought that computers might have to do a little bit of work before sending an email. This job would be easy for someone sending a real email, but sending a lot of emails would take a lot of processing power and resources from users. But Satoshi Nakamoto, the person who made Bitcoin, was the first person to use the technology in a digital money system. He did this in the Bitcoin white paper. Blockchai Blockchain is a system made up of a chain of blocks, which are groups of transactions that are put in order by the time they were done. The software for the PoW blockchain has the genesis block, also called block 0, hardcoded into it. This block doesn't connect to the one before it because that's how it's made. Blocks that are added to the chain always refer to blocks that came before them, and each block has a copy of the whole updated book. Costs of energy PoW algorithms decide who can make changes to the ledger by setting up a race in which some participants (called "miners") are asked to use a lot of computing power to come up with valid blocks that follow the rules of the network. The nodes, which are any computer running the Bitcoin software, then verify the transactions, stop double spending (sending the same amount of money to two different people), and decide if the proposed blocks should be added to the chain. Miners on the PoW network compete to solve hard math problems, which is called "hashing," in order to make a new block. These puzzles are very hard to solve, but the network should be able to easily check that the answer is correct. Participation In the PoW protocol, computing power and cryptography are used together to reach a consensus and make sure that transactions on the blockchain are valid. Miners try to get the right answer to math problems during the hashing process and when making new blocks. To do this, miners try to figure out a string of numbers that seems to be random, called a hash. This, along with the data in the block, should produce a result that meets the conditions set by the protocol when it is run through a computer with a hash function. The winner's hash is then sent to the network so that other miners can check if the answer is correct. If the answer is right, the block is added to the block chain, and the miner gets a block reward. Giving out the prizes The block reward is the new cryptocurrency that is given to the miner by the blockchain for each valid block that the network accepts. After a certain number of blocks have been found, the block reward for some cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, goes down. This is to make sure that the total amount of money stays fixed and doesn't keep growing. What does PoS stand for? Proof of Stake (PoS) is a change to Proof of Work (PoW) that was made in 2012 to get rid of the idea that the blockchain's order was based on how much energy was used. Instead of having computers compete to make the matching hash, the PoS protocol is based on the idea that participation is determined by who owns a certain number of coins. Using a set of factors set by the protocol, the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) algorithm chooses a node (anyone who owns the coin) to propose the next block to the blockchain in a way that looks like it was chosen at random. When a node is chosen, its job is to check that the transactions in the block are correct, sign the block, and send it to the network to be checked. Blockchain Order Similar to PoW, a PoS blockchain is a system made up of a chain of blocks that are put in order by the time they were created. The genesis block is the name for the first block in the PoS blockchain, which is also hardcoded into the software. Blocks that are added to the chain always refer to blocks that came before them, and each block has a copy of the whole updated book. In Proof-of-Stake (PoS) currencies, there is no competition for who gets to add blocks. Because of this, blocks are often called "forged" or "minted" instead of "mined." Costs of energy PoS blockchains are different from PoW blockchains in that who can offer blocks is not just based on how much computing power and energy is used. People who like PoS often say that it is a "more energy-efficient" system because each node is in charge of making new blocks instead of competing with other nodes. Since both PoW mining and PoS minting require energy, mining and minting nodes want to use the cheapest form of electricity possible. This is usually from renewable sources like hydroelectric power, wind power, or solar power, not from sources that release greenhouse gases like coal. Also, PoS blockchains need to use specialized hardware (GPUs), which, like PoW mining hardware (ASICs) and other computers, costs money to make. PoS miners also have to keep their internet connections up and running, which takes energy. Participation Users who want to be chosen to add blocks to the PoS blockchain must stake or lock up a certain amount of blockchain currency in a special contract. How likely they are to be the next person to make a block is based on how many coins they bet. If a user does something bad, they might lose their share as a punishment. So that the richest nodes don't always win, PoS may use other factors to decide. These can be things like how long the node staked its coins or just pure chance. Giving out the prizes Similar to the PoW algorithm, the block reward in PoS is the cryptocurrency that the blockchain gives to the user who offers a valid block. But since blocks are chosen based on who owns the coins, exchanges may offer "staking" services that let users stake money on their behalf in exchange for more frequent payouts. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. * Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ * For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Education
by Crypto4light
🔔TRADING HACKS: Use alerts or go crazy🔔In my trading, I really like using alerts and recommend everyone to do the same. The main ways of using them for me are: 1. While waiting for a tap into my Area of interest. 2. After entry, for waiting at my breakeven level. 3. Also for waiting for the First partial level, the second partial as well of course. I use them in other ways as well, for example, it helps me while I'm waiting for confirmation to set up. It's great to install a Trading View app so that you can receive notifications on your phone.
Education
by Yelli_trades
9
3 Rules To Follow When Trading While Working Full-Time👋 Hello, and welcome my name is Dean Muller from WealthTIP where our tip for wealth is to trade invest and prosper, today’s post is focused on the 3 rules that I believe you need to follow if you want to actively and successfully trade the markets while still working a full-time job, business, or side hustle. So, if you enjoy this type of content then go ahead to leave a thumbs up and that way we know that we’re on the right track to meeting your content needs. Now that we covered that, let’s jump over to the first rule you need to implement as a trader, working full-time. 1. 📝 Create a Watchlist I remember when I started trading I only traded one pair, and that was the GBPUSD, as I began honing in on my skills as a technical trader, I started looking at a few more pairs, and the more pairs I looked at the more opportunities I saw, the problem was however, that I wasn’t able to keep up with the movements of each pair and this coursed me to lose focus on the pairs I had positions on and ultimately mismanage a lot of the trades. I then reached out to a good friend of mine and he suggested I create a watchlist now at the time I had absolutely no clue what a watchlist was, and if you don’t know what it is, it’s simply a list of pairs that according to your strategy has potential trade setups coming together with a probabilistic profitable outcome. Now if you would like me to do a video showing you how to put a watchlist together, then simply write a comment in the comment section below and if we get 100 likes on this video then I will be happy to put one together, but for now This is a cardinal rule for anyone trading, while still working full-time. 2. ⏰ Set Trade Alerts When you are working, vary rarely are you able to access the charts freely, this means that you could miss out on the very opportunities you identified when you put your watchlist together. The best way to combat this is to use platforms like tradingview that allows you to set trade alerts that will notify you when the market is on an area you deem significant. Setting these alerts ensures that you aren’t distracted by the charts while you working and you won’t have to check your phone every 5 min, instead, you only jump on the charts once you are notified, making it easier to focus on your job, while still having a hand in the markets. 3.🎯 Use Pending Orders Pending orders are a powerful tool that trading platforms provide all traders with, and no one benefits more from pending orders than someone working a full-time job. Personally after putting my watchlist together I have a good idea with regards to where I intend to enter the markets, and because I do my watchlist over the weekend when the markets are closed, I set all my pending orders as soon as the markets opens Sunday midnight. What this allows me, is the freedom to focus on other things while still having a hand in the markets. Now if you would like to know more about how you can use pending orders to make your trading easier give this video a thumbs up and I will be sure to put that into our project list. And always remember, if you frustrated, annoyed, angry or anxious when trading, then you doing it wrong, and should check out our Foundation Series, where we explain the process to successful technical analysis in a plain, and simple way. Furthermore, I really do hope that you were able to extract some value from today’s post, and if you did be sure to hit like and share so that we can continue creating content that not only serves you, but equips you to successfully and joyfully navigate your way through the financial markets. So until next time, you should keep well and bye for now.
Education
by DeanMuller
📖 STEP 4 to MASTER TRADING: Focus on One Pattern 📖 "I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times." - Bruce Lee We, traders, have a natural passion for learning and that’s really great and helps us build that foundation for trading. However, a moment comes when enough is enough and it’s time to focus on something more specific. But very often, we can make the unconscious mistake of trying to learn as much as possible, without even questioning if we really need it at the moment. 🟩 TOO MUCH INFORMATION For anyone eager to learn, the information is there. In fact, too much information, and naturally, it can be hard to stop learning. Sometimes we just feel we need to learn about one more pattern, one more strategy, one more approach. And it may seem that more knowledge will bring quality. And that’s true when you just start trading, however, later in your career, it makes sense to think and ask yourself: “Do I really need one more strategy which I know on an average level, or should I maybe focus on one strategy, or one pattern of any given strategy - and really master it, and refine it to the very deep level of understanding?” 🟩 IT’S UNCOMFORTABLE TO LET GO This part can be discussed for a long time, but based on what was said before, it’s literally uncomfortable for traders to let go of this habit of trying to trade multiple patterns, and learn more patterns in between. I’m not sure why this is so, there must be some psychological reasoning for this, but in simple words, every new trading pattern can be treated by us as a new opportunity to make profits in the market. And so when we stop learning more patterns - it can feel like we’re missing something. And it may seem that the more we trade, the more patterns we can use - the more profit we can bank because we can enter into the market based on different patterns. And while that may be true to some genius traders, for most of us it doesn’t work that well. More importantly - we don’t need to do it. It’s enough to master 1-2 patterns of a given system we believe in and tested, and so have confidence in it. I propose you consider “cutting off” 90% of your trading knowledge and focus only on executing 1-2 patterns max. Think about it. If you’re like me, you should feel really uncomfortable or even scared to do this. It may even seem stupid. Because it means you should let go of all the time you dedicated to learning, and maybe even trading with some systems before. But it’s an illusion because that time and effort - they are not lost, you can’t lose them, they are part of you now, part of your experience, something that led you to finally choose something you will work with really closely. But if you will attach to everything you learned before – this will confuse you and spray your focus all over the place, making it much harder to become a specialized, professional trader. 🟩 FOCUS ON YOUR BEST PATTERN ONLY When the time comes, and you’ve tried several strategies, it now makes sense to stop exploring additional systems and just focus on one system and learn everything about it. For example, if you’re trading head and shoulders, then stop trading double tops and bottoms, break and retest, and diamond patterns. Why? Because head and shoulders are not just 5 lines on the chart, it has numerous variations in how it plays out in the market, in different markets, sessions, and contexts. And you have to know it, see it, test it, and refine it. Become a master of head and shoulders, or any other specific pattern and trading approach, and be profitable with it. And if profitability is there - you can move on to another pattern, but at that stage, you will not need it probably. 🟩 HINDSIGHT TEST, BACKTEST, FORWARDTEST, REFINE It’s a great practice to have a “hindsight journal” and your backtesting journal, that will only be about that pattern you chose to trade. And there could be several reasons for choosing some particular pattern. But usually, it comes from your mentor or anyone else that you saw who reached sustainable profitability with it, and you believed in this pattern. But that would not be enough. You can’t tell your brain - believe in this. You need to actually show and prove it to your brain and to yourself. So you need to backtest this pattern, and only this pattern for at least 150 trades. This will help you to develop real confidence in the system. 🟩 YES, IT CAN BE HARD TO FIND “YOUR” SYSTEM I spent almost 3 years before I really found something I was willing to stick to long-term. Not sure if there’s actually good advice on how to find the system for yourself. It depends on your personality, your lifestyle, etc. Based on my experience, I would say just continue to learn and listen to yourself. Most likely you’ll find some trader or a mentor and you’ll like his trading style. Try to replicate it, and stick to his system. With time, and during journaling and live testing, it will all develop into your own system. Yes, it may look similar to your mentor’s but it will be your system. And once again, a trading system can have different kinds of entry confirmations, but it makes big sense to choose 1 or 2 confirmations and master them. 🎁 For those who are still reading :), thank you, and here’s BONUS trading hack for you. Next time during your trading day, when you'll feel something is wrong, maybe you're frustrated or just feel like your discipline starts to slip away, or maybe even you catch yourself thinking about entering without entry pattern or risk more than usual - realize that's your "monkey brain" stepping in. It's very hard to control, but easy to trick. Here's what you should do. Say to yourself: "Ok, I'll do whatever I like, place any kind of trade with the risk of half of the account if I want, BUT after 20 min. pass." Then you just start a timer (you can google "timer 20 min.") and do whatever you like after that 20 minutes. Usually what happens is you calm down and don't do stupid things. It very simple but effective technique. 🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀 💬Send your comments and questions below, I'll be glad to talk to you💬 Dima
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
19
What is IDO? Benefits and Risk WHAT IS IDO? SHOULD YOU BUY LAUNCHPAD TOKENS? What is an IDO? The initial decentralized offer is the process of selling tokens early on decentralized exchanges for new crypto projects (DEX). "IDO" - Initial Dex Offering. Decentralized intermediary exchanges help new blockchain companies sell their tokens. IDO is a common way to get people to invest in a crypto project. It works in a way that is similar to an IPO, which is when shares are sold on the stock market. IDO takes place in two steps: Tokens can only be used by a small group of people. On average, one participant gets a "allocation" of $100 to $1,000, but it depends on the project and could be more. Start of business. After being made, tokens are put in a pool where they can be sold. At this point, they can already be traded. How IDO works? With the help of decentralized exchanges (DEX), putting tokens into action is much easier. The project team issues its tokens on the chosen platform, and the exchange is already selling and transferring tokens. People buy them, which helps pay for the project. The main benefit of this method of promotion for the developer is that the process is automated. On DEX exchanges, everything is automated using smart contracts, so the developer doesn't have to deal with each sale and purchase. Here are some basic rules about how IDO works: From the start, the project is tested on the chosen DEX, and only after that can it be used for IDO. If the "exam" doesn't go well, they won't be able to enter IDO. Then, they sell a certain number of tokens for a set price. Buyers block their money, and the amount of assets they bought is given to them. After tokens are made, they are given to people (TGE). To buy, you have to be on the list of investors who have been checked out (White paper). For verification, you need either an address for a crypto wallet or the completion of tasks set by the project. The project team gets the money from the sale of digital assets, minus the money that goes into the liquidity pool. When the tokens are unlocked, they can be traded after the purchase. Coins can be locked for a few months or even a few years, depending on the project. During the attraction of investments in the project, the tokens are not liquid. Participation in IDO To join IDO, you'll need the following: - Metamask or another active cryptocurrency wallet; - Enough money in the right stablecoin to buy tokens and pay for exchange fees; - Set up the connection to the DApps. Make sure you have enough money in your account to cover the cost of transactions before you buy tokens. After connecting the DApp, you need to follow the instructions, which may be slightly different on each exchange. When a user buys tokens, he or she gets to keep them. When the generation period is over, the money is moved to the crypto wallet. Please keep in mind that the terms of the exchange say that assets may be locked for a while or used to stake. Before agreeing to the project's terms, you should carefully read the instructions. IDO's Safety Measures There are risks involved in any activity that has to do with buying assets. This is especially true when real money is used to buy virtual tokens in the crypto ecosystem. You have to do exactly what is said. A few rules to follow in IDO to stay safe: - Check out the link to sign up. Scammers can offer a fake link when they want to send money to a project. If you use it, the money will go to the attackers and not to the platform. This means you can forget about tokens. Look for strange redirects. - Think about what you want to say. Project ideas are usually posted on well-known, popular exchanges, but not always there. - Don't put money in until you've looked into the project. All of the information about the founder and his team needs to be carefully looked at. Most of the time, projects that make money are made by professionals who have done it before. - Pay close attention to the terms. Based on the rules of the exchange, tokens could be blocked for a long time. You need to know what to expect ahead of time. - Mentally say goodbye to the invested amount. The most important rule of investing is that you should only invest money that you don't mind losing if something goes wrong. IDO is not a way to make money where you have to put in money. Not because it was a scam, but because it took so long to pay back. What will happen to IDO? The rules for initial public offerings that are decentralized are always changing. There are new ways to trade coming up. The IDO (Initial Farm Offer) scheme is as popular as the IFO (Initial Farm Offer) scheme. The biggest problem with IDO is that assets have to be frozen before they can be released into the pool. So, you can only make money with tokens after a while. How many people take part in the trade determines how many digital coins the investor will get in the end. To attract big investors, basic and unlimited sale are added as new functions. IDO is one of the most popular ways to get money for a project right now, so they will become even more popular and better in the future. IDO's + - Using this method to get investments has a number of benefits: - Investors and developers don't work directly with each other. Instead, they work through an exchange, so the investor doesn't have to trust the smart contracts of the project. - Part of the money raised is put into the pools so that there will be a market for trading tokens after the sale. - To make a transaction, you don't need to give any personal information; all you need is an active crypto wallet. The project can be used by anyone. - At first, little-known tokens can attract investors, but it would be hard for them to do so through large, centralized exchanges. - IDOs let you buy a limited number of tokens, so that more people can put money into the project. This cuts down on the risks. IDO's - - Among the things that are bad about the IDO scheme, the following stand out: - Not enough good protection. The project is open to everyone. There is no guarantee that someone won't use IDO to launder money or do other illegal things. - There is no proof. Through initial decentralized offerings, it is easier to spread tokens that don't have very high ratings. Launchpads and IDO (launch pads). Should you buy launchpad tokens? Launchpad is a place where people can invest in new crypto projects. Money can be raised so that tokens can be released, developed, and improved. The most important thing that platforms do is bring together investors and blockchain developers into one crypto community. When people invest in digital assets, they want to get virtual currency at a good price. Before the project is published, it must be checked out to protect investors from fraud. The more popular and larger the launchpad, the higher the requirements are for crypto projects. At the same time, most online IDOs are just scams, and the number of these projects is growing all the time. To pick a good IDO, you have to look at a lot of information. The best way to avoid a scam is to do your own research (DYOR). After careful analysis, the choice should be based on objective criteria. he launch of a project on two top platforms at the same time is a good sign. In this case, it doesn't matter which launchpad to use. Investors. Be sure to research the investors and only trust those on the so-called "white list" if that is at all possible. Terms. Paying enough attention to the project's tokenomics is important. For example, some proposals say that you can get assets in a few years. Long-term investments in small projects are risky in a world where things change quickly. You should always think about whether the game is worth your time. If the project isn't shown on trusted platforms and investors from the Whitelist aren't involved, it's not a good idea for a beginner to take them on. You can try to learn about tokenomics by looking at the best projects. After you've mastered the details, you can try more risky launches, but only after you've done a thorough objective analysis. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. * Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ * For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Education
by Crypto4light
Layout and order in TradingviewStrategy is the first most important thing in trading to me, the second is the right layout in Tradingview to monitor the market everyday Im finding the perfect layout to me for my intraday trading I can apply on forex and commodities, having at least 1 future chart as reference Following the description of my 8 charts on layout, for instance on BTC. My order of monitoring follows from point 1 to 8: ***INTRADAY PERPECTIVE 1. My main intraday chart - Time frame preferred 30m or 4h - No moving averages but only levels - Yesterday's low and high levels (red and green dotted lines) generated with my custom pinescript indicator. It includes also failed auctions detection and ATR percentage for my stop loss reference - Intraday volume level on price (white lines) - My custom weekly and monthly level indicator (red horizontal lines) I generate with a my python tool or I can manually draw adding my preferred trendlines. - Volume on timeline (Indicator: Volume) and on price (Indicator: VRVP) are optional. I will look volumes on future chart, not cfd and so on 2. Chart with the same intraday time frame at point 1, with candlestick and pattern detection indicators free provided by Tradingview. ***SWING PERSPECTIVE 3. Daily chart with moving averages EMA9, EMA20, SMA50, SMA200. Main underlying (for instance BTC) 4. Daily chart with moving averages EMA9, EMA20, SMA50, SMA200. Main correlated underlying (for instance USDOLLAR, SP500 are highly correlated with BTC) 5. Future Chart, for instance BT1! - Volume on timeline (Indicator: Volume) and on price (Indicator: VRVP) are required on futures. - Charts like contango curve (BTC2! - BTC1!) or difference between future and spot price are optional (without a strategy) 6. Weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) on future chart, for instance BT1!, free provided by Tradingview 7. Weekly chart with moving averages EMA9, EMA20, SMA50, SMA200. Main underlying (for instance BTC) 8. Monthly chart with moving averages EMA9, EMA20, SMA50, SMA200. Main underlying (for instance BTC) Maybe It will not my final layout but im working well for now. Last but not least.....Dont Sitting and staring at a computer monitor all day long, but using alerts where I need, much better tradingview webhooks to my robots.
FX:BTCUSDEducation
by giancarlopagliaroli
HORIZONTAL LINES ORDER LIMIT STRATEGYSTYLE 1 PIXEL dotted line...level STYLE 2 PIXEL dotted line...buy limit order dashed line...sell limit order text (solid or dashed line) = position STYLE 3 PIXEL dotted line...buy stop limit order dashed line...sell stop limit order text (solid or dashed line) = position FLOW 01 level 02 buy limit order 03 position 04 sell limit order 05 level 06 sell stop limit order 07 buy stop limit order 08 level 09 position 10 buy limit order 11 sell limit order 12 sell stop limit order 13 buy stop limit order
Education
by OlegWinterfell
1
Visual Signals Versus Data Driven ResultsMany traders fall into the habit of judging a trading system or methodology by observing visual signals. A visual signal can range from a bot or algorithm signals, moving average interactions, a stochastic cross, or a plethora of other common patterns. Observation is the first step to finding a successful trading system but relying solely on visual cues will leave you open to selection bias. In other words, people tend to focus on the signals that worked and ignore the ones that didn’t. In addition to selection bias, if you make adjustments to an indicator or strategy based on visual cues without knowing the results in terms of accuracy and profit, you may suffer from what we call cascading changes, also known as unforeseen side effects. Tuning For Results The opposite of relying on visual cues is basing your decisions on the past results of a trading system. While past results do not guarantee future results, a pattern that has produced historical net profit is likely to work to some degree in the future. Indicators and systems that are packaged with backtesting logic allow you to make adjustments to the system and then view how your changes affect real outcomes like net profit, trade accuracy, and profit factor. Making indicator changes based on results means you are using data in your favor. Avoiding Selection Bias The fix for selection bias is simple. If a pattern looks good to your eyes, backtest it and ensure you locate every last instance of the pattern, especially failed outcomes. It’s also important that you backtest over a long time period and do so on multiple different tickers. Some systems work well over a specific date range on a certain ticker but are much less successful on other securities or date ranges. Those who are unable to write automated backtesting scripts will have to rely on manual backtesting or find others who provide backtesting suites. We highly recommend you avoid indicators and systems that do not include the ability to backtest and view past performance. It’s also best to remain skeptical when taking the word of many online influencers. Looking at a few signals that produced winning trades does not mean the system is capable of producing net profit over large sample sizes. In addition, only testing a system in a rampant bull market can be misleading. In other words, don’t fall victim to visual signals that don’t reveal results across time. Avoiding Cascading Changes When backtesting, sometimes tweaks you believe ought to improve your net profit do not produce the expected results. During extensive backtesting, many system changes we thought were improvements turned out to produce undesired outcomes. Not all changes improve your strategy even though the most recent visual signals appear better. For example, by adjusting a strategy variable to avoid a few unwanted losses you may inadvertently miss a few trades that were big winners. The same variables that produced the unwanted losses were the same variables that produced the big winners. Some of the best trading systems follow the trend and a pattern similar to the Pareto principle, which means a small number of trades produce a large amount of the total gains. Missing the big winning trades has a significant negative impact on your net profit. You will never know in advance if the trade will become a big winner, and anyone who tells you they know is naive. Trying to achieve perfect trade accuracy will cause you to miss many excellent opportunities. Adding more variables to a trading strategy means you are limiting the conditions that will activate a signal and increasing the likelihood your strategy will miss winning trades. A good strategy is strict, but simple, and does not attempt to achieve perfection. Technical analysis does not predict the future, it simply provides us with an indication that one outcome is more likely. Changing trading variables without knowing the full extent of your changes over time is akin to fighting with a blindfold on. Below you can observe the excellent gains produced by our Olympus Cloud backtest logic with only a 54% win rate.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Level8Trading
Trading Insights #3: Mastering Your Mind Debriefing In the opening two parts of our Trading Insights Series we evaluated the importance of probability and random distribution, and then covered some key misconceptions relating to technical analysis and price movement. We recommend you start at part one and work your way up, but this entry can stand alone. Intro Your mind is the most powerful piece of the puzzle when it comes to your trading success. Without developing the mentality of a pro trader, you will never achieve the results you desire. When it comes to mastering your mind, we can think of no one better to draw influence from than Buddha. In this entry to the series, we intend to turn back the clock to see if we can glean some valuable insight and apply it to our trading endeavors. Trading Pitfalls There are several pitfalls most aspiring traders fall prey to when operating in the market. In our analysis, there are two categories of trading errors. We define these as conceptual errors and execution errors. While it’s tempting to focus on execution errors, we’ve found that addressing conceptual errors simultaneously fixes execution errors. Conceptual errors stem from inappropriate ideas about trading. These errors are: 1. Not believing you need a defined strategy 2. Blaming the market for your failures rather than taking responsibility 3. Trying to get rich quick by trading in an aggressive and reckless fashion 4. Not viewing your trading exploits over a set of trades and over-emphasizing individual trades Not believing you need a defined strategy This is one of the most common and difficult to break trading habits. The market is a limitless environment where you can do whatever you want, whenever you want. Many traders enjoy this type of freedom and struggle to develop or follow trading rules. Some traders say they recognize the importance of a defined game plan, but when it comes down to it they don’t embody or act out a belief that rules are necessary. By not having a gameplan, or not following your game plan, you will never allow yourself to find out what methods work best for you. When you factor in random variables based on your momentary perception you prevent yourself from learning what variables give you a real edge on the market over a set of trades. Many traders develop a plan, but when the moment comes they fail to execute their plan. This cycle tends to repeat itself over and over. “An idea that is developed and put into action is more important than an idea that exists only as an idea.” —Buddha It’s time to embrace action, not ideas. Create a plan and follow it for 20 to 30 trades. If the results are not what you hoped for, come up with a new plan, and try again. When you find something that works, stick with it until it doesn’t. In this way, you will learn, with a degree of certainty, what method produces the desired results. Blaming the market for your failures rather than taking responsibility for your actions Many traders fall into the habit of believing the market is responsible for their success or failure. The market is a dynamic sequence of events that has no feelings or emotions. It goes up, and it goes down. The market does not exist to make you a winner, just as it does not exist to make you a loser. If you depend on the market to make you a winner, the market can take your success away. If you trade like a gambler and the market gives you a series of winning trades, the market will eventually take the money back. Once you realize it’s up to you to get what you want from the market you will embrace the appropriate amount of responsibility. “It is better to conquer yourself than to win a thousand battles. Then the victory is yours. It cannot be taken from you, not by angels or by demons, heaven or hell.” —Buddha When you take a huge loss, it’s not the market's fault — it’s yours. The contradictory component here is that if you find yourself in a huge winning trade it’s not necessarily because you’re a great trader. Anyone with any degree of skill can stumble into a big winning trade, even a complete amateur. Therefore, big losses beyond what you define as acceptable are your fault, but big winners beyond what you can imagine are not a product of your ability. Why? Because you could have prevented the loss by using a risk management plan, but for the winner, you just happened to enter at the right moment and there is no guarantee it will happen again. Professionals don’t allow themselves to believe they are responsible for big winners — they understand it was just an occurrence of the behavior pattern that gives them an edge on the market and the next trade could very well be a controlled loss. If you believe that a single huge winning trade is more important than a consistent mindset you are missing the big picture. When you master the appropriate mental techniques the market cannot take your success away. You will keep the gains you make and you’ll have the ability to keep winning in a consistent fashion. It’s time to take responsibility and conquer your mind. Trying to get rich quick by trading in an aggressive and reckless fashion Many people get into trading because it seems like the easiest way to make money. In addition, they think it’s their ticket to quick riches, almost like winning the lottery. Indeed, a select few individuals have been extremely lucky and have gotten rich on pure gambles in the market. Yet, if these people kept trading in the same reckless fashion they were not rich for long. There are many high-risk ways to trade the market and inexperienced people are drawn to these methods by the lure of some fast life-changing cash. “Patience is key. Remember: A jug fills drop by drop.” —Buddha There are 252 trading days in a year. If a day trader can consistently earn just 0.5% on their account per day, they can gain 125% in a year. Alternatively, if a swing trader can earn 1-2% per week, they can gain 50 to 100% on their capital in the same period. Any money manager would be ecstatic to produce such results. If you cannot consistently earn 0.5% per day or 2% per week, what makes you think you can earn 100% in a month, and keep it? If getting rich trading the market was easy every retail trader who attempts to trade would be rich. Not viewing your trading exploits over a set of trades and overemphasizing individual trades Nearly every trader has the tendency to view each trade in a vacuum. In other words, each trade either proves or disproves the trader’s methodology or ability, and determines their emotional state. Any trade that does not meet the trader’s expectations causes frustration and mental distress. The problem is, that no trading system tells you what will happen on any given trade. A trading strategy only gives you an approximation of what you can expect over many trades. There is no other way a strategy can work. You must view each trade as a part of a set — this is what it truly means to think in probabilities. “Nothing ever exists entirely alone; everything is in relation to everything else.” —Buddha When you have a methodology that gives you a positive expectancy, you must learn that you will never know in advance which trade will work. Each trade has its own unique outcome but also exists as a part of many trades. When you have a system that tips the odds in your favor, you must view the big picture and not let losing trades affect your positive mindset.
NASDAQ:NFLXEducation
by Level8Trading
3
Trading Insights #1: Probability & Random DistributionDebriefing In this mini-series, we take a look at what it takes to become a successful trader. The Trading Insights series focuses on concepts rather than analysis and will attempt to get you on the proper path to your trading goals. We believe the ideas contained in this series are the proper base to help you become a professional trader. We define a professional trader as an individual who makes consistent profits month after month, only takes controlled losses, does not succumb to momentary emotions, and does not experience outsized account drawdowns. In the shown example, controlled risk and consistent profit management ensures success. Intro Probability combined with random distribution is an important and often overlooked concept when it comes to trading. Mark Douglas brought the idea of random distribution to many retail traders with his book “Trading In The Zone'', but he is certainly not the originator of a concept rooted in data science and statistics. Our goal is to compress and synthesize these ideas so you’ll have a good understanding after reading this post. Traders who say things such as, “you need to make a large number of trades to make money”, or “don’t let the losses deter you from making more trades”, are ungracefully or unknowingly referring to probability and random distribution. Probability To understand how random distribution relates to trading we must first cover some basics of probability. If we flip a fair coin there is always a 50% chance the coin lands on tails. Each time we flip a coin the likelihood of landing on tails is identical, despite the fact we could flip heads five times in a row. This means the possibility of heads or tails turning up is unrelated to the previous flip. The result of each flip is random relative to the last flip due to circumstances we cannot control, such as the pressure applied to the flip, the airflow in the room, the landing spot, and numerous other factors. Let’s now pretend we rig the coin and change the likelihood of flipping tails to 55%. The same rules govern our new rigged coin – the result of each flip is unrelated and random in relation to the last flip. By rigging the coin in favor of tails we have not changed this fact, but we have tilted the outcome in our favor over many flips. In other words, if the rigged coin is flipped enough times, we will get more tails than heads. The increased probability of flipping tails is reflected over many flips of the coin, not on each individual flip. Random Distribution Once we understand the basics of probability, random distribution is simple to comprehend. If the result of flipping a rigged coin is unrelated to the last flip then the flips that produce tails are randomly distributed throughout a set of flips. For example, a sequence of flips could go: H,H,T,H,T,T,T,H,T,T – there is no discernable pattern in relation to tails turning up. Over a set of flips, however, our rigged coin lands on tails more often than heads. The increased likelihood of the coin landing on tails is reflected over many flips, not on each flip. What does all of this mean in real terms? Individual random events have a consistent outcome over a set of events when the odds are tilted in one direction. Relating The Concepts To Trading 1. Over a series of events where many unknown forces influence each event, the outcome of each event is unrelated to the previous event. In trading, this means the outcome of each market pattern is not related to the last instance of that same pattern. If a pattern results in a winning trade it does not mean the next instance of the pattern will also produce a winner, or vice-versa. 2. Over a set of events, the events that produce a favorable outcome are randomly distributed throughout the set. In trading, this means any attempt to predict which instance of a pattern will produce a favorable outcome is a waste of time. When you attempt to predict which instance of a pattern will produce a winner, you are saying you know what will happen next, which begs the question, if you can’t read the minds of the people who have the financial ability to move prices, how exactly do you know? Hint: you can never know exactly, despite the fact you can guess correctly from time to time. 3. Over a set of events, tipping the odds in one direction means the increased likelihood of a certain outcome is only reflected over many instances of the event. In trading, this means you need a pattern or strategy that tips the odds in our favor, but you must view many instances of your pattern or strategy to see the desired results. In other words, you must not view your trading exploits from trade to trade, but rather, over a sequence of many trades.
Education
by Level8Trading
2