Forex Signals Providers - Scam? Points you should keep an eye onForex Signals Providers - Scam? Points you should keep an eye on before buying.
Points:
- Trading Strategy
- Trade Management / Timing
- Risk Management / Risk Rewards
- Broker
- Result
Trading Strategy:
Well we never know what these traders are really doing. We may see the analysis but we do not have their rules (Trading Plan). So you would need to understand their Price Action Confirmation and many more. How to act in certain scenarios and which is the best approach in these scenarios in order to get the maximum out of it. As we all know forex is a business of probabilities. With the right approach we can minimize our losses and maximize our wins. This part is completely missing. When price hits SL you do not know why and how to take the counter trade or when you can simply reenter. This is the procedure of evaluation.
Trade Management/Timing:
We need to catch every single trade in order to make the same profit like them. This may be very difficult. Especially if you are working at your 9-5 job. Signals may be better for full time traders. But full time traders do not need Signals obviously.
You can not make time management as you are depending to your Signal Provider. At the end it will be necessary to take it as a 9-5job. Otherwise you will miss too many trades. This should not be your approach as a trader. You need to only attach in certain scenarios this is how you ensure high concentration and you can increase your win rate.
Risk Management / Risk Rewards:
Here I see the biggest problem. The majority provider use multiple TP Take Profit Levels like TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4. This does not work properly. It is simply an illusion that they make so much percentage. The only thing what they do is pips. But not the real ROI. This is what will gain you the percentages on your trading account and not pips. Of course there is a Risk Management system with pips but there you have big disadvantages as you can not scale your wins. With a percentage method you minimize your risk/losses and you maximize your wins to the fullest.
Broker:
Every broker has different spreads. Therefore you may not get involved in some positions or you will get stopped out. This point is only important for Signal Services where the SL are super tight.
Result:
Here the majority are just faking and they are claiming big results. So you need to check it. This is very difficult. You need here proven results. When they will show you their 6th Tp level hit then you know that this Channel is just giving you unreal results
Recommendation:
What I suggest is to learn Forex by yourself and from others that are already there where you want to be. Join a community with the same goal. The community should not be too big. Otherwise it will be difficult to interact and also the mentors can not really help you individually.
You need to commit yourself for at least 3years nonstop in order to really understand how this business works. It is like in any other business or 9to5 job. You will not just start from the beginning and you will understand everything. No you go to the school, seminars, ....
It will just take time my friends. But I promise you with CONSISTENCY you will reach it.
"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime"
This is my approach for this industry.
Trading Plan
WHY 95% OF TRADERS FAIL | Top 6 Mistakes to Avoid 🙅♂️🙅♀️
Hey traders,
That is the absolute fact:
95% of traders will fail.
Working with hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the world, studying their trades & following their reasoning I found a lot of commonalities. In this post, we will discuss the top 6 mistakes to avoid to succeed in trading.
🤖 Rather than studying the market structure, rather than learning price action, many traders are looking for a "secret indicator". The one that will accurately indicate when to buy or sell the market.
Failing to find the one, they start looking for a set of indicators giving them magic profit formula. At some stage, they stop analyzing the chart at all. They become obsessed with the indicators.
Remember, naked chart analysis always goes first.
The indicator is the tool in your toolbox that is applied as one of the confirmations.
💫 The expectations & mindset play a very important role here as well.
Many people come in trading with a desire to become rich quick. To buy a subscription to some signal service promising them thousands of pips monthly and quite their 9:5 job.
Or to watch a couple of educational videos about trading and after a couple of days of practicing become a whale of Wallstreet making thousands of dollars with a single trade.
Such a mindset is completely wrong. Instead, you must realize that trading is extremely hard. It will take many years and a lot of blown trading accounts before you get how to trade properly.
Moreover, even once you mature, you won't make millions of dollars. Professional trading is simply about winning slightly more than you lose and then living on a margin.
📉 Poor risk management is the primary reason for blown trading accounts. And here I am not talking about some "advanced" risk management techniques.
Many traders simply trade with oversized lots.
Having high leverage & 1000$ deposit at hand the one can simply open a trading position with 1 standard lot and be kicked in by a spread.
Or they open a trading position without a stop loss. Being wrong in their predictions instead of closing a losing position they keep holding it. And while the market keeps going against them they pray the God for a market reversal. At some moment they get the margin call.
You must learn to calculate a lot size for all your trades. Instead of risking a huge portion of your trading account, learn to set a stop loss and risk no more than 1% of your deposit.
📝 Lastly, discipline plays a crucial role in your success in trading. Once you developed a trading strategy & backtested that you must learn to follow its rules no matter what. Usually, once traders catch a losing streak they start changing their rules, they start adjusting their trading strategy. Remember that losses are inevitable. The only correct way to stay afloat is to be consistent and don't break the rules.
Avoiding these common mistakes your chances to succeed in trading will increase dramatically. I wish you be among 5% of traders who made it.
Did you make these mistakes?
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Trade Entries VS Trade Exits - Do you still make these mistakes?Hi Traders, welcome back to another workshop. In today's workshop, I will be discussing the importance of taking of both Trade Entries and Trade Exits.
Most traders put way too much attention into spotting the specific entry level. But the truth is, closing out a good position at the right time and at the right price make you money. You can have the best strategy and best entry, but if you don't know how to exit, you'd still end up losing money.
Why majority focus so much on trade entries?
Simply because the feeling of catching tops & bottoms give them a sense of gratification and achievement.
Trading isn't about feeling good, it certainly isn't about ego. It's all about how can you organize your mind to control its performance, so you're consistently extracting profits from the markets, by doing the right thing.
Stop aiming for profits, start focusing on the process.
Do the right thing. Again, and again. That's how you make money from whatever you're doing in life.
Comment down below what's your best and worst positions.
Share with anyone you think he/she should be watching this.
How To Achieve Your Personal Success - VisionHi Traders. This workshop is something untypical, not really trading-related but more on life story in general. In this sharing, I'll be discussing why starting from zero is always the toughest.
Trading, investing, and entrepreneurship in general tend to beat you up in the beginning when you first started. Everyone's fueled with passion and motivation in the beginning, most people give up in between. Ultimately, those who can withstand challenges and defeats will stand up firm and stronger. People who will succeed in life are those who are determined, persevere, and with ever-growing passion.
For whatever challenges you're facing right now, remind yourself that it will not last forever. A bright shiny day comes after the rain, keep paddling.
"Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time."
Comment down below what's your goals, and challenges you're currently facing. Share with anyone who need to watch this.
Melody.Finance is a smart contract-based investment Dapp writtenSince its launch in September 2020 as a parallel platform by Binance, Binance Smart Chain (BSC) has been making its presence felt in multiple financial technology markets.
With its low transaction fees, fast processing speeds, and compatibility with Ethereum Virtual Machine, it is offering an unbeatable user experience to NFT, Dapp, and DeFi developers.
Taking all these attributes into account, BSC has revolutionized trading through its exchange with new and exciting Dapps getting launched every day.
Melody.Finance is a yield farming Dapp on BSC. The goal is to make the most of the Binance Smart Chain without having to spend too much time and/or resources.
What is Melody.Finance?
Melody.Finance is a smart contract-based investment Dapp written on the Binance Smart Chain. It became live in early November 2021 and since then, it has seen drastic growth.
Benefitting from Melody.Finance
Melody.Finance lets the investors generate stable daily returns from 7.8% to 17% on their investment. To get started, the smart contract offers the opportunity to invest as little as 0.001 BNB.
The investors can withdraw the generated BNB at any time from their Dapp.
Highlights
Following are the key features of Melody.Finance:
Strong security: The safety of the smart contract comes first and foremost, and Melody.Finance has been audited by HazeCrypto. No vulnerabilities, backdoors, or scam scripts were found in the Melody.Finance Smart Contract.
High ROI: With radical growth since its inception, Melody.Finance is on its journey to becoming one of the highest ROI programs amongst the yield farms on BSC.
Between the deposit period of 7 and 30 days, the investors can get a 119% to 239% return on their investment. The longer the deposit period, the bigger the reward.
Referral Program
Melody.Finance pays an 11.5% commission over 5 levels of referral programs. The investors can share their referral links and allow their friends to join in while making additional profits.
Closing Thoughts
Melody.Finance is grabbing a lot of attention in the crypto industry given its clean and simple interface, and easy functionality.
The smart contract has been experiencing constant growth in terms of user base with its attractive returns and referral levels that offer a wide scope of earnings to its investors.
To get more information about melody.finance, head to their website.
PRICE ACTION TRADING | Bearish Flag Pattern 🔰
Hey traders,
Bearish flag pattern is a classic trend-following pattern.
Being relatively simple to recognize, it is applied in various trading strategies.
⭐️ The pattern itself signifies the correctional movement after a strong bearish wave in a bearish trend.
After setting a new structure low, the asset starts growing in value and the price action legs start forming a rising parallel channel.
What is particular about this growth is the fact that the price grows within the range of the preceding bearish impulse.
🔔 The trigger that we are looking for to sell the market is a bearish breakout of the support of the flag pattern (we need at least a candle close below).
To not be caught by a false breakout, it is highly recommendable to wait for a bearish violation of the last higher low level as well.
Only then the flag breakout is confirmed.
The breakout signifies the end of a correctional movement.
Then the price will most likely return to a bearish trend.
⚡️Trading the market aggressively, one opens a short position on spot just after the breakout candle closes.
⚡️The conservative trader will wait for a retest of the broken support of the flag for a safer entry.
✔️Safest stop will lie strictly above the highest wick (the last higher high) within the flag.
✔️Initial target will be based on the closest key structure support.
Learn to recognize this pattern and be disciplined to wait for its confirmed breakout. Only then a high trading performance will be achieved.
What pattern do you want to learn in the next post?🤔
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Why You Should Never Focus On The Outcome?Hi Traders, here come another workshop regarding " Why you should never focus on the outcome ." Along my own life journey, I've been through there and I've had encountered many people who are constantly comparing themselves to another or envying another.
The way I see life is that everything has a fair return. The achievements in your later stage of life is the by-product of your earlier sacrifices. If you're unwilling to pay the suffers now, most likely you will live your life like the 90% of the ordinary. Everyone has a different progress and settle at a different pace. By focusing on the outcome, not only you're dragging yourself down, you're also directly stagnating your personal growth process. Things you should never do if you're currently in a transition into a better self
1. Never compare yourself to another
- By comparing yourself, you're focusing on the dollars return (monetary return). Then, by doing so, you'd tend to forget your initial motivation - why did you started?
2. Never forget why you started
- Why? In life, we all started something with an initial sparks and burning passion. But somehow the majority turns into the majority because they've forgotten their goals and motivation. Or they simply give up so easily that they're not taking their dream seriously.
3. Loss track of progress
- By comparing to someone elses' life, you're not focusing on what your own dreams are. If someone else if making more money than you, remind yourself three main points
A. They've got a different dream and goal
B. Whatever amount they're making, it's their own progress, mind your own business!
C. Everything settle at its own pace. Someone's making big money at their early age but go broke later one. Some busy planting seeds in the beginning but enjoy the fruition later.
Comment down below what's your biggest aspiration.
If you enjoy the content, make sure you follow my profile and give me a thumbs up for daily fx forecast & educational content.
Price Psychology what happening with in priceThis is meant to serve as a training guide into understanding how chart patterns are ultimately formed via prices bought and sold.
This is where the focus of this video is. We are always wanting to know rather than the pattern that is forming, the prices that are
being bought and sold on the chart.
For this we use Quarters Theory, The segmenting on the chart into equal slices to understand where prices are at and where they could go.
On my highest timeframe I like to stick to 1000 pip sections the value of these sections changes this system is universal and can be used on any asset for ease of understanding it was preformed on a stock chart.
Within 1000 pips we have four sections
Four $100 zones
Four $50 zones
Sixteen: $25 zones
On a monthly chart we focus on 1000 pip sections, on a weekly is 100 and on a daily its 10.
Segmenting the char in this nature allows for an understanding of how price has reacted on different time frames based up the price or zone that it is in. From this point of view we may then begin to see recognizably patterns happening at specific prices that would be attributed to bar chart or price action patterns.
Be Prepared - In control of the Survival ModeHI Traders, here come another workshop on being prepared for any possible outcomes in trading. Whether you're a new or experienced traders, at one point, you'd definitely face some obstacles completely out of your comfort zone, where you're just stumbling without any clue on how to solve it. Here sums up 4 key elements on how to be in-control of any possible outcome
1. Flexible
- Successful traders have extremely good flexibility. Regardless of what's put infront of their face, they adapt.
- Market conditions vary from day by day, so when the ordinary things/ setups aren't working well, what's wrong? Most likely either the market condition has changed, or your mindset is changing.
- This is why having multiple strategies to trade across different market conditions are so important. If you're only focusing on a specific market condition (eg. Trend Trader), then knowing how to identify when the market is in a non-trending condition is crucial to prevent yourself from making unusual decisions or taking unnecessary risks.
2. In control of the Survival Mode
- The Fight-or-Flight response refers to how humans have high tendency of making impulsive decision based on unknown fear.
- By managing the Survival Mode , you're truly able to avoid yourself from making irrational decision due to any unusual market condition, such as a sudden volatility spike.
- When you're in a deep drawdowns, ONLY think in-terms of probability and possibility . Question yourself: "If I continue trading, would it lead to a snowfall effect?" OR "If I stop trading, would it affect my long-term expectancy?"
3. Emotional-detachment
- Great traders always have a Poker face, not because they're inhuman, but because they've been humbled by the markets way too many time.
- Sharpen the ability to spot where you have a high tendency to deviate from your plan, then prevent yourself from making impulsive decisions.
- Losing traders are in the blue moon when they've got a good position running, and being extremely negative when they're having drawdowns.
- If you're overly attached to the results or outcome on any particular trades, it basically hints you that you should probably stop trading and focus on your reflective process.
4. Problem-solver
- Avoid being too harsh on yourself.
- Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So stop excessively blaming yourself based on any particular decision, give yourself a pat in the shoulder, and ask yourself "how can i do it better next time?"
- Being positive is one huge element in becoming a successful trader. You don't want to get so beaten up until a point where you're nervous clicking the bid & ask buttons. Build up the necessary confidence to understand that you may not win this trade, but in the long-term I will always come out as a winner.
Let me know in the comment below what's your worst trading experience!
Hope all of you have a good trading week, take care and trade safe.
If you enjoy the content, make sure you follow my profile and give me a thumbs up for daily fx forecast & educational content.
Smart Rebalance StrategyThe smart rebalance strategy is a holding kind of strategy that works like the following:
The user chooses a certain number of pairs, an initial capital and a rebalance timeframe.
The capital is split equally between each pair. (ex. for 2 pairs: 50% on each).
On each rebalance timeframe (on the bar it happens), pairs balance who grew bigger than 50% will be redistributed to other pairs, making sure that after the transaction, the total capital is once again split equally through all pairs. This means selling pairs whose price went higher than the others, and buying those who dropped. In other words, selling high and buying low.
The inital capital corresponds to the quote currency of all pairs, so each pair must have the same quote currency. (ex: USDT or BTC markets)
On each interval, the strategy will send orders for each pair saying whether to buy or to sell, and the quantity.
Goal of the strategy is to grow your initial capital while splitting it through several pairs and keeping the pairs repartition unchanged.
How To Calculate Risk/Reward To Trade & Invest In Crypto MarketHi everyone:
Today I want to make this educational video on how to calculate your risk/reward in trading and investing in the cryptocurrency market.
Many newcomers in the industry are not aware of the importance of risk management. So today let's give out different examples of them on how to properly calculate the $, %, and setting the SL/TP.
This video is intended to help traders and investors to understand how to calculate the amount to risk per trade, or per investment purpose.
I will give different examples of going long and short in trading, as well as buying coins for the purpose of investment.
Doesn't matter what crypto broker exchange you use, this calculation/formula will work, you will just need to do some simple math to get to the right numbers.
Example 1:
Want to go long on BTC in a trade
Scenario:
Trading Account $12,000
Risk 1% of your trading account
Want to go long on BTC when price hits $70,000
You want the Stop Loss @$66,000,
and a TP @ $80,000
Calculation:
Calculate your 1% of the trading account:
$12,000 Account x 0.01 $120 per trade
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL amount
$120 / $4000 = 0.03
Set your entry order or market order
for 0.03 BTC @ $70,000 price
0.03 x $70,000 = $2,100
(This is the amount you will need in your trading account
to execute this position.
If you have leverage then its less $ needed)
Set your SL at $66,000
If price hits your SL, your order would be
0.03 BTC x $66,000 = $1,980
$2,100 - 1,980 = $120 = 1% of your account
Set your TP at $80,000
If price hits your TP, your order would be
0.03 BTC x $80,000 = $2,400
$2,400 - $2,100 = $300 = 2.5% of your account
Example 2:
Want to go long on ADA in a trade
Scenario:
Trading Account $800
Risk 1% of your trading account
Want to go long on ADA when price hits $2.30
You want the Stop Loss @1.70
Calculation:
Calculate your 1% of the trading account:
$800 Account x 0.01 = $8 per trade
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL
$8 / $0.60 = 13.34
Set your entry order or market order
for 13.34 ADA @ 2.30 price
13.34 x 2.30 = $30.68
(This is the amount you will need in your trading account
to execute this position.
If you have leverage then its less $ needed)
Set your SL at $1.70
If price hits your SL, your order would be
13.34 ADA x $1.70 = $22.68
$30.68 - $22.68 = $8 = 1% of your account
Set your TP at $4.00
If price hits your TP, your order would be
13.34 ADA x $4.00 = $53.36
$53.36 - $30.68 = $22.68 = 2.83% of your account
Example 3:
Want to go short on TRX in a trade
Scenario:
Trading Account $54,000
Risk 1.5% of your trading account
Want to go short on TRX when price hits $0.11
You want the Stop Loss @ $0.13
Calculation:
Calculate your 1.5% of the trading account:
$54,000 Account x 0.0150 = $810 per trade
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the SL
$810 / $0.02 = 40,500
Set your entry order or market order
for 40,500 TRX @ 0.11 price
40,500 x 0.11 = $4,455
(This is the amount you will need in your trading account
to execute this position.
If you have leverage then its less $ needed)
Set your SL at $0.13
If price hits your SL, your order would be
40,500 TRX x $0.13 = 5,265
$5265 - $4455 = $810 = 1.5% of your account
Set your TP at $0.07
If price hits your TP, your order would be
40,500 TRX x $0.07 = $2,835
$4,455 - $2,835 = $1,620 = 2% of your account
Example 4:
Want to buy ETH to hold for long term as investment
Scenario:
Investing Account $20,000
Risk 10% of your investing account
Want to buy ETH to hold for long terms
Want to enter when price hits $4,900
Calculation:
Calculate your 10% of the investing account:
$20,000 Account x 0.10 = $2,000 per investment
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the price you want to enter
$2,000 / $4,900 = 0.4082
Set your entry order or market order
for 0.4082 ETH @ $4,900 price
0.4082 x $4,900 = $2000
(This is the amount you will need in your investing account
to execute this buy.)
You want to lose no more than 25% of your original $2,000 investment.
$2,000 x 0.75 = $1,500
$1,500 / 0.4082 = $3,674.67
Set your alert and SL at $3,674.67
If price hits your alert/SL, your order would be
0.4082 ETH x $3,674.679 = $1500
$2,000 - $1500 = $500 = 25% of $2,000
You want to gain about 50% of your original investment before selling.
$2,000 x 1.50 = $3,000
$3,000 / 0.4082 = $7,349.34
Set your alert and TP at $7,349.34
If price hits your TP, your order would be
0.4082 ETH x $7,349.34 = 3,000.00
$3,000 - $2,000 = $1,000 = 50% of $2,000
Example 5:
Want to buy MATIC to hold for long term as investment
Scenario:
Investing Account $1,500
Risk 20% of your investing account
Want to buy MATIC to hold for long terms
Want to enter when price hits $2.25
Calculation:
Calculate your 20% of the investing account:
$1,500 Account x 0.20 = $300 per investment
Divide the $ you willing to risk to the price you want to enter
$300 / $2.25 = 133.34 MATIC
Set your entry order or market order
for 133.34 MATIC @ $2.25 price
133.34 x $2.25 = $300
(This is the amount you will need in your investing account
to execute this buy.)
You want to lose no more than 50% of your original $300 investment.
$300 x 0.50 = $150
$150 / 133.34 = $1.1249
Set your alert and SL at $1.1249
If price hits your alert/SL, your order would be
133.34 MATIC x $1.1249 = $149.99
$300 - $149.99 = $150.01 = 50% of $300
You want to gain about 75% of your original investment before selling.
$300 x 1.75 = $525
$525/133.34 = $3.9373
Set your alert and TP at $3.9373
If price hits your TP, your order would be
133.34 MATIC x $3.9373 = $525
525 - $300 = $225 = 75% of $300
Any questions, comments and feedback welcome to let me know.
If you like more of these contents, like, subscribe/follow and comment for me to keep doing them. :)
Jojo
Substitution Spreads Can Identify ValueMarket structure is the various puzzle pieces that can reveal valuable clues about the path of least resistance of prices. Fundamental analysis involves pouring through supply and demand data to forecast price direction. However, market structure can simplify the process as each jigsaw puzzle piece will complete an emerging picture. Market structure reflects price relationships that develop over time. Each commodity has idiosyncratic supply and demand characteristics. Price differentials in intra or intercommodity spreads can assist market participants in arriving at high-odds directional forecasts.
Substitution spreads are another part of market structure
The platinum versus gold spread- Financial substitution leads to value assumptions
Oil, coal, and natural gas- Energy substitutes can reveal clues
Think outside the box when analyzing a commodity- It’s all about choices
Over the past weeks, we have looked at how processing spreads provide clues about the supply and demand side of a commodity’s fundamental equation. We looked at term structure, backwardation, and contango and how price differentials for one delivery date versus another are real-time indicators of deficit or glut conditions. Location spreads shed light on the price of a commodity in one region versus another, while quality spreads tell us how different compositions or sizes can influence prices compared to benchmarks and put upward or downward pressure on futures prices.
Those spreads are all intra-commodity spreads. This week, we will investigate how inter-commodity spreads play a role in price direction. Substitution spreads reflect the price of one commodity versus another when they can serve the same or similar purposes when prices dictate.
Substitution spreads are another part of market structure
Markets reflect the crowd’s wisdom. Crowds tend to be wise consumers; they search for value and the best deal. When the price of a commodity rises to a level where a substitute makes more economic sense, many consumers will alter their buying behavior. Think of a trip to the supermarket. When shoppers plan to make a juicy steak for dinner and find out that a pork chop is a far better economic choice, they often choose pork over beef.
I like to call the live cattle versus lean hog futures spread the what’s for dinner spread, and it is an inter-commodity, substitution spread.
The quarterly chart of the price of live cattle futures divided by lean hogs shows that while the spread has an upward bias, the long-term average or pivot point is around the 1.40:1 level or 1.4 pounds of pork value in each pound of beef value. When the spread is above 1.4:1, pork is a wiser economic choice for consumers; when below the mean, beef is the optimal choice. While the spread can diverge from the midpoint, it has tended to revert to the norm since the turn of this century.
The chart of the June 2022 live cattle lean hog spread shows the relationship is right around the long-term average, indicating that beef and hog prices are at a long-term “fair value” level.
The beef versus pork spread is an inter-commodity barometer for consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the corn-soybean inter-commodity spread can serve as a guide for producer behavior.
The chart of the price of nearby soybean futures divided by corn futures shows that the pivot point dating back to the late 1960s is around the 2.4 bushels of corn value for each bushel of soybean value. Farmers are business people who work each crop year to create the optimal return on their acreage. Many can plant either corn or beans on their land. They grow the crop that offers the best return. When the corn-bean ratio spread is above 2.4:1, soybeans tend to provide the best financial result; when below the pivot point, corn is the more profitable choice.
The corn-bean relationship is most useful when looking at new crop futures before and at the beginning of the annual planting season.
The chart of the price of new crop November 2022 soybean futures divided by new crop December 2022 corn futures illustrates at below 2.26:1, on November 12, 2021, farmers are more likely to plant corn than beans as the coarse grain is more expensive and offers a better historic return than the oilseed.
The meat and grain inter-commodity spreads are guides. Many other factors could influence the levels, which are additional variables in the calculus of analyzing commodity prices. For example, a pork shortage in China because of disease could lift pork prices, or an outbreak that impacts cattle could do the same to beef. Since corn is the primary input in producing US ethanol, the shift in US energy policy could shift the corn-bean spread for fundamental reasons. However, these types of spreads that measure current price relationships versus historical means can be a helpful tool that may validate other assumptions.
The platinum versus gold spread- Financial substitution leads to value assumptions
In the world of precious metals, platinum and gold have far different supply and demand characteristics, but the two precious metals share some similarities. Platinum and gold have industrial applications, while they also have financial properties as means of exchange and stores of wealth for investors.
It is a challenge to label the price of any commodity cheap or expensive because the current market price is always the correct price as it is the level where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent market, the exchange. However, comparing the price of gold to platinum allows us to use the terms cheap and expensive on a historical basis.
The chart of the nearby platinum futures price minus the nearby gold futures price dating back to the early 1970s shows that from 1974 through 2014, platinum mostly traded at a premium to gold. While the spread has been as high as over a $1,000 premium for platinum to as low as a $1,000 discount to gold over the period, over the past 47 years, platinum has traded at a premium to gold nearly 85% of the time. It has only been over the recent seven years, since 2014, that platinum has been lower than the yellow metal. Many factors can explain platinum’s weakness versus gold, but on a historical basis, platinum is historically inexpensive compared to its precious yellow cousin.
At a $780 discount for platinum compared to gold, some investors have been stockpiling platinum because the inter-commodity spreads reflect compelling historical value for the metal.
Oil, coal, and natural gas- Energy substitutes can reveal clues
Energy prices can be highly volatile. While the world moves to address climate change by reducing the production and consumption of fossil fuels in favor of alternative renewable energy sources, hydrocarbons continue to power the world. When it comes to electricity production, power generation can come from many different sources. The world may be moving towards solar, wind, hydroelectric, and nuclear generations, but oil, gas, and coal continue to be significant energy sources.
Coal has been a four-letter word for many years, and many mining companies abandoned coal mining. The recent surge in oil and gas prices caused an almost perfect bullish storm in the coal market. Low supply levels and rising demand pushed prices to record highs in October.
The chart of thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, shows the rise to a high of $280 per ton in October 2021, surpassing the 2008 $224 previous high. The spike higher in coal was a function of rising oil and gas prices, which is the essence of the inter-commodity spread within the fossil fuel sector.
Crude oil and natural gas are highly volatile commodities. There is always the potential for substitution when prices diverge from historical means.
The quarterly chart of the price of nearby NYMEX crude oil futures divided by the price of nearby NYMEX natural gas futures shows that the average of the high and the low since 1990, when natural gas futures began trading, is around the 20-25:1 of the natural gas price measured against the crude oil price. Below that band, natural gas tends to be historically expensive, while above the average level, crude oil becomes historically expensive compared to gas.
The daily chart of the relationship in the December futures contracts shows below the 17:1 level; natural gas is cheaper than oil based on the historical relationship over more than three decades.
Think outside the box when analyzing a commodity- It’s all about choices
Inter-commodity or substitutions spreads create a basis for comparison. Many other factors can explain deviations from historical norms but understanding and comparing the current levels to history is a valuable tool that can lead to a more robust level of analysis.
On their own, substitution spreads are insufficient to make conclusive trading or investing decisions as deviations can last for years or even decades, moving pivot points higher or lower. However, used in conjunction with processing spreads, term structure, location, and quality spreads, they are another puzzle piece that can reveal and validate assumptions about the path of least resistance for a commodity’s price.
I will be off next week but will return on Monday, November 29, with the final piece in this series and the final piece of the puzzle, the power of the crowd.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Why Do You Need a Trading Journal? 📝
Hey traders,
📖 Trading Journal is a crucial element in your trading education.
Even though the majority tends to neglect it, in fact, it is considered to be the essential part of a daily routine of a professional trader.
In this post, we will discuss why you should keep a trading journal & how it enhances your trading performance.
Let's start with the obvious:
✍️ Trading journal is applied for recording your trading positions:
winning and losing ones.
With that, you can monitor your current performance, identify the mistakes that were made and examine your decisions.
❌ Analyzing the errors you learn your weaknesses & the situations when it is preferable not to trade. You adjust your trading strategy accordingly in order to avoid similar mistakes in future.
💪 Examining the winning trades you learn about your strengths.
You identify the trading instruments, the trading setups where your strategy reaches the highest accuracy.
⚖️ Working with the numbers you can measure your investing exposure and calculate your account drawdowns. You can analyze your losing streaks & your long-term/mid-term/short-term account statistics.
📈 Analyzing the figures you can measure your progress over time by comparing your current results with the old ones.
😡 Keeping the record of your emotions, you can measure & quantify the psychological element of your trading. You may calculate the percentage of emotional decisions being made and their effect.
🌟 Consistent journaling makes you disciplined. It teaches you to strictly follow the rules of your trading plan & constantly learn from your mistakes in order to hasten the path towards a more disciplined and profitable trading career.
A trading journal should be simple and tailored to your specific trading style and the goals you would like to achieve.
I hope that my words will inspire you to keep a trading journal!
Do you have the one already?
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Ichimoku StrategyI have been asked how to use the Ichimoku Strategy so here is a quick breakdown on how the cloud works. Included is a picture Displaying the different aspects of what o look for and the terminology used. I am also including a few links to two youtube videos and websites/articles I have used to better understand this strategy. I have only been using this strategy for about two months so I am by no means a master of it. Also, don't forget to use indicators for strength and to use technical analysis to decide on a trade path. While the cloud works great, trades can be missed due to the following rules. A general rule of thumb, don't take a trade unless your trading with the trend as well as at a good entry as defined further along in this discussion.
A few things to remember, never trade if the Chiku Span, Tenken Sen and/or Kijun Sen are inside the cloud. If one of these lines has not crossed over for your trade setup, long or short, don't enter wait until all three pass through the cloud.
The indicator as to whether you want to short or long is determined by Senkou A. If Senkou A is above Senkou B, a green cloud, a long position is most desirable, if Senkou A is below Senkou B, a red cloud, a short position is most desirable.
Pay attention to Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen as they can help determine a desirable entry vs a non desirable entry. If Tenkan Sen is above Kijun Sen, look for long position. If Tenkan Sen is below Kijun Sen a short would be more favorable. Another aspect to keep in mind for entering a trade if it is passed through the cloud and the original entrance was missed is waiting for Tenken Sen to cross below Kijun Sen and to then start to cross over for a long position. For a short, wait for it to cross above and then cross back over and dip below. sometimes a trade can be favorable when Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen almost meet then diverge apart continuing in the same direction.
Chiku Span is useful in seeing the action of the trade. It shows what is occuring in a clearer fashion than studying the chart solely. If Chiku Span starts to move sideways and catches up to the candles, Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen then it might be a good time to look at closing a trade.
These are a few resources I have used to help better understand the cloud.
www.investopedia.com
www.fidelity.com
www.youtube.com
www.youtube.com
Trading Success Isn't As Smooth As You Imagined!Hi traders, here we are on another workshop. In this workshop, I will be elaborating my personal trading journey with my sincerest opinion. Here are 5 stages you will go through becoming a Consistently Profitable trader
Phase 1 - Constantly losing big
• This phase is where your trading journey begin. You're filled with passion, your subconscious & conscious mind are blinded by the imagination of trading success.
• You believed that trading isn't that difficult, and you're one of the top 10% that will achieve consistent profitability within a short period of time. Most of my students and members approached me during their first year of trading, fueled with passion, and thought that they should be achieving their trading goals with limited effort. But the ugly truth is, 80% - 90% of them got smashed by the markets pretty harsh, and left trading later on.
• You have no idea what you're doing, you have little to no knowledge and experience.
- If this is you, what you should be doing now, is to absorb information like a sponge and keep striving.
Phase 2 - Losing less
• This is when you come to a realization that you're no different than most of the traders. You're probably scared by the markets, you begin stepping back a little bit.
• You realized if you keep doing what you're currently doing, it's just the matter of time you will blow up more accounts again, and again. You clearly know what you're not supposed to do and what you're supposed to do, but with a
lack of direction. You absorb everything and you test out whatever information you received. You jumped from strategy to strategy, courses to courses, and webinars to webinars.
- If this is you, you should be focusing on identifying your strength & weakness, and stop confusing yourself with overloaded information. Spend more time on reading yourself, and admit your mistakes.
Phase 3 - Breakeven
• Most traders at this stage have a clear goal and understand what they're doing wrong. But most of them have no clear direction and resources on where and how to begin with.
• You probably have a proper trading plan, money management skill, and a healthy mindset, but you just need guidance.
- If this is you, I'd suggest you to find mentorship to fast-pace your learning curve. List out all your strategies to examine which one works best by reviewing your journal.
Phase 4 - Inconsistent wins
• If you're able to achieve this phase, you are one of the very top traders.
• Traders at this stage should have a proper trading plan, a specific trading system/ style, with an unbeatable mindset. Remember to NEVER distract yourself again with excess information.
- If this is you, you should be working on refinement and improvement. Focus on the details such as the probability of success on each setup, breaking them down into various parts, such as entry timing, effective Trade Management
(Scale-in & Scale-Out), exits, etc...
- If you are at this stage, remember to NEVER distract yourself again with excess information. Focus.
Phase 5 - Consistently profitable
• Successful traders 'dance' with the market. Trading has become a systematic process with little to no emotion attached.
- What you need to do now, is to focus on scaling up your trading size. You can either compound your account slowly, or start building a solid track records and start finding potential investors. Good traders always trade big, because the ultimate goal of trading is to make money.
Do not have the misperception that once you've reached the consistently profitable phase, you should be making a lot of money. Good traders are those who never deviate from their trading plan, with consistency and full of motivation. It's always fine to step back a little bit, as long as you're progressing.
Comment down below where are you at in your trading journey!
Do not forget to like if you enjoy the sharing. Trade safe and take care.
Skill VS Luck - Becoming a Consistently Profitable TraderHi traders, here we are on another workshop. Today I'll be sharing some of the points on differentiating skill or luck trading. Majority of the traders have absolutely no clue on are they doing the right things or not? Here's a few key points:
Skill
1. Winners and Losers
- If you are a skilled trader, you're someone who understand the probable and possible in trading. There's no guarantee on any single trade whether it's a winner or loser. Remember, the short-term outcome in trading is completely random, what's more important is to come out being profitable in the long-term. Never judge your performance based on the short-term outcome, think long-term.
2. Good Risk Management
- Good traders always have effective risk management in place. Not any single trade is able cause damage on their capital, and they truly understand how to detach themselves from negative emotions.
3. Repeatable
- Good traders have a repeatable process, that allows them to tackle the market in the same way every single day.
4. Proper Planning
- Good traders rarely deviate from their initial plan, as they understand that a planned trade is a good trade regardless of the outcome. Any trade taken out of impulsive behaviour, is considered a bad trade regardless of the outcome.
5. Consistency
- Good traders have a set of routine and action plan. To achieve consistent results, you must have a consistent performance.
6. Execution
- Good traders have little to no hesitation when it comes to executing their trades. They execute their plan without second guessing or doubt.
Luck
1. No loser
- Most gurus' or lucky traders would promote themselves having 80% - 90% strike rates, which could never happen in reality. The only way you can achieve such a high win rate is to have a Profit Factor of less than 1. In fact, most of the best traders out there have a strike rate of 40-50%.
2. Excessive Risk Exposure
- Losing traders have no idea how to isolate themselves from a bad state of mind. They're constantly putting up a lot of risk on the table regardless of having no clue on what's going on in the markets. The sense of urgency is rushing them on taking unnecessary risk.
3. Unrepeatable
- Losing traders constantly take trades out of their trading plan, which is not duplicable. If you're taking trades that is unrepeatable, most likely it's a lucky trade and you shouldn't be happy about it even if it turns out to be a winning position.
4. Impulsive Behaviour
- Losing traders deviate from their initial plan due to uncontrolled emotion. They're taking trades they're not supposed to take, then regrets later on.
5. No routine
- Losing traders have no daily routine. They're always blind firing all over any 'seems' profitable position. Most of them possess of potential over-trading habits.
6. Hope & Praying
- Losing traders are constantly looking for the 'best trade' that'd give them an enormous return. Most of them have no trading plan and proper Risk Management in place, causing them to experience an emotional rollercoaster on any particular position when it gets out of hand.
"Chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken." - Warren Buffett
Let me know in the comment below what's your worst trading nightmare!
If you enjoy the content, make sure you follow my profile and give me a thumbs up for daily fx forecast & educational content.
8 Trading Habits of Successful TradersConsistently profitable traders have a lot of things in common. Watching how they act and following their ideas & thoughts we can spot a lot of commonalities among them. In this post, I have collected 8 trading habits that a trader should have to become successful.
1️⃣ - Realistic Expectation & Vision
Many traders, most often beginners, commonly fall for the trap of wishful thinking. When analysing the charts, they usually only view the market from one bias and only perceive price heading in one direction.
And this is typically the one that their own analysis is pointing towards. However, going into each trade with a realistic expectation that the market doesn't care what you think may happen, and being prepared for a trade to go wrong will help keep you level headed.
2️⃣ - Anticipation of Different Outcomes
Anything can happen in financial markets and for this reason, professional traders always justify their decisions in probabilities.
They understand that 100% chances do not exist so looking at all possible probabilities before entering any trades, the trader is always ready for completely different outcomes and accepts each and every move given by the market.
3️⃣ - Emotional Stability
The market is a wild beast who always wants to bite us and most of the time it manages to do that e.g. drawdowns & losing streaks...
Those who trade for at least 1 year know how unpredictable and unstable the market can be. A perfectly looking trading setup can easily turn into a big losing trade.
Of course, that is painful and of course with more & more losses, the anxiety will begin to chase us, the stress will overwhelm us and you may begin to start second guessing yourself.
Only by remaining stable and calm, you will manage to overcome the negative periods. Learn to control your emotions, learn to take losses!
4️⃣ - Continuous Learning
The markets are infinitely deep in their nature. Trading & constant monitoring of the market always unveil new, uncharted elements and things.
Throughout all my years of day trading, I can't help wondering how many new things I learn each and every day. With continuous learning you evolve, you become better and it improves your trading performance & results.
5️⃣ - Flexibility & Adaptivity
The markets are always changing. If you were trading before COVID crisis, I guess you feel how the reality among us shifted. With fundamental changes in our daily lives, the markets changed as well.
It is hard to say what exactly has altered though, however, we all can feel it. In order to survive in a constantly changing environment we must always be adapting and never stagnant.
6️⃣ - Trade Journaling
Pro traders always assess their past performance & results. They track each and every trading position that they opened.
Both losing trades and winning trades require analysis and observations. Only by studying the past results the trader can improve his trading performance and evolve. Only by identifying mistakes & peculiar commonalities, the trader learns to lose less than he makes.
7️⃣ - Risk Management
90% of traders lose 90% of their funds within 90 days and under 90 trades . This is a well known statistic in the trading industry and aside from psychological factors, it mainly boils down to incorrect risk management.
If you're looking to survive in this game and have a long, prosperous career in trading. You must have your risk management locked down.
One beneficial risk management habit to develop is to not enter any trades unless they have a risk:reward ratio of at least 1:3+ .
8️⃣ - Trading Plan
Sticking to your trading plan is one way of promoting long-term success throughout your trading journey. Undoubtedly, you will go through many psychological ups & downs, mental battles and periods of low confidence.
Abiding by your own trading plan will help assist in ensuring that you don't step out of line from your own trading rules and allow you to stop yourself from developing bad habits overtime.
9️⃣ - Constant Practice
Professional traders never stop, they always watch the charts, they always monitor the prices, and follow the market.
Trading requires constant TRADING. Just spending one single week on a vacation without charts, you can not imagine how hard it is to return back. The trading skills must be constantly maintained.
Don't wait too long for "CONFIRMATION"!Hi Guys
A popular concept in the world of trading, especially among technical traders and chartists is to wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
This means you have a Signal, for example, a price action pattern and now you wait for the markets to confirm that pattern before you enter. The idea, of course, is to filter out bad trades this way and to gain confidence before entering the trade.
But that confidence might come at a very high price in the long run. The problem with waiting for the market to confirm your trading idea is that this "Confirmation" often already is your profit! In other words, the Signal has worked and you would have been paid to take the risk and trade it.
And that's what you get paid for as a trader, you try to anticipate a price move you believe is going to happen before everyone else does. Please notice that this is true despite your trading style. You might hear statements like „I just follow the markets, I don't try to anticipate what's going to happen." (usually, these come from traders following some kind of trend following approach). But what they really mean is that instead of trying to get into a trade early anticipating the markets to reverse direction, they get in late anticipating that the markets will move even further in the direction it has already been moving. Of course nothing wrong with that, but in either case, traders anticipate a future price move they want to profit from and it's important to be aware of that fact.
Another example is trading a specific support/resistance level. Sure the risk to buy into a support level while the market is in free fall is risky. But that's precisely why these trades often offer you great profit potential. In case the trade works out, you'll get paid for the risk you took. But again…once you see that huge reversal price bar on your chart that bounced nicely off that support level - you probably already missed the opportunity.
You now know that you've been right. That really was a support level and market participants bought again at that price. Because of that price moved up and that's why you now see that huge reversal bar. But that move is over now…and those who took the risk and bought at the level are now taking their profits - hopefully, you're not the one buying from them now.
I could come up with many more examples like waiting for an indicator to confirm a trade etc, but the point to consider is that whenever you wait for confirmation you give up a significant amount of potential profits. And more often than not, these potential profits cost more than a couple of losing trades you might filter out waiting for confirmation. Your job here is to find a good compromise between getting in too early due to a Signal coming from market noise and getting in too late due to a Signal that misses most of the opportunity.
The Ambush trading method, for example, is an extreme case, it gets into trades again the ongoing short-term trend all the time. But that's precisely the idea behind it, trying to anticipate where that short-term trend is likely to end. Sounds risky? Well, looking at the long-term results it's actually a lot riskier to be on the other side of these trades ;)
DO YOU BELIEVE CONFIRMATION?
Three Steps to Become A PROFESSIONAL TRADER 👨💻👩💻
Hey traders,
The road to consistently profitable trading is hard and dangerous. This path can be split into three main milestones. Each of those requires discipline, time & patience.
📚The first step is your trading education.
Starting with a basic understanding of what are the financial markets & how they work and finishing with the sophisticated techniques of risk management, so many things must be learned.
In the beginning you will be most likely paralyzed by the complexity of the whole system. Even the choice of a trading education provider is not that simple taking into consideration the sheer amount number sources that could be found on the internet.
It is highly advisable for you to accompany your trading education with demo account trading so that you could apply what you’ve learned in practice.
💸It is imperative to invest in your education, while simultaneously saving up for your first(but not last) real trading account.
Spending your money on education & then saving in order to build your first trading account, a sufficient amount of money is required.
Be prepared for failures. Be prepared to blow your first and second trading account & fund it again. Be prepared that the majority of premium educational sources won't meet your expectations.
I don't know any trader who succeeded in trading without investing a huge amount of money in that.
👨💻With the money being invested & with the knowledge gained, you must practice on a real account.
You must choose the trading strategy that is appealing to you and start trading with that.
Quite soon you will realize that theoretical knowledge has nothing in common with real market conditions.
You will change trading strategies one after another until you finally find the one that truly makes sense to you.
Then you will spend a couple of years playing with that, learning the rules & constantly polishing your trading plan.
🏁At some moment you will stop losing. At some moment your trading account will start growing steadily and you will become a consistently profitable trader.
As the market conditions change constantly. You must be vigilant & learn to survive in a changing environment. Education, active investing & practice are required from you to keep being afloat.
I hope that this article will help you to build realistic expectations concerning trading.
If you are ready to learn a lot, invest money & practice many years not making a dime, then one day you will definitely make it.
Do you agree with my thoughts?
❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
5 Key Advices To Share With Trader Who Is Struggling In TradingHello everyone:
Lately many of you have messaged me about getting FOMO and entering trades without confirmations.
In addition you can't seem to “not” enter trades when the market hasn't shaped up to your strategy and entry criteria.
I am hoping in today’s educational video it can help some of you guys to get back on track.
I want to share 5 main pieces of advice that can help out traders who are currently struggling.
These are experiences and lessons that I accumulate throughout the 8 years of trading and in hope to help some of you who are struggling in your current journey of trading.
1. Do “NOT” think about get rich quick in trading
-Trading is a marathon, not a sprint
-90-95% traders fail due to a combination of: Greed, FOMO, mindset/emotion, risk management, trading psychology.
-Trading is not a get rich quick scheme, but it can produce consistent, sustainable passive income if you can put in the time and effort
-Most try to jump to the result right away, without going through the journey, that is not how life works.
2. No trading strategies, style, method can give you 100% strike rate
-Trading is probability, not right or wrong.
-Understand you can have the best strategy in the world, and still not be profitable.
- Technical, Fundamental, Algo, EA...etc can all not work. This is why risk management is important to not over risk, over trade, over leverage your trading account
3. Backtest and journal
-Backtest your strategy so your brain acknowledges and recognizes it over and over again.
-Slowly build up confidence in your strategy and method. IT will come to you like second nature
-Journal all your wins and losses so you can review them. Work on them, accept your mistakes to grow and improve.
4. Control your EGO
-Human beings have ego to prove others are wrong and they are right
-We refuse to admit we made the error/mistakes, and blame others/external as the cause.
-Acknowledge that in trading, stop blaming the market, the broker, the mentor, the strategy...etc.
-Don't take things personally and be offended by it.
5. Never Give Up
-I blew several accounts in the beginning of trading career, gave up and quit trading multiple times
-I always ended up coming back to trading. After taking time off. Whether that is weeks or months in the beginning journey.
-No one is born into a trader, just like no one is born into a doctor, lawyer.
-If trading was that easy, then everyone would be rich.
-Success is measure by how many times you get back up when you failed
I hope these pointers can help you guys to get more focus and get back on track in trading.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know, thank you
Jojo
Below I will share others educational videos that have direct relations to the topics above:
Trading Psychology: How to deal & manage losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?
Prevent Blowing an account by backtesting:
Risk Management 101
The Opening Range TradeThis is one of my favorite trades to make because of the outsized risk reward ratio that it can offer. We're talking 10:1 or better some days. We are going to look at an example of an opening range trade in the S&P 500 E-mini this past Friday, October 29, 2021.
What is the opening range? In the days of screen trading, the opening range can be considered the first 60 seconds of the normal cash session. This is when all the orders that were set to trigger on market open come flooding in. You can think of this as the moment when ALL of the institutional traders begin to step in and have an opinion about what happened in the overnight session. It is very telling therefore to see how big of a bite this opening range carves out of the orderbook. On a very directional day, this opening range will be left as the high or low of the session. This is even more likely to happen if we are opening with a gap from the previous day's range and value.
When to take an opening range trade:
1. The opening 1 minute range is narrower than 2x your risk tolerance for stop loss placement.
2. The opening range is left at the high or low of the session.
3. The opening range leaves a gap from the previous day's cash session.
Rule 1 and 2 must always be true, while you can think of rule 3 as an additional validator.
How to take an opening range trade:
See the chart above for reference. We are opening within yesterday's range, so no gap. We wait for the 08:30(central) 1 minute candle to paint itself as the market opens. As soon as the candle is complete we mark it's high and low. We have a fairly large range of 20 ticks. The next 1 minute candle dips back into the opening range before extending above it. Because this candle does not reach the center of the opening range, we can go long when it begins to extend above. We set our stop loss at the center of the opening range.
A note about stop placement: For what it's worth, I was taught, (and most traders I know do it this way) to use the ENTIRE opening range for my stop loss. What I've noticed however, is that if price action returns to the center of the range, there is a high probability of it violating the other side. Therefore, you can use half the opening range, thus cutting your risk in half, and the money saved will by far outweigh the handful of trades per year that you miss due to being stopped out.
You could have taken this trade for very little risk and carried it all the way to the close for a 10:1 reward over risk.
The opening range trade is simple to implement, and you won't have to wait very long to find out if you're right or not. Typically, if this trade is wrong then you'll be stopped out in a few minutes and can move on. If the opening range IS left as the high or low of the session, then you can expect a substantial move in your favor.
Now you have one more tool to keep in your toolbox. I hope it helps.
Trade well everyone.
BTC/USD Binance.US - This is why I do not use stop losses.. I must start by saying that I believe Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investing offers the greatest opportunity for the common man to build wealth to have ever existed in the history of the world. Yet, it is still an endeavor that must be entered into cautiously and with research if one is to be successful.
The Daily Chart for BTC/USD on (the pathetic excuse of an exchange) Binance.US, serves as a teachable moment that should not be ignored. This chart demonstrates that if you cannot go to sleep peacefully without having a stop loss in place then you may need to reconsider being in this game.
The traditional methods of trading securities that were used in the regulated stock markets of the world and which subsequently made a lot of the famous traders of old very rich, predated high frequency trading and algorithmic trading bots on these mostly unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges. Yet, these outdated methods are currently being peddled and taught by the get-rich-trading-crypto-gurus today as the "secrets to crypto trading profits", despite this being 20th century methods that will cause you to lose your shirt if adhered to when trading crypto. Any endeavor to read and learn about crypto trading will, almost without fail, lead to a regurgitated list of the same old trading clichés. One such example: the so-called number one rule of trading. Always use a stop loss. The number one rule of successful trading is undoubtedly to limit your losses. This may be true, but if you are doing that with a stop loss on an exchange then you are asking to be robbed. Yes, you have to know when to cut your losses and move on, but unfortunately, because of the nature of swimming these dangerous financial waters, the sharks in the crypto space will eat your lunch, steal your crypto at bargain prices and laugh as you weep over what could've been. The order books are open. Anybody with a desire to do so can launch a trading "bot" using an API on most any crypto exchange. If that person or entity happens to have enough capital to clear the buy or sell side of the order books of an exchange, then they are free to do so. Once this is done, your crypto is gone at a bargain price with the classic stop loss shake out. Which is why if I cannot hold it without a stop loss, then I don't need it. If a drop in price doesn't present an opportunity for me to buy more, then I don't need it. If I'm not confident that it will be around in 2-5 years from now, then I don't need it. To limit losses, set a price alert on Tradingview, CoinGecko, or your exchange watchlist. If you are afraid it will drop too much before you can act on it, or if it suffers from a lack of volume and thus has a lack of liquidity, then perhaps it's best to HODL or leave it be.
If you don't know what any of this means, then that could be a sign that you may need to do a little more due diligence.
Mentality - Identify Right or Wrong DecisionHi Traders. Here's a very impromptu topic regarding how do you know if you're doing the right thing or not. Often, most of us fail to differentiate whether are we making the right decisions or not, because of the outcome - profits. One main thing you must understand is that, trading the financial markets are all about the probable & possible. Short-term outcomes are completely random, what separates you from 90% of losing traders, is your trading edge, consistency and emotional detachment. If you are 'lucky' enough to make money not following your plan, are you able to duplicate this into the long-term projection? Ultimately, markets will reward discipline traders, so stick to your plan and keep grinding!
Comment down below what's the worst trading decision you've ever made.
Do not forget to like if you enjoy the sharing. Trade safe and take care.