The Importance of Understanding the Commodities MarketIn this educational post, I'll be explaining the reason why both investors and traders need to understand the commodities market.
The commodities market is a market in which raw, hard, and soft commodities are traded.
Examples of commodity assets include gold, oil, wheat, grain, copper, and even livestock.
While these aren't commonly traded markets among retail investors, understanding assets within the realm of commodities can provide an edge in trading and investing.
Benefits to Investors
- The primary reason that investors needs to understand the commodity market is because it helps provide an overall picture of the entire financial market.
- For instance, in the case of Nickel, Copper, Zinc, and other industrial metals, the price action differs depending on the market cycle, and certain metals are sensitive to, and heavily affected by specific industries.
- Popular commodities like Gold and Oil’s price action reflects the overall market trend and sentiment.
- As such, a retail investor with a deep understanding in commodities is capable of looking at the stock market from a different angle.
- Secondly, understanding commodities provides a huge advantage in terms of portfolio management.
- How 'well' you have invested, isn't simply determined by your annual return.
- Your sharpe ratio (your return divided by the volatility) tells a more accurate story.
- In order to succeed as a retail investor, you need to focus on increasing your sharpe ratio, or your risk adjusted return.
- And the best way to do so, is to diversify, specifically by looking at the correlation between certain assets.
- There are a plethora of assets in the commodities market that provide a great hedge / means of diversification against the stock market.
- Leveraging this knowledge will help investors design a portfolio that provides them great risk-adjusted-returns.
Benefits to Traders
- The commodities market can be a great opportunity for traders, as long as they spend their time getting used to the market.
- Normally, when the stock market is overbought, or when it demonstrates sideways action, traders often make the mistake of overtrading.
- Traders enter positions at suboptimal levels, because they have no option but to trade at the stock market.
- However, understanding the commodity market gives them an edge. The best analogy to explain this, is like playing online poker.
- When playing poker, the player waits for good hands to appear, so he can make a bet in his favor.
- When he plays online poker, he can have multiple games going on at once, and play the game where he gets the upper hand.
- In the same vein, when a trader knows how to trade commodities, instead of waiting for a good entry in the stock market, he can simply trade assets within the commodities market.
- If you think stocks are overvalued, there’s a chance for you to move onto gold, silver, oil, or even industrial metals.
- You can take a look at multiple assets, and find one that has a good risk/reward ratio right now.
Conclusion
The commodity market is a market that is huge in size, yet often overlooked my many, if not most retail traders and investors. However, understanding which assets are traded, their price action (in relation to other assets), can help both investors and traders acquire an edge.
Community ideas
The 2% Rule? (Never Break It)What Is the 2% Rule?
The 2% rule is an investing strategy where an investor risks no more than 2% of their available capital on any single trade. To implement the 2% rule, the investor first must calculate what 2% of their available trading account is: Example: $5,000.00 account equals $100.00 risk per trade.
Key Takeaways:
The 2% rule is an investing strategy where an investor risks no more than 2% of their available capital on any single trade.
To apply the 2% rule, an investor must first determine their available capital.
Stop-loss orders can be implemented to maintain the 2% rule risk threshold as market conditions change.
How the 2% Rule Works
The 2% rule is a restriction that investors impose on their trading activities in order to stay within specified risk management parameters. For example, an investor who uses the 2% rule and has a $100,000 trading account, risks no more than $2,000–or 2% of the value of the account–on a particular investment.
By knowing what percentage of investment capital may be risked, the investor can work backward to determine the total number of lot size to purchase.
The trader can also use stop-loss orders to limit downside risk.
In the event that market conditions change, an investor may implement a stop order to limit their downside exposure to a loss that only represents 2% of their total trading capital. Even if a trader experiences ten consecutive losses, using this investment strategy, they will only draw their account down by 20%.
The 2% rule can be used in combination with other risk management strategies to help preserve a trader’s capital. For instance, an investor may stop trading for the month if the maximum permissible amount of capital they are willing to risk has been met.
📚EDUCATION: THE BASICS OF TRADING EXPLAINED📚
Hello, Traders!
The basics of what it takes to be a successful trader are simple and obvious
Yet daily, I see traders who fail at one or multiple KEY points that sink their performance and they keep losing accounts even though these people do have the understanding of the market that would have been sufficient enough for them to be profitable if they followed the basic rules. Trading is as much about pattern recognition and capacity for abstract thinking as it is about the personality type, self-discipline, and specific mindset.
The lucky few are born fit for trading, but others might train themselves.
Below, is the breakdown of the basics behind the day trading!
✅ TRADING IS A BUSINESS NOT GAMBLING
99% of the new traders have unrealistic expectations of the kind of returns trading might deliver. To make matters worse, they do not realize that it will take years of trial and error before they can make trading Their only source of income.
These delusions make the newbies treat trading like gambling. To AVOID this, please follow these 4 easy steps:
🔥SET AND KEEP YOUR RISK-REWARD.
I recommend risking no more than 1% of the deposit per each trade, which also implies using a variable lot size for every trade, so that no matter the SL
size in pips, or the pair you are trading, the dollar value of the RIKS remains the same with each trade. That way, you are in full control of the risks you
are taking.
🔥DO NOT GO ALL IN.
Sounds obvious, but I’ve seen it so many times. New traders, who lost 70% of the account, GO ALL IN on one trade that they think might help them
recover the balance. That is NEITHER a way to trade, nor a way to learn. Slowly losing your account while learning how to trade, is simply a fee that you
are paying the market for your education. Accept it or fail.
🔥PROTECT CAPITAL=USE SL
I can’t stress this enough and I BEG YOU to use SL. Do NOT enter the trade thinking that if the SL level that you had in mind is hit you will close
manually. You will NOT close the position, and the longer you hold it the more is the temptation to wait a bit more because it seems that the reversal is
coming soon.
🔥CUT LOSSES
Set a daily loss limit. For example, you can Ban yourself from trading for the rest of the day if you lost more than 3 trades in a row. You will enter what
is called a tilt most likely, and you will NOT be productive that day. The same goes for a week. Lost more than 10% of the account in a week? Next week
NO TRADING for you. Watch the market passively, or trade on the demo! By the way, That can be helpful even for professional traders too!
✅KEEPING A COOL HEAD IS KEY
The ideal trader is the one who can set all emotions aside as a robot would, while simultaneously keeping the versatility of the human mind and the intuition, that the machines lack(yet). It is of utmost importance for the new traders to understand that being right about the direction but entering too early or too late is the same as being WRONG because the result will be a LOSS.
Here is how to keep cool:
🔥CONTROL YOUR EMOTIONS.
Both euphoria and a panic attack are your enemies so the more detached you are, the better. Emotions are for the casino, and we are doing business
here, remember?
🔥AVOID FOMO( FEAR OF MISSING OUT)
That one applies mostly to the trades that you are not so sure about, but still want to take them, in fear of not making money. And the early entries are
determined by FOMO too( what if the price does not reach my limit order, and the trade plays out well, but without ME?)
FOMO is Incredibly counterproductive, don't let it control you!
🔥DON’T FOLLOW OTHERS
Avoid herd mentality! 99% of traders lose money, so doing what everyone does inevitably lands you in the 99% category.
🔥BUILD A WATCH LIST
A LOT of the beginners try to PREDICT behavior of the particular instrument that they decided to trade for some reason, instead of going through the
pairs looking for a ready setup that you KNOW works. The former approach leads to finding patterns, key levels, and setups that just aren’t there.
Naturally, the result of trading these is an inevitable LOSS.You should Build a watchlist big enough for your to have a choice, and go through it at
regular intervals, looking for opportunities but NOT INVENTING them.
✅ CONSISTENCY OVER BOOM-BUST STYLE
Consistent trading is the only way to make trading a reliable source of income. Slow but steady gains always beat leap-like boom-bust performance.
The psychological pressure of the latter will most likely break you sooner or later, and who needs gray hair in their 30es anyway?
That is how you achieve consistency:
🔥FIND A STRATEGY
Do the research on multiple trading strategies and pick those that you understand and that are compatible with your personality.
🔥USE PAPER TRADING AND BACKTESTING
To select which strategy is right for you, use backtesting to see how the strategy performed in the past. And use paper trading to see how the strategy
works in real-time.Once you chose the strategy, go back to paper trading and backtesting to polish it.
🔥TRACK YOUR TRADES
Keeping track of your trading! Working with that data is an invaluable tule for the trader, that helps identify your strengths and weaknesses, while also
helping you notice patterns in your trading that would have been left unrecognized otherwise.
🔥FORMALIZE YOUR RULES
Objectivity is KEY for consistent trading because during the rough patches of the market, being sure of your rules helps you stay in the market, waiting
for the tailwind, instead of questioning your strategy or your implementation of it. Create a strict ALGORITHM and follow it step by step. In order to do
that, you need to define every element of your strategy as precisely as possible. For example, a level for you is a daily horizontal level with at least 3
touchpoints, a breakout is valid only if the 4H candle closed above the level, etc...
The less vague the terms, the fewer emotions will be involved in deciding whether to enter the trade or not.
❗️ IN CONCLUSION: If you want to become a trader, remember:
1- It will take YEARS to learn how to trade.
2- You will lose a TON of money in the process
3- You will FAIL with 95% probability.
4-Realistic returns from trading are WAY lower than you think
5-BUT when you succeed, you will set yourself free!
Please SUPPORT This Idea By A LIKE and COMMENT!
Learning the TradingView Platform: Introduction to the Top PanelIn this video we will be covering what the Top Panel has to offer and some of its functions.
This will be the first part of a video series where we will be providing video walkthroughs of tools and items on the TradingView platform.
We hope that this helps both the brand new TradingView user as well as the seasoned user.
Feel free to let us know what features you want to learn more about below!
Using Volume & Open Interest data as secondary indicatorsIf you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis!
Several chartists use the approach of price-action to predict the market movements. Some include volume too. However, most professional traders prefer using a multidimensional approach to market analysis. Price, Volume and Open Interest are the 3 dimensions which are carefully evaluated by these traders.
Open Interest
The total number of outstanding or unliquidated contracts at the end of the day is referred to as Open Interest. It represents the total number of outstanding longs or shorts in the market. Please note: It is not the summation of both
It is the number of contracts. Every contract needs 2 parties- a buyer and a seller. Hence, two parties agreeing on trade forms 1 contract. The open interest figures change every day. These changes such as increase or decrease in OI give the traders a clue as to how the market might behave next.
Few days back, during the end of the weekend, you might have heard that BTC rallied such violently after a short squeeze, where a lot of the short positions got liquidated. That is nothing but an aspect of the Open Interest.
With every trade that goes through, the OI might:
Increase
Decrease
Stay unchanged
These changes are discussed in Table 1.
If both the buyer and seller are initiating a new position, a new contract gets established.
If buyer is initiating a new long position, while the seller liquidates an old long, the number of contract remains unchanged.
Similarly, if the buyer liquidates an old position, while the seller initiates a new position, OI doesn’t change.
If both traders are liquidating old positions, the OI goes down.
These changes in OI allow traders to predict the market momentum. Most traders use OI in conjunction with ‘Volume’ and ‘Price’. To understand, what these changes in OI, we take a look at table 2.
Presently, we have seen the markets entering a long term consolidation. A build-up in open interest during consolidation periods intensifies the ensuing breakout.
95% of traders follow the same technical indicators. Hence, the bigger players tend to use this fact to their advantage.
I would like to conclude the analysis by stating that: The markets can continue to be irrational as long it deems fit. No analysis is sacrosanct!
"Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy talks about different aspects in detail. The above analysis has been researched and referenced from different parts of the book.
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Keep supporting:)
-Mudrex
History of Forex | From Ancient to the Modern Day
We have come a long way from the previously practiced barter system to the modern-day system of trading currency. Following is a brief summary of the evolution of currency and how it gave rise to Forex Trading.
Here are the main stages that are illustrated on the chart:
1️⃣The Ancient system of Trading - Trading with Gold
As early as 6th century BC, the first gold coins were produced, and they acted as a currency because they had critical characteristics like portability, durability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability.
2️⃣Bank Notes Originated - Deposited Gold in banks in exchange for banknotes
3️⃣Role of Geography - Various banks of different regions printed different currencies
Gold Standard - Currency pegged to gold
In the 1800s countries adopted the gold standard. The gold standard guaranteed that the government would redeem any amount of paper money for its value in gold. This worked fine until World War I where European countries had to suspend the gold standard to print more money to pay for the war.
4️⃣Bretton Woods System - Currency pegged to USD
The first major transformation of the foreign exchange market, the Bretton Woods System, occurred toward the end of World War II.
The Bretton Woods Accord was established to create a stable environment by which global economies could restore themselves. It attempted this by creating an adjustable pegged foreign exchange market. An adjustable pegged exchange rate is an exchange rate policy whereby a currency is fixed to another currency. In this case, foreign countries would 'fix' their exchange rate to the US Dollar.
5️⃣Birth of Floating Currency - Currency that is not pegged to any assets or other currencies is known as a 'floating currency'.
And what will be next?
Very hard to say but blockchain technologies will make the system change again.
❤️Please, support this educational post with a like and lovely comment❤️
How to manage & deal with consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: How to manage & deal with losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Hi everyone:
Today I want to go over a very key trading psychology lesson on how to deal with losses, especially consecutive losses.
This is bound to happen to any traders, whether you are new or experienced. ITs something all professional traders will have to deal with on a regular basis.
Understand that, dealing with losses psychologically is the key factor in the success of a trader.
This is because losses are inevitable, and trading is a probability, which trades that you take will end up both in wins and losses.
However, traders usually can not accept losses, due to their ego, greed and other emotional factors.
Aside from having a good risk management, trading plan, and trading strategies, traders can still experience the psychological emotions of losing.
This is due to the fact that we are humans and we are an “emotional” animal. We don't want to be wrong, at all.
Taking a loss is like getting slapped in the face by the market, which we have egos to fight against.
What ends up after taking losses or consecutive losses, it puts traders at a disadvantage where their emotion is high, and likely to “revenage” trade to chase back losses, which end up in a deeper hole.
To deal with such psychological phenomena, take a step back and observe your situation:
First, did you follow your trading plan/strategy on how to enter, set SL/TP, and management ?
Second, did you take an emotional trade due to greed or fear of missing out ?
Third, have you journal down your losses and review them to make sure they are trades you really want to risk your capitals on ?
By now you will see why we need to review these. Trading is a probability, not right or wrong. It's a random variable that you are putting your $ at risk.
So if you understand the rules and plans that you follow and execute a trade accordingly,
then there should NOT be any negative emotions towards the outcome of the trades, whether they are winners or losers.
When I discuss the trades I entered every week in my trade recaps videos, I am always happy to enter a position, even if it goes to a loss.
This is because I have done enough backtesting, chart work, and plan to enter a position.
I understand strictly from a probability point of view, I could have a higher strike rate, and more often the trades will end up as a winner rather than a loser.
However, I also understand and acknowledge that some trades will end up in a loss, disregard mine technical analysis or other’s fundamental analysis. It is what trading is all about.
When I have consecutive losses, I will always review the 3 points I mentioned above and make sure they are all valid for me.
Then I simply will take 1 day off from the market, chart, phone, and just get your mind clear. Come back strong after 1-2 days of rest, and have a positive mindset.
What traders often do when they have consecutive losses is to right away re-enter back into the market and try to chase back their losses.
This has always been the downfall of losing and it creates anxiety in traders’ minds.
Such a negative experience is going to stay in the traders’ mind longer and deeper, compared to consecutive winners.
So wise we understand that is the case how our brain is "programmed” into thinking, then it's up to us to do the opposite, and fight the urge to “revenge” our losses.
At the end of the day, no one is trading your trading account, except yourself.
Taking ownership of your account, learning to control our emotions, understanding the probability side of trading, and learning to let go, drop our ego will help us in the long run in this industry.
I hope these pointers can help some traders who are still struggling with this concept.
It's impossible not to take losses, but professional traders deal with it on a regular basis and still remain consistent in the long run.
Thank you
I will forward some Trading Psychology educational videos below on some of the topics explained today.
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?
How to create a trading strategy?HOW TO CREATE A TRADING STRATEGY?
WHAT IS A TRADING STRATEGY?
Trading rules that systematize it, bring clarity, orderliness and predictability of the result. You can take a ready-made strategy and adapt it for yourself. And you can create your own
The main idea of the strategy, its rationale
The idea should be rational, based on market patterns that you understand. For example, trading with a trend or pullbacks. On technical or fundamental analysis, with or without indicators
A good trading strategy is not complicated, but simple. A large number of rules makes the strategy inconvenient and understandable for the trader himself.
Timing of trading
What timeframes do you want to trade on?
How much time are you willing to devote to trading?
What time will you trade?
Selection of trading instruments
Pick those tools. which you understand well
The strategy can be both universal (for many tools), and sharpened for specific toolsChoice of tools for analysis
1) When the main idea of the strategy emerged and it became clear how, when and what to trade, you need to decide on the tools of market analysis
2) If the strategy is indicator, then select indicators (from 2 to 5)
3) If the strategy is not indicator, then select patterns, figures of graphical analysis
4) If the strategy is based on fundamental analysis, then it is necessary to decide on which news to trade.
Trade entry rules
Under what conditions will you enter the market based on what signals?
When will you not open a trade?
What orders will you use market or pending?
Exit rules
Stop Loss and Take Profit
Under what conditions do you close a position?
How will you set stop loss and take profit?
Risk Management
Write down the risk per order, risk per day / week / month
(in percent or in currency)
Determine the maximum allowed number of losing trades
per day / week / month
Calculate the volume of a trading position (lot)
When there is a strategy, what's next?
Check the effectiveness of your strategy on the strategy tester or on a demo account
Maintain trade statistics to identify weaknesses of the strategy and remove them
M2 Money Supply in TV!Quick update:
We can now see the M2 Money supply in Trading View. Just type 'FRED:' as the search term as the symbol.
There was a TV notice about this, but I wanted to store it here too, because it's really helpful :)
Here's the notice:
www.tradingview.com
Also see these other instruments that are available now too via FRED:
tvblog-static.tradingview.com
Indicators For A Volume Profile Based Trading StrategyVolume Profile has been popular among futures traders since the beginning of electronic trading and the introduction of TPO charts. I use several scripts from the TradingView Volume Profile Suite for a trading strategy I'll teach in a upcoming video. For now, here are the scripts and indicators applied to the charts I show in this, and past, recordings.
Indicators on the 30m Chart:
Volume Profile > Session Volume HD
PriorDayOHLC (Available in the Public Library)
233 EMA (Built-ins)
Indicators on the 5m Chart
Volume Profile > Visible Range
VWAP Stdev Bands v@ Mod (Available in the Public Library)
The 3 Types of Traders. Who Do You Belong To? 🤔
There are thousands of different ways to trade the market.
During the last 100 years, various trading strategies and techniques were invented.
One of the ways to categorize them is to split them by types of traders.
Such a category type will lean on 2 main elements:
trading frequency and time frame selection.
1️⃣ - Scalper
I guess 99% of newbie traders start from scalping.
Trying to catch quick market moves and become rich quick,
newbies are practicing different scalping strategies.
What is funny about scalping is the fact that such a trading style is considered to be the easiest by the majority while remaining one of the hardest in the view of pros.
The main obstacle with scalping is a constant focus and rapid decision-making.
Scalpers usually open dozens of trading positions during the trading session, most of the time being in front of the screen constantly.
Paying huge commissions to the broker and dealing with complete chaos on lower time frames, the majority simply can't survive the pressure and drop, leaving the pie to true gurus.
2️⃣ - Day Trader
Day trading or intraday trading is the most appealing to me.
Staying relatively active, the market gives some time for the trader for reflection & thinking.
Opening and managing on average 1-2 trades per trading session, the intraday trader is granted a certain degree of freedom.
However, with declining volatility, quite ofter intraday traders get a relatively low risk/reward ratio for their trades,
3️⃣ - Swing Trader
Swing trading is the best choice for traders having a full-time job.
Primarily being focused on daily/weekly time frames, swing trading is not demanding for a daily routine and aims at catching mid-term/long-term market moves.
With an average holding period being around 2 weeks and opening 1-2 trading positions per week, swing trading is considered to be the least emotional and involves low risk.
The main problem with swing trading is patience.
Correctly identifying the market trend and opening a trading position,
the majority tends to close their positions preliminary not being patient enough to let the price reach their target.
Which trading type do you prefer?
What is impulse and how to make money on it?What is momentum and how to make money on it?
Momentum is a sharp paranormal price movement in one direction or another, unusual for average daily fluctuations of an asset
How to build zones from which impulse movement is most likely to occur?
1) The price is pushed back from the previously built level
2) There is an impulse movement in the other direction
3) Correction to the level, from which the price pushed a little
4) consolidation, consolidation below the level, from which there will be an impulse movement
How it works?
1) the level above which the price consolidates and repels
2) Rollback from the price level at the moment
3) Impulse that breaks the level
4) We need to extend the level to understand where the key point will be
5) Fixing the price below the level
6) In anticipation of an impulse movement, at the very beginning of the movement, after fixing, we open an order
*** Works in the same way in long
What do you need to do, what to earn on this?
1) If you use impulses not all in a row, but the very first one after a trend reversal, then we have a chance to pick up all the movements, it all depends on your benchmarks, where you exit the market, according to your strategies.
2) Not every impulse level is the first, we estimate the situation from strong levels, from which the price can reverse
3) We focus on the opening of the session, the chance that the market will reverse at the end of the working day and give you less profit if it is at the beginning.
It is important to understand:
Price moves from level to level
The price does not always fix directly below / above the level
You can work both on the younger (m5, m15, m30, h1, ch4) and on the higher timeframes (d1, b1, m1)
The older the timeframe, the stronger the level from which an impulse can follow
During an impulse, funds are injected, a large player enters the market or a major player exits the market, stops-losses are collected, i.e. removal of market participants.
Our goal is to follow a major player who leads the price and get profit from it
Option Greeks and Implied VolatilityThere are many reasons why an investor or trader trades options. The main reasons, as with other derivatives markets, is to hedge another position or to speculate on the performance of the underlying security.
1) Hedging: A hedge is like an insurance policy in that it can help mitigate risk for a small fee. For example, a portfolio manager buys a large position in Company A stock for its long-term price appreciation potential but is worried that the next earnings report will show short-term issues. He or she can buy put options on that stock that will increase in value if the price of the stock falls on its earnings news.
2) Speculation: Options allow both buyers and sellers to capitalize on their market forecasts, whether they are bullish, bearish, or neutral. However, because options prices depend on many factors, including market volatility, traders can profit from increases or decreases in those factors as well.
While traders can look at individual options data, a very widely used display called an “options chain” lists all options, or a subset, available for a given expiration month. Options traders also look at derivatives of the price that measure how fast their prices decay over time, how fast their prices change with a given change in the price of the underlying, and more. These derivatives are designates with Greek letters such as delta and gamma, so traders call them “the Greeks” .
I. Delta – measures how much an option price changes for a one-point move in the underlying. Its value ranges between 0 and 1 for calls and between -1 and 0 for puts.
II. Gamma – measures the rate of change in delta. It is essentially the second derivative of price.
III. Vega – measures the risk from changes in implied volatility. Higher vol makes options more expensive since there is a greater change than the underlying security price will move above the strike price for a call.
IV. Theta – measures the rate of time-value decay and is always a negative number as time moves in only one direction.
V. Rho – measures the impact of changes in interest rates on an option’s price.
Implied volatility (IV) is the estimated volatility of a security’s price and is critical in the pricing of options. Although not a guarantee, implied volatility tends to increase while the market in the underlying security is bearish. Conversely, when the underlying security is bullish, implied volatility tends to decrease. This is due to the common belief that bear markets are riskier than bull markets.
The most important is that implied volatility is an estimate of the future volatility, or fluctuations, of a security’s price. While levels of implied volatility are associated with bullish and bearish markets in the underlying security, it really does not predict market direction. It only forecasts the sizes of potential price swings. Implied volatility is not the same as historical volatility, also known as realized volatility or actual volatility. Historical volatility measures past market changes in the price of the underlying asset.
Trade with care.
If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
Free climber Alex Honnold talks about riskAs you may have seen, TradingView’s got a new look and feel. As part of this rebrand, we’ve partnered with top athletes in the fields of climbing, skiing and adventuring, including legendary free soloing rock climber Alex Honnold. Alex knows a thing or two about risk – being the first person in the world to have ever free solo-climbed El Capitan in Yosemite Valley – so we thought we’d pick his brains and see if there’s anything we can learn from him about the topic.
Alex, what does the word ‘risk’ mean to you?
To me, risk means uncertainty. An unknown outcome. Or a chance that an unwanted outcome might occur. I guess "risk" feels like rolling the dice and seeing what happens. Which is something I try to avoid as much as possible in climbing.
What was the first ‘big risk’ you remember taking in your climbing career?
I grew up climbing in a climbing gym, so my first real "risks" were probably my first free solos outside, at a place called Lovers Leap. At the time it felt very exciting (scary) just because the whole experience was so new. I hadn't climbed outside much at that point so it felt like a huge adventure.
What do you do to de-risk your climbing?
One way to de-risk my climbing is to practice on similar climbs until I have a high degree of confidence that I can successfully do whatever I've set out for. If I have a proven track record on very similar climbs then I know that the risk can't be too high. I guess the other way to say that is just to practice until a climb feels easy. If it's well within my comfort zone then it's no longer very risky.
How did you formulate what’s a comfortable level of risk for you?
With climbing I normally just have a gut feeling – some things just feel really scary or make me feel uncomfortable. It's pretty unscientific, but it's the simplest way. If something makes me feel sick to think about then it's almost certainly too risky...
How do you push that boundary safely (well, as safely as possible)?
Oftentimes, if something feels too risky it can still get worked on further. I can minimize the risk through preparation or training. So for example, if a specific climb just feels really scary, I can break it down rationally and figure out which specific sections seem the scariest and then work on them specifically. By breaking a big climb down into pieces and working on each section in turn it can eventually start to feel more comfortable.
Thanks Alex
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We have more mini-interviews with Alex and others heading down the pipe soon, so make sure to keep an eye on Editors’ Picks in the coming weeks.
How to Optimize Your Trading.To increase the efficiency of your trades and have better outcomes, you need to monitor the market constantly. But how should you monitor a market with +10K tickers to find the best trade opportunities?
Random Walk Theory and Efficient Market:
Random walk theory suggests that changes in stock prices have the same distribution and are independent of each other.
The efficient market hypothesis states that stock prices fully reflect all available information and expectations, so current prices are the best approximation of a company’s intrinsic value. (Burton Malkiel, 1973)
I believe both of these theories became obsolete in the algorithmic trading era.
Look at the following examples:
Banks:
As you can see all these stocks have a significant positive correlation..!
Oil and Oil Companies:
EV Makers:
Cannabis Stocks:
After all these examples you should accept that stocks move in Clusters, and their prices could be under influence of others! The market is not efficient anymore..!
Having said this, one way to narrow down your watchlist could be clustering and then choosing between clusters by defining your favorable criteria..!
A lesson from Jim Simons:
"We have three criteria: If it's publicly traded, liquid, and amenable to modeling, we trade it."
“We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random.”
"Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies. But we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time. We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we re-evaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money."
I use some statistical modeling and narrow down the 10k to less than 50 to trade options, and I share My options trading watchlist link here:
www.tradingview.com
This list may change accordingly.
Conclusion:
There is no point in having many stocks from the same cluster in your watchlist, try to narrow it down as much as possible to increase your trading efficiency..!
Educational Article:
www.investopedia.com
www.investopedia.com
PSYCHOLOGY OF A TRADER | MASTER EMOTIONS & MASTER THE MARKET
The market is driven by people.
The crowds are always behind strong market rallies.
What the majority fails to recognize is the fact, that being chaotics in its nature, the markets are always trading in predictable patterns.
Believe it or now, but the market participants are driven by the same emotional impulses. It does not really depend on how wealthy is the person.
With the core motive being to make a ton of money with a little risk possible, we can derive a universal archetype.
Every asset, every financial instrument has an element of a "potential value". Being 100% subjective, an attempt to calculate the future value drives the market.
Depending on the current expectation of the crowd and its emotions it is necessary for a professional trader to learn to play with its behavior.
With many years of constant observations, the cyclic psychological curve was derived to explain the relationships between our emotions and market cycles.
On the chart, I have drawn 9 main stages of trader's psychology:
😶INDIFFERENCE - No opportunities are spotted, searching for the right pick.
🙂OPTIMISM – Positive outlook leading us to buy a certain asset
😃EXCITEMENT – Being initially right in our pick, we feel excited as bulls push the market to the new highs
The moment of happiness and feeling of being "a true investor"
🤑GREED – Being thrilled we start to ignore warning signs and add more and more cash to the market believing that the market will never stop.
😕ANXIETY – The market starts taking our gains back. Being biased and nihilistic we keep holding the position, thinking that it is just a pullback.
😩PANIC – Tremor. We are frozen. Emotions are draining our power. We are clueless and helpless. We totally lose the sense of control.
😭DEPRESSION – Position is closed. Money is lost. Considering trading & investment industry to be a scam.
🤔HOPE – The dawn. The market returns back to its normal state. Aspiration & desire to start again.
😆RELIEF – Again we start to believe in our strength. We return and the cycle repeats.
Do you recognize yourself in these stages?
Please, support our work with like and comment. It really helps.
EDUCATION - Candlestick Cheat Sheet ⚡⚡One of the most powerful tools in your trading arsenal should be candlestick patterns. Various candlestick patterns can tell us where the market is heading.
These patterns can be found on all timeframes, however the Daily candlestick patterns appear to be the most reliable.
Once you see these patterns, you can ready yourself for the next move and use other tools to enter the market such as flag patterns, MA strategy - which we've covered before (See linked charts).
Major fundamental news affecting The PriceFundamental news in the forex market provides the greatest energy for price movement. Only often these movements are unpredictable.
I have a news trading strategy in my feed titled "How to trade The News Correctly" ,
I recommend it to study if you have an aggressive trading style and want to earn even more on news
1)
Employment figures
The most important news event that all speculators and investors are guided by
is non-farm pay. This news event increases several times, at the time of the news
release, the volatility of the main instruments on which traders earn. The NFP
usually comes out on the first Friday of every new month.
2)
Balance figures
An indicator characterizing the difference between the value of
exported / imported goods and services
3)
Speeches and minutes
Last mention of key speeches and minutes such as ...
1) DOMC Statements and Press Conferences
2) Voting on MPC ratings and speeches by the Governor of the Bank of England
3) Press conferences of the ECB and speeches by the President of the ECB
4)
Retail Sale figures
the indicator characterizes the strength of consumer demand. Its growth indicates
an increase in the production of goods, a strengthening of the economy and currency.
Included in the calculation of GDP
5)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Reflects the shift in the cost of core consumer goods and services
6)
Expected and Forecasted Figures on the way out news
1) Positively affects the strengthening of the currency when the actual
figures after the release of the news turned out to be better than the predicted ones
2) Badly affect the strengthening of the currency when the actual numbers
are worse than expected
7)
Any kind of news that is spoken during these events has a very strong effect on all
foreign exchange and not only markets. Traders navigate and trade depending on
how they think a certain currency of the respective country can react.
❗ ❗ ❗ Constructiveness in trading: follow the news when trading and try not to open orders for half an hour, at the time of release and after the release of news for half an hour ❗ ❗ ❗
TradingView: Look first / Then leap.Every once in a while you have to commit to something that pushes the boundaries of your comfort zone — that gets your heart beating, the breath shaky and palms sweaty. For us, that’s this moment right now, where we share with you the efforts of a project that’s been a long time in the making. It’s with great pleasure that we present to you the new look and feel for TradingView!
Our mission has forever been: Always an informed decision. That it doesn’t matter who you are, where you’re from or what your risk appetite is, everyone is entitled to the right tools and the right information to make the best trading and investment decisions possible.
Now, to articulate that ambition more evocatively, you’ll see us using the concept Look first / Then leap . We think this sums up what TradingView is all about — there’s no point jumping blindly into trades (that’s why you use charts) but at the same time you don’t just do 100% of your analysis just for fun — there’s got to be some commitment required.
First you prepare, then you go for it: Look first / Then leap.
We will be sharing updates all week about our new look and feel. You'll also have a chance to meet our sponsored sports stars including the legendary free soloist featured in this video Alex Honnold , renowned free-skier Caite Zeliff and adventurer Leo Houlding .
Thank you for being a member, sharing feedback, and working your hardest to become the best trader or investor. This is a monumental day in our history together.
Stop Loss HuntingInstitutional investors have a profound impact on financial instruments prices because of their large volume trading activities. They can greatly impact the price of financial instruments, however making a material impact and hence decreasing liquidity to the point where there may be no one to take the other side of the trade is not something they desire. To fill their large in size orders with better price levels, Institutional investors need liquidity, they cannot just enter a trade at once, but they split trades over time and slowly have to build a position by hunting for liquidity. One of their strategic approach and the best way to get liquidity without making a material impact of the price and get filled in better price levels is Stop Loss Hunting .
A stop-loss order is an order placed to buy or sell a financial instrument when it reaches a certain price with the aim to limit loss on a position or protect profits.
Where do we usually place our stop orders? For a long trade example, usually we set them just below a support level, a trend line, a longer-term moving average, previous day low or a specific ATR percentage etc, which are highly predictable.
Institutional investors simply need to trigger stop loss orders of thousand of traders and since a key level is borken new traders joins by entering positions, making them take trades in the wrong direction, which as a result creates a huge supply with enough liquidity to absorb Institutional investor's demand with better prices
Some examples
Stop Loss houting can be observed frequently
Elliot Waves Complete Guide | Chapter 4.6 - "ABC Fib Lengths"Hello Traders. Welcome to Chapter 4.6! This is FINAL CHAPTER of my Elliott Waves series that took me 6 months to create starting from chapter 1. Here we will finally conclude with learning about the "Fibonacci Ratio Lengths for Corrective Wave Multiples". In the previous sub-chapter, we learned how to apply Fibonacci lengths for waves 1-5, now we will learn how to apply them to A-B-C corrections. This chapter is related to chapter 3.1 (corrective waves), so it would be best to re-visit or master that chapter first.
📚 Chapter 4 Glossary:
4.1 Alternation
4.2 Channeling
4.3 Psychology
4.4 Fib-Ratio
4.5 Motive Wave Multiples
📖 4.6 Corrective Wave Multiples
-----
Corrective Wave Multiples for an A-B-C Correction Overview
"How to Calculate the wave lengths for waves ABC"
1) In a Zig-Zag correction (go back to chapter 3.1 if you don't know what a zig-zag correction is), the length of wave C is usually the same length and equal to that of wave A, as shown in Diagram ①. But other ratios like the 161.8% (again, commonly referred to as the 1.618 fib) or the 61.8% (.618 fib), also happens within its structure for determining the length of wave C.
2) This specific ratio can also be applied to the first and the second zig-zag in a WXY 'double zig-zag correction' that can be seen in Diagram ②.
3) In diagram ③, we have a flat correction that can also be measured via Waves A,B,C - which are quite equal; however, the extended flat correction from the beginning of Wave B to Wave C has different ratios applied. In this case, wave C often represents the 161.8% (1.618 fib) extension of wave A.
NOTE: the concept of measuring the waves should always be the second part when analyzing the markets. Do not expect to correctly measure a target for a wave, if the overall count is not valid and rules were broken. The fibonacci numbers are complementary applied to the Elliott Wave theory.
THANK YOU! Refer to every chapter below, and happy learning. In future posts, we will be learning how to apply them in a PRACTICAL sense to the real markets! But first, we must memorize these chapters by heart as these chapters are the foundation to the whole Elliott Wave Theory.
Trade Safe.
X Force