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TOP 5 CURRENCIESHello! Today we will discuss the five most popular currencies. Currently, there are 180 currencies in active circulation in the world. Most of the transactions made in the foreign exchange market are made using only about half a dozen of these currencies. If you are familiar with the Pareto principle, then it applies very well in the real world. This article will provide you with an overview of the currencies currently dominating the foreign exchange market. The five most traded currencies in Forex are listed below, with reasons for their popularity: * US dollar: The dominance of the US dollar as a currency is undeniable. In truth, this currency has no serious competition. Such popularity is due to the long-term stability of the government and the economic dynamism of the United States. It has a very stable value due to the fact that it is not greatly affected by inflation over a long period of time. Many foreign governments literally hold on to dollars as a reserve currency, mainly because that currency is used for international transactions. Needless to say, the US dollar is on a pedestal and its status as a currency is unparalleled – or rather, not yet. * Euro: The US dollar as the main currency definitely needs a second currency. Surprisingly, this currency is one of the youngest, and it is considered the official currency from Finland to Portugal and from Slovakia to Slovenia. The Euro is the next most traded currency among all currencies in the world. Currently, there are about 500 million people in Africa and Europe who use this currency for trade. The value of the euro is likely to increase over time. *Japanese yen: The Japanese yen has become so important nowadays because its value has tripled. Because of this, Japanese firms have taken advantage to acquire several procurement-related positions from many institutions in the United States. Through these developments, the yen has gradually become one of the most important currencies used in the foreign exchange market. * British pound: The pound sterling has lost some of its glory. Decades ago, it was the second most widely used currency, but with the decline of the British Empire and the rise of the euro, the pound fell by the wayside. Today, the pound is used in only 6% of all foreign exchange transactions. If you're wondering why the pound suddenly dropped to number four, the best answer is that it's in a relative vacuum. The United Kingdom government has fixed its price against the dollar, and this is not good, because it no longer reflects the real value of the currency. * Australian dollar: This currency was created in 1966 as a replacement for the now obsolete Australian pound. Since then, it has become one of the most popular reserve currencies circulating throughout Oceania and the Asia-Pacific region. Gradually, it has become one of the most preferred currencies for trading. conclusions In the 21st century, foreign exchange is moving towards diversity. Investors pay attention to the stability and volatility of the currency. In addition, the reputation of the economy and the security of the state matter in the selection process. Finally, another factor that is taken into account is the extent to which the currency is used. Due to the high volatility, trading these pairs is faster, which can help you quickly win big or lose everything quickly. Good luck! Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Education
by Lingrid
41
The Anatomy of a Bear MarketRecently, a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of a multi-year recession. I don't think that is a clear depiction of the current situation, but I am aware that the idea stems from a lack of understanding of bear market structures, and influence of market sentiment. So in this post, I'll be going over Ken Fishers' rules and conditions that must be met in order for a market to be clarified as a bear market, and how you can best position yourself to minimize downside risk. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. The Four Rules of a Bear Market - The first rule is the two percent rule: a bear market typically declines by about 2% per month. - Sometimes it declines by more than 2%, sometimes it’s less—but overall and on average, bear markets don’t often begin with the sharp, sudden drop some anticipate. - If a bear does drop by more than 2% per month, there’s often a market counter-rally that can provide better opportunities for investors to sell. - The three month rule: This rule advocates waiting three months after you suspect a peak has happened before calling a bear market. - Rather than trying to guess when a market top might come, this rule ensures one has passed before taking defensive investment action. - It provides a window of time to assess fundamental investment data, market action and possible bear market drivers. - I often see lots of people call market tops and bottoms, and time the market perfectly, but it needs to be clearly understood that this isn't the right approach to understanding the market. - Next, we have the the two-thirds / one-third rule. - About one-third of the stock market’s decline occurs in the first two-thirds of a bear’s duration, and about two-thirds of the decline occurs in the final one-third. - This was the case in the bear market caused by the financial crisis, as well as many other bear markets including that of 1973. - Combining this with the three month rule, it also implies that if you have identified that a market has indeed begun its bear run, you might be better off taking profits/losses on your position, managing risk by increasing your cash holdings, and buying back when capitulation has happened. - And finally, we have the 18-month rule. - While bull market durations vary considerably, statistics demonstrate that the average bear market duration, since 1946, has only been 16 months. - Very few in modern history last fully two years or longer. - If you’re engaging a defensive investment strategy, you probably shouldn’t bet on one lasting so long. - The longer a bear market runs, the more likely you’re waiting too long to re-invest. - If you remain bearish for longer than 18 months, you may miss out on the rocket-like market ride that is almost always the beginning of the next bull run. - Missing that can be very costly for investors. So are we currently in a bear market? - Based on the four rules above, there's a high probability that we are not in a bear market. - Since I've uploaded this post, the market has bounced swiftly off the 100 moving average on the weekly. - Just as the covid-induced drop of March 2020 turned out to be a 'buy the dip' opportunity, as opposed to the beginning of a bear market, the sharp correction we have seen since the beginning of this year goes against the first rule of the bear market. - It’s critical not to call a bear market falsely, and this is a huge mistake that a lot of people make. - If the market is just going through a correction (a short, sentiment-driven downturn of -10% to -20%), you’re better off riding through it and maintaining your portfolio. - It is impossible to accurately and consistently time market corrections because of the way they behave. - A correction can start for any reason or no reason. So if you believe that the economy is strong, and the fundamentals of the company you invest in remain solid, there's no need to sell off your holdings, especially when your actions are motivated by fear. Conclusion Bull market corrections are not fun, but it's important as an investor for you to be able to distinguish bear markets/recessions from bull market corrections. Choosing to undertake a bear market investment strategy and go defensive should be rare and shouldn’t be done by gut feel or by your neighbor’s opinion. Exiting the market is among the biggest investment risks you can take—if you’re wrong and you have a need for portfolio growth, missing bull market returns can be extremely costly. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
TVC:SPXEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
53
📌Cryptocurency World , coin &Token Types: The Ultimate Guide❗❗It’s important not to confuse the terms “cryptocurrencies” , "Coins " and “tokens,” Different type of them ,as there are fundamental differences that distinguish them. Summary : To put simply ,The two most common blockchain-based digital assets are cryptocurrencies and tokens. The biggest differentiation between the two is that cryptocurrencies have their own blockchains, whereas crypto tokens are built on an existing blockchain. What Is a Digital Asset? Broadly speaking, a digital asset is a non-tangible asset that is created, traded, and stored in a digital format. In the context of blockchain, digital assets include cryptocurrency and crypto tokens. What is a cryptocurrency coin? Cryptocurrency coin, like Bitcoin, is essentially a digital form of money that is backed up by a native blockchain The functions of a coin are strictly monetary — you can use it as a mean of payment, store of value, or as a speculative asset to trade, and essentially that’s it. The features of a coin are also similar to fiat money — it is fungible, divisible, and the supply is limited. By definition, a cryptocurrency coin serves only as a digital form of money. The most distinctive feature of a coin is that it is native to the blockchain it’s made on and operates independently from any other platform. Okay, then what is “altcoin”? This is essentially any cryptocurrency coin that has its own blockchain but is not Bitcoin. Some altcoins are just forks to Bitcoin, meaning that they base on Bitcoin’s open-source protocol but still have their own blockchains, like Litecoin. Others, like Monero or Ethereum, are completely independent blockchains. What is a token? The token is a non-native blockchain asset and its value goes beyond only monetary functions. Tokens also require another platform to exist and operate. For example, ETH is a cryptocurrency that is native to the Ethereum blockchain, which makes it a coin. However, one of the primary features of the Ethereum network is the ability to create new tokens within the network. The cryptocurrencies that are created on this network will be called tokens. For example, USDT — the most popular stablecoin pegged to the value of $USD is a token, which operates on the Ethereum blockchain. A cryptographic token is a digital unit of value that lives on the blockchain. There are four main types: 1-Payment tokens 2-Utility tokens 3-Security tokens 4-Non-fungible tokens Fungibility : All crypto tokens break down into two broad categories — non-fungible and fungible, with the latter being the most common type. Fungibility is a feature of a token which essentially means that one token is indistinguishable from another. In simple words, a dollar is always a dollar, and Bitcoin is always Bitcoin. You can exchange the $10 bills with your friend and each of you will still have the same value in the wallet. but Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, are a type of cryptographic token — a digital representation of value that lives on the blockchain. NFTs can represent the value of physical assets. A painting, for instance. But they can also represent the value of digital assets, such as a short story that is only available online. NFTs have three characteristics that set them apart from other types of token: 1. THEY’RE UNIQUE -2. THEY’RE VERIFIABLE- 3. THEY’RE TRADEABLE -Utility Tokens: Utility tokens are a popular type of fungible tokens that you can think of as the chips at the casino. In the same way that you need to buy chips to play blackjack or poker, you need utility tokens to power the operations on the protocol. The most famous utility token example is Ether which powers all the transactions and smart contracts on the Ethereum network. As we just said before, ETH can be used as a means of payment, however, its primary purpose is to be utilized in the blockchain. Social Tokens (fan tokens):Social tokens can be a very interesting type of crypto utility asset that recently gained a lot of popularity among the crypto space and also presented the concept of tokenization to the broader public. In simple words, social tokens are backed by the reputation of an individual, brand, sports club, or just any community -Security Tokens vs Equity Tokens In simple, security tokens are common stock on the blockchain. These tokens are similar to the company shares held by the investors and companies usually issue voting rights through a blockchain platform. The tokens are liquidated to create an Equity Tokens. In other words, these tokens contribute an investment contract, where the Investors typically purchase in anticipation of future profits in the form of dividends, equal sharing of revenue generated and the normal appreciation process. Security tokens bridge the gap between the traditional financial sector and the blockchain framework; it’s one of the reasons banks have initiated the integrated Blockchain frameworks in their system. Issuing security tokens allows investors to raise funds through a thoroughly regulated digital share of its equity, asset or part of the revenue. The key difference between Security Token and Equity Token is that in the security token, an asset like real estate, gold etc. are used as collateral. However, in the case of Equity tokens, the shares of the company are diluted into tokens. We can place coins and tokens in different categories as you can see in the chart above, and some of them are common to other categories. As digital currencies are emerging, various other categories may be added in the future. -Governance token Governance token is the type of crypto asset that grants its holders decision-making rights over the project’s protocol, its product, and its features .it represent voting power on a blockchain project. They represent the main utility token of DeFi protocols since they distribute powers and rights to users via tokens. Governance discussions on Yearn Finance. With these tokens, one can create and vote on governance proposals. - Also Metaverse tokens are a unit of virtual currency used to make digital transactions within the metaverse. Since metaverses are built on the blockchain, transactions on underlying networks are near-instant. Blockchains are designed to ensure trust and security, making the metaverse the perfect environment for an economy free of corruption and financial fraud. -DeFi tokens represent a diverse set of cryptocurrencies native to automated, decentralized platforms that operate using smart contracts. These provide users' access to a suite of financial applications and services built on the different blockchains.
Education
by PRO_SMART_Trader
82
Traders gaining momentum: March Edition!Hey everyone! 👋 This week, we thought it would be fun to highlight some of the best up-and-coming accounts on TradingView. All of these folks deserve a follow, so be sure to show them some love! ❤️❤️ If you think we’re missing someone, be sure to make it known below in the comments. Also, we’ll be doing these roundups from time to time so be sure to follow us so you don’t miss any of them! Let’s jump in. We’ve sorted each Author by the asset class they focus on. Click on their profile, and see if you like what they're putting out! Multi-Asset: WhenToTrade reiiss7 EvanMedeiros goledger SPYvsGME DefyingFinance Stocks & Indices: OccamsPhazer Steversteves luketroutner kartk7 Crypto: mohsenaminii TheUnbounded DeFeye BGMind_Control RyanTanaka mogues WolvesOkami GunMoney luizhcruz Currencies: ironcladammar And there you have it! Our roundup. Don’t forget to follow TradingView for regular educational content. Think we missed any up-and-coming accounts? Point them out in the comments! Obviously, don’t shill yourself. 😉 Cheers! -Team TradingView
AMEX:SPYEducation
by TradingView
62
The Oil Price War Here Are 3 Things You Need To Know “Technically” about the High and Low Oil Price Brent crude oil prices rose steadily for months and surged more than 72% over the last one year-climbed to 14- years high of $139 per barrel. After fluctuating wildly the price per barrel of Brent oil appreciated more than 33% since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 and eventually fell dramatically to about 30% from the peaks to give up all the gains and touched the lows of $96.90 per barrel. Later on, prices retreated up again to $107.80 per barrel levels. Traders fretted over the fragile moves and markets are thrown completely out of whack. In the midst of geopolitical drama and fears of supply disruptions, there's just no certainty about where oil prices are heading. In order to correctly understand the ongoing price tussles and manage your risk timely, Here are 3 important things you need to know technically about the fragile oil price moves: 1-Trend channel Long term trend channel clearly depicts the prices moving within the ascending trend channel and touches the peaks and bottoms of the channel in the last several times, except on a few occasions where prices overshoot the supply area. The current channel displays prospective supply and demand areas. A simple approach can be to sell longs when prices hits the upper boundary of the channel and buy when they touch back to the downward range. Currently, prices are moving in the middle of the trend channel, and suggest to stay cautious and do nothing. 2-Moving Average Crossovers A moving averages crossovers (dead or golden) provides signals when a trend is about to reverse (bearish or bullish) and it happens when two or more moving averages cross each other. Despite the fact that this approach doesn’t predict future direction, is laggard and slightly delayed depending upon the time frame we’re analyzing, but still it can be a very effective tool to use as a price confirmation signal for smoothing prices and understanding the ongoing trend reversals. It can be used to determine stop-loss levels. At present, we’ve got dead-cross signals after the sharp decline from the peaks. 3- Patterns/Polarity One of the most authentic price patterns to determine bullish reversal is the Head & Shoulder Pattern. It comprises the Left Shoulder, Head, Right Shoulder & Neckline, where the neckline can be upward, downward, and horizontal. This pattern generates breakout signals when prices break the neckline, and one notable point is that, this neckline can act as a key actionable point in making money. The neckline can display as a polarity level-support becomes resistance & resistance becomes support. Moreover, this neckline can act as stop-loss or stop-buy point. You can gauge where prices are heading by calculating the height of the head. Calculate the difference between head peak and neckline and subtract this from the neckline level, you’ll get your target price. Currently, the pattern has broken the neckline and confirms a bearish trend and prices reacted to this signal and dropped down to the low of $96.90.Recent pullback from the lows may take it back to the level of the neckline. Currently, we assume the pullback from the lows may stretch the current moves up to the neckline level, which may act as resistance (polarity). If prices surpass neckline levels then we need to work alternatively. It is important to practice these techniques regularly and apply them on different time frames to exactly pinpoint your entry and exit points. Remember, risk management is the key and you need to rightly place your stop loss or stop buy orders. In future posts I will further explain when and how to apply stop loss and stop buy orders using trend channel, moving averages crossovers, and Head & Shoulder techniques. Happy Trading :) Ehtesham Khan, CMT, CFTe Chartered Market Technician CEO | EK Global Capital
TVC:UKOILEducation
by CMT_Association
21
Chart Analysis is not a gambling! Reason why TA is greatHello traders. This is Tommy. Today, I prepared the most basic and at the same time essential materials that every trader should know. Trading is literally the act of exchanging or trading something with a certain value. If we look at the history, we humans have always traded something within the social community from the Neolithic Age to develop into a better civilization or for individual survival when we have enough food or assets. When the surplus accumulation and self-sufficiency economy due to food production was formed, even before the concept of currency or money, buying and selling (trading) was always with us. But when we trade, it is not a reasonable thing to do if we lose money when you buy or sell something, right? We humans have always traded at a value or price that is commensurate with supply and demand, within this immutable fence. And we, who are full of greed, have been trading in such a way as to somehow benefit ourselves a little bit more. In a way, I think this is the basic idea of capitalism. Anyway, our ancestors naturally oriented trades for profit, sometimes seeing losses and sometimes profits through these transactions. And suddenly realized. “Ah, the quantity demanded, and the quantity supplied change over time. Because of this, all objects in this world, even abstract ones, change in value over time. Oh, I can make money if I use this well?” A culture of profit taking has naturally been formed thanks to those who possess the temperament of smart entrepreneurs. In this way, the economy and financial markets were eventually born, and several market participants came in for the sole purpose of generating profits, that is, for investment purposes. People who have properly understood the market principle of supply and demand have been trading with certain standards to make money with it. Some people can trade by the weather (buy when it's sunny, sell when it's raining), some by rolling the dice (buy when it's high, sell when it's low), and someone just by feeling. Of course, economists studied after realizing that trading on unreliable and absurd standards would eventually destroy them. And realized it. “Ah, let’s find the right standard to set the standard. From what I've seen so far, does it make money by trading based on the information about the product and the value of the product that changes every moment? Let’s dig into it properly!” And they created a great science. Analysis through information, Fundamental Analysis (FA), analysis through charts, that is, past transaction data, and Technical Analysis (TA: Technical Analysis). FA is an analysis method that determines whether a product's current intrinsic value is overvalued or undervalued. For example, when we want to invest in a company, that is, if we want to buy shares or stocks in that company, we must first estimate the company's growth potential and potential, right? To do this, you must make a final investment decision by referring to the company's financial indicators, good news/bad news, past asset/revenue growth rates, etc. On the other hand, TA is a method of making investment decisions by referring to various theories and indicators with meaning in charts that intuitively show past price movements and momentum. Of course, it would be the best to do both FA and TA, but in these days, retail traders and individual investors, like us, have time/technical limitations to receive information, analyze it, and immediately reflect it in investment. It is not enough that there are various kinds of false information to deceive the traders, and even if it is reliable information, it is highly likely to start at a loss even if it is received a little later than others. It is useful to spot large market trends in the long run, but when this information reaches the public, it is likely that it has already been priced in by institutions (Big Parties). Without huge information power or a computer that can perform FA quickly and accurately, it is difficult to survive in this market with only FA. There is a risk that is too great to carry out an investment with only one FA standard. Therefore, to make a successful investment decision, you need to find a more precise trading position through TA, and in the end, if you are a skilled investor, you must learn TA. The dictionary meaning of TA is known as a technique for predicting future market trends by examining a tool called a chart that digitizes the overall price volatility and momentum of a product. I'm someone who doesn't fully agree with this meaning. The term “prediction” itself is a very dangerous word. Even the most talented investors in the world cannot predict future prices unless they are gods. Technical analysis is closer to the realm of response than prediction. For this reason, our traders look at the charts and always have various possible scenarios in mind and come up with appropriate countermeasures accordingly. With less than 10 years of trading experience, if I dared to define the meaning of the term technical analysis, I would like to say: Personally, all TAs are based on historical data, and through various theories (or methodologies) and technical indicators, first, probabilistically identify the market trend, that is, whether the price is an upward trend or a downward trend, and then determine the price action, that is, support resistance. I think it is an analysis technique that derives the sections with high probability. Some of you may have questions like this. “No, how do you find a trend and price action interval by looking at only historical data?” This is the reason I fell in love with market analysis. This study called technical analysis is a technique that statistically patterned and quantified the psychology of investors (greed, doubt, fear, etc.) with a lot of data from the past. Surprisingly, external variables that can affect the market, such as good news/bad news, are also reflected in this probabilistically. There have been many times when I have felt the greatness of technical analysis, and there were many times when good news/bad news came out amazingly at just the right timing in situations where there was no choice but to rise or fall referring to the chart. Of course, there are situations where Big Parties leak news to the media to take advantage of popular psychology, but even the pattern, timing, or frequency of such good news and bad news is reflected in the study of technical analysis. Anyway, once you have probabilistically derived the market trend and price action section through TA, you need to design a trading strategy according to the situation. There are words that I keep emphasizing like nagging. Just looking at the charts doesn't mean you're good at trading. This trading strategy includes how to structure the portfolio, how to design the profit/loss ratio/range, how much seed to enter, high/low multiplier, and how to set up profit/loss response strategies. In addition, a well-designed principled strategy is essential to prevent non-thinking trading. This principled strategy is easy to design, but incredibly difficult to follow and implement. No matter how well technical analysis and trading strategies are formulated, these principles are of no use if they are not well designed or adhered to. There are individual differences, but honestly, I don't think there is an answer to the principle strategy other than learning or mastering it through long-term practice or entrusting your own technical analysis/trading strategy to a machine/computer/algorithm. The fewer human emotions are involved, the higher the success rate, but how can you trade without emotions when your money is at stake? It's hard. One tip is to start trading with a small amount that you don't mind losing if you want to learn principle trading well. It doesn't matter if you lose it, so you'll be less empathetic that much, and you'll be able to increase a seed little by little. We must become traders who always think of risks (losses) before rewards (returns). Please keep this word in mind. For example, in a trading setup that costs 10 million dollars if you make a profit and 10 million dollars if you lose, rather than a mindset like “Oh, I want to win 10 million dollars quickly~”, “I may lose 10 million dollars. You must trade with the mindset of “Let’s be prepared.” This will naturally match the seed to your bowl. Then I'll wrap up for today. Until now, this was Tommy of the Tommy Trading Team. Your subscriptions, likes, and comments are a big help to me. Thank you.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Tommy_Trader
75
The Journey of a Trader 🛣🚶 Hey traders, Why 95% of traders fail? In this post, we will discuss the trader's road to success and why most of the traders give up at the halfway point. On the chart, I was trying to portray the journey of a trader: most of the traders start this game with gambling. They randomly buy and sell the market relying on their intuition and with a high degree of probability end up with nice cush.💰 However, as they proceed they realize that the profits that they made were the product of luck, not skill. 🍀 The more they trade, the less they win. At some moment losing trades start to outperform winners. Trying different things, jumping from one strategy to another, one comes to the conclusion that nothing seems to work.🙅‍♂️ He goes broke, he is panicking. At that stage, the majority blame the market for their failure. Forex, stocks, gold trading is complete scam. Making profits on the market is not possible. They give up and leave.👣 Only 5% are persistent. Only 5% are blaming themselves not the market for their failure. They start following a strict trading plan, they follow risk management recommendations of pro traders and at some moment they start making 0.📝 Buying and selling the market, at the end of the day, they don't lose anymore. That is the most important milestone in a trader's journey. Realizing that the one stopped losing, a trader starts polishing and improving his rules in order to achieve better results. He trains and works with his psyche.💪 After years of struggling, one finally contemplates a consistent account growth. He became a pro trader.🏆 I wish you to be persistent, traders and don't give up. Patience pay and at the end of the day winners win. ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
252
How the Fed's Rate Hikes Affect the Market (or Not)In this post, I'll be demonstrating how the Fed's rate hikes affect the equity market (or how they don't), through historical examples and analyses of market psychology. This is an issue that has been going on for a while, and one that has caught the attention of all market participants. Yes, tapering and rate hikes aren’t necessarily good news, but I don’t think that 1) they necessarily indicate the beginning of a bear market/recession, and 2) the Fed is as powerful and influential as we think they are. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. Introduction - There’s a myth, a misconception in the market that the Fed allegedly rescues falling markets with rate cuts and easing measures, and vice versa for when the market is overheated. - This myth began in 1987 during Black Monday, when Alan Greenspan’s Fed cut rates after the crash, creating an impression that the Fed was directly responding to the stock market. - This is when the (mis)belief that the Fed would put a floor under a a falling market stuck. - Nevertheless, if we analyze the data, it actually demonstrates that the Fed stood pat for most corrections, and cutting cycles typically arrive during bear markets, just as coincidence. Historical Cases - There are only two occasions in history where the Fed’s cutting cycles corresponded with market lowpoints. - The first is the aforementioned Black Monday of 1987, and even for this case. - If we take a look at the situation back then, it’s not so much that the Fed made international moves that contributed to history, but rather that the bear market started amid a global liquidity crisis. - With excess liquidity, the rates should have been flat, or down, but that wasn’t the case. - Thus, the Fed’s rate cuts were vital to unfreezing credit and ensuring banks and clearing houses would have access to liquidity they needed, while the market was under severe stress. - The second occasion was the rate cut in 1998, when stocks were reacting to the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). - There was fear in the market that this collapse would lead to a domino effect, ending in a banking meltdown. - Generally, when people fear a banking contagion, liquidity in interbank funding markets dry up. - The Fed’s action to cut rates during this time helped keep money moving, and ensured that banks met their regulatory obligations. Market Psychology - In order to understand the recent discussion revolving around the importance of the Fed’s actions, we need to understand human nature. - People love finding narrative threads and grand explanations because we’re biologically wired to make sense of the world that way. - They confuse correlation and causation, and zero in on evidence that supports their view and shuns whatever suggests otherwise. - But it’s important to remember that in most cases, a fact that everyone knows, tends to be closer to myth than reality, and even if it weren’t a myth, the fact that everyone knows it does not give us an edge in the market. Summary Market shocks are caused by surprises. News about a pandemic or cyber attack that catches investors off guard is much riskier than macro events that are predictable and can be anticipated. Given that the markets are efficient (which I believe they are), it's rational to assume that news about the Fed's rate hikes, and people reaction to it are already priced in. While short term volatility is definitely expected, I believe that the likelihood of this event becoming a trigger for a multi-year recession is extremely unlikely. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
TVC:IXICEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
61
HOW-TO: Cycle analysis helps to detect important turning pointsThe concept of cycle analysis has enourmous power to detect and project important points in time when markets might turn. Cycles work in the time domain and therefore offer additional value to technical analysis. As technical analysis is mainly driven by price, cycle analysis offers a view on another parameter: Time. The most important situations occur when time-based cycle projects come into alignment with price-based technical analysis. Therefore, every trader and analyst should also pay attention to time-based cycle analysis. My objective is to offer tools and improved technical indicators on this platform to combine cycle analysis with technical analysis to help in detecting important turning point. This idea is a summary and real-case example on how time-based cycles gave us the exact pre-information on the expected market top during the period October 2021 to 2022. All has been freely avaiable to the public without any need for subscribtion. Check the signature link. Time-based analysis requires additional tools which are not available directly on TradingView yet. Therefore we must reference additional tools to detect relevant cycles. The public announcements based on time-based cycle analysis on the global markets are labled on the chart "Weekly Cycles Rolling Over" (Oct.2021) and "The Calm before the next Wave" (Jan.2022). Look for "The clam before the next wave" via the signature link. They are freely available for your review and have been posted in advance. We will continue to bring more and more of our cycle tools directly to the TV platform, as Pine will allow us to do so. Once you know the dominant cycle (length), you can use this information to improve your technical analysis on the price chart. I do provide different free indicators here on the TradingView platform which are free to use in your own analysis. Please see the linked related ideas which provide access to these indicators for your own free usage. The key is do use the known dominant cycle as input for these indicators. Once the "correct" input is given - these indicators will reduce noise and will make the turns visible on the price chart. The following example is using one of the indicators available here on the TradingView platform. The cyclic tuned RSI indicator: 1) The first indicator signal occured already in May 2021 when to signal line crossed below the dynamic upper band of the cyclic smoothed RSI indicator. While the weekly cRSI is also overbought, indicated by the red background. However, this technical signal occured not in the projected timing window which was given by the dominant cycles. The cycles still have been in their upswing phase on the weekly and daily cycles. So at point (1) we had a technical sell signal. Which was not confirmed by time-based cycles. Time and price have not come into alignment. 2) The second indicator signal (sell) occured in November 2021. When the signal line touched the upper band and reversed, while the weekly cycles have been in overbought situation (red background). This time now is different because the time-based cycles have rolled over! The upswing cycle phase has ended. This was published based on the the time-based cycle analysis "Weekly S&P500 cycles rolling over" on October 2021. So now we have an alignment of the technical cyclic tuned indicator and confirmed by the weekly cycles which have rolled over now indicating a time-based top. Price and time based cycles have come into alignment. There is no misinterpretation possible. There are no other sell signals or buy signals following this method. A clear top/sell signal in November 2021, after the time-based cycle analysis was published in October 2021. 3) The third indicator signals (sell) occured around 12. Jan. 2022, once the divergence between price and the indicator top has become visible. This price cycle signal (divergence) was supported by the time-based cycle analysis published on 18th January, labled "the calm before the next wave". This time, again daily time-based cycles and price cycles from the shown indicator have come into alignment. Again a clear signal that after the weekly cycles (see #2) now the daily cycles have joined the bearish camp confirmed by the divergence signal at the same time on the price chart. Thats how you can use cycles to improve your trading skills. Join the livestream to discuss the analysis and how it can be used on the TradingView chart: www.tradingview.com
XETR:DAXEducation
by StockMarketCycles
24
Make Your Pine Libraries More Useful█  OVERVIEW Follow these tips to help other Pine coders make the most out of your libraries. Pine Libraries are open-source script publications containing functions intended for reuse by other Pine programmers. Introduced with Pine v5, they are transforming the landscape of the Pine community by making it easier for authors to share their most useful functions, and for other coders to reuse them. You will find more information on how to write and use a library in the Pine User Manual's page on libraries . The whole point of libraries being that our community of Pine coders can use them, it follows that efforts to help others understand and use our libraries will be well spent. The following tips are good practices that will hopefully help you achieve this. █  WRITING LIBRARIES Scope Clearly define your library's ​scope so users can quickly grasp what it's about. A library's ​scope may be ​technical analysis, array-handling, math calculations, etc. Avoid libraries containing a large number of functions, unless they cannot be divided into meaningful scopes. Single-function libraries are fine, as are ones containing only a main function and a few helper functions. You can always add functions to an existing library by updating it. Naming Carefully choose your library's name. It cannot contain spaces, so camelCase should be preferred. First and foremost, your library's name should reflect its ​scope. A long, descriptive name is preferable to a short one that is too generic. Some authors like to prefix their library names with "Library" to make it clearer to non-programmers that the publication is not an indicator or a strategy. Function documentation Programmers who cannot understand your library's functions will not use them. Your code's documentation is thus critical. Your audience will need to understand what your functions do and how to use them. Compiler directives help you structure the most important information about your library, its functions' signatures and results. Additional comments in the code of longer functions will also help other programmers understand what's going on in there. Sometimes just a few well-chosen words will help others tremendously. The library-specific compiler directives for documentation are: // @ description For each function, the following should be used: // @ function // @ param // @ returns These compiler directives are optional, but you should use them for every library function. When you publish your library, the text following the compiler directives will be extracted to build formatted documentation of each function, for inclusion in your publication's description. Note that you can add additional comment lines after the `// @ returns ` directive. Those extra lines will also be extracted in your function's documentation for its publication's description. Usage Examples It is essential to end your library's code with well-designed usage examples. Try to maximize the quantity of functions you use in your demonstration code. If needed, show the different ways your library's key functions can be used. Comment liberally. Note that your demonstration code can contain functions calls you would use in strategies. The broker emulator will execute orders when the library is loaded on a chart, but the chart will not display the usual markers indicating trade entries and exits. █  PUBLISHING LIBRARIES Private vs Public Libraries can be published privately of publicly. Private libraries can only be used in private scripts. Public scripts must use public libraries. It is not possible to publish closed-source libraries. Descriptions The default function documentation text generated when you publish your library is very useful, but it is only one part of a good library publication. Your description should include more content than just the function descriptions. After validating your function documentation, write a brief explanation of your library's purpose and a general description of the type of functions it contains. Explain how your functions can be used in other Pine scripts and mention typical use cases. Include links to any useful reference material. While links are officially not allowed in descriptions, script moderators will tolerate them when their purpose is strictly educational—not to generate traffic. The way we structure most of our library descriptions is to include the following sections:  • Overview  • Concepts  • Notes  • Functions Note that you can include Pine code in your description by wrapping it in these tags: Categories As when publishing other scripts, you will also need to select the best categories to tag your publication. By choosing them wisely you make it easier for others to find your library in searches. Library categories are different from the ones displayed when publishing indicators or strategies. █  UPDATING LIBRARIES Like indicator and strategy publications, libraries can be updated. When you update a library, its new version number will be inserted in the update's release notes. It is important because that version number must be mentioned in the `import` statement used in scripts that use your library. Your release notes will allow users of your library to understand how each of its versions is different. Note that library users will need to update their script's `import` statement for it to use a new version of your library. There is currently no way to make this process automatic. █  NOTES In order to help other programmers use their libraries, authors should be helpful and responsive to questions and requests in their publication's Comments. While most Pine programmers will understand what your Pine library is, keep in mind that many TradingViewers do not know Pine and will not know what a library is. Please be patient when explaining to them that libraries are intended for the Pine coder community, and that they will not be useful to non-programmers. We use the typographic guidelines and techniques documented in our How We Write and Format Script Descriptions publication to write our publication descriptions.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by PineCoders
20
Forex Fundamental AnalysisHello! Today I want to talk about a topic that is rarely discussed, but important at the same time - fundamental analysis of the forex market. News, GDP, interest rates - all this affects the market and everyone needs to be able to understand this. What is fundamental analysis Forex fundamental analysis is a way of analyzing a currency, making predictions based on data that is not directly related to price charts. There are two types of influence of fundamental indicators on the price : Short term. Fundamental information has an impact on the market within minutes or hours. Long term. Fundamental factors, the impact of which on currencies lasts from 3-6 months. Used for strategic positions. Several basic levels are used for conducting FA. The level of the national economy. Comprehensive analytics of economic and political indicators of the country. Industry. The volumes of supply and demand, prices, technologies, as well as production parameters are studied. Individual currency level. Financial statements, management technologies, business strategies, competitive environment are assessed. The classical scheme of fundamental analysis looks like this : An analysis of global financial markets, the presence of signs of a crisis and force majeure events, an examination of the situation in the economy and politics of the leading world powers is carried out. Economic indicators and the general level of stability of the region (industry), the analyzed currency or other instrument are assessed. The degree of influence of regional and world economic indicators on the dynamics of the selected financial instrument in the short and medium term is determined. Main fundamental factors When using FA directly to open trading positions, the following points will be decisive (in descending order of importance) : Interest rates of central banks (CB). Macroeconomic indicators. Force majeure situations, market rumors, news. Central bank rates According to the theory of macroeconomics, increasing interest rates cause currencies to rise in price, while falling interest rates make them cheaper. However, there are situations in the Forex market in which a decrease in the rate becomes the reason for the strengthening of the currency. Foreign exchange market interventions Currency interventions are an important tool in the analysis. Central Banks resort to such a measure very rarely, but you should not ignore this phenomenon. Macroeconomic indicators For any country without exception, there are data of constant importance: the level of GDP; inflation rate; trade balance. These reports are expected by the market. The approach of their publication dates gives rise to a lot of rumors that fuel the trading frenzy. Such an environment often creates situations in which the release of specific numbers does not cause almost any reaction, since the market has already beaten them in advance. However, as FA practice shows, this happens only when the existing trend is not subject to change. In the case when the published data differ significantly from the forecast, the market response can be very violent. This is especially true of the moment of the general reversal of the current trend. Important macroeconomic indicators In simple words, a macroeconomic indicator is expected news, showing up-to-date data on the main indices of the financial and economic state of the state. The advantage is that each trader can know in advance the moment of release of any data from the economic calendar. These indicators affect the rate in the short term and are suitable for trading on medium and short term timeframes. Types of macroeconomic indicators Trade balance. This indicator reflects the volume of exported goods to imported ones. A positive balance is called when exports are higher than imports. Assumes a strengthening of the exchange rate, due to the fact that rising exports increase the demand for the national currency of the exporting region. Discount rate of the National Bank. On its basis, interest rates on deposits and loans are formed. When the national bank rate rises, the currency strengthens; when it falls, it weakens. Gross domestic product. The volume of GDP is obtained by summing up the entire range of services and goods that were produced in the country per capita. However, an increase in GDP always leads to the strengthening of the national currency against other currencies. Inflation. The growth of this indicator leads to the depreciation of the national currency. Unemployment Rate. As a rule, an increase in the indicator is followed by a decrease in output, an increase in inflation and a negative change in the trade balance. For this reason, the data on unemployment has a strong pressure on currencies, and an increase in the figure causes a depreciation. Macroeconomic indicators One of the most common mistakes in trading is trying to trade on weak news. Therefore, you need to understand which data pertains to you. Macroeconomic indicators One of the most common mistakes in trading is trying to trade on weak news. Therefore, you need to understand which of the data are important. Important market data includes : money supply; balance of payments deficit (Balance of Payment Deficit); trade balance deficit (Balance of Trade Deficit); unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate); a significant fall or rise in the rate of inflation (Rate of Inflation); fluctuations in the volume of GDP; change in key rates; emergencies (natural disasters, unexpected events in politics or Second stage of analysis An assessment of the numbers predicted in the calendar for future data. Analysis of the market reaction to this event. This is done in order to understand the price behavior at the news release. For example, when the exchange rate of a currency dependent on news is growing steadily even before the release of figures and at the same time positive data is predicted, one should not expect sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate at the time of the release of the information. And if the forecast turns out to be wrong, then the market can react with a powerful reversal of the current trend. Decision-making. There are two options for entering a trade. The first is to use the situation to open an order on the current trend before the release of the news with constant trailing stops to protect the position. The second is to wait for the release of the data and make trading decisions according to the situation. Results Fundamental indicators certainly affect the price, but each in its own way. It is worth remembering this and not running to open a position just by seeing some news. Analyze, try to understand the possible reaction of the market to the news. Use all the information, be objective and then you will be better than most. Good luck! Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
Education
by Lingrid
45
How to find accurate analysts on TradingViewHey everyone! 👋 Last week, we put out a post about some of the authors that are gaining momentum on our platform, which led to lots of great feedback from the community. And, while we plan on releasing those “compilation” lists on a monthly basis going forward, we thought it would be nice to highlight other ways you can find insightful / skilled authors who are trading the same things you’re trading. Let’s jump in. Step 1 : Open a chart of whatever you like to trade. This can be any asset, on any timeframe higher than 15 minutes - we don’t allow people to post on timeframes lower than 15 minutes. Step 2 : Enable Visible Community Ideas Head to the right rail, and make sure you’ve selected the idea stream tab. This is the shaking lightbulb icon. From this menu, select the lightbulb at the top. This will make all of the ideas published for your symbol and timeframe appear on your chart! If you don’t see anything, try going to a more ‘common’ symbol or timeframe. Check out the daily chart for AAPL or BTCUSD. Step 3 : Who nailed the tops and bottoms? With the visual interpretation of the long and short idea callouts, it should be easy to spot who’s been doing a good job of figuring out what's going to happen next. Who was first to the big run? Who was right to take some profits? Once you’ve found someone who seems to do a good job at this, it's absolutely crucual to see how their other ideas have done! Be sure to go to their profile and check to see if most of their ideas have been accurate, or if they got lucky with one real winner. Step 4 : Follow them! This is a really easy way to build up high quality information flow, and buttress your process of idea generation. Even if the poster doesn't do a good job of trading their own ideas, there could still be an advantage in it for someone with good trading practices. A highly curated stream of follows can actually be a source of significant alpha! Bonus Step 5 : Clean up your idea stream. One thing you can also do is limit the visible ideas on your chart to people you follow. This should make it entirely obvious if someone you’re following is constantly wrong. If so, you can remove them easily from your idea generation feed by unfollowing them. Make the idea feed work for you, not overwhelm you! See you all next week :) -Team TradingView
LEducation
by TradingView
66
Charts can really help during periods of uncertaintyRussia invades Ukraine is the headline and every market in the world it feels like is moving and it is very easy to feel overwhelmed almost to the point of panic, a very quick glance around the markets can see that gold is up, stocks down, the US Dollar is up, and oil looks to be heading above 100. It's hard to know where to focus one’s attention or even where to start and it really helps to be able to just look at some charts and put some of these moves in context. Yes, the price of Crude Oil is high, but it’s been higher – back in 2011 and 2012 it was regularly above 110 and in 2008 we were a lot nearer to 150. The stock markets are down a lot, take a look at a chart and see where the support is – I wrote about this recently. For the S+P, the base of the cloud is nearer to 3875…the 200-week ma is down at 3387. By the way a good thing to note is that during periods of uncertainty that markets tend to mean revert to their long-term moving averages and in particular I like to watch to 55 and 200- week moving averages – if you are not a sophisticated chart watcher – no bother, if you just know where these 2 moving averages are you can use these as a proxy for a target zone. The 2020 high on gold was nearer to 2030 BUT we know that gold is in a long term up move and the chances are we are going to make a new high. What do we use if we are in all-time highs for targets, there are many techniques - Fibonacci extensions, point and figure (probably my favourite), channels, and patterns to name but a few are all ways to give you upside targets. I have a Fibonacci extension on the topside at 2110 ish, but I also have another more important target nearer to 2150. So, my advice is do not panic – LOOK AT A CHART!! Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
SP:SPXEducation
by The_STA
32
My Trading Strategy in 4 simple steps.Today I will explain step by step the process I use to develop setups. This is how my strategy works. And this can be applied to any asset and using any technical tools. This is as close as I can get to using an empiric approach to define my trading opportunities. Let's start. My trading strategy is composed of 4 steps: 1) Whats the context of the price? Here, I want to understand all the characteristics of the current situation I'm observing. Mainly I will try to define this in the Daily chart. Examples: * Are we making a new ATH? * Are we inside a 300 days correction? * Is the price above or below a Daily trendline? * Are we inside a small correction or a 50%+ decline? 2) Now that I understand my context. Can I look for similar situations in the historical data of this asset? I only work with assets with enough historical data to conduct this type of analysis. If I'm able to find at least 2 previous situations with similar characteristics to what I'm looking for, I proceed with the next step. Here I use the Weekly and logarithmic chart to identify these situations. 3) Do I see a consistent pattern that I can use to trade in those similar situations in the past? Here I will use lower timeframes like the 4HS chart, and I will look into more details in those similar situations. I will try to find something objective, like "The first retest after the breakout of the most external line of the corrections. If I see consistent behavior and a good risk to reward ratio, I will proceed with the final element of my strategy. 4)Define the pattern I'm waiting for and the execution process in advance. At this stage, I want to say, "I'm waiting for this," and this is how I will trade it. This includes: *Entry level *Stop level *Break-even level *Take profit level. *Risk. And this is it. At this stage, my setup can be executed or canceled depending on the price behavior, but in a nutshell, this is the system I have been using for the last 3 years, and I can say that this has, on average, a win rate of 50% and an average risk to reward ratio of 2. I hope this information was useful. Feel free to share your view in the comments or any doubt you may have. Thanks.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
101
A Story About Simplicity and Moving Average Envelopes CBOT:ZB1! First, a short story. I like simple stuff. Maybe it's just me (I don't think so) but the more complex my process becomes, the worse the trading results. In 1987, four years into my career, I used a combination of Wyckoff and Elliott to make a series of very profitable bond market calls for my institutional clients. I spent my days and nights obsessed with counts, counter counts, alternate counts, Wyckoff sequences, oscillator nuances…. In other words, all the shiny complex things were in play. Needless to say, I came out of the experience a legend…. in my own mind. In retrospect, I had loads of confidence but very limited real knowledge or experience. It's counter intuitive, but the success of 1987 was detrimental to my growth as a trader/analyst. After the great results/luck during the tumult of 1987, 1988 proved difficult. My Elliott count became muddied, I often misread the Wyckoff price volume relationships and while not disastrous, my results turned quite ordinary. As the results worsened I responded by adding ever more complexity to what was an already complex routine. To make a long story short, as complexity increased, results worsened. To suggest that I became frustrated would be an extreme understatement. I questioned my future as a technician/trader. I remember walking into my office one morning after a particularly bad week and deciding that things had to change. I decided to immediately begin simplifying my process. I retreated to basics. Happily for me, as I eliminated complexity I found better results. Over the next few years I continued to simplify and to refine my risk management approach. By simplifying and becoming less risk tolerant I became an effective trader/analyst. Simplicity is robust, it is typically fractal, and reduces difficult decisions to ordinary. Simplicity is also a process. Most only arrive there after a long journey. Moving average envelopes certainly fall into this "simple is simply better" approach. • Construction is simple and intuitive. • Construction is easily adapted for any market or time frame. ○ This is important because every market has a specific character. Some trend for long periods while others chop and mean revert with regularity. ○ Importantly, character changes over time. It had been four years since I last updated my bond moving averages, the changes were significant. ○ Part of this probably has to do with the level of Fed involvement. I don't think I had significantly updated my bond envelopes for nearly thirty years prior to this adjustment. ○ Part of this has to do with the level of interest rates. At lower levels of rates, prices are generally more volatile as durations (a measure of rate sensitivity) become longer. ○ Because the envelope construction is revisited periodically it remains current to changes in market state and condition. ○ Don't assume that envelope settings that work on 30 year futures will work on 10s or 5s. Differences in duration create large differences in volatility ○ Also, the settings that work well on futures won't translate to yields. Using percent change (envelope tops and bottoms are placed at percentages of the moving averages) on a percentage is just wrong. I see supposedly financially literate people do this all the time… what the hell? Building the Envelopes: • The average and the width of the band is an eyeball approximation. Nothing fancy. • Choose one of the available moving average envelope studies available. I used one created by H-potter. • Set average 1 up so that the upper and lower bands follow the price action closely. • Set average 2 up so that the upper and lower bands generally tag the next higher perspective swing points. • Set the third average up so that the upper and lower bands tag the highs and lows of the next more volatile set of swings. • I often add a fourth set of bands that tag the next higher perspective highs and lows. • Don't get carried away. Keep it simple and intuitive. • I am intentionally not providing my settings. I don't think they are important but I think its important for you to go through the process for the particular market and time frame you are working in. How I use the Envelopes: • Convergence of the upper or lower bands suggest that the market has become overbought or oversold. • Odds of correction, even if laterally, expand significantly when the band extremes converge. • You would never buy or sell based upon the convergence. But you might reduce a long/short position or begin monitoring for reversal behaviors as the bands come together. • I generally use the warning of an extended trend given by the bands to begin closely monitoring price action, searching for tradable setups with good risk reward characteristics. Conclusion: Simplicity can provide a real edge while complexity often becomes a headwind to success. This simple moving average envelope system can be modified for nearly any market or time frame and is adaptive over time. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by CMT_Association
46
TYPES OF FIBONACCI's & WHEN TO USE THEM 📐📏 Hey traders, In this article we will discuss two very popular Fibonacci tools: Fibonacci retracement and extension. 1️⃣Fib.Retracement tool is applied to identify a completion point of a retracement leg within an impulse. As you know price action has a zig-zag form. For example, in a bullish trend, the price tends to set a higher high then retrace and set a higher low before going to the next highs. In a bearish trend, the price tends to set a lower low and retrace to a lower high. With retracement levels, we are trying to spot the point from where the next impulse in a bullish or bearish trend will initiate based on the last impulse leg. Fib.levels that we will apply are: ✔️0.382 ✔️0.5 ✔️0.618 ✔️0.786 The retracement levels will be drawn based on XA impulse leg. From its low to high if the impulse is bullish and from its high to low if the impulse is bearish. From one of the above-mentioned levels, a trend-following movement will be expected. One should apply different techniques to confirm the strength of one of these levels. 2️⃣Fib.Extension tool is applied to identify a completion point of the impulse. In a bearish trend, the extension levels will indicate a potential level of the next lower low based on the length of the last bearish impulse. Fib.levels that we will apply are: ✔️1.272 ✔️1.414 ✔️1.618 The extension levels will be drawn based on XA impulse leg. From its low to high if the impulse is bullish and from its high to low if the impulse is bearish. From one of the above-mentioned levels, a retracement leg will initiate. One should apply different techniques to confirm the strength of one of these levels. Of course other ways of application Fib.Retracement and Extension levels exist. However, these two are the most common. How do you use these levels? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
161
Beware False Breakouts! How To Spot Them...Investors should use basic Technical Analysis for powerful decision making. I see it as a challenge to demonstrate how useful knowledge of one simple pattern can be to identify price reversals. Recognizing this pattern and acting on it will save much money and headache! Both traders and investors need to be on guard for false breakout reversals. Seeing this pattern in action can provide an excellent profit target, entry point, or prevent major drawdown! In this video I look at examples in the Silver ETF AMEX:SLV , Spotify stock NYSE:SPOT , and Forex Euro/Dollar pair FX:EURUSD for false breakouts and what follows. I am excited to make this video for my viewers and for Best of Us Investing!
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by norok
72
Credit Monitoring Basics: A Must Have SkillThese data series are all available in the Trading View platform. Since the turn of the year the price of LQD, the investment grade corporate credit ETF, has declined nearly 10 points (-7.3%) and since early August is down 13 points (-10%). The important question is…. Why? Knowing how to monitor credit is an important skill, particularly since so many in the commentary or advice business so misunderstand it. In this post I want to provide basic tools that will allow you to perform a down and dirty evaluation. Why is credit so important? The Federal Reserve is much more sensitive to credit distress than they are to equity distress. If companies are unable to secure funding, they may face liquidity problems, and liquidity problems have the potential to become systemic. In 2008 and again in 2020 credit markets were, in essence, frozen. Particularly in 2008, even short term funding markets froze. There were plenty of offers but in many cases no bids. Being an old bond guy, I may be prejudiced, but credit makes the economy go and in general terms is much more important to short term functionality than equity. I think the Fed is more responsive to credit market functionality than it is to equity distress. Listening to the angst of the want-to-be macro analysts or simply looking at the price of credit ETFs like LQD or HYG might lead one to believe that credit was generating an economic warning or danger sign. That narrative is, at least for now, false. Corporate bond yield has two primarily components: • Base rate: In the case of fixed coupon corporates the base rate is the nearest maturity on-the-run (most actively traded) U.S. Treasury (TR). The base rate is generally thought of as the risk free rate. • Spread to the base rate: The spread above the base rate compensates credit investors for the higher risk of default and downgrade and the wider bid-offer (liquidity) spreads involved in corporate trading. • For instance: 10 year Treasuries yield 2.00% and a ten year XYZ corporate security is offered at 120 basis points (bps) to TR. All-in-yield for XYZ is 3.20%. Because there are two primary constituents of a corporate yield, price change can be driven by two things. • Changes in the base rate. In other words, changes in treasury yields. • Changes in the credit spread. Spreads widen/narrow to the base rate as investors seek additional/less compensation for default, liquidity and downgrade risk. Normally the primary driver of changes in corporate ETFs and indices is change in the base rate/treasury yields. Said another way, TR yields are more volatile than corporate spreads. • Big changes in Treasuries equate to big changes in corporate bond prices. Chart 1: This is a long term chart of IEF (7-10 year Treasury ETF) plotted with LQD (the investment grade bond ETF). • You can see how closely the two correlate. • There will be some difference due to differences in duration (a measure of rate sensitivity) of the index versus the duration of the Treasury and changes in the spread component. • But, clearly, changes in Treasury rates have an outsized influence on corporate bond rates/prices. Chart 2: Option adjusted spread of the ICE BofA Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY) Corporate Index's: • The OAS offers a way to assess the credit spread component of a corporate bonds yield. • Investment grade index is +1.08% to the base rate. • High yield spread is +3.44% to the base rate. ○ There is more default risk in high yield, so the compensation, or spread to the base rate, is correspondingly higher than that of IG. • Both IG and HY spreads remain very near historic lows with very little evidence that credit investors are growing fearful of default, downgrade, or liquidity risk. Chart 3: All in yield BBB corporate index (top), BBB OAS or credit spread (center) and ten year treasury note yields (bottom). • The all-in-yield, of the ICE BofA BBB index has risen significantly over the last few months. ○ Remember that in a bond, higher yields equate to lower prices. So a higher all-in-yield means that corporate bond prices are lower. • BBBs are the lowest rating category of the Investment grade index and are more sensitive to the ebb and flow of default and downgrade risk than the investment grade index as a whole. • While the all-in-yield has risen sharply over the last few months the OAS has barely budged from support. Investors are not yet demanding more compensation for default risk. The change in corporate pricing has been driven by the sharp rise in rates. Bottom Line: To understand the state of the credit market, you have to assess both changes in rate and changes in the spread. Hopefully you now have the tools to do a down and dirty assessment of your own. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:LQDEducation
by CMT_Association
40
Harmonic Patterns of Technical Analysis !!!👨‍🏫In this post, I tried to show you the most important Harmonic Patterns of Technical Analysis . These patterns are more valid at higher timeframes. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe. What is Harmonic Pattern ❗️❓ Harmonic patterns are chart patterns that form part of a trading strategy, and they can help traders to spot pricing trends by predicting future market movements. They create geometric price patterns by using Fibonacci numbers to identify potential price changes or trend reversals Harmonic Patterns of Technical Analysis: 🦇 Bat 🦇 Harmonic Pattern: The Bat pattern is a retracement and continuation pattern that occurs when a trend temporarily reverses its direction but then continues on its original course. It gives you the opportunity to enter the market at a good price, just as the pattern ends and the trend resumes and has a bullish and bearish version. It is similar to the Gartley pattern but completes at an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the X-A leg. A true Bat pattern will include each of the following: the AB=CD pattern or an extension of this pattern; a 161.8% to 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the B-C leg; an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the X-A leg. One way of trading a bullish Bat pattern is to place your buy order at point D (the 88.6% retracement of the X-A leg) Place your stop loss just below point X. Draw a new Fibonacci retracement from point A-D of the completed pattern and take profit at the point where the price will have retraced 61.8% of the distance between A-D. To trade a bearish Bat pattern (a short/sell trade), simply invert the pattern and your orders. 🦇 ALT Bat 🦇 Harmonic Pattern: The Alternate Bat Pattern is a precise harmonic pattern™ discovered by Scott Carney in 2003. The pattern incorporates the 1.13XA retracement, as the defining element in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). The B point retracement must be a 0.382 retracement or less of the XA leg. The Alternate Bat pattern™ utilizes a minimum 2.0 BC projection. In addition, the AB=CD pattern within the Alternate Bat is always extended and usually requires a 1.618 AB=CD calculation. The Alternate Bat pattern™ is an incredibly accurate pattern that works exceptionally well in the RSI BAMM divergence setup. 🦋 Butterfly 🦋 Harmonic Pattern: The Butterfly is a reversal pattern that allows you to enter the market at extreme highs or lows. It is similar to the Gartley and Bat patterns but the final C-D leg makes a 127% extension of the initial X-A leg, rather than a retracement of it. To trade the Butterfly, enter the market with a long or short trade at point D of the pattern – the price should reverse direction here. Place your stop loss just below (bullish trade) or above (bearish trade) the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the X-A leg. For an aggressive profit target, place your take profit order at point A. For a more conservative profit target, place your take profit order at point B. 🥇 Gartley 🥇 Harmonic Pattern: The Gartley pattern is a retracement pattern that occurs when a trend temporarily reverses direction before continuing on its course. It includes the AB=CD pattern in its structure and gives you the chance to go long (bullish Gartley) or short (bearish Gartley) at the point where the pattern completes and the trend resumes. It relies on Fibonacci levels, which determine how far price retraces or extends during the formation of the patterns – MetaTrader 4 can automatically add these levels to your chart. To trade using the Gartley pattern, place your buy order at the point where the C-D leg achieves a 78.6% retracement of the X-A leg. Place your stop loss just under point X. Draw a new Fibonacci retracement from point A-D of the completed pattern and take profit at the point where the price will have retraced 61.8% of the distance between A-D. 🦀 Crab 🦀 Harmonic Pattern: The Crab is a reversal pattern that allows you to enter the market at extreme highs and lows. It is similar to the Butterfly pattern but the final C-D leg makes a deeper 161.8% extension of the initial X-A leg. To trade the Crab, enter the market with a long or short trade at point D of the pattern – the price should reverse direction here. Place your stop loss just below (bullish trade) or above (bearish trade) point D. For an aggressive profit target, place your take profit order at point A. For a more conservative profit target, place your take profit order at point B. 🦈Shark🦈 Harmonic Pattern: The structure of a shark pattern has an impulse leg (X-A) and a retracement leg (B). In this case, the retracement has no particular value. The continuation leg (C) has to get to a Fibonacci extension of 113 percent of the B-A leg, but shouldn’t go beyond the 161.8 percent mark, a retracement for X-C follows afterward. The shark pattern so obtained has to get to an extension of 88.6 percent of this retracement, but should not be more than 113 percent. The next Fibonacci extension will be B-C, which is an extension of the A-X leg, within the 161.8 to 224 percent range. But as far as entering a trade goes, it is different from other harmonic patterns, for example: The entry point should be at an extension of 88.6 percent of the O-X leg, and the stops will follow up at point C Targets can be at 61.8 percent of the B-C leg It is not difficult finding the zone to enter trades. This is the area where the X-C Fibonacci retracement and the B-C Fibonacci extension overlap The main factor that differentiates between the harmonic shark and other patterns is that it depends on the 88.6 percent and the 113 percent reciprocal ratios. Once the price point at D is created, prices decline or rally very quickly. Therefore it needs active management of the trade. In other words, you simply cannot set up the harmonic shark pattern and come back a while later to trade it. By that time price would have gone a major distance. 3️⃣ Three 3️⃣ Drives Harmonic Pattern: The three drives pattern is a reversal pattern designed to highlight times when the market is exhausted in its current move. The pattern has a bullish version and a bearish version. The pattern is composed of three waves or drives that complete at a 127% or 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The trade is entered in the opposite direction to the overall move when the third drive is completed at a 127% or 161.8% Fibonacci extension. The stop loss goes below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension for a buy and above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension for a sell. Draw a new Fibonacci retracement from the start of the pattern to the completion point of the pattern and take profit at the point where the price will have retraced 61.8% of that distance. 🔁 AB=CD 🔁 Harmonic Pattern: The AB=CD pattern helps you identify when a price is about to change direction so that you can buy when prices are low and sell when they are high. The pattern consists of three legs, with two equal legs labeled AB and CD, together they form a zig-zag shape – hence its nickname, the 'lightning bolt'. It can be used in any financial market and in any time frame. When a market is trending upwards, the first leg (A-B) is formed as the price rises from A to B. At point B, the price switches direction and retraces down sharply to form the B-C leg – ideally a 61.8% or 78.6% retracement of the price increase between points A and B. The price then continues its original uptrend, forming a C-D leg that should be the same length as the A-B leg. Once you have decided where you think the pattern will complete (point D), you should place a sell order at this point and look to profit from a price reversal. Place your stop loss a few pips above point D. Drawing a new Fibonacci retracement from point A to D of the completed pattern and a take profit at the point where the price will have retraced 61.8% of the distance between A and D. You would approach a downtrending market with a bullish (buy) trade at point D in exactly the same way – the pattern and your trading orders will simply be reversed.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by pejman_zwin
57
Human vs MachinesChart patterns detection needs an extensive learning process and experience, no matter if you are a human or a machine! Machine Learning Workflow: There are five core tasks in the common ML workflow: 1. Get Data 2. Clean, Prepare & Manipulate Data 3. Train Model 4. Test Model 5. Improve Since the chart patterns, beta version indicator has been released, I started working with it to find out how it works. In the following examples, you will see the comparison between my pattern (left side) and platform pattern (right side)! I activate the triangle, pennant, and wedge pattern indicator..! 1- Daily chart: machines did not detect anything: 2- 4 hours chart: machines did not detect anything: 3- 4 hour charts: I changed the regular time to extended hours! Finally, the machine detects something..! Educational point: There are hundreds of thousands of indicators and oscillators out there, some work, some don't! The question is: Are you able to use them correctly and increase their performance??? Think about it..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:RIVNEducation
by Moshkelgosha
30
Techniques For Getting Better Prices 🎯Hey everyone! 👋 Last week, we posted an idea about the three main order types that market participants use: Market orders, Limit orders, and Stop orders. This week, we thought we’d take it a step further, and discuss some of the more advanced techniques that professional traders use to get better prices, using those three order types. 🎯 Technique 1: Use Limit-Thru orders instead of Market orders 📈 This is a popular technique among traders in nearly all scenarios. If you’re looking to “take” liquidity (you’re the aggressor in the trade), using a Limit-thru order is almost always a better option than using a Market order. Limit-thru orders are so-named because they are Limit orders - “I would like to purchase shares at this price and no worse” - but the aforementioned price is above the best offer. For example, Let’s look at AAPL again. Let’s say the stock is bid at $175.01 and offered at $175.03. A buy Limit-thru order could be priced at $175.05. A Limit order like this is “thru” the price of the best offer, and is thus “marketable”. The reason that Limit-thru orders are often better than market orders is because of market microstructure. If you place the Limit-thru order as described above, then you might not get a full fill, but you won’t pay drastically more than you expected. With a market order, the market maker might fill you on your first set of 100 shares, and then move up offers on other exchanges where you get the rest of your fills. The BATS exchange is closer to Manhattan than the NY4 datacenter, which houses a lot of the bigger exchange servers. This means that your order may hit BATS before the other exchanges. If a market maker knows that there is buying interest in something, they will fill the first 100 shares of something, then out-run your order to other exchanges that have more liquidity and potentially move up their offers, getting you a worse price. This doesn’t always happen, but the way the markets are set up allows for antics like this. Pros will often use Limit-thru orders (where the order price is offer+0.02c, for example) to sidestep these issues. The same is true when reversed for selling assets. Technique 2: Work your orders. 💪 Fun Fact: The Orderbook you see may not be the real Orderbook. It’s true! When it comes to the market for any given security, there are two types of limit orders: “Lit” orders, and “Dark” orders. When looking at the depth of market, you are only seeing some of the picture! Sometimes, there will be hidden orders in between the price you want and the price that’s shown. By placing your order within the spread, it’s possible to get better prices than you would have otherwise from dark orders / pegs / etc. Additionally, if you place your order in between the spread, you become the new best price on your side. This may encourage someone looking to take the opposite side of the trade to come and meet you where you are. This is especially true in options markets where spreads are often wide and slow moving. Working your orders (posting them, and moving them around) will almost certainly get you better fills than hitting the best posted price on the other side of the trade. Just make sure you don’t miss the move while waiting to get filled! Technique 3: Use the Orderbook to your advantage. 🧾 It’s rare when it happens, but occasionally non-sophisticated market participants will “show their hand” in the market. This typically involves one large lit limit order that sticks out like a sore thumb in an orderbook. If this person begins to signal aggression, you might be able to score an awesome price on the assets you’re looking for. For example: Let’s say that you’re looking to buy some AAPL stock, and you pull up the orderbook (depth of market). From here, you can see that there’s a massive sell limit order that is slowly moving it’s price lower and lower in an attempt to get filled. This kind of obvious sell pressure can lead to a significant price move as the market front runs all of the liquidity the whale is looking for. This may continue for some time until the whale starts getting paid. When this happens, the stock has likely found a local area of demand, which is probably a much better price than what you were expecting when you pulled up the order ticket. Bottom line, it can make sense to take advantage of these situations if you see them before sending out orders. That’s it! Some tips and tricks for getting better prices using orders and the orderbook. -Team TradingView 💘 If you missed it, this was the beginner idea from last week:
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by TradingView
53
Why You Should Learn To Trade Interest RatesIf you're trading this market right now you have to keep your eye on Interest Rates. Why? Interest Rates have the largest web in the market. They impact every market we trade (even crypto :) What rates are doing not only impact the markets we trade, they impact us in everyday life. In this video I go over the best way to trade interest rates and even if you're not interested in trading interest rates, I go over the best markets to keep up on your quotes to see what rates are doing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Derivatives trading is not suitable for all investors. 
CBOT_MINI:2YY1!Education
by anthonycrudele
27