Trading Success Isn't As Smooth As You Imagined!Hi traders, here we are on another workshop. In this workshop, I will be elaborating my personal trading journey with my sincerest opinion. Here are 5 stages you will go through becoming a Consistently Profitable trader
Phase 1 - Constantly losing big
• This phase is where your trading journey begin. You're filled with passion, your subconscious & conscious mind are blinded by the imagination of trading success.
• You believed that trading isn't that difficult, and you're one of the top 10% that will achieve consistent profitability within a short period of time. Most of my students and members approached me during their first year of trading, fueled with passion, and thought that they should be achieving their trading goals with limited effort. But the ugly truth is, 80% - 90% of them got smashed by the markets pretty harsh, and left trading later on.
• You have no idea what you're doing, you have little to no knowledge and experience.
- If this is you, what you should be doing now, is to absorb information like a sponge and keep striving.
Phase 2 - Losing less
• This is when you come to a realization that you're no different than most of the traders. You're probably scared by the markets, you begin stepping back a little bit.
• You realized if you keep doing what you're currently doing, it's just the matter of time you will blow up more accounts again, and again. You clearly know what you're not supposed to do and what you're supposed to do, but with a
lack of direction. You absorb everything and you test out whatever information you received. You jumped from strategy to strategy, courses to courses, and webinars to webinars.
- If this is you, you should be focusing on identifying your strength & weakness, and stop confusing yourself with overloaded information. Spend more time on reading yourself, and admit your mistakes.
Phase 3 - Breakeven
• Most traders at this stage have a clear goal and understand what they're doing wrong. But most of them have no clear direction and resources on where and how to begin with.
• You probably have a proper trading plan, money management skill, and a healthy mindset, but you just need guidance.
- If this is you, I'd suggest you to find mentorship to fast-pace your learning curve. List out all your strategies to examine which one works best by reviewing your journal.
Phase 4 - Inconsistent wins
• If you're able to achieve this phase, you are one of the very top traders.
• Traders at this stage should have a proper trading plan, a specific trading system/ style, with an unbeatable mindset. Remember to NEVER distract yourself again with excess information.
- If this is you, you should be working on refinement and improvement. Focus on the details such as the probability of success on each setup, breaking them down into various parts, such as entry timing, effective Trade Management
(Scale-in & Scale-Out), exits, etc...
- If you are at this stage, remember to NEVER distract yourself again with excess information. Focus.
Phase 5 - Consistently profitable
• Successful traders 'dance' with the market. Trading has become a systematic process with little to no emotion attached.
- What you need to do now, is to focus on scaling up your trading size. You can either compound your account slowly, or start building a solid track records and start finding potential investors. Good traders always trade big, because the ultimate goal of trading is to make money.
Do not have the misperception that once you've reached the consistently profitable phase, you should be making a lot of money. Good traders are those who never deviate from their trading plan, with consistency and full of motivation. It's always fine to step back a little bit, as long as you're progressing.
Comment down below where are you at in your trading journey!
Do not forget to like if you enjoy the sharing. Trade safe and take care.
Risk Management
Skill VS Luck - Becoming a Consistently Profitable TraderHi traders, here we are on another workshop. Today I'll be sharing some of the points on differentiating skill or luck trading. Majority of the traders have absolutely no clue on are they doing the right things or not? Here's a few key points:
Skill
1. Winners and Losers
- If you are a skilled trader, you're someone who understand the probable and possible in trading. There's no guarantee on any single trade whether it's a winner or loser. Remember, the short-term outcome in trading is completely random, what's more important is to come out being profitable in the long-term. Never judge your performance based on the short-term outcome, think long-term.
2. Good Risk Management
- Good traders always have effective risk management in place. Not any single trade is able cause damage on their capital, and they truly understand how to detach themselves from negative emotions.
3. Repeatable
- Good traders have a repeatable process, that allows them to tackle the market in the same way every single day.
4. Proper Planning
- Good traders rarely deviate from their initial plan, as they understand that a planned trade is a good trade regardless of the outcome. Any trade taken out of impulsive behaviour, is considered a bad trade regardless of the outcome.
5. Consistency
- Good traders have a set of routine and action plan. To achieve consistent results, you must have a consistent performance.
6. Execution
- Good traders have little to no hesitation when it comes to executing their trades. They execute their plan without second guessing or doubt.
Luck
1. No loser
- Most gurus' or lucky traders would promote themselves having 80% - 90% strike rates, which could never happen in reality. The only way you can achieve such a high win rate is to have a Profit Factor of less than 1. In fact, most of the best traders out there have a strike rate of 40-50%.
2. Excessive Risk Exposure
- Losing traders have no idea how to isolate themselves from a bad state of mind. They're constantly putting up a lot of risk on the table regardless of having no clue on what's going on in the markets. The sense of urgency is rushing them on taking unnecessary risk.
3. Unrepeatable
- Losing traders constantly take trades out of their trading plan, which is not duplicable. If you're taking trades that is unrepeatable, most likely it's a lucky trade and you shouldn't be happy about it even if it turns out to be a winning position.
4. Impulsive Behaviour
- Losing traders deviate from their initial plan due to uncontrolled emotion. They're taking trades they're not supposed to take, then regrets later on.
5. No routine
- Losing traders have no daily routine. They're always blind firing all over any 'seems' profitable position. Most of them possess of potential over-trading habits.
6. Hope & Praying
- Losing traders are constantly looking for the 'best trade' that'd give them an enormous return. Most of them have no trading plan and proper Risk Management in place, causing them to experience an emotional rollercoaster on any particular position when it gets out of hand.
"Chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken." - Warren Buffett
Let me know in the comment below what's your worst trading nightmare!
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8 Trading Habits of Successful TradersConsistently profitable traders have a lot of things in common. Watching how they act and following their ideas & thoughts we can spot a lot of commonalities among them. In this post, I have collected 8 trading habits that a trader should have to become successful.
1️⃣ - Realistic Expectation & Vision
Many traders, most often beginners, commonly fall for the trap of wishful thinking. When analysing the charts, they usually only view the market from one bias and only perceive price heading in one direction.
And this is typically the one that their own analysis is pointing towards. However, going into each trade with a realistic expectation that the market doesn't care what you think may happen, and being prepared for a trade to go wrong will help keep you level headed.
2️⃣ - Anticipation of Different Outcomes
Anything can happen in financial markets and for this reason, professional traders always justify their decisions in probabilities.
They understand that 100% chances do not exist so looking at all possible probabilities before entering any trades, the trader is always ready for completely different outcomes and accepts each and every move given by the market.
3️⃣ - Emotional Stability
The market is a wild beast who always wants to bite us and most of the time it manages to do that e.g. drawdowns & losing streaks...
Those who trade for at least 1 year know how unpredictable and unstable the market can be. A perfectly looking trading setup can easily turn into a big losing trade.
Of course, that is painful and of course with more & more losses, the anxiety will begin to chase us, the stress will overwhelm us and you may begin to start second guessing yourself.
Only by remaining stable and calm, you will manage to overcome the negative periods. Learn to control your emotions, learn to take losses!
4️⃣ - Continuous Learning
The markets are infinitely deep in their nature. Trading & constant monitoring of the market always unveil new, uncharted elements and things.
Throughout all my years of day trading, I can't help wondering how many new things I learn each and every day. With continuous learning you evolve, you become better and it improves your trading performance & results.
5️⃣ - Flexibility & Adaptivity
The markets are always changing. If you were trading before COVID crisis, I guess you feel how the reality among us shifted. With fundamental changes in our daily lives, the markets changed as well.
It is hard to say what exactly has altered though, however, we all can feel it. In order to survive in a constantly changing environment we must always be adapting and never stagnant.
6️⃣ - Trade Journaling
Pro traders always assess their past performance & results. They track each and every trading position that they opened.
Both losing trades and winning trades require analysis and observations. Only by studying the past results the trader can improve his trading performance and evolve. Only by identifying mistakes & peculiar commonalities, the trader learns to lose less than he makes.
7️⃣ - Risk Management
90% of traders lose 90% of their funds within 90 days and under 90 trades . This is a well known statistic in the trading industry and aside from psychological factors, it mainly boils down to incorrect risk management.
If you're looking to survive in this game and have a long, prosperous career in trading. You must have your risk management locked down.
One beneficial risk management habit to develop is to not enter any trades unless they have a risk:reward ratio of at least 1:3+ .
8️⃣ - Trading Plan
Sticking to your trading plan is one way of promoting long-term success throughout your trading journey. Undoubtedly, you will go through many psychological ups & downs, mental battles and periods of low confidence.
Abiding by your own trading plan will help assist in ensuring that you don't step out of line from your own trading rules and allow you to stop yourself from developing bad habits overtime.
9️⃣ - Constant Practice
Professional traders never stop, they always watch the charts, they always monitor the prices, and follow the market.
Trading requires constant TRADING. Just spending one single week on a vacation without charts, you can not imagine how hard it is to return back. The trading skills must be constantly maintained.
Don't wait too long for "CONFIRMATION"!Hi Guys
A popular concept in the world of trading, especially among technical traders and chartists is to wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
This means you have a Signal, for example, a price action pattern and now you wait for the markets to confirm that pattern before you enter. The idea, of course, is to filter out bad trades this way and to gain confidence before entering the trade.
But that confidence might come at a very high price in the long run. The problem with waiting for the market to confirm your trading idea is that this "Confirmation" often already is your profit! In other words, the Signal has worked and you would have been paid to take the risk and trade it.
And that's what you get paid for as a trader, you try to anticipate a price move you believe is going to happen before everyone else does. Please notice that this is true despite your trading style. You might hear statements like „I just follow the markets, I don't try to anticipate what's going to happen." (usually, these come from traders following some kind of trend following approach). But what they really mean is that instead of trying to get into a trade early anticipating the markets to reverse direction, they get in late anticipating that the markets will move even further in the direction it has already been moving. Of course nothing wrong with that, but in either case, traders anticipate a future price move they want to profit from and it's important to be aware of that fact.
Another example is trading a specific support/resistance level. Sure the risk to buy into a support level while the market is in free fall is risky. But that's precisely why these trades often offer you great profit potential. In case the trade works out, you'll get paid for the risk you took. But again…once you see that huge reversal price bar on your chart that bounced nicely off that support level - you probably already missed the opportunity.
You now know that you've been right. That really was a support level and market participants bought again at that price. Because of that price moved up and that's why you now see that huge reversal bar. But that move is over now…and those who took the risk and bought at the level are now taking their profits - hopefully, you're not the one buying from them now.
I could come up with many more examples like waiting for an indicator to confirm a trade etc, but the point to consider is that whenever you wait for confirmation you give up a significant amount of potential profits. And more often than not, these potential profits cost more than a couple of losing trades you might filter out waiting for confirmation. Your job here is to find a good compromise between getting in too early due to a Signal coming from market noise and getting in too late due to a Signal that misses most of the opportunity.
The Ambush trading method, for example, is an extreme case, it gets into trades again the ongoing short-term trend all the time. But that's precisely the idea behind it, trying to anticipate where that short-term trend is likely to end. Sounds risky? Well, looking at the long-term results it's actually a lot riskier to be on the other side of these trades ;)
DO YOU BELIEVE CONFIRMATION?
Three Steps to Become A PROFESSIONAL TRADER 👨💻👩💻
Hey traders,
The road to consistently profitable trading is hard and dangerous. This path can be split into three main milestones. Each of those requires discipline, time & patience.
📚The first step is your trading education.
Starting with a basic understanding of what are the financial markets & how they work and finishing with the sophisticated techniques of risk management, so many things must be learned.
In the beginning you will be most likely paralyzed by the complexity of the whole system. Even the choice of a trading education provider is not that simple taking into consideration the sheer amount number sources that could be found on the internet.
It is highly advisable for you to accompany your trading education with demo account trading so that you could apply what you’ve learned in practice.
💸It is imperative to invest in your education, while simultaneously saving up for your first(but not last) real trading account.
Spending your money on education & then saving in order to build your first trading account, a sufficient amount of money is required.
Be prepared for failures. Be prepared to blow your first and second trading account & fund it again. Be prepared that the majority of premium educational sources won't meet your expectations.
I don't know any trader who succeeded in trading without investing a huge amount of money in that.
👨💻With the money being invested & with the knowledge gained, you must practice on a real account.
You must choose the trading strategy that is appealing to you and start trading with that.
Quite soon you will realize that theoretical knowledge has nothing in common with real market conditions.
You will change trading strategies one after another until you finally find the one that truly makes sense to you.
Then you will spend a couple of years playing with that, learning the rules & constantly polishing your trading plan.
🏁At some moment you will stop losing. At some moment your trading account will start growing steadily and you will become a consistently profitable trader.
As the market conditions change constantly. You must be vigilant & learn to survive in a changing environment. Education, active investing & practice are required from you to keep being afloat.
I hope that this article will help you to build realistic expectations concerning trading.
If you are ready to learn a lot, invest money & practice many years not making a dime, then one day you will definitely make it.
Do you agree with my thoughts?
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5 Key Advices To Share With Trader Who Is Struggling In TradingHello everyone:
Lately many of you have messaged me about getting FOMO and entering trades without confirmations.
In addition you can't seem to “not” enter trades when the market hasn't shaped up to your strategy and entry criteria.
I am hoping in today’s educational video it can help some of you guys to get back on track.
I want to share 5 main pieces of advice that can help out traders who are currently struggling.
These are experiences and lessons that I accumulate throughout the 8 years of trading and in hope to help some of you who are struggling in your current journey of trading.
1. Do “NOT” think about get rich quick in trading
-Trading is a marathon, not a sprint
-90-95% traders fail due to a combination of: Greed, FOMO, mindset/emotion, risk management, trading psychology.
-Trading is not a get rich quick scheme, but it can produce consistent, sustainable passive income if you can put in the time and effort
-Most try to jump to the result right away, without going through the journey, that is not how life works.
2. No trading strategies, style, method can give you 100% strike rate
-Trading is probability, not right or wrong.
-Understand you can have the best strategy in the world, and still not be profitable.
- Technical, Fundamental, Algo, EA...etc can all not work. This is why risk management is important to not over risk, over trade, over leverage your trading account
3. Backtest and journal
-Backtest your strategy so your brain acknowledges and recognizes it over and over again.
-Slowly build up confidence in your strategy and method. IT will come to you like second nature
-Journal all your wins and losses so you can review them. Work on them, accept your mistakes to grow and improve.
4. Control your EGO
-Human beings have ego to prove others are wrong and they are right
-We refuse to admit we made the error/mistakes, and blame others/external as the cause.
-Acknowledge that in trading, stop blaming the market, the broker, the mentor, the strategy...etc.
-Don't take things personally and be offended by it.
5. Never Give Up
-I blew several accounts in the beginning of trading career, gave up and quit trading multiple times
-I always ended up coming back to trading. After taking time off. Whether that is weeks or months in the beginning journey.
-No one is born into a trader, just like no one is born into a doctor, lawyer.
-If trading was that easy, then everyone would be rich.
-Success is measure by how many times you get back up when you failed
I hope these pointers can help you guys to get more focus and get back on track in trading.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know, thank you
Jojo
Below I will share others educational videos that have direct relations to the topics above:
Trading Psychology: How to deal & manage losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?
Prevent Blowing an account by backtesting:
Risk Management 101
BTC/USD Binance.US - This is why I do not use stop losses.. I must start by saying that I believe Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investing offers the greatest opportunity for the common man to build wealth to have ever existed in the history of the world. Yet, it is still an endeavor that must be entered into cautiously and with research if one is to be successful.
The Daily Chart for BTC/USD on (the pathetic excuse of an exchange) Binance.US, serves as a teachable moment that should not be ignored. This chart demonstrates that if you cannot go to sleep peacefully without having a stop loss in place then you may need to reconsider being in this game.
The traditional methods of trading securities that were used in the regulated stock markets of the world and which subsequently made a lot of the famous traders of old very rich, predated high frequency trading and algorithmic trading bots on these mostly unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges. Yet, these outdated methods are currently being peddled and taught by the get-rich-trading-crypto-gurus today as the "secrets to crypto trading profits", despite this being 20th century methods that will cause you to lose your shirt if adhered to when trading crypto. Any endeavor to read and learn about crypto trading will, almost without fail, lead to a regurgitated list of the same old trading clichés. One such example: the so-called number one rule of trading. Always use a stop loss. The number one rule of successful trading is undoubtedly to limit your losses. This may be true, but if you are doing that with a stop loss on an exchange then you are asking to be robbed. Yes, you have to know when to cut your losses and move on, but unfortunately, because of the nature of swimming these dangerous financial waters, the sharks in the crypto space will eat your lunch, steal your crypto at bargain prices and laugh as you weep over what could've been. The order books are open. Anybody with a desire to do so can launch a trading "bot" using an API on most any crypto exchange. If that person or entity happens to have enough capital to clear the buy or sell side of the order books of an exchange, then they are free to do so. Once this is done, your crypto is gone at a bargain price with the classic stop loss shake out. Which is why if I cannot hold it without a stop loss, then I don't need it. If a drop in price doesn't present an opportunity for me to buy more, then I don't need it. If I'm not confident that it will be around in 2-5 years from now, then I don't need it. To limit losses, set a price alert on Tradingview, CoinGecko, or your exchange watchlist. If you are afraid it will drop too much before you can act on it, or if it suffers from a lack of volume and thus has a lack of liquidity, then perhaps it's best to HODL or leave it be.
If you don't know what any of this means, then that could be a sign that you may need to do a little more due diligence.
DEVELOPING YOUR TRADING PLAN | Your Whys and Hows 📝
Hey traders,
To trade the market profitably you need to have a plan.
A set of rules & conditions to rely on each and every time when you are searching for a trading opportunity.
A trading plan of a professional trader is very sophisticated. It consists of various different elements. The precision there is pushed to the limits.
In this article, we will discuss a trading plan of a newbie trader. A trader who just completed a basic educational course and looks for a trading strategy to trade with. The proposed trading plan will be based on very very essential elements that must be included in any trading plan.
💱Know what you trade.
Know exactly what market are you focused on and which trading instruments are on your radar.
For example, being a stock trader, you can not follow all the world stocks, you should narrow down your list and specify that.
⌛Know what time frame you analyze.
There are multiple styles of trading. Trading style can be defined by a trading time frame.
Trading setups taken on a daily time frame are dramatically different from setups spotted on 1-hour time frame.
📈Know exactly the desired market conditions.
There are two main states of a market:
The market can be in a trend and the market can consolidate.
Depending on the state of the market the trader can look for trend-following opportunities; trade the ranging market or look for reversal counter-trading setups.
💸 Know your desired risks.
The max amount of active trading positions,
risk percentage per a single transaction,
max allowable drawdown.
All these numbers must be considered & calculated precisely.
💡Know your entry reasons.
There are thousands of different reasons to open a trading position. However, they can be easily sorted by various categories.
Three universally accepted categories of entry conditions are:
patterns, indicators, fundamental news.
The trader must strictly know in advance the conditions that he is looking for to open a trading position.
🛑Specify your stop placement rules.
Losses are inevitable and must be strictly controlled.
As with the entry reasons, there are a lot of different stop placement techniques.
You must know exactly what do you rely on to place your stop wisely.
3 most common stop placement techniques are:
pip-based, structure-based and indicator-based.
🟢Know your targets.
Opening a trading position and catching a rally the trader must have strict rules for profit-protection/profit-taking.
The two most common ways of profit protection are take profit levels based on fixed levels/pip numbers & trailing stop.
All these elements must be strictly included in your trading plan.
If at least one of them is missing, don't trade.
With time, as you mature, you will have more and more elements & conditions in your trading plan. That will make your trading more precise & consistent.
Do you have a trading plan?
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3 Ways To Invest In Crypto Market WITHOUT Education 💡You got a busy life and you don't have time to research and learn about thousands of cryptos,
Or you maybe don't see yourself and your life a trader,
Maybe aren't even interested in capital market.
You just heard Crypto Market is gaining a lot of profit and you just don't want to miss it..
You know what?? You hear from a Shit Coin.. You buy some.. And You will lose most of or maybe all your money ..
This IDEA will guide you through this situation, it will let you know how to invest successfully (probably), in crypto market.
I tried to minimize the risk for you..
SHALL WE BEGIN???
There are three possible ways, the First one will cost you money, the Second and the Third are free of charge.
FIRST: Go to an expert consultant.
The only thing you need to do, is to research and find suitable expert consultant for yourself. After that everything is done.
He/She, will gather some of your personal information to know you better to arrange a personal crypto portfolio.. This type of portfolio is uniquely designed for you and your personal goals..
And of course this way will cost you money due the type of expert you find.
SECOND: Bitcoin & Ethereum.
Clear your mind from whatever exciting coin and token you hearing all around the social media or you friends..
Bitcoin and Ethereum are the King and the Queen of the market, AND NOTHING ELSE MATTERS...
Try to calculate how much money can you HOLD or HODL for at least 5 YEARS . Buy Bitcoin/Ethereum with that money and store it in a safe place and just don't think about it anymore until that 5 year deadline comes up.
I believe you will be surprised when you see the outcome of your investment. And don't remember that at least 5 year is so important.
free of charge this one.
THIRD AND LAST: DCA, Dollar-Cost Averaging.
Did you remember older members of the family always told us, don't spend all your income. Put some of your income into the bank, monthly. It'll come handy some day.
Dollar Cost Averaging is something like that, and you know what?? It will work perfectly on Cryptos.
The only thing you need to do, is to calculate you monthly costs and income. After that promise something to yourself, I WILL SAVE SOME OF MY INCOME INTO CRYPTO EVERY MONTH. It can be %5, %10, %15,... whatever number you and your life feel comfortable with.
This DCA needs Three situations for you to concentrate on. First , You should keep your promise and buy crypto every month no matter what happens. Second , you should again wait at least 5 years . But don't worry the results will make you satisfied.
And Third , Just buy Bitcoin or Ethereum again and nothing else. Don't remember The KING and The QUEEN.
Why it is called AVERAGING??? because, no matter what is the price your filling your bag every month, so you will buy bitcoin in the deep, in the middle and in the top. This way you will buy your asset in an average price, without even knowing anything from the market.
This one was free of charge too, and I believe from bottom of my heart you will be excited from the result..
This is it.. I hope you enjoyed this IDEA.. If you did so, push the LIKE button and feel free to talk to me in comment section :)
Volume Profile (Top 3 Reasons To Use Value Area Trading)Top 3 Reasons To Use Value Area Trading (on Volume Profile)
1) Plots on a vertical scale and gives you a specific price level where the most volume has occurred.
2) You gain far more information about price levels and volume.
3) Most importantly: Makes it easier to sport institutional support and resistance levels.
Why is it important to know where 70% of trading volume? Because retailer traders need to know where large institutional or big banks are buying and selling and need to trade with them, not against them.
POC or point of control is the LINE on chart is the largest volume by institutional traders- on the chart. Largest horizontal line.
*IF price action is above point of control- then trade bullish or buy
*IF price action is below point of control- then trade bearish or sell
You can see thin volume outside of the value area, where price action moves quickly thru areas into value areas.
You can use last couple or few days to find volume profiles or value areas to determine where price action might go too.
Want To Improve Your Trading Game? Play Poker!In virtually any field of athletics it is advised that you should cross-train in order to both avoid injury and increase performance . For example, Football players are encouraged to take up pilates, yoga, and swimming. Runners can reduce injury and increase performance by incorporating Rollerblading, Barre, and Zumba into their routines.
So what should traders do in order to "cross-train" that will make them better traders, to help them "avoid injury" (as in lose money ) and "increase performance" (as in make money )?
My answer: Play Poker!
Yes, Poker and Trading are both "sedentary" activities where you are sitting at a desk or table. It is the brain that needs to be toned, limbered up, and made flexible, not the body. (Though you need to make sure your body is healthy too!) So it is safe to say that the peak performance trader needs a mental cross-training routine, not necessarily a physical one.
So why is Poker the ideal cross-training exercise for traders?
1: Poker Teaches Risk Management
Unless you're a novice or not seriously playing in a virtual poker App, there's little chance you will go "All In" at the poker table. I can count on one hand the number of times I went "all in" and I won every time. Such opportunities rarely happen. When I did move my pile of chips to the center of the table it was because I knew what was in my hand. I "managed my risk". Likewise, the trader or investor should almost never go "all-in", putting their entire account into asset X, Y, or Z because "the market will market" on you and you will lose it all. In trading terms, you can very easily "blow up your account."
As Kenny Rogers says, "You've got to know when to hold'em... and know when to fold'em."
Good risk management requires that even if you lose say, 5 times in a row, you will live to trade another day. I frequently talk about never risking more than 1% of your account on any single trade . A 5% loss is easy to recover from with two 3-R wins, or one 7-R win. Likewise in poker, with a $100 buy-in, you usually have $1 antes, allowing you to play up to 100 hands (even if you were the worst poker player in the world) risking only 1% per hand.
In poker, only if the "odds are in your favor", that is, you have two-pair, or you have three or four-of-a-kind, or a straight, would you consider raising the stakes to 2, 5, or even 10% of your bankroll. If you can make 20R from a 4R "risk" with the odds in your favor, you are now thinking like a professional trader where Risk Management is "Job One".
2: Poker Teaches Emotional Management
I like to teach that our goal as a trader is to be totally mechanical - totally rules-based. Our goal is to "Trade like a Vulcan" or "Trade like Spock: Trade long and prosper!" What's the poker analogy? Having a " Poker Face ". Or as the old antiperspirant commercial said, "Never let'em see you sweat."
We may have an awesome hand, but we can't display a "woo-hoo" face because no one will bet against us. We may have a terrible hand, but we can't put up a "oh, good grief!" face and let others know that they have even the slightest chance of beating us. We have to play every hand waiting for the last card drawn (the river) because that last card can make or break what we are holding in our hand. And very often it is that last card dealt, "the river", that can make or break a poker hand.
3: Poker Teaches You to Play the Probabilities
Growing up in Brooklyn, New York, I remember the famous slogan from the New York Lottery: "You gotta be in it to win it!" They threatened (coerced?) every New Yorker with "fear of loss" if they didn't play the lotto... "Well, yeah, we all know the odds of you winning are are actually close to zero, but of you don't play then they really are zero so you better play or you will feel more like the loser than you already are!"
Thankfully, the odds in winning at Poker are much higher than winning a set of numbers printed on ping-pong balls, which teaches you that when you have an "edge"... when you have a "system" that has the odds in your favor (a winning trading system) you can't try to outsmart the system – you need to play every hand that meets the criteria of your system.
As hockey great Wayne Gretzky said, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." So as Poker players and as traders, we have to play every hand, or every trade that appears that meets our trading plan's criteria, otherwise if we try to "outsmart the market" we will lose every time. And more often than not, even with a terrible hand, say a 2 and 4 of spades, you might find that if you don't fold, every once in a while three spades will appear on the table giving you one of the high-probability hands: the flush . So play every hand . And in trading, take every trade opportunity that appears that qualifies under your rules-based trading system.
4: Poker Teaches You To Stay Humble
My poker buddies and I play every month or so. Early in my tenure when I learned to play poker I realized "Hey, I'm pretty good at this.... I'm gauging the probabilities, I'm keeping my risk-per-hand low, I'm taking small profit after small profit and leaving with twice the money I bought in for or more. Drinks are on me!"
Then I got cocky... Walking into game four I thought to myself "I'm the Vulcan, emotionless, rules-based, odds-calculating poker player, right?"
And that night my proverbial hat was handed to me.
It was one of the worst games I'd played to that point. I over-bid, I bluffed (something I had never done before and my opponents knew it!), and I raised bets on hands I know I should have folded. I re-bought in after losing my original buy-in and lost all of that! And I went home with a valuable lesson: Don't think you can out-smart the probabilities.
The reason we win at poker is the same reason we win at trading. We must always play the odds, we must never play the low probability hands, we must always keep our emotions get the best of us, and when it's time to fold, it's time to fold!"
Last week our poker group met again. I bought in for $50 and left with $135. In trading parlance, that was a 170% return. I was grateful. I learned my lesson. I've got to stay humble and let the hand come to me, let the trade come to me, and never think I can out-smart the table or the market.
5: Poker Teaches You To Set a Financial Target
One of the reasons that casinos give their players free drinks, free upgrades to already expensive suites, and free food is they know that "the more you play, the more you'll pay." You can be up $5,000 for the night, then go get yourself some free lobster tails paired with filet mignon, a bottle of wine, and a decadent dessert. Then you return to the tables all fat, happy, and lubricated and proceed to hand all your winnings back to the House.
I know more than one poker player who has a rule: "When I double my money, I'm done . I may walk in with $500, and when I'm $500 to the positive, I quit and go on to enjoy the rest of my night, otherwise I'll just give it all back."
Similarly, I know many a trader (yours truly included) who may have been up a sizable amount wonderfully early in the trading session, then proceed to give all those winnings back to the market an hour or so later. Setting a daily "win" will prevent you from getting mentally "fat and sassy" where you will become overconfident and then hand your winnings back to the market.
As a Poker player, you may want to make a certain amount of money per game. As a trader, you might want a daily amount of "R" or dollar amount to the positive. In either case, when you hit your goal, even if it's in the first 20 minutes of the trading session you need to close all open trades and enjoy the fact that you did what 90% likely did not do that day: end the day in the green! On other words, "Quit while you're ahead!"
6: Poker Player Are Part of a Vibrant Community Full of Fun People!
Like traders, the number of people who are committed to improving their poker game are few. We need to belong to a strong community of passionate poker players to perfect our craft just as we need to belong to a strong community of passionate (and profitable) traders in order to continually perfect our skill at taking money from the markets each and every day. There are online poker communities you can join (think: Simulated Trading) and there are global in-person Poker communities that can link you up with other players once you're ready to "go live". These communities are generally free to join and will help you build up the skill to become a proficient and profitable Poker player which, more importantly, will help you become an even more proficient and profitable trader.
Is there anything else about Poker that you think needs to be added to the list? Leave a comment below.
As always, Trade well! (And maybe I'll see you at the table!)
How to analyze the market from scratch (Impulse & Correction)Hello everyone:
Many have asked me about demonstrating how to analyze the chart from complete scratch.
When looking at my chart and educational video, it all seems very simple, but many are telling me they are struggling to identify the market.
Today I will go over how I analyze the chart, from the Higher time frame down to lower time frame by using multi-time frame analysis, top down approach.
Specifically by identifying price action, impulse and correction phases of the market.
1. Start from the Higher Time Frame (HTF): HTF can be any time frame higher than the daily chart, such as monthly, weekly, daily.
Personally I like to use daily as a go to time frame as it is widely used by traders.
2. Identify the impulse phase of the market. Understand the impulse phase is a period of fast momentum,
price is either pushing up or down very aggressively, and not much consolidation visible on the HTF.
3. Identify a period of consolidations. Using trendlines, connect the swing highs and lows of the price.
This is to identify the correction/consolidation phase of the market.
Which is the most important aspect in price action analysis.
You will need to be very knowledgeable on the type of continuation, reversal correction patterns/structures the market usually will form.
(I will share many price action patterns/structures that I identify and use in the market below)
4. Once you identify the HTF phase of the market, you will then go down to the Lower time frames (LTF).
LTF can be anything under 2/1 HR, 30/15 Min charts. It's not a specific time frame, rather “Multi time frame analysis”.
You will also identify the impulse phases & Correction phases on the LTF and use trendlines to connect the swing highs and lows of the correction/consolidation phase, just like what we did on the HTF.
5. Now that you have both the HTF and LTF charts drawn out, the key here is to have both the HTF and LTF tell you the same direction/bias.
They should align up and have the same bullish/bearish bias. This will strengthen your probability of success.
I always make sure when I am about to enter any trades, I want the multi-time frames all telling me the same story. Same bias, same direction.
6. Now all that comes down to is forecasting the possible entries, which I have made many videos on this topic and I will share some below.
Understand you would always want to make sure you are either entering during the impulse phase on the LTF,
or the price is about to start the impulse phase to gain the upper hands in the market.
You do not want to enter when the price is in a consolidation which is why many traders end up losing money, stuck in the correction and price isn't moving too much, rather just sideways.
7. Continue to work on analyzing the chart from scratch, get comfortable at identifying the impulse phase in the market,
and do backtesting continuously so you identify the corrections in the market.
This will make you see the chart and the market completely different than before, and you will have a much better probability of entering trades that work out in your favour.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Jojo
Below I will share many educational videos that will help you to understand more on price action analysis, impulse/correction phase, entry, forecasting, backtesting and more.
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Identify a correction for the next impulse move in price action analysis
Multi-time frame analysis
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Parallel Channel (Horizontal, Ascending, Descending)
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Rising/Falling Wedge
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Continuation/Reversal Expanding Structure/Pattern
Risk Management: 3 different entries on how to enter the impulsive phrase of price action
Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market
Risk Management: When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?
How forecasting can benefit your trading journey
Backtesting & Chartwork on Forex Market
Backtesting & Chartwork on Indices Market
Backtesting & Chartwork on Crypto Market
How & Why I backtest:
Are you revenge trading 😖🤔Revenge trading!
It all catches us all out at some point in our trading journey's.
The markets don't care about your loss and neither should you!
Losses are a part of trading and have to be accepted.
No one can be right 100% of the time regardless of method used.
Revenge trading will add to those losses and compound that account draw down even more.
Irrational emotions have no place in trading and they are what lead to revenge trading.
The way to eradicate this issue is by going about your trading a logical manner.
First off is build or use a strategy with a known proven edge.
Second is follow that strategy to the letter and only enter trades when all your parameters/confluences are met.
The markets take from the impatient and give to the patient ones.
The example I am using on chart is using a trend following strategy of our own.
This strategy is a good win percentage and I know that as the built in strategy tester shows me all the stats.
As always the report box is at the bottom of the idea showing those very stats.
A 61% win rate means losers still happen and as you will see on the chart the buy trade hit stop loss before price went on an upward trend.
The old trader in me would of been pouring over this chart trying to guess which way will it go?
What should I do enter a long again? That would of paid of in this instance but not the logical thing to have done it would of been luck and luck only.
Who knows with emotions at play would I of had a thought the price was going to head down? Then place a sell order?
Luckily I didn't have to make any of those choices with emotions at play.
I accepted the loss on the fact I know I'm trading a proven strategy and I simply waited for the next trade alert and let probability play out.
The next trade was a short that found it's intended take profit target.
This process is more simpler for those who are using a mechanical trading system like the one on chart.
But regardless of system or approach in use if you are following the trading plan to the letter revenge trading shouldn't occur.
Find an edge, apply that edge, stick to the proven plan and revenge trading won't be your issue.
Instead you'll be one of the patient ones that the market is giving to 👌👍
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I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
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Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren
Trade everything that moves. The mechanics of the position set💡
Trading on the market can be regarded as a full-fledged struggle for the right to survival, where the main enemies are two factors, infinite randomness and time.
By adapting your positions to what is happening, you risk becoming that very accident and you can only fight with time.
The mechanics of the position set includes a theory about the direction of the price.
Directivity theory
The essence lies in the continuous direction of the price when the distance from the selected zone is inevitable. It is important to highlight the level and work as soon as the price reaches these values.
How is the usual set of positions made
Opening a position in a certain direction, as soon as the price goes against the desired forecast, closing with a stop loss, abandoning the transaction, searching for a new entry point, and trying to predict the direction, is an extremely difficult task.
An example of a set of positions taking into account the theory of price orientation and risk control R
The mechanics of position recruitment are based on clear and simple principles of operation, flexible thinking, quick adaptation to market sentiment.
If you start to apply these mechanics in practice, you will notice how at first glance simple things are difficult to do the practice. There will be a feeling that nothing will work, there is no logical explanation for this, eventually, everything will be lost and a big chaotic high-speed car will crush you.
This is the basic principle, as long as the market is such, you have very little chance of the death of capital. While large funds, investors, and someone else is fighting among themselves for huge movements, we do not necessarily have to accept their rules of the game and play on their territory in predicting the general and long-term direction of the market.
You should think with your head and look for benefits primarily for yourself, taking into account all the nuances of what is happening.
But how to be flexible?
Constantly turning over a position is completely unprofitable, in the final execution, losses exceed the target profit. It is not at all clear where and when to put stops, overturns, and takeaways.
This is where the risk control system R will help us
She kicks down the door, breaks into our strategy, and, as the most important puzzle, falls into its rightful place!
From my experience, the optimal risk per trade for a beginner is $10
With a smaller volume, there will simply be no motivation to work.
But it is worth remembering that the deposit should not be extremely small, as it will not withstand a series of unsuccessful transactions
For example, if the deposit is $100, 1R= $10, the power reserve is 10 stops, this is extremely small
But with $ 400, you can already try, since the probability of getting 40 stops in a row is extremely small
Example of risk calculation for a $1000 deposit
The risk is reasonably low
R=$10
Power reserve 1000/10=100
100 stops
I recommend having a power reserve for the 200R series, from practice I can say that for training and the first results will be enough.
All calculations are carried out without taking into account the commission
A few tips for improving efficiency:
- Do not risk your funds in vain, TradingView provides an excellent opportunity for paper trading (demo) completely free of charge, where you can try out any of your ideas and strategies.
- Search for highly volatile tools and work with them.
- Analyze the broker (exchange) for conditions, commissions play a particularly important role, pay attention and look for more favorable conditions.
- Before you start trading, you should have a clear action plan, the most important component of which should be a risk control system.
- Your stop should be tied only to the mathematical component of the transaction.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Managing Negative Emotions - Psychology of Winning TradersHi Traders. When it comes to trading, psychology is often the biggest pieces among strategy and risk management. In this workshop, I will be breaking down 3 of the most common emotional issues happening on most retail traders. To becoming a consistently profitable trader, it's never about eliminating emotions. Emotions are biological not psychological, it exists within our body system, which cannot be removed completely. But what you can do is to condition your mind to organize its performance, and reduce emotions to the least possible.
If you enjoy the content, make sure you follow my profile and give me a thumbs up for daily fx forecast & educational content.
Trade safe and take care.
Diversify your strategyThe holy grail of diversification is to find several uncorrelated asset classes all with positive returns. One problem, though, is that diversified passive investing has caused all asset classes to become more and more correlated over time. Increasingly, you see stocks, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies all move together.
One approach to diversification that's increasingly popular with quants is to diversify your strategies rather than your asset classes . Long-short strategies are a popular example. Almost by definition, your short strategies will make money when your long strategies lose money, and vice versa. The challenge of making this work is that it's really hard to design short strategies with positive expected return. Since the market tends to go up over time, playing the market short is a bit like betting against the house at a casino. If you find a short strategy that actually works, that's gold right there.
Fortunately, there are some relatively uncorrelated strategies that work for long-only traders. This chart shows the Invesco "Momentum" and "Pure Value" ETFs. As you can see from the red and green arrows, the two ETFs often move in opposite directions. When one is producing positive returns, the other often isn't. Owning both can help smooth out your drawdowns and returns.
The same can be said for "mean-reversion" and "trend-following" strategies. Mean-reversion strategies involve buying assets that have made a big move downward. If you bought China stocks after their recent huge-selloff, that was a mean-reversion trade. Trend-following strategies, by contrast, involve buying assets that have made a big move upward. If you've bought oil and gas stocks in recent weeks, that was a trend-following trade. Both strategies tend to "work," but again, they're somewhat uncorrelated.
These strategies can further be broken down into short-term and long-term versions. Oil and gas is in a short-term uptrend, while the Nasdaq index is in a long-term uptrend. Facebook and Bristol-Myers Squibb are a short-term mean-reversion candidates after their recent sell-offs, while Calavo Growers and Regis Corporation are long-term mean-reversion candidates. The nice thing about using a mixture of short-term and long-term signals is that they allow you both to profit from stable market conditions and to quickly pivot at least some of your capital when market conditions change.
Engulfing (Outside Bar) & Harami (Inside Bar) PatternsFor your homework: find all engulfing, harami and pin bar setups on different Forex pairs on hourly time frames or higher.
Where did these patterns happen- Price and Time?
How could you have traded them? entry, stop loss and targets
What risk management would you use or lot size? What is a pip move worth with keeping trades 1% to 2% of your account.
These two patterns are very powerful, on all time frames- as usual higher time frames are more reliable. You would need to adjust your risk management the higher time frames you trade to generally- lower lot sizes and larger stop losses.
On example daily GBPJPY chart- these moves from both engulfing and Harami two candlestick pattern do not look like much movement, but yellow noted lines are 100 pips each.
How you set up entry, stop losses and targets is all up to you= but remember do not let emotions control you and let greed ruin profitable trades.
The Power Of Outside Bar Or Outside Day (Engulfing)Outside Bar/Outside Day (Engulfing): Rules (chart example is a bullish setup)
1) This bullish outside bar/outside day or engulfing candle means new buy or bullish money is coming into Forex pair
2) Price action encompassed the high and lower of previous days price action (chart: Fridays)
3) This candle happened on a Monday- mostly lowest liquidity and volume of the week
4) Next three days (Tues, Weds and Thurs) - gave you possible entries into this future bullish move
5) This Engulfing or outside bar/outside day pattern would have gave you 350 pips (profit/target) with a 100 pip stop loss or 1: 3.5 risk/reward setup.
6) This engulfing or outside bar/outside day pattern broke the price action (critical price level) of 120.000 on chart
This pattern is more reliable on hour, 4 hour or daily- but can be used on lower time frames of lower then hourly IF you see this at resistance and support, price action level of a round number, fib ret of 50% to 61.8%, etc... more confluences at one price and time would put the probability of profit on your side of trade.
Adjust risk management related to time frame you are trading on and ATR of the pair, this will keep 1% to 2% risk per trade the same.
What Is A Buy & Sell Stop Order?Both Buy and Sell Stop Orders are trade order set before current price hits those orders and gets you into a new trade.
Buy Stop Order:
An order that is executed at a specific predetermined price that is above the current price.
Sell Stop Order:
An order that is executed at a specific predetermined price that is below the current price.
NEVER chases price when making a Forex trade, let price action come to your entry by setting either a Buy or Sell stop order. Then make sure you set your stop loss and targets at that time too.
A.C.E. Strategy is:
1) Alert candle
2) Confirm candle
3) Enter candle
What Are 10 Things You See On Daily September Chart? Add YoursExamples: Do this on daily charts- understanding candlestick language will assist you in trading and risk management.
1) Supply Zone/Resistance area
2) Demand Zone/Support area
3) Trends- bearish or bullish
4) Price Action? Top to bottom how many pips?
5) Any Engulfing Candlestick patterns?
6) Any Harami Candlestick patterns?
7) Any Pinbar Candlestick patterns?
8) And Doji's (undecided) candlesticks?
9) From 1st day to last day of September- was it bearish? was it bullish? or doji (monthly candlestick?)
10) Where are critical price line levels (round numbers or psychological numbers)
11) ADD YOURS...
PLEASE ADD IN COMMENTS: What do you see on attached naked or price action only chart of AUDJPY- thanks!!!
Where and How could you have entered into a trade on this chart, with enter, stops and targets set up and make a profit?
Break & Retest Strategy (Should Be A Favorite)Break and Retest Strategy:
Bullish example on chart:
1) Quick price action move or continuation phase on chart
2) Price action protected the critical line, structure and future stop loss of 119.000, during exhaustion phase. Could use a fib ret 50%-61.8% for entry.
3) Showed a great two day Engulfing pattern on chart for entry for buy market trade at close of that candlestick. (I use harmi, engulfing and pin bar candle stick patterns to entry all trades, especially on this break and retest strategy)
4) Stop loss would have been at 119.00 (yes, that is 88 pips from entry)
5) Targets 1st target 88 pips from entry, 2nd target 176, 3rd target 264 and 4th target is 352.
Related to daily chart, adjust your risk management appropriately just like all trades you do- is at beginning of trade set stops, entry, targets.
Picking Out The Strongest 123 Forex SetupsHow To Pick Out The Strongest 123 Forex Setup: The Most Powerful Trading Setup In Forex!!!
1) The 1 needs to be at the extreme high or low of chart (on chart example a bearish 123 setup).
2) The 2 needs to be lower then 1 on chart and turn around to the 3
3) The 3, but 3 can not be higher then 1 on chart
4) From 3 to 4, you can (if aggressive entry) enter bearish trade at 50% to 61.8% area (see chart) or conservative entry at horizontal break of 2 on chart. Then enter the trade. This trade depending on your entry to trade would have been 1:1 to 1:2 risk reward setup.
5) This happened in between the high liquidity and volume areas between Tokyo end to London end, which is where most scalping or day trading should happen, when big banks and hedges are trading most of the Forex daily rollover of $6 trillion dollars. Just get a piece of pip pie, do not be greedy.