Don't Be Too Quick To Short The DollarYes, DXY closed with a strong weekly bearish engulfing candle, in fact, the first bearish candle close in 2 months. While this is a strong indicator of what's been a highly anticipated correction lower, if price action on the daily continues to trade higher aggressively, then we may see a short term rally before price sell's off.
Despite this uncertainty, I see plenty of opportunity early in the week across the board. Here's how I'm positioned after Monday's development:
DXY - LONG
EURUSD - SHORT
USDJPY - LONG
GBPJPY - SHORT
AUDUSD - NEUTRAL
Community ideas
Meta I Potential correction and more growthWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** Meta Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
What’s Flowing: AUDUSD ShortThe AUDUSD is demonstrating a bearish breakdown, aligning with the current downward momentum. The pair has recently breached key support levels, with selling pressure increasing in the highlighted zones.
Key Observations:
1. Price Action: The pair is trading below critical resistance areas, moving toward the lower bounds of the channel.
2. Bearish Momentum: Clear signs of sellers dominating, with the price rejecting upper levels and closing near session lows.
Strategy:
Traders looking to capitalize on this movement can monitor the following:
• Short Entries: Ideal near minor pullbacks into resistance zones around 0.6480–0.6520.
• Targets: Downside levels near 0.6440 and below, depending on momentum strength.
• Stops: Tight stops above the 0.6520 resistance for effective risk management.
Stay cautious of any reversals or macroeconomic events impacting the Australian Dollar. For more refined strategies, reach out for insights tailored to managing AUDUSD flows effectively.
Market Update: EU 10-Year Yield Under Pressure The 10-year yield has faced mounting pressure over the past month, and we’re now approaching critical support levels—notably, 2.00/2.01, the recent low.
🔍 Key Insights:
• The RSI has dipped to 16, suggesting that this zone may hold on the initial test.
• However, the broader pattern since 2023 is starting to resemble a potential topping formation.
⚠️ What to Watch For:
A weekly close below 2.00 could expose the market to significant downside risks:
➡️ Targets include:
• The 2024 low at 1.89
• The December 2022 low at 1.75
• Longer-term potential to slide toward the 200-week moving average, currently around 1.46
As the bond market approaches these pivotal levels, it’s critical for investors to stay vigilant and prepared for potential shifts in the macro landscape.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Mastering GBPJPY: Key Trading Zones Revealed for Optimal Entries
Greetings, traders! Welcome to this GBPJPY market analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities.
In this video, I start by analyzing the yearly down to the daily charts, highlighting key trading zones, and discussing the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries.
If you like the breakdown, boost the idea and follow to receive more ideas.
Trade safely
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-2: Tmp Bottom PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to move a bit higher after finding support in early trading.
The one BIG event over the past 5+ trading days is the SPY rallying above the Ultimate High level - breaking into a confirmed Bullish price trend.
This is part of what I'm trying to teach you: the patterns, techniques, thinking, and logic behind my decisions are based on mechanical price structures/processes. Once you understand the structures and price patterns, it is simple to try to understand.
Fibonacci Price Theory teaches you to follow price as the ultimate indicator - measuring and marking ultimate, unique, and standout highs/lows as trigger points.
AnchorBar theory teaches us to watch for breakaway or breakdown bars as precise indications of price trend direction/momentum.
The Excess Phase Peak patterns represent a more nuanced price pattern that can assist us in determining the current "phase" of the markets and how we can expect prices to react to that phase.
If you understand these three concepts, I believe you, as a trader, can unlock any price action and determine what type of trend we are currently in for any symbol/interval and where your opportunity lies for potential trades.
I will continue to delve further into trading and teaching techniques to reinforce these techniques in the future.
Stay cautious as the markets are still struggling to find a post-election trend.
The Anomaly Event is still likely, but the probability of such an event has fallen to about 30-40% overall.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Binance Coin (BNB): A Possible Liquidity Hunting Incoming!Binance Coin has been showing some signs of recovery and possible upward movement here but yet we are starting this month with some dominance from sellers. We have 2 possible scenarios here on the coin so now all we can do is wait out for them to be executed!
More in-depth info is in the video—enjoy!
Swallow Team
What’s Flowing: Gold Short (CONTRACTION?)Gold futures are displaying a bearish trend as margins compress alongside a price decline. This contraction suggests a short-term downside continuation, making it a crucial moment for traders to monitor levels for potential retracement or further drops.
Key Observations:
1. Price Action: Gold is trading near the lower boundaries of a consolidation zone, with resistance levels firmly capping upward moves.
2. Compression in Margins: As margins tighten, the market indicates decreasing volatility, creating a conducive environment for strategic short positions.
Hedge Opportunity:
For traders holding long Gold positions, hedging against further downside risk is now a practical solution. My Gold/Silver Inter-Market Spread Trading PAMM account offers a robust strategy to manage exposure and optimize returns through inter-market hedging techniques.
Feel free to reach out to learn more about how to diversify and protect your Gold investments with minimal risk.
Reach out for more information on the Gold/Silver Ratio Hedge!
Euro / U.S. DollarHello, dear traders!
In this video, I have conducted a daily analysis of the Euro and have outlined the structure of the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes. I have also identified some excellent entry points.
Thank you for strengthening me with your constructive feedback!
Fereydoon Bahrami
"A retail trader in the Wall Street trading center (Forex)."
What’s Flowing: AUDCHF BullishThe AUDCHF chart reflects a bullish sentiment in the market, highlighting potential upward momentum. Key observations include:
1. Price Breakout from Consolidation Zone: AUDCHF has recently emerged from a well-defined consolidation range, indicating increasing buyer pressure.
2. Support at Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The price has bounced from a critical retracement level, suggesting strong demand in this area.
3. Moving Averages Trending Upward: Moving average bands align with bullish momentum, further confirming upward pressure.
4. Volume Profile Analysis: Recent price action shows significant buying activity at lower levels, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
5. Target Zone Identified: The next resistance zone lies above, offering traders an opportunity to capture gains in the upward swing.
With bullish indicators aligning, AUDCHF presents a promising setup for traders eyeing long positions. Stay tuned for updates as the market unfolds!
When is a stock too high to buy? (Example: IHG)How do you know when you’ve missed the boat?
A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late!
Sometimes, you just have to let go, right?
Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example.
International Hotels Group (IHG)
Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 - that’s 5X in about 4 years. Not bad.
Can you really even think about buying shares at 10,000 that were 2,000 only 4 years ago. 🤔
We’re saying YES.. if you follow some guidelines.
Clearly this is not a value investment - this is a momentum trade.
To be buying IHG shares up here, one is basically arguing that the price at new highs indicates and buyers are in charge and the price is going to keep going up for the time being.
This helps define the trade risk very well.
If the trade is that IHG has broken out over the previous peak at ~8,800. We don’t want to be owning shares below this level - if they’re back below 8,800 the momentum has stalled and we need to be out.
To put it another way, we are not buying just under 10,000 and willing to hold the shares all the way back down to 2,000 again - no. We want to ride the momentum up - not down !
From here there’s a pretty good chance that momentum takes the price up to the 10,000 level. As a big round number, there is also a good chance that profit taking takes place here too.
That creates our buy zone between 8,800 and the current market price (9,750).
So what might a trading strategy look like to capture this situation?
The following is a way to have:
An intial risk of £1000 to test the waters
A total risk £3000 if/when the trade starts working
A 2X profit potential (with the opportunity to capture more)
Spread Betting Strategy: Target £6000+ Profit with £1000 Initial Risk
Entry Points and Stops
9000 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: 8600 GBX.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Risk: £1000.
9200 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: 8800 GBX.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Risk: £1000.
9400 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: Trailing 400 points.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Initial Risk: £1000.
Profit Targets
First Position (9000):
Gain: 1000 points.
Profit: £2500.
Second Position (9200):
Gain: 800 points.
Profit: £2000.
Third Position (9400):
Trailing Stop Profit Example:
10,400 GBX: Profit = £2500.
11,000 GBX: Profit = £4000 or more.
Summary
Total Risk: £3000.
Fixed Profit (First Two Positions): £4500.
Potential Profit (Third Position): Variable, based on trailing stop.
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2:1 or higher, depending on trend continuation.
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
About to breakthrough!FX:HKG33
From previous post - D chart shown that the MACD SIgnal lines are both downtrend and breakthrough the zero line. Forming a short term bearish mode.
The Index corrected down to 18956 (last week low).
As you can see from the snapshot from W chart that week of 11Nov,
week of 18Nov: -246.64 (-1.27%)
week of 25Nov: +395.16 (+2.06%)
This week - 2 Dec : as of now -109.64 (-0.56%) if the Index able to hold at the support level of 19330 and break 19785, the Index then considers reversal.
the MACD Signal lines.
Trade Plan -
Day Trade : 19000-19700 (Long at support and short at resistance dependings on your tf
Swing Trade : 2 days - 3wks : Accumulate at 19000-19150 Discount level, Take partial profit at 19300, 19700.
Longterm Trade : The Index is now retracing. May accumulate & hold at 19340 (if you have been monitoring accumulating starting 16900.
Total Market Cap 2 and Total 3 + USDT.D Market WarningsIn this video, I briefly review the USDT.T bear market signals I covered in a recent video below.
But also noticing that Total 2, Total 3 and also the OTHERS are either hitting or very close to hitting their all time highs from the prior market cycle in 2021, which was the start of the Bear.
I do think we see more profit taking Monday afternoon into Tuesday through Thursday which is projected Dec 5th market cycle low from a cycles perspective.
Notice how the alts have been flying the last few days, and this weekend -- setting us up for major profit taking tomorrow and to fool all the new crypt tourists into buying the highs.
Protection capital here IMO and wait to buy back lower.
Let me know your thoughts, and please like the video if you found value.
- Brett
PS> My other Bear Market indicator fired today when I went out for Italian at my favorite local restuarant (sneaking in right at closing time as usual b/c I work 14 hour days)... and the bus-boy saw my Bitcoin hat -- and starting giving me crypto tips!
This is like the 'Taxi Cab' indicator of 1999, when the cabbie started giving me stock recommendations ... I had a feeling the top was in!