Bitcoin is facing a decisive test at the long-term ascending trend line. This line, connecting previous major highs, represents the last significant technical resistance on its current path.
Breakout Potential: A successful breach above the red line, confirmed by strong volume, would signal robust bullish momentum and potentially clear the way for further...
If this channel breaks down, BTC could drop to as low as the 58k levels. If not, growth would continue, and the chances of returning to these levels anytime soon would be reduced.
Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a fascinating pattern:
The Halving Influence: A prolonged upward trend tends to emerge around the time of Bitcoin's halving events.
The Bubble Formation: This upward trend has consistently evolved into a bubble, breaking upwards.
The Breakout Point: Notably, the breakout typically occurs around the previous all-time high...
BTCUSD is now above:
the recent downwards channel,
the 200 WMA (strong support),
the 25000 longtime support.
It is still below the long-term trend line that started from 2013, which is now slightly above the 30000 level, but I'm not sure that this trend still holds power. If it's not a fakeout, we should see a rise to at least the 30k level in the following days.
Now we are testing MA 200. I think it's one of most important lines in BTC history. When BTC broke down MA 200 in March 2014 we recovered to the same price level only in 2016. The same with drop under MA 200 in Feb 2018. If price would go above 47000 with volume - we would be safe. If BTC would drop significantly under current levels - probably BTC will need...
We are very close to the top of the 10 years BTC parabolic channel which was never broken. The upper line now stands at ~80000 USD/BTC. If we get to it later - it would be higher, but not significantly. If we would break the top - there would be completely new reality. But this channel stood COVID panic in march 2020. I think it will stand once again.
Some famous traders such as MasterLuc () and MagicPoopCannon () mentioned a long time ago that bitcoin stays in parabolic SQRT-stype adoption trend channel from the beginning and never broke out of it either side.
When BTC got to 3K low in December 2018, it bounced up from 200 week MA, but never touched the bottom of the channel, the thing, that I was worried...
So we have very strong break out over MA200.
When we had similar breakout in october 2015 - we rose from 250$ to 20000$.
When we had strong breakout in march 2019 - we rose from 4500$ to 13000$.
But we have some resistances to go:
9500$ - border of triangle on linear scale
10000$ - border of triangle on log scale and psychological mark
10500$ - last LH
Let's...
First one is MA200 at ~8000 USD. In 2018 when we dropped below it, we stayed there for about a year.
Next one is the border of triangle at about 9500 USD. Only if we break this up, I would assume that we are safe.
We are not out of crisis yet, and I think this is just a beginning. There is terrifying correlation between stock indexes and BTC. There are some...
If you draw the current falling wedge since 2019 high on log chart - it would have more touch points than on regular chart. And blue ascending would not come from nowhere, it actually first acted as support in April 2013, 6.5 years ago!
We are still inside falling wedge - bullish.
We didn't break down the longterm ascending trendline - bullish.
If we break up...
Currently we are:
- at the bottom of the wedge
- at the support of the uptrend line starting February 2019
- we had no significant upward moves for about a month
Now it's time
I would become very bearish if BTC pierces down 4K level and very bullish if BTC goes above 10K. For now.. downtrend is more possible, but then BTC can go both directions.
We are about to break the bottom of log channel that started in 2011 and supported BTC in 2018, and if we do so... that's not a good sign. There is some hope for BTC if it would bounce right now.
I don't really interested in small fluctuations of btc price, day trading or scalping. I'm interested in fact are there global perspectives on this cryptocurrency and in what price level is going to be in the future.
I hear from many traders, that there would be mass adoption soon, but actually situation has not changed much after the fall of MtGox. Bitcoin set...
We bounced off the logarythmic trendline that is going since the year 2011 for two times recently. It's high chance that now we will go down to the next to the bottom of the current channel once again before bitcoin will go up. But if the bottom if the channel would hold and there would be bounce off the 6k mark - it would be a good sign.
So BTC didn't fall too far under 6000, and the chances are high now that it wouldn't.
We can see now, there is much more inclined channel, than even PentarhUdi showed. And we are climbing up at the very bottom of it.
All we need is to stay in this channel and don't fall under 7000. Several months in 7000-10000 range - and then we can go up to a new highs.
But...
We have fallen from descending triangle , but now we locked in the falling wedge formed by strong downtrend line since all time high. We can bounce from it once more at ~5500 level and break the falling wedge up. And we are holding strong even now at 5850 level.
