Stairs up, elevator down for USD ZAR.The rand has surpassed my expectations recently and reminded me that the USDZAR pair tends to take the stairs up, and the elevator down. The risk-on swing last week allowed the rand to keep the pair below the 200-day MA resistance rate of 18.80 which saw the pair fall back onto the psychological rate of 18.50. The downside break out of the blue wedge thus invalidates my previous expectation for the pair to re-test level above 19.40. The next support rate for the pair is the 38.2% fibo retracement rate of 18.38 and a break below this level will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the yearly low of 18.24. Technically the 50-day MA is set to cross below the 200-day MA and the RSI has room to move lower before hitting oversold zones which is rand positive.
It's difficult to call the ZAR at the moment. A positive and peaceful local election result will see foreign investors return to the SA bond market which is rand positive coupled with a sustained dovish stance from the Fed. On the flip side, a sustained rise in the US 10-year treasury yields and the DXY could pull the pair higher back towards 19.00. The only missing piece is precious metal prices. The rand behaves like a commodity currency and another leg higher in precious metal prices will allow for a sustained rand rally towards 17.40. For now, I have a relatively neutral stance for the pair, but I am leaning towards a test of 17.40 over a test of 19.40 at the moment given last week’s developments.
The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last week. US bond yields and the dollar tumbled off the back of the increased bets for rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50% but the real dovish sentiment started flying when the Fed announced that they will slow their balance sheet taper to $25 billion, down from $60 billion, per month. That is a whopping $35 billion that will technically be injected into the market. The dovish FOMC meeting was followed by a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing PMI print along with a feeble non-farm payrolls print of 175 thousand in April, down from 315 thousand in March. These data prints along with the recent weak US GDP results is increasing the odds for a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later as the Fed may be forced to stimulate the economy before they reach their lauded 2% inflation target. On top of all this, last week US regulators announced the first US bank failure of the year with Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank being forced to close its doors. All of this is rand positive...
