Wishing everyone here good luckOn to the next chapter of investments. Farewell NVDA, was a good ride! This is one of my favorite stocks hate to see you go.
Lets go 2015 and 2022 gang. keep it up! dont stop!
NVD trade ideas
A Dilemma: Do Stock prices moves Options or Vice Versa???This interesting question touches on the complex relationship between stock prices and option prices. Let's break down this dilemma:
1. The theoretical relationship:
In theory, stock prices drive option prices. Options are derivatives, meaning their value is derived from the underlying asset (in this case, the stock). The Black-Scholes model and other option pricing models use the stock price as an input to calculate option values.
2. The practical reality:
In practice, the relationship can become more complex, especially in the short term. There are scenarios where options trading can influence stock prices, creating a feedback loop.
3. How options can influence stocks:
- Delta hedging: Market makers who sell options often hedge their positions by buying or selling the underlying stock. This can create buying or selling pressure on the stock.
- Large option positions: Significant option volumes can signal bullish or bearish sentiment, potentially influencing trader behavior in the stock market.
- Pinning: As expiration approaches, there can be forces that "pin" a stock to a particular option strike price due to hedging activities.
4. The max pain theory:
This theory suggests that option trading can influence stock prices, particularly near expiration, pulling the stock price toward the maximum pain point.
5. Short-term vs. long-term effects:
While options can influence stock prices in the short term, fundamental factors (like earnings, economic conditions, etc.) tend to dominate in the longer term.
6. Market efficiency considerations:
In highly liquid markets, any predictable influence of options on stocks should, in theory, be quickly arbitraged away. However, markets aren't always perfectly efficient.
7. Regulatory perspective:
Regulators are aware of potential market manipulation through options and monitor for such activities.
In conclusion, while the primary relationship is stock prices influencing option prices, there can be feedback effects where options trading influences stock prices, especially in the short term. This creates a complex, interconnected system that traders and analysts must navigate carefully.
Max Pain theory in options trading is an interesting concept. Here's a concise overview:
Max Pain refers to the strike price where option buyers (collectively) would experience the maximum financial pain, or loss, at expiration. Conversely, it's the price at which option sellers would profit the most.
Key points:
1. It's based on the idea that option sellers (often market makers) try to manipulate the underlying asset's price toward maximum pain.
2. Calculated by determining the price at which the value of all outstanding options would be minimized.
3. Used by some traders to predict where a stock's price might gravitate as expiration approaches.
Max Pain theory is controversial. While some traders swear by it, others are skeptical of its predictive power. It's important to note that many factors influence stock prices, and Max Pain is just one potential consideration.
NVDA:
Total open interest: 28.4 million contract
while SPX, SPY, QQQ, IWm, and TSLA's open interest is: 21,20.5,13.5,6.9 million respectively.
Total open interest is an important metric in options and futures trading. Here's a concise overview:
1. Definition:
Total open interest refers to the total number of outstanding contracts (options or futures) that have not been settled or closed.
2. Calculation:
It's the sum of all open positions across all strike prices and expiration dates for a particular underlying asset.
3. Significance:
- Market activity indicator: Higher open interest generally indicates more active and liquid markets.
- Trend confirmation: Increasing open interest can confirm the strength of a price trend.
4. Interpretation:
- Rising open interest + rising prices: Often indicates a bullish trend.
- Rising open interest + falling prices: Often indicates a bearish trend.
- Falling open interest: May suggest a weakening of the current trend.
5. Contrasts with volume:
- Volume measures the number of contracts traded in a given period.
- Open interest represents the number of active contracts at a point in time.
6. Uses:
- Assessing market sentiment
- Gauging the strength of price movements
- Identifying potential support/resistance levels
7. Limitations:
- Doesn't indicate the direction of trades (long vs. short)
- Can be misleading if not considered alongside other factors
Nvidia (NVDA): A Beacon in the Tech Sea - Remains a Strong BuyNvidia (NVDA): A Beacon in the Tech Sea
Nvidia, a titan in the semiconductor industry, has consistently demonstrated its ability to navigate the complex landscape of technology. While the stock has experienced recent fluctuations, its underlying fundamentals remain strong, making it a compelling investment opportunity.
A Strong Financial Foundation
Nvidia's financial performance has been nothing short of exceptional. The company's revenue surged by 122.40% year-over-year, far surpassing market expectations. Additionally, its earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by a comfortable margin, underscoring its robust financial health.
Market Leadership and Future Potential
Nvidia's position as a market leader in the semiconductor industry is undeniable. With a massive market capitalization of $3.09 trillion, the company has a significant presence in critical segments such as data centers and artificial intelligence. Its ongoing commitment to innovation ensures that it remains at the forefront of technological advancements, driving future growth.
Navigating Short-Term Challenges
While the stock has experienced a recent decline, it's important to view this as a potential short-term market correction. Despite a slight decrease in institutional holdings, major investors like The Vanguard Group have increased their positions, indicating continued confidence in Nvidia's long-term prospects.
Why Nvidia Remains a Strong Buy
Innovation and Growth: Nvidia's relentless pursuit of innovation in AI and computing positions it for sustained growth.
Financial Health: A strong balance sheet provides a solid foundation for future success.
Market Leadership: Nvidia's dominant position in key segments gives it a competitive advantage.
Path to Recovery
As market sentiment improves and Nvidia continues to deliver impressive financial results, the stock is well-positioned for a rebound. Positive analyst ratings and target prices further reinforce this outlook.
In conclusion, while short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, Nvidia's strong fundamentals, market leadership, and commitment to innovation make it a compelling investment choice. Investors seeking exposure to the technology sector may find Nvidia to be a valuable addition to their portfolios.
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Risk Disclaimer!
The article information and the data is for general information use only, not advice!
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Risk Warning Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are comfortable with the potential for losses. Risk Disclaimer! General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss!
NVDA Nvidia has opened on a gap and should go lowerAfter earnings and a gap down is supportive of decreasing prices for Nvidia
Nvidia: DownhillNVDA has completed the green wave (X) and started descending toward our blue Target Zone between $91.30 and $76.02, which should mark the joint low of waves (Z) in green and A in beige. From this range, the beige five-wave downward move should continue, layawaying along the boundaries of our pink triangular trend channel to finish the large wave (IV) in blue. This final overarching low should take the form of a truncation, i.e., a shortened correction, and initiate a new uptrend above $137.32. However, it is 30% likely that the blue wave alt.(IV) has already concluded, which would result in a direct breakout above the $137.32 mark.
Nvidia Fails to Wow Traders. What to Make of Its Earnings ReportNvidia stock (ticker: NVDA ) is up nearly 3,000% in the past five years. Back then, in 2019, no one really cared about its earnings report as it was known mainly for its niche products targeting geeks, gamers and crypto miners. Now, when Nvidia reports, the world listens.
Everyone and their moms were glued to the screen Wednesday afternoon when the company released its quarterly earnings report. The numbers were good — triple-digit growth was there and guidance was calling for even more growth.
Yet investors proceeded to dump the stock. Big time . Shares lost as much as 10% of their valuation in after-hours trading before Nvidia fans scooped up some of those bruised gems at a discount.
Nvidia is worth $3 trillion (depending on the day) — that’s about 6% of the massive $50 trillion valuation of the S&P 500. The lofty price tag is largely due to Nvidia leading the AI boom with its chips being the hottest commodity in the tech world. As a result, Nvidia has turned into a top pick among the thousands of stocks available out there.
That gives you an idea of this stock’s important role. Markets are placing so much significance on Nvidia’s earnings update that you might as well put it on par with the jobs report or a Fed event.
Good but Not Absolutely Mind-Boggling Amazing
Analysts: We expect revenue growth of 115%.
Nvidia: Here’s 122%.
Analysts: Nooo, why not a bigger beat? Disappointed!
Nvidia posted another blockbuster quarter with $30 billion in revenue, up 122%, surpassing Wall Street’s estimates of $28.7 billion. Earnings per share landed at 68 cents a pop, up 152%, eclipsing consensus views of 65 cents. Thanks to the wide profit margins, Nvidia pocketed some $16.95 billion in net profit.
It did say, however, that gross profit margins narrowed quarter on quarter. For the three months to July 28, Nvidia generated an adjusted gross margin of 75.7%, down from 78.9% the previous quarter. Full-year gross margins are projected to sit above 75% while total revenue is expected to hit $120 billion.
With Great Returns Comes Great Responsibility
Here’s a harsh truth: the bigger you become, the higher the expectations for more breakneck growth. Nvidia’s revenue blasted by a supercharged 265% in the previous quarter. And if 122% can’t keep shares above the flatline, then Nvidia’s rapid expansion has turned against it. And by the looks of it, that growth is going to be increasingly challenged. Large-cap rivals are threatening to chip away (pun intended) at Nvidia’s dominance, potentially taking from its market share, diminishing the profit margins and pulling some of its Big Tech clientele.
For the October quarter, Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang projects revenue of $32.5 billion, which exceeds the average consensus of $31.7 billion. But, then again, it doesn’t exceed it by a lot — and that didn’t sit well with the overly optimistic investors out there.
Not everything was above market expectations. Nvidia’s next-generation AI chip — Blackwell — still hasn’t started shipping and that unnerves some stock holders. Huang tried to assuage investor fears during the earnings call, saying that despite some design-related delays , Blackwell will ramp up production as expected and will bring in “several billion dollars” still this year. In a move to instil confidence and maybe patch things up, Nvidia authorized a juicy $50 billion stock buyback, which is a mere 2% of its market cap.
What are you doing with Nvidia’s shares? Are you a long-term holder or looking for the right entry? Maybe buying this dip? Let us know in the comment section!
NVDA: Sell idea: Pullback on vwapOn NVDA we would have a hight probability to have a downtrend because as you can see on the chart we have a pullback on the vwap indicator and also if we have the breakout with force the support line.
Nvidia still working on Minor B retracementWith earnings out and traders not getting the normal reward of new 52 week highs, we continue to subdivide lower in a primary circle wave 4 that will more than likely not bottom until next year, possibly longer. A primary wave 4 will consist of an intermediate ABC, and each intermediate label will consist of a minor ABC. We're still working on minor B...therefore, it's important that followers of my work be informed we've only just begun the primary wave 4 pattern.
In the short term, we will be in this general area for a while as it appears now we're working on a flat for Intermediate (A).
NVDA UP WE GO FROM HEREWyckoff accumulation getting confirmed with this support,
After spring was done we are getting ST or a retest on the lower line-> from here we should see a new HOD in NVDA.
In addition, BuyBack news is out so i don't see why we wouldn't be making HOD very soon
Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Fall Despite Strong EarningsNvidia (NVDA) Shares Fall Despite Strong Earnings
Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session, Nvidia released its second-quarter earnings report:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $0.67, expected = $0.647;
→ Revenue: $30.04 billion, expected = $28.737 billion;
→ The company also announced a $50 billion share buyback.
However, despite the strong results, Nvidia’s share price declined. While the closing price yesterday was above $125, in pre-market trading today, Nvidia's shares are down below $118.
The more than 6% drop may be due to:
→ The company’s future outlook not meeting investor expectations;
→ Waning bullish sentiment around AI adoption.
On 12 August, during a technical analysis of NVDA’s price chart, we noted:
→ The price was forming an upward channel (indicated in blue);
→ The $100 level was acting as support.
Assuming the bearish momentum from the earnings reaction continues, Nvidia’s shares may open trading today around $115, close to the lower boundary of the current upward channel.
New data provides crucial insights for further predictions:
→ After retreating from the $130 resistance level, the price is likely to form a broad bearish gap around the $120 level, which could act as a future resistance zone.
→ The median line of the blue channel may then act as resistance, increasing the likelihood of a bearish breakout below the channel’s lower boundary.
Meanwhile, analysts remain optimistic. According to a Tipranks survey, 33 out of 36 analysts recommend buying NVDA stock. While the average price target is $150 over the next 12 months, it’s possible that these estimates could be revised downward if bearish sentiment intensifies.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVDA TA for 8/29/2024NVIDIA (NVDA) saw a significant drop in its stock price despite reporting strong earnings. The company posted impressive numbers with $30.04 billion in revenue, more than doubling from the previous year, and a net income of $16.6 billion. However, the stock dropped by over 5% in extended trading for a couple of key reasons:
Slower Growth Rate: Despite the strong earnings, the rate of growth has begun to slow down. The company's guidance for Q3 revenue is $32.5 billion, which, while still significant, indicates a deceleration compared to previous quarters. Investors had been accustomed to rapid growth due to AI-related demand, and the slower pace raised concerns.
High Expectations: NVIDIA has been a top-performing stock, particularly in the AI space, and expectations were exceedingly high. Even though the company exceeded its own guidance, the market was likely hoping for even more, given the stock's substantial run-up over the past year.
Technical Analysis for NVDA Trading Tomorrow
Support Levels: The immediate support level lies around $116.92, with a further significant support level at $115.01. If these levels hold, they could serve as good entry points for a long position.
Resistance Levels: Resistance is seen around $123.12 and $123.95, which correspond to previous price consolidation zones. Breaking above these levels could indicate a reversal and a potential bullish trend.
Price Action: Given the sharp decline, the price may test the $115-$116 support zone. If it holds, a bounce back toward $123 could occur. However, if it breaks below $115, further downside to around $110 or even lower could be seen.
Entry/Exit:
Long Entry: Consider entering around $116 with a stop loss just below $115, targeting an exit near $123.
Short Entry: If the price breaks below $115, consider shorting with a target near $110, setting a stop loss around $118.
Directional Prediction
Given the current sentiment and technical setup, there's a likelihood of further downside if the broader market also remains weak. However, a bounce is possible if buyers step in at the support levels mentioned. Watch for volume and price action near the support zones to gauge the market's direction.
NVIDIA Potential Downtrend Line Breakout At $130.13 29.08.2024Apply risk management
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Elliott Wave Intraday on NVDA Looking for PullbackShort Term Elliott Wave in NASDAQ:NVDA suggests that pullback to 90.7 ended wave IV. The stock has turned higher in wave V with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave IV, wave (1) ended at 109.25 and wave (2) pullback ended at 97.15. The stock has resumed higher as a nest. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 108.3 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 97.52. Up from there, wave ((i)) ended at 109 and wave ((ii)) ended at 101. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 125, pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 121.15, and final wave ((v)) ended at 130 which completed wave 3. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 125.8 and final wave 5 ended at 131 which completed wave (3).
Stock then pullback in wave (4) towards 123.1 and made another leg higher in wave (5) towards 131.26. This completed wave ((1)) in higher degree. Wave ((2)) pullback is now in progress to correct cycle from 8.5.2024 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher again. Down from wave ((1)), wave A ended at 124.37 and wave B ended at 129.18. Expect wave C of (W) to end soon, then it should rally in wave (X) before turning lower again in wave (Y) of ((2)). As far as pivot at 90.7 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
$NVDA - Can the trendline hold?NASDAQ:NVDA is likely to check back the trendline tomorrow. However, if the trendline fails to hold, it could fall to the $101 to $95 area. I'd be interested in loading up if it reaches $95 or below. 👀
NVDA Earnings Results I believe in the next 24 hours we will see a $50 billion stock buyback to $137+ and then a major correction immediately after. I think the selling pressure will be a falling knife. Leading us back into the $100-$70 range. Shaking out retail investors. This is just a prediction. Good luck!!
NVIDIA - Will The Tech Giant Surprise Again?Today is the day: Perhaps the most important company in the world presents its quarterly figures - NVIDIA! In an already volatile market environment, erratic movements are guaranteed. Can NVIDIA meet or even exceed the high expectations? More importantly, how will the share react?
Open divergences in the DMI (not shown, as M5) provide us with a clue: This shows a bearish divergence that has not yet been worked off and would be resolved as soon as the NVIDIA share price reaches the level of around USD 118.70.
We therefore expect short-term price losses. Although we are taking a bearish stance, it is quite possible that the share price will only reach this level very shortly after the publication of the quarterly figures.
Due to the expected high volatility, we refrain from showing a specific setup with SL and TP.
*Today = our location is in MEST
$NVDA Bull Flag Pattern A bull flag bullish pattern appears to be forming, suggesting potential upside momentum. The key question is whether Nvidia will break out following tomorrow's earnings report. If the results exceed expectations, it could serve as the catalyst needed to propel the stock higher, confirming the bull flag and potentially triggering a strong upward move. Traders will be closely watching for a decisive break above recent resistance levels, which could set the stage for further gains. #SPX500 AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NVDA #Nvidia #ES_F #NQ_F
Option Chain Before Earnings - $NVDA huge CALL skewThis week, keep an eye on NASDAQ:NVDA , which will release its quarterly earnings on Wednesday.
Here are this week’s earnings releases implemented by the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator for Tradingview:
08/28 Wednesday after market close: NVDA , CRWD , CRM
08/29 Thursday after market close: MRVL
The Options Overlay indicates that NVDA's call skew is above 55% at 54DTE, meaning that CALL options are priced 55% higher than PUT options for the binary expected move distance .
This suggests that the market is pricing in a strong upward move.
The yellow curve represents the binary expected move, while the blue curve shows the 16-delta OTM options. The green rectangle highlights the area where you can potentially profit from the butterfly trade if the earnings report meets bullish market expectations.
Upward price levels:
7/8 - 138
8/8 - 150
Downward price levels:
6/8 - 125
5/8 - 112
If you agree with the market’s bullish sentiment, one of the best R:R trades might be a directional NVDA call butterfly. You can buy it for $109 with the nearest Friday expiration, with a maximum (theoretical) profit of nearly $900. It’s worth executing this trade before the earnings announcement. Note that the green dashed line is theoretical; while it's not a traditional trendline according to classic TA, the long-term upward trend is still quite clear
Expiry: Aug 30
Legs: 1x140C -2x150C + 1x160C
Net debit: ~$100
Max profit: $890
NVIDIA still has room to grow?Will we breakout of this short-term consolidation and speculate growth in the stock towards $140.00 price range?
$NVDA Expected move is between 113 - 143Alright, y'all ready for NVDA? This is the expected move, as written in options - and all the levels you need to know in and around it!!
I did just post the video walkthrough as well but all the levels are here. GL y'all!!
NVDA: Here we go...Technical's not looking ok. If earning's come in underwhelming, NVDA price will be forming a H&S pattern. It's possible to push higher of course as long as earning are phenomenal (a difficult task at market highs).
What do you all think?
Nvidia Earnings To Push Markets? Understanding Risk On/OffVarious news reports mention Nvidia earnings as important as US Jobs data.
This is because of the enormous market cap of Nvidia and the fact it is continuing to rise within an easing fed (softer landing prospects).
It has become somewhat of an indicator for the direction of the US economy.
It is a good idea to understand potential Risk On/Off effects.
If we see continued growth and confidence via Nvidia earnings it is likely to translate to further Equity rises and safe haven outflows, potential further up moves in oil.
Any kind of miss may provide a newer risk off effect and investments moving away from risk and back into safe havens / fixed income.
Would not suggest taking any large sizes at all or gambling on results.
