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XAGUSD trade ideas

Silver Anatomy: Elliot Wave Insights PT IIGreetings, Everyone In part two of our silver update, I will dive into the structures of Elliott Wave Theory, focusing on Impulse Waves and Corrective Waves. Let’s break down these components for a deeper understanding. Understanding the Types of Waves Impulse Waves (1-3-5) Impulse waves are powerful, directional moves characterized by strong momentum. These waves typically occur in the direction of the main trend, with Wave 3 often being the most dominant. Corrective Waves (2-4) Corrective waves are pauses or pullbacks in the trend, often seen as sideways price action. They take forms such as: • Flat Patterns • Triangles • Zigzags (a sharp, back-and-forth movement). Using RSI to Analyze Waves The RSI provides valuable insight into wave structures: • Vertical lines mark the RSI peaks corresponding to major impulse waves. • Colored boxes on the RSI panel highlight key areas to watch. Key Impulse Wave Rules • Wave 1: Marks the beginning of the trend reversal, confirmed by the RSI breaking above the zero line and the histogram turning green. • Wave 3: Typically the strongest and longest wave in the sequence. Key Corrective Wave Rules • Wave 2: Does not retrace 100% of Wave 1. In this case, note how the RSI dips below the previous impulse level. An expanded flat pattern with a large B-wave exceeding the prior impulse is also evident. • Wave 4: Should not close below the level of Wave 1. Rule of Alternation • If Wave 2 is simple (small), then Wave 4 will likely be complex (large), and vice versa. Support and Resistance Dynamics Observe the green boxes in the price chart marking major pivot points, which often signal the end of corrective waves. These pivots align with critical support and resistance levels, frequently igniting substantial rallies thereafter. Analyzing Bias & Executing Trading Probability In my enthusiasm, I anticipated a significant breakout (bias) at the triangle peak of Wave 5, as outlined in my second silver trading post. I had drawn a triangle breakout expecting an upward move. While my bias led me to the wrong conclusion, my analysis itself wasn’t incorrect—the triangle did break out, but it moved to the downside instead against by bias. As previously mentioned, when a pattern fails, it often leads to dramatic price action in the opposite direction. For those who stayed objective and followed the chart rather than their bias, this presented a prime opportunity. The downside breakout retraced the entire impulse cycle in a remarkably short period of time, showcasing the power of trading without assumptions. It leads to question how can we stay objective while in these trades? The answer I found is to always be referencing key manual & guides. Fibonacci Applications for Traders by Robert Fischer provides a valuable solution to the dilemma I encountered (not sponsored or paid, by the way). In one section, Fischer mentions that “following the Elliott wave concept will lead you to not buy in an uptrend at the end of Wave 3.” To elaborated more on this idea — it is best to avoid buying wave 4s because Wave 5 is sometimes truncated or fails to materialize altogether, leading to a price reversal. This insight answers many questions about why wave 5 is so difficult to trade. Will it extend, will it be shorter? Will it be a .618 measurement of wave 1, 1 exact measurement of wave 1, will it extend to 1.618, or will it fail? One key rule he emphasizes is that, in an Elliott Wave cycle, only three waves may exist under certain conditions—challenging the assumption of a full five-wave sequence. Trading Strategy Improvements 1. Enter at Wave 2 Retracement Levels • Focus on taking a large position at Wave 2 retracement levels, but only after confirmation of a reversal. (Human tendency): We often experience FOMO when prices are high. However, history shows that chasing during high-FOMO moments usually signals a peak. Patience pays off at retracement levels. 2. Pyramid Positions During Wave 3 • Gradually scale aggressively into your position as Wave 3 begins moving with strong momentum. This allows you to capitalize on the high-octane movement of the impulse wave by adding to a winning trade. 3. Exit Around Wave 3.3 or 3.5 • Scale out of your position during the middle or later part of Wave 3. Exiting while the momentum remains strong ensures you lock in gains before the trend begins to fade. Conclusion By combining Elliott Wave Theory with RSI analysis, we gain clearer insight into market dynamics, helping us anticipate potential turning points with greater confidence.
FX:XAGUSDEducation
by coilemard
2
The Anatomy of a Downtrend: A case study of silver XAGUSDTopic 1: Downtrend analysis Introduction: This post serves two purposes: to educate readers and to act as a personal reference tool for future analysis. We’ll be reviewing recent price action in Silver (XAGUSD) , offering valuable insights that apply not just to commodities but also to equities. This sequence of events, while varying in scale, repeats itself across all time frames—daily, monthly, yearly. As a rule, the higher the time frame, the greater the potential returns. Rant We don’t need a million strategies. We don’t need overpriced guru courses claiming to deliver “10,000% gainers” (cue eye roll). What we need is a solid understanding of market behavior and the tools to make informed decisions. Preface Due to charting limitations, I’ve compressed the information here. Additional research may be necessary for a full understanding. This analysis incorporates: • Classical Chart Patterns (Part 1) • Elliott Wave Theory (Part 2) • Support & Resistance Levels (Blended) Getting Started: Understanding Trend Reversal Silver Price Peak Notice the rejection at $34.86 red circle on October 24. Silver spiralled lower, first to $33.08, briefly rebounded to $34.58, but lost momentum and rolled over again big purple circle. Reversal Peak Draw a trendline from $34.5 down to $30.615, connecting as many wicks as possible. Pay attention to the price swings during this dramatic decline. Downtrend Sequence Silver followed this classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows: 1. Swing Low 2. Lower High 3. Lower Low 4. Lower High 5. Lower Low Tip: Identifying Swing Extremes Use your drawing tool to circle ⭕️ or draw a square ⬛️the major swing points—areas where price reacted most sharply or moved the furthest before reversing. These are key reference points for understanding market structure. Potential Reversal Price broke out of its down trend and subsequently broke over its (lowest high) last purple swing point. At this point price formed a new high green circle 🟢 however a (higher lower) has not yet been confirmed on the higher time frame. In the next post, I’ll dive into the lower time frames, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory and key observations since the trendline break. If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments—thank you!
FX:XAGUSDEducation
by coilemard
4
Silver Trade IdeaSilver pared most of its gains on easing Geo political tension. It hit a low of $29.98 and currently trading around $30.33. The AI chip market is expected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.16% from 2024 to 2033, increasing the demand for silver used in microchips and electronics. Total silver demand could reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, with industrial use, especially in the AI sector, contributing significantly. The push for green energy will also boost silver demand as it is vital for solar panels and renewable energy technologies. Additionally, the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase silver use since each EV contains about 25 grams of silver. Overall, silver prices are likely to rise above $30 per ounce due to demand outpacing supply and a projected shortfall in production. The minutes suggest that more rate cuts may happen, with another possible cut in December. While inflation is easing, it is still above the Fed's 2% target, and employment gains have slowed, though unemployment remains low. Current Market Indicators The gold-silver ratio is currently at 86.54, showing that gold has outperformed gold recently. A ratio above 80 suggests silver might become a more attractive investment compared to gold. Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch For trading, the major level to monitor is $30. Silver is below key moving averages, with near-term support at $30. If it falls below this, it could target $29.60/$28.47. On the upside, immediate resistance is at $30.80; breaking this could lead to targets of $31.25/$31.75,$32.20, $32.75, $33, $33.60, $34, $34.50, and even $34.73. Trading Strategy: Opportunities in the Current Market It may be a good strategy to buy on dips around $29.60, with a stop-loss at $28.47 and a target price of $31.75.
PEPPERSTONE:XAGUSDLong
by adiechiii
Silver Trade IdeaSilver pared most of its gains on easing Geo political tension. It hit a low of $29.98 and currently trading around $30.33. The AI chip market is expected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.16% from 2024 to 2033, increasing the demand for silver used in microchips and electronics. Total silver demand could reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, with industrial use, especially in the AI sector, contributing significantly. The push for green energy will also boost silver demand as it is vital for solar panels and renewable energy technologies. Additionally, the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase silver use since each EV contains about 25 grams of silver. Overall, silver prices are likely to rise above $30 per ounce due to demand outpacing supply and a projected shortfall in production. The minutes suggest that more rate cuts may happen, with another possible cut in December. While inflation is easing, it is still above the Fed's 2% target, and employment gains have slowed, though unemployment remains low. Current Market Indicators The gold-silver ratio is currently at 86.54, showing that gold has outperformed gold recently. A ratio above 80 suggests silver might become a more attractive investment compared to gold. Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch For trading, the major level to monitor is $30. Silver is below key moving averages, with near-term support at $30. If it falls below this, it could target $29.60/$28.47. On the upside, immediate resistance is at $30.80; breaking this could lead to targets of $31.25/$31.75,$32.20, $32.75, $33, $33.60, $34, $34.50, and even $34.73. Trading Strategy: Opportunities in the Current Market It may be a good strategy to buy on dips around $29.60, with a stop-loss at $28.47 and a target price of $31.75.
PEPPERSTONE:XAGUSDLong
by adiechiii
Bearish drop?The Silver (XAG/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support. Pivot: 30.80 1st Support: 29.68 1st Resistance: 31.52 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAGUSDShort
by ICmarkets
XAGUSD, Bullish Momentum again . From the Low of Aug to High of Oct Silver gave a good impulsive move , then a A-B-C correction , Shorter TF below Daily the C wave was an extended C and did the Depth of Correction( Correction up to 4th of one lesser degree). Now looks like a new impulse to start 1&2 done with 78% retracement where 2 is a sharp correction . I have placed a entry 30.29 and got it SL is 30.22 Target 1 is 31.52 and final target may be 32.99. This is not a investment advice but sharing it for my own learning and education purpose only .
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by pushpc6
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?XAG/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 30.75 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 31.55 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Take profit: 29.667 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAGUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
SILVER (XAGUSD): Downtrend Emerges from ResistanceThe price of SILVER (XAGUSD) is showing bearish momentum after testing key resistance levels marked by both horizontal and vertical trend lines. Initially, the pair consolidated within a range but experienced a sharp decline upon testing a descending trend line. This movement breached the range's support with a decisive bearish candle, suggesting further downside potential. The price is likely to continue falling, with a target set at 30.00.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by NovaFX23
4
SILVER POTENTIAL BOUNCE PLAY BUY OPPORTUNITYHey everyone hope you are having an amazing day! I just wanted to come make another post here on this Thanksgiving week here in the States and give some insight to what I see for the commodity Silver! Hope this brings some value and you guys can pull some nuggets from this! Cheers OK so here is a breakdown based on each timeframe for what I am seeing!! 1W (Weekly) Timeframe: **price is overall bullish **price is coming back to a previous area of demand (buyers) **weekly fib retracement confluence with level 1D (Daily) Timeframe: **price is coming to previous demand around $29 per ounce **will be at a extreme discount zone (relevant to current market trend) **may be in oversold conditions on the RSI tool 4H (Hourly) Timeframe: **waiting to watch how price momentum from sellers is coming into zone **waiting for lower timeframe confluence Hope you guys enjoy this post please boost and follow the page for more analysis and potential setups! Cheers!
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by JosePips