WTI - Bearish 1Hour Divergence. Daily Trendline Tested. Market Analysis:
Asset: WTI (US Oil)
Timeframes:
1-Hour: Bearish divergence observed, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.
Daily: Trendline resistance tested and validated with three touchpoints, reinforcing its strength.
2. Divergence and Trendline Details:
Bearish Divergence: The price is making higher highs on the 1-hour chart, while oscillators (RSI, MACD) are making lower highs, signaling potential reversal to the downside.
Trendline Resistance: On the daily chart, the trendline has been tested three times, confirming a strong resistance area.
3. Trade Setup:
Entry Point:
Enter a short position once a bearish confirmation candle forms on the 1-hour chart (e.g., bearish engulfing or shooting star).
Alternatively, use a sell stop order just below the most recent 1-hour low to confirm the downward momentum.
Stop-Loss:
Place the stop-loss above the recent swing high on the 1-hour chart to account for potential volatility near resistance.
Take-Profit:
Aim for a 1:2 or higher risk-reward ratio.
Target key support levels or Fibonacci retracement zones on the 4-hour or daily chart.
4. Risk Management:
Position Size: Calculate based on the distance between entry and stop-loss, risking no more than 1-2% of trading capital.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Prioritize setups with at least a 1:2 risk-reward ratio to ensure favorable potential outcomes.
5. Additional Confirmation:
Volume Analysis: Look for decreasing volume as the price approaches the resistance trendline, signaling reduced bullish strength.
Support-Resistance Levels: Ensure targets align with well-defined support zones from prior price action.
6. Trade Execution:
Place Orders:
Set a sell order with predefined stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Monitor for bearish momentum indicators, such as trendline rejection or break of lower time-frame support.
Adjust Stops: If the price moves in your favor, trail the stop-loss to lock in profits as the trade develops.
