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USD/TRY_TOD - USD/TRY

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USDTRY_TOD trade ideas

Update: TRY Short - Incoming Hyperinflation & Eurobonds DefaultsSUMMARY: Short, economic damage to the Turkish economy is going to be severe; its' citizens will become poorer via wealth destruction and purchasing power erosion. Turkey is slashing rates in the face of rising inflation – which only developed economies can, while not understanding “transitory”. As the lira collapses against the Dollar, Ankara seems to be sending the signal this FX metric does not matter. If it is wrong, the consequences will be painful: hyperinflation is mentioned in a far from unconnected economy. Yet if it is right, the message for the US ought to be clear: and Turkey is extremely important in geostrategic terms. Erdogan's obsession with low interest rates will crush the FX rate and make imports unaffordable: such as Oil, Gas, advance intermediaries not made in Turkey. Also, Erdogan & Turkey has pursue multiple overseas expansionist Foreign Policy campaigns in "all directions" which has drained Turkey's resources. Chances of additional funding/finance life-lines from China and Qatar may not be big enough, or available, to steady the Turkish economy & FX rate. The other major emerging market in the region is Russia - link below Oil price (link below) measure both global economic activity and risk.
Short
by Tez8
USDTRY- LARGE DECLINE EXPECTEDThe USDTRY is setting up for a large decline. The FALSE BULL FLAG pattern suggest the danger on downside and not upside. Perhaps Central bank raises by surprise interest rates instead of what is believed to lower the interest rates once more this month. the change of the head of central bank no doubt has placed the currency in a tail spin, and all what is required to understand inflationary pressures with interest rates offset. Anyway, market is pricing in disaster hence the decline will be swift and unexpected. I see 11.00 > 10.32 as my objectives. Therefore sell 13.30-14.00 anywhere up really but again in very small increments to remain safe. Long is the wrong thing to be is my personal view.
Short
by peterbokma
7
USDTRY - SELL SELL SELL SELLGot lot's of remarks and statements that I do not understand Erdogan etc. Well, yes fundamentals and market psychology drive market, and those are build in charts. Hype and fear has always existed. Anyway, looking at history regardless reasons, if it's overdone it's overdone. Central banks can make extreme decisions, for example EURCHF peg, French Central bank raising short-term rates to 1,000% to defend currency (I was trading that market) Ok Erdogan has his ways and central bank has lowered interest rates while inflation is much higher so we have negative interest rates. My strategy remains careful sell current 13.5000 (and our long-term short USDTRY already in position) will pay overtime. In the end of the day it's an individual decision what side to be on. Question is, what if central bank raises short-term interest ates to defend the currency? the only thing that can happen, is to complete peg the currency or change it to a new one.. then question is what value will it be set at?
Short
by peterbokma
USDTRY - SELL SELLThe USDTRY has climbed back and is trying to retest the highs. The GANN resistance is strong, and even a spike may be a short moment of time only is my personal view. The RSI daily chart above 80.0 again and the weekly still 92.0 which is a strong message of caution. Strategy SELL current 12.85 - 13.15 for move to 11.0800 > 10.0300. Short-term expect 11.08 revisit and 10.0300 medium-term for now to release some market pressures before it can decide which way further.
Short
by peterbokma
5
USDTRY- 29Nov2021USDTRY- 29Nov2021 On the weekly, USDTRY pulled back after hitting 1st Resistance at 13.235. We maintain neutral for now and there is a slight chance that price could bounce up to retest this level this week. On the H4 timeframe, prices faced bearish pressure from 1st Resistance at 12.511. We will need to monitor the price action for further clue. There is slight chance that price bounce up to retest recent highs. This is for personal record purposes only, not financial advise or solicitation of trade.
by TTMFS