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USDRUB_TDB - USD/RUB

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USDRUB_TDB trade ideas

Ruble developing ground to restructure third world economiesOn the presented chart we have prepared, you can see correlations of Ruble currency with Telecoms, Steel producing, Concrete producing, Land transport and Medicine. As you can see Ruble is building a solid ground to become a back end for the developing world destroyed by conflicts and fist fights. ATR is going down and from the june it shows backward correlation with Ruble. This is good because this means Ruble can rise without volatility. Telecommunications prices are falling after this event. Steel producing showing strange pattern and can be a risk for the Ruble. Concrete producing and transportation developing a good foundation. Transportation industry is still and strong. And medicine industry showing weakness but we see rise in pharmaceuticals profits so we hope this will drag whole venture up.
by UnknownUnicorn462803
2
USDRUB Wonderful Fibonacci Channel trading setup.The USDRUB pair is trading on a Fibonacci Channel Up with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) providing the first level of Support. Coming of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price is on the 3rd mini Channel phase (orange) within the 1.0 and 1.5 Fibonacci levels, same as the previous (green) has been within 0.5 - 1.0 Fib and the one before (blue) within the 0.0 - 0.5 Fib. We should be half-way through this phase so every 1.5 Fib test is a sell opportunity and every 1.0 is a buy, until the price hits the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and starts the rise to the next Fib range (1.5 - 2.0). Currently the pair is a sell opportunity, targeting 95.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
Weaker RoubleUSD:RUB is now re-testing last months high of 73:1, which has been an area of interest since early 2020. Having formed a bullish wedge in the process, if broken upwards, 75:1, 78:1, 80:1 are logical targets for ladder sells. Technically, classical charting principals dictate a target of 85, which coincides with the last real area of historic price action for USD:RUB - further is bubble territory with 'pie in the sky' targets of 95:1, 107:1, etc, and I don't think those levels are in the cards anytime soon. Fundamentally, I am monitoring the effectiveness of the EU sanctions against Russian exports, which seem to be doing their job, as well as the actions of the CB which can halt this movement in a flash. Invalidation at around 69:1
Long
by AspiringPro
2
USDRUB updatePrice has reached strong fibo level (96.64) and we can see bearish 1 Week engulfing candle forming that shows selling presure. Generally what is happening? I draw 2 scenarios how price can act in the nearest future. 1 scenario: price will revers at about 97 rubles or 113 rubles by making sellers liquidity area and will head down to grab buyers liquidity ( less than 50 rubles) for further up movement to 137 rubles (sellers liquidity swap). 2 scenario: price continues an uptrend straight away to 137 rubles after what big drop will take place to 50 rubles (less than 50 rubles). In my subjective opinion first scenario is more likely to happen. But for me 96 rubles level isn't a final line for a drop. If we go to lower timeframes we will see imbalance at 110 rubles level. So I'm waiting price to reach 113 rubles (fibo + 1W order block) and then look for shorts. Let's see how it'll go on :)
by margarita_morozova
1
A high geopolitical risk causes Russian ruble to dropNo new known macroeconomic factors could cause the current ruble devaluation. They say sanctions, some say a drop in imports ECONOMICS:RUIMP , others drop in exports ECONOMICS:RUEXP , brain drain, discounts on Russian oil, etc. Some blame the Prigozhin mutiny, but it doesn't change economic or political perspectives of Russia. In my opinion, all these factors are in the price. The events, except the contained mutiny, haven't appeared suddenly. The situation has been evolving since previous February. All mentioned factors were discussed and evaluated a hundred times by pundits, exporters, importers, traders, and others. I agree that Russian international trade is in bad shape, but not in the worst. Russian current account ECONOMICS:RUCA is still positive. It continues its drop from the historical highs reached last year to the depressed level of 2015. It is not a catastrophe compared with peers, having a worse current account and weaker national currencies, though are not sanctioned. You are reading a thankless type of forecast . I can't prove it with macro, but the determined bullish trend hints foreign currency buyers are aggressive because something forces them to sell rubles. I believe the current drop in the Russian ruble is caused by an anticipated huge geopolitical event that may have far-reaching consequences for Russia, like 24 February 2022. Before that date the ruble was oversold. Russia had a strong macro (robust current account on the back of high petroleum and metal prices.) During those three months, only newspapers disturbed with publications Russian would attack. It could partly exert pressure on ruble, but because the attack wasn't started, it became the boy who cried wolf. I can't prove it, but I suppose, that only a few people close to Putin could know what would happen and sell rubles and open short positions causing ruble fatigue before the war. Last week's ruble devaluation reminiscent me of the oversold ruble in February 2022. I hypothesize that people close to the Russian head are fearing some event in the nearest future. Those people, let's call them oligarchs, could sell rubles now or open shorts to hedge if the event happens. From the macroeconomic view, it is pure capital flight. The fear may be related to a Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant disaster and the West prospective actions. If something extraordinary happens, I won't be surprised if USD spikes to the previous high of 150 in several weeks (to the star of the Kremlin tower pattern drawn in spring 2022). If nothing occurs during the next 2-4 weeks, I expect ruble sellers to cool off and ruble retreat to 85 .
Long
by Nikita_Kalinin
3
USDRUB People are asking for the update on USDRUB . Nothing really has changed from my previous analysis. The only thing , I was sure that price will react on 87-89 range. But there is no sing of reversal from this level, so the next target is 95 rubles . About the target for shorts. I still think that we going to drop lower than 50 rubles . Second scenario is when price takes sellers liquidity. Because if we ask ourselves 'what price has made'? Correct answer is -- bearish break of structure (or change of character). So technically we are in a down trend from 2022. But after clear (in our example, bearish) choch price often moves higher to take previous high (121.50) as liquidity and only then price finally drops. I see this scenario all the time on 4h 15m or 5m charts. If so target is 137 rubles for 1 US dollar. But we have to stay positive and pray for 95 rubles level :)
Short
by margarita_morozova
3
Mutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 MonthsMutiny Sends Ruble to Lowest in 15 Months In one of the most turbulent trading sessions this year, the Russian ruble reached its lowest point against the US dollar in nearly 15 months on Monday. This decline followed the failed mutiny attempt by The Wagner group’s armed mercenaries over the weekend, which caused significant concern among traders. Initially catapulting to approximately 87 rubles per US dollar, the ruble later recovered some of its losses, settling at around 84.40, down 0.90% against the greenback. The Wagner group, led by troops loyal to their leader, made an unexpected advancement toward Moscow, covering hundreds of miles before eventually reversing course. In a deal struck with the Kremlin, it is reported that the group's leader, Prigozhin, will go into exile in Belarus. This incident is regarded as the most significant challenge to Vladimir Putin's rule and could weaken his leadership. The armed uprising also caused volatility in other markets. The international benchmark, Brent crude, rose by 0.8% to approximately $74 per barrel. The trading volume between the Russian ruble and Tether's USDT nearly quadrupled from $4 million on Saturday to $15 million on Sunday. In other developments, the Japanese yen strengthened by 0.11% against the US dollar, trading at 143.50 per dollar. Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Masato Kanda, stated that Japan was not ruling out intervening in the currency markets again. He expressed concerns about the yen's rapid and one-sided depreciation against the dollar. Japan previously intervened in the foreign exchange markets in September and October of the previous year when the yen hit a 32-year low of nearly 152 per dollar.
by BlackBull_Markets