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U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble

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USDRUB trade ideas

#USDRUBEconomic pressure from developed countries was unprecedented. The Russian Federation has become the absolute record holder in terms of the number of sanctions imposed on it, bypassing countries such as North Korea and Iran. In response to the sanctions policy, the ministers limited the capital account, greatly inflated the interest rate and allowed commercial banks to introduce a commission for storing dollars and euros (about 12% per year), without the possibility of withdrawing cash (only in rubles, at the rate of the Central Bank) . Naturally, a cash currency market appeared, the spread of which at the current price is about 10 rubles. The high volatility of the national currency and the withdrawal of Western firms hit imports catastrophically, while exports continued to bring in large foreign exchange earnings due to high energy prices. Thus, we got an artificial strengthening of the ruble, for which we created all the necessary macroeconomic conditions - a huge positive trade balance. The state budget also remained in surplus for a long time. After the onset of 2023, all past "pros" for the ruble were not viable. The Central Bank lowered the key interest rate to 7.5%, the trade balance has ceased to be published since March 2022. Thus, we observe 2 important factors: 1) The state budget deficit, which in January already received 65% of the entire projected deficit for 2023. 2) QE, which was launched by the Central Bank to finance budget gaps through REPO. Of course, the government has a special fund to cover the budget deficit, but its liquid part is 6.5 trillion rubles, while the budget deficit, only in January, amounted to 1.76 trillion. In this case, the government has already begun sequestering the budget, with the exception of military and power items. However, this is not enough in the face of the loss of major sales markets and declining energy prices. Gas prices in Europe fell below $600, and URALS oil fell below $60, although back in November they were $83. Under these conditions, the government is left with few options: 1. Significantly reduce military spending and neutralize the budget deficit. 2. Significantly weaken the ruble to restore lost income. 3. Strengthen the hidden QE program. 4. Spend the entire stabilization fund. I would like the reader to understand that there is a social contract in the Russian Federation - although social security is insignificant, and payments are minimal, they must be carried out impeccably, since violation of this contract entails political risks. All 4 options, with the exception of the 1st, look the most realistic, with a possible combination. Under these conditions, I do not see other scenarios, except for the continuation of the trend for the weakening of the Russian currency. Even in the event of an end to the conflict, a reduction in government spending on military needs and a partial lifting of sanctions, Europe is unlikely to allow the restoration of the former sales markets for Russian energy resources and Europe's trend towards diversifying supplies is unlikely to change, it remains only to look for new ones. However, Russia has already lost part of the most solvent market. Strengthening is possible, but this requires a strong position on the part of the Central Bank, which must again raise the interest rate and hold it for a long time, but in the current macroeconomic conditions this looks unlikely, although such a development cannot be ruled out. Technical picture: After a false breakdown of the main resistance 79.6 - 86.1, the price returned under it and now it acts as the main reference point for market participants. In the same area, the previous price pattern passes, which now acts as a resistance line. Last year, a new price model was formed to reduce the value of the US currency. Also, we have a dollar support level at 51.4 - 48.7. Therefore, I recommend to closely monitor the area of the past resistance level, at the moment the picture tells us, at a minimum, about trading in a range and or a possible further strengthening of the ruble. However, it is the fundamental picture that tells us about reverse.
Long
by VOKCAPITAL
4
BTC resistanceGenesis goes bankrupt and the price soars. The price is coming up to the golden pocket and I think it'll get a pull back around the 23k mark. The measured move off the descending wedge is 30k Short term short, mid term long, long term short... still have "TA hope" that till drop down to that 9.8k to fill the open CME gap. This is caution zone for new entries... some missed the boat. Compare when 3 arrows capitol filed bankruptcy.. short push up and then drop again. Compare this to 2019 when BTC dipped and had the breakout running from 3k up to 14k, then dropped back down to 3k. Major adoption still isn't here just yet. This is the year to accumulate as much as you can before the boom
Short
by krjcrypto
USDRUB Supported and with a STOCH Bullish Cross!The USDRUB has been trading within a 5 month Rectangle pattern ever since the price retraced from the start of the war High. The price made a High on October 11 and has been pulling back since but for the 7th straight session, it remains supported on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which since late July has been trading around the Rectangle's middle (median), thus acting as somewhat a pivot point. This level of Support along with the fact that the STOCH RSI is making a Bullish Cross, presents a short-term buy opportunity, first towards the top of the High Volatility Zone and then towards the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
2