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U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble

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USDRUB trade ideas

USDRUB exotics upd. Oct. 23, 2021 Russian Central Bank raise rates and we get boost of RUB longs against XXX pairs. With such energy prices and fools rulers in European Union that developed recently spot market natural gas instead of Long Term contracts (as China btw did) we can expect further strength of RUB against other currencies. What is the main risks for this long RUB positions? The main risks is politics. USA withdraw troops from Afghanistan, so naturally they have a lot of army nothing to do. And we can trace new spots of US attention. First is Taiwan and clash with China, second is Ukraine, Moldova and clash with Russia. As we look at RUB lets observe this region. 1. This week General Secretary of the NATO alliance Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia should not be afraid of Ukraine's accession to NATO, because the former cannot influence this process in any case. We understand that there is a process of accession already. 2. "The third and final batch of additional international security-related aid worth $60 million from the U.S. government has arrived in Ukraine for the needs of the Ukrainian armed forces, including ammunition, anti-tank and precision-guided weapons, medical supplies, and so on," the ministry said in a statement posted on Twitter Friday. The first and second shipments of U.S. military aid arrived in Kiev on October 10 and 18. Sniper rifles, artillery guns and grenade launchers are also supplied on a commercial basis. According to a report by the U.S. Defense Security and Cooperation Agency, the U.S. sold $1.47 billion worth of products to Ukraine from 2016 to 2020 as part of the foreign military supplies program (in all previous years, the value of supplies was $179.2 million). 3. Two U.S. military facilities are already under construction at Ochakov and Illyichevsk, legendary as "training centers," but in fact bases. 4. On September 26, 2021, the first military transport aircraft of the US Air Force with military equipment for the Moldovan National Army landed at the Chisinau airport. The entire batch of military equipment worth $5 million will be delivered by several aircrafts by the end of 2021. Hotel Zentrum complex in Chisinau With the arrival of three American planes with military equipment, there were guests. There were so many that even they had to open the building, which was considered a reserve. The lodgers were of the same type: they were huge, wore ill-fitting civilian clothes, and spoke English. What is interesting: nobody has a departure date in the column period of stay. Arrival is indicated, but departure is not. We can see how the U.S. is preparing to act, as it usually does, on the example of many other stories of coercion of any country to do something. Here, of course, everything will be under cover and someone else's hands, but the risk of currency fluctuations is important to us. While the process of grouping of forces is going on and there will be no external manifestations, we can expect further strengthening of the ruble. As soon as we see a foam, the ruble will sharply lose in value. In the current situation, is there expected to be no escalation before the end of this year? In any case, I will sit tight until the end of November, hoping for a lull in the political skies. Trade safe and wise. Not legal and financial advice; Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
by AlpacaBlack
$USDRUB - Could drop to 70.5Hi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 Globally, oil prices soar, as lockdown restrictions ease and airlines resume operations. Crude is traded near $80 and Brent already surpassed the $83 per barrel mark. Russia is World’s third largest oil supplier. 🔔 Through the year, the Russian Ministry of finance continued its streak of foreign currency and gold purchases. These factors support the strengthening of ruble at least until the end of the year, while the growing foreign currency portfolio will act as a great instrument for Russia to keep the USD/RUB rate within the range of their interest. 🔔 From the technical point of view, USD/RUB also looks bearish for now. There is a descending channel on a daily USD/RUB chart. The 70.5 support area is an important level to watch, as it will be decisive for the next move of USD/RUB. Based on the rules of the falling wedge pattern, the price must complete the 5 wave move and reverse, as it’s a trend reversal pattern. 🔔 However, if the price drops below 70.5 which might happen due to several reasons, interest hike risk, weakening the US Dollar, soaring oil and gas prices. Russia sealing gas export deals with other EU countries, then USD/RUB might proceed down to 68 and 67 as seen on a weekly chart below. 🔔 The pressure on the US Dollar index is high as well, the most anticipated NFP data release today. These data will draw a further course of the US Dollar index, which has already tested a severe resistance zone at 94.3. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
Short
by azizelliott
2
USDRUB upd. Sep. 30, 2021 - (conspiracy view)Pros - One of the best armies on this globe. Almost completely reorganized in the last 10 years with the latest weaponry. - Despite sanctions feels good, agriculture developed, which was not needed because there were supplies from Europe. Now any field in central Russia is cultivated for crops. - There is a small amount of money in circulation. - Lack of government debts. - Over-sold currency due to sanctions and the desires of exporters. - The energy crisis in Europe. No one will help except the country that holds 60 percent of all mineral reserves on earth. - France is actively distancing itself from the U.S. - Germany is choosing a new chancellor after 15 years of Merkel's rule, how this will affect relations with Russia is not yet clear, but Merkel has always broadcast America's terms. - The weakening of the US, the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan is one confirmation of the beginning of the tectonic underlying causes of the beginning of the disintegration. Cons - Not too smart leadership, mostly those who praise Putin well are allowed into power. - Social elevators don't work. Cronyism flourishes. - The banking system has been destroyed; all banks are now essentially state-owned or owned by the central bank. - The population is not rich. (And where is the rich population now? There was one three-letter country here recently, and it's almost gone.) - Export elites do not want strong ruble. - Conflicts with US satellites like Poland, Baltic countries and Ukraine. Conclusions If we look at the TA levels we can see that the level below 72 is locally key. If it is passed we will look south with the maximum targets in the area of the previous central bank purchases. Against the background of the departure from risk and the salvation of funds the world's shadow structures can park them in the ruble and Scandinavian currencies. Not only shadow btw. Trade safe and wise.
by AlpacaBlack