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U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

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USDNZD trade ideas

NZ dollar slips ahead of retail sales, Powell’s speechThe New Zealand dollar is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD has fallen to 0.6132 at the time of writing, down 0.41% on the day. The New Zealand dollar continues to have its way with its US counterpart and has soared 4% since July 29. The markets are braced for a downturn in retail sales for the second quarter, with a market estimate of -1%, following a 0.5% gain in the first quarter. The New Zealand economy has been struggling and weak retail sales in June drove the Services PSI lower to 40.2 in June, compared to 42.6 in May. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. High interest rates have weighed heavily on economic activity and consumers have cut back sharply on discretionary spending. In the US, the FOMC minutes of the July meeting reaffirmed that the Fed is headed towards a milestone rate cut at the Sept. 18 meeting. Most of the Fed officials at the meeting favored reducing rates next month, provided that that data “continued to come in about as expected”. The markets have fully priced in a September cut, which hasn’t happened since the onset of the Covid pandemic. The annual Jackson Hole symposium is often little more than a photo-op but this year promises to be different. Next month, the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver its first rate cut since March 2020, likely in the form of a quarter-point cut. There is an outside chance of a large half-point cut, which would become more likely if the next jobs report on Sept. 6 points to further cooling job growth. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6147. Below, there is support at 0.6100 The next resistance line is 0.6209
by OANDA
NZD/USD Approaches Resistance: Are Shorts the Next Move?The NZD/USD pair has reached a key supply area around 0.6168, which coincides with a significant resistance zone on the daily timeframe. This area has attracted attention due to the confluence of several technical and fundamental factors. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders are increasingly taking long positions in the pair, while fund managers are moving in the opposite direction, positioning themselves short. Additionally, commercial traders, who typically represent larger institutional players, are beginning to reduce their long positions, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. This shift aligns with broader market indicators, including seasonality patterns and oscillator readings, which both support the case for a potential short setup. The seasonality analysis indicates a period of historical weakness for the NZD/USD pair, while oscillators suggest that the recent upward momentum may be losing steam. Given these factors, the supply area around 0.6168 presents a compelling opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on a potential downward move. The combination of technical resistance, COT positioning, and seasonal trends all point towards a possible short setup in the near term. As always, traders should monitor these levels closely and consider risk management strategies to navigate the evolving market conditions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Analysis of NZD/USD: Price Approaches Key Resistance ZoneAnalysis of NZD/USD: Price Approaches Key Resistance Zone The NZD/USD chart today shows that the New Zealand dollar has risen by over 3% against the USD in less than a week. From another perspective, the NZD/USD rate has climbed more than 5% from its August low. The volatility in the exchange rate was influenced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to cut interest rates, as reported on 14 August. Technical analysis of the NZD/USD chart reveals: → The current bullish sentiment has pushed the RSI indicator from the oversold into the overbought zone. → The 0.60770 level, which marked the peak on 13-14 August, may now act as support following its bullish breakout on 19 August. More notably, the NZD/USD rate has entered a resistance zone (marked in purple), formed by trendlines drawn through key highs of 2023-2024. This could potentially slow the upward momentum. As a result, the NZD/USD chart might continue to see significant fluctuations between this resistance zone and the critical support at 0.588 (a level where the price has repeatedly attempted, but failed, to break below over the past 12 months). Investor attention now shifts to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, which could trigger a surge in volatility and provide insights into how strongly the resistance zone is impacting the NZD/USD rate. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Kiwi D1 | Rising into multi-swing-high resistance barrierThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 0.6194 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 0.6251 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Take profit is at 0.6081 which is an overlap support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
NZDUSD M30 I Bearish reversal Based on the M30 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.6152, which is a pullback resistance. Our take profit will be at 0.6084, a pullback support level. The stop loss will be at 0.6183, above a swing high resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
NZD/USD Bulls Flexing: Ready for the Next Leg Up?Alright y'all, let's break down this NZD/USD move real quick. Starting with the weekly chart, we can see the pair just bounced off a key support zone around the 0.5900 level and has been pushing up aggressively. The bullish momentum is strong, as we’ve got a clean break above the 21 EMA, with price testing resistance near 0.6200. The structure on the weekly chart is looking solid, indicating that the bulls are in control right now. Dropping down to the daily chart, the bullish momentum continues to hold. We’re seeing higher highs and higher lows forming, which aligns with the overall uptrend. The price has also managed to break above the 200 EMA, which was a significant hurdle. Now, price is testing the resistance zone around 0.6165. If we get a solid close above this level, it could signal further upside, possibly targeting the next resistance around 0.6280. Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, the pair is consolidating just under the 0.61700 resistance level. This could be a key area to watch for a potential breakout. If price breaks above 0.61500 with volume, I'd be looking to enter long with a target towards 0.6280, keeping a stop just below the recent low around 0.61300. The bulls are in the driver's seat, but always keep your risk management in check!
Long
by SheenaL
2
Bullish Engulfing at AMA—Could We See a Bounce to 61.8%?Bullish Engulfing at AMA—Could We See a Bounce to 61.8%? After that steep drop in NZD/USD, it looks like the bulls might be waking up. We’ve just spotted a nice bullish engulfing pattern right at the AMA (Adaptive Moving Average), which usually hints that a bounce could be on the way. If you’re into Fibonacci levels, you’ll notice that the 61.8% retracement level at 0.60454 is lining up as a sweet spot for a potential move up. This level often acts like a magnet, pulling prices back after a big move. Thinking about getting in? A long position here could make sense, aiming for that 61.8% level. Just remember to keep it safe with a stop loss below the recent low, around the 23.6% level. That way, you’re balancing risk and reward pretty nicely. This setup could be a good opportunity to catch a retracement after yesterday’s sell-off, especially with that bullish pattern giving us some confidence.
Long
by Tanakorn_Koomrampai_CMT_CFTe