USDMXN trade ideas
USDMXN | 19.09.2024BUY 19.24000 | STOP 19.02000 | TAKE 19.46000 | Fixing the price above the support level. We expect growth towards values of 19.46000-19.55000.
There is a posibilty to buy in USD/MX
Well, i could say that now, we are in the fifth (4h),
elliot wave and Ill take de OP in the 61.88 of fibbo because there is a Imbalance so is a interesting price,because also we have a Elliot microwave that now is making the 2nd wave, as we can se also it making a type of SHS.
Mexican Peso (USDMXN). Selling opportunity in the short term?Fundamental analysis
Signs of strength in the US economy supported expectations that the Fed will take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts. Although some US economic indicators showed a slight slowdown, markets pointed to robust jobs and September consumer inflation data.
Rising odds of a Trump victory in the November election also increase speculations that the Fed will be moderate in terms of cutting interest rates, due to Trump's policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes being seen as inflationary. According to CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% rate cut in the November meeting are around 92%, with no odds on a 0.50% cut.
Locally, Bank of Mexico minutes highlighted the need for a less restrictive monetary policy, while Banxico’s survey revealed that economists estimate the central bank will lower rates by 0.50% for the rest of 2024. The divergence between the Fed and Banxico's monetary policies added pressure to the Mexican Peso.
Meanwhile, Trump proposed imposing up to 300% tariffs on Mexican-made cars, raising concerns about disruptions to Mexico's automotive sector.
Technical analysis
From a technical perspective, the Mexican Peso stabilized this week after testing the Fibonacci level support at 38.5% (around 19.20). The price is approaching the latest high at 20.20, but the RSI is in the overbought zone, which could suggest a correction to the downside in the short term.
USD/MXN Trade Plans (Simple)Closing ranges on the USDMXN are promoting short side entries.
Expecting range to ultimately break. Eyes on FED (and Banxico if you can).
USDMXN H1 / signal :- longUSDMXN max go up from the order block.
Bearish Order Block :- 19.56299 and 19.50073
Bullish Order Block :- 19.23786 and 19.19141
The price is nearly at the bullish order block so we can expect the upward momentum now.
If the price touches the Order Block then we can expect a upward momentum. there is high probability that the price go up from the given bullish order block.
I have used Most advanced price action strategy with is known as SMC(SMART MONEY CONCEPTS).
My analysis shown that
Entry price :- 19.23687
Take Profit :- 19.38041
Stop Loss :- 19.09333
USD/MXN Consolidates within September RangeUSD/MXN seems to be consolidating within the September range after closing below the 50-Day SMA (19.4039) for the first time since May, but the exchange rate may struggle to retain the advance from the monthly low (19.1112) as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.
USD/MXN may no longer reflect the bullish trend from earlier this year amid the flattening slope in the moving average, with a close below 19.1470 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) opening up 18.8560 (50% Fibonacci extension).
At the same time, USD/MXN may track sideways if it continues to hold above the September low (19.0663) but need a break/close above the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region to bring the monthly high (19.8310) on the radar.
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
Ahead of the US elections, USDMXN may consolidate Intraday Update: As discussed on the Morning Edge Show last week, the USDMXN may be developing a triangle or broader consolidation near term ahead of the US elections. The 19.20's may offer support intraday.
Usdmxn sell position setupChecklist:
1. BOS- Bearish
2. Trend- bearish
3. Liquidity present
4. Price is at supply zone (entry level)
SL: above OB
TP: Swing low
USDMXN: Short Term BuyEntry: 19.4600
Stop Loss: 19.3000 (160 pips below entry)
Take Profit: 19.7000 (240 pips above entry, offering a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning: The Mexican peso has been showing signs of weakening, while the U.S. dollar has been gaining strength. This trend suggests that USD/MXN could continue its upward movement, providing a potential buying opportunity.
USDMXN View!!The Mexican peso weakened past 19.4 per USD, moving further away from a two-week high of 19.27 reached on October 4, as investors evaluated the latest domestic inflation data while the US dollar gained ground.
Mexico's core annual inflation rate fell to 3.91% in September, its lowest level since February 2021, down from 4% in August and slightly below forecasts.
Similarly, the headline annual inflation rate declined for the second consecutive month to 4.58%, its lowest since March and below market expectations of 4.62%.
USDCAD is probing major supportIntraday Update: Ahead of the US jobs report the USDMXN is testing some major support (channel) as US equity markets futures trade to highs ahead of the data as well. A break of the 19.05 level today would be a bearish event for the pair.
USDMXN nearing resistance with new incoming GovernmentIntraday Update: The USDMXN is nearing the 19.74 key resistance ahead of the new Mexican government inauguration today, and a break higher would put the 20.1500 resistance is play once again.
USD/MXN: Sheinbaum Era Begins Mexico makes history today as Claudia Sheinbaum becomes the country’s first female president. With nearly 35.5 million votes—representing close to 60% of the electorate—Sheinbaum secured more votes than any president in Mexican history.
Since the election, the Mexican peso has declined by around 13%. Recent price action has moved sideways as markets assess Sheinbaum's economic policies.
However, traders anticipating a sharper selloff in USD/MXN may need to wait, as the pair potentially remains upwardly biased with the 20 Day and 50 Day EMA outlining possibly areas of support.
USDMXN nearing key Fibonacci levelIntraday Update: The USDMXN is breaking higher intraday and is nearing the 61.8% retracement level of the last move lower. Also keep in mind this is a bullish channel and on Oct 1 the new Government will be inaugurated which may have some MXN bulls concerned.
USD/MXN Bounces Back Ahead of 50-Day SMAUSD/MXN appears to be bouncing back ahead of the 50-Day SMA (19.1627) as it climbs to a fresh weekly high (19.6849).
In turn, USD/MXN may track the positive slope in the moving average as it continues to hold above the indicator, with a break/close above the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone bringing the yearly high (20.2271) on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around 20.3200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) but lack of momentum to break/close above the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone may keep USD/MXN within the August range.
Lack of momentum to hold above the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may push USD/MXN back towards 19.1470 (61.8% Fibonacci extension), with the next area of interest coming in around the monthly low (19.0660).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
USD/MXN Elliot waves theoryThe ELLIOT WAVES theory have formed and filled the chart perfectly and now the price can continue to its uptrend right now creating new impulsive waves to the upside right now.
USD/MXN POTENCIAL UPTRENDAs you can see the price have formed an existing inverted head and shoulders in the 2 hour time frame for a better look in the chart.There will be more continuation of the pattern and the uptrend if the 20 EMA broke above the 100 SMA in the 2 hour time frame, the movements are confirmed too with the volume on each correction phase of the pattern and strong moves with strong movements
USD/MXN on Track to Test Positive Slope in 50-Day SMAUSD/MXN approaches the 50-Day SMA (18.9615) as it slips to a fresh monthly low (19.0919), with a break/close below 18.8560 (50% Fibonacci extension) bringing the 18.5090 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 18.6330 (50% Fibonacci retracement) zone on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around the August low (18.4291) but USD/MXN may track the positive slope in the moving average should it continue to hold above the indicator.
Need a move above the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region to bring the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone back on the radar, with a breach above the monthly high (20.1496) opening up the August high (20.2271).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
USDMXN testing the 61.8Intraday Update: The USDMXN is holding around the 61.8% retracement near the 19.19 level, which could allow for a bounce. A break of the 19.14 level would target the 19.00 level or channel support.
USD/MXN Vulnerable amid Struggle to Test August HighUSD/MXN may threaten the opening range for September as it struggles to test the August high (20.2271).
USD/MXN Rate Outlook
USD/MXN continues to pull back from the monthly high (20.1496) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 70, with a break/close below the 19.5620 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 19.6280 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region raising the scope for a move towards 19.1470 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).
Next area of interest comes in around 18.8560 (50% Fibonacci extension) but USD/MXN may track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (18.7936) as it holds above the moving average.
Need a close above the 19.8990 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 20.0900 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone to bring 20.3200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) on the radar, with the next hurdle coming in around the September 2022 high (20.5804).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus.
The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%.
Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month.
Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
USD going to pump hard Real recession incoming, you can smell it in the air. We are due for a huge correction.
Expecting a pump to resistance at around $17.50, thereafter one final drop to ~16.80 and an extreme pump after. $30 by 2028, you heard it here first.
