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U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso

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USDMXN trade ideas

USD/MXN 15,5-16 there was a paralel channel between 1995-2023 and MXN was swinging between lines, It's not easy to break down a 23 years old channel, if there is no solid actions in the future, something beyond of your usual ideas. your mind may say its a bottom, MXN has to be traded between 19.50 and 21 but its not and it will not. Reasons; 1- Mexico has the highest currency protection - If you don't have a company doing export and import, you can not have USD account. - Money exchanging immediately after swift operations, there is no chance to holding USD overnight in your bank account. 2- With new President Amlo, Mexico's political decisions more stable and less corrupted, since the COVID, foreigners real-estate investments started to increase in Baja California, Yucatan , Oaxaca and especially in Quintana Roo states (Cancun, Tulum) 3- Also big American companies are building new factories at the North of the country where near to US border. For cheaper labor cost and less income taxes. Elon Musk's Tesla building a giga factory in Monterrey, Nuevo León 4- Chinese companies are throwing money in North side of Mexico for new factories and investments. Less transportation cost + benefiting from Nafta agreement.
Short
by Stockthunder
USDMXN 9/JUN/2023On the daily timeframe, the price of USDMXN is displaying a descending channel pattern. This pattern consists of a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming a channel with a downward slope. Currently, the price is within the descending channel pattern and approaching the support level. Given the characteristics of a descending channel pattern, there is a higher probability of a price rebound or bounce when it reaches the support area. This means that we might see a temporary upward movement in the price as it interacts with the support line of the channel. If the US monetary policy tends to be dovish, meaning leaning towards looser or more accommodative measures, there is a possibility that the price could fall further. This could happen if the market interprets such policy as negative for the US dollar, leading to increased selling pressure on USDMXN. Paying attention to inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings is crucial for understanding the future direction of the USD. Here's why: Inflation refers to the increase in the general price level of goods and services over time. Rising inflation erodes the purchasing power of a currency, including the USD. Therefore, monitoring inflation data helps assess the potential impact on the USD's value. Higher inflation may lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy, which can strengthen the currency, while lower inflation might imply a more accommodative stance, potentially weakening the currency. The FOMC is the policy-making body of the Federal Reserve, responsible for setting the monetary policy of the United States. FOMC meetings provide insights into the current economic conditions, growth projections, and decisions regarding interest rates and other monetary policy tools. Changes in interest rates directly affect the attractiveness of a currency for investors, impacting its value. Therefore, understanding the outcomes and statements from FOMC meetings is crucial for predicting the future direction of the USD. FOMC meetings also provide valuable information through the Federal Reserve's forward guidance. This guidance offers indications about the future path of monetary policy, such as the likelihood of rate hikes or cuts, tapering of asset purchases, or adjustments to other policy tools. Investors closely analyze these signals to anticipate shifts in interest rate differentials, which can influence currency exchange rates. Inflation data and FOMC meetings influence market sentiment and expectations. Positive economic data and signals of tighter monetary policy may instill confidence in the USD, attracting investors and supporting its value. Conversely, weaker inflation data or indications of a more accommodative policy stance might lead to concerns and a potential depreciation of the currency.
Long
by DNP-FX
USDMXN set for a rebound! just not yet!This is my personal take on the upcoming rebound of the MXN peso. The past few weeks, We have seen how key resistances have failed to stall the dramatic gains of the mexican pesos vs the dollar of over 30%. By closing on the 17.26 -17.29 mark it will trigger a key important level of support, which could propell the exchange to hit the highest mark since March 2023. In this case we have two scenarios A] The rebound at 17.26-17.29 is weak and fails to hit passed the 18.36 resistance level. Signaling a continuation of the bear market. B] The rebound passes the 18.37 resistance level. Signaling a second time for a reversal of the bear market. However the likelyhood of pattern to test a slightly higher price level is absolute. On the otther hand, if the 17.25 level is broken, the MXN peso is set to be one of the best performing currencies for the rest of the year. Looking to touch new lows such as 14 or even 12 MXN per USD levels and to see the Peso maintain around the 13 - 15 price level for the rest of the year. Levels not seen never since 2014 - 2015 respectively. The rate will probably leave Mexico hurting economically as the governent will need to step in to ease the high exchange rate which will leave Mexico uncompetitive and increase inflation to new highs. The 2024 will see the Mexican peso trying to regain the 17-18 mark with mix results. This should secure the MXN as one of the best mid and long term in FX markets.
Long
by suikaking
Why the Mexican Peso Surged Against the USD? On Wednesday, the US dollar decreased in value against other major currencies, including the Mexican peso, by over 1%, due to reports of slower than expected US inflation. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hikes. According to data from the US Labor Department, inflation in April decreased to 4.9%, which is the lowest year-over-year increase in two years and lower than market forecasts of 5%. The slower inflation was attributed to slower growth in food prices and a further decrease in energy costs. However, core inflation remained high at 5.5%, indicating that interest rates may need to stay high for some time to control it. Fed funds futures traders are anticipating a pause before expected rate cuts in September, which might be a little optimistic, as the Fed's target range remains at 5% to 5.25%. The Mexican peso gained strength to 17.544, its highest value since July 2017, as the difference between US and Mexican monetary policies became more pronounced. The RSI on the USDMXN suggests it is in an extreme oversold condition, so a pullback may be necessary. Resistance levels from 2017 for the pair may no longer be relevant, but the strongest value the peso reached in 2017 was $17.430, while the peak in 2016 was $17.050. For fundamental context, Banxico increased rates to an all-time high of 11.25% in March, despite a decrease in annual headline inflation that was greater than expected. Mexico's proximity to the US has also made it an attractive location for foreign companies to open factories targeting the American market and diversifying production from China. Additionally, the US economy's robust state has led to a rise in remittances to Mexico from expats.
by BlackBull_Markets
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