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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY price action: breakout rally after hawkish FedThe USD/JPY pair has surged over 2% to reach 157.51, marking the yen's weakest level in four months. This significant rally follows recent interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite the Fed's 25bps rate cut, the US dollar has gained strength due to the market's anticipation of only two rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with earlier expectations of four. This decision maintains the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, benefiting carry trade strategies. Meanwhile, the BoJ has kept its short-term rate steady at 0.25%, its highest since 2008, with potential rate hikes forecasted if economic conditions align. The US's optimistic economic projections, with rising GDP, inflation, and job growth, further bolster the dollar's appeal. As global economic uncertainties and political changes unfold, traders should monitor central bank signals to navigate the USD/JPY's trajectory and carry trade opportunities.
by tastyfx
USD/JPY hits 5-mth high after BoJ holds ratesThe Japanese yen continues its rapid descent and is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.82, up 1.3% on the day. Earlier, the yen weakened to 157.14, its lowest level against the US dollar since July 22. The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve on Thursday as it maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.25%. The BoJ has kept rates steady since July but has signaled that it intends to normalize policy and raise rates. The central bank has been guarded about the timing of a rate hike and there was some speculation that it might raise rates at Thursday's meeting. The decision to hold rates was not unanimous, with 8 members voting in favor and one member voting for a 25-basis point hike. The rate statement did not shed much light on the BoJ's plans but Governor Ueda said at his press conference that the BoJ could afford to move slowly on raising rates since underlying inflation was only increasing at a "moderate pace". The markets expect another rate hike in the first quarter of 2025. Ueda also noted that there was uncertainty over the policies of the  incoming Trump administration. Trump has declared he will impose tariffs on US trading partners, which could affect global inflation. Interestingly, the BoJ holds its next meeting on Jan. 24, a day after Trump takes office. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut was widely expected but the market was surprised by the Fed's updated rate-cut forecast. In September, the Fed projected four rate cuts in 2025 but this was halved to just two cuts at the Wednesday meeting. US stock markets were sharply lower in response but the US dollar shined and rose sharply on Wednesday against all the major currencies, including 0.85% against the yen. At his follow-up press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he was "very optimistic" about the strength of the US economy but he was less rosy about inflation, which has stalled above the Fed's 2% target. Powell said, "we have been moving sideways on 12-month inflation", a signal that the Fed may take a pause from its easing cycle until inflation resumes its downswing. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.38 and 155.92 and is putting pressure on resistance at 156.98 154.32 and 153.78 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY Will Move Higher! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 153.785. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 154.383 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
3
USDJPY - Short active !!Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. I expect bearish price action as price rejected from bearish OB + institutional big figure 154.000. As well we have hidden divergence for sell. Fundamental news: On Wednesday (GMT+2) we will see results of Interest Rate on USD and on Thursday on JPY, news with high impact on currencies. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Short
by Snick3rSD
USDJPY - Potential Reversal and Key Levels to WatchUSDJPY - Potential Reversal and Key Levels to Watch USDJPY pair is currently trading around 154.60, showing signs of a possible correction after a strong bullish move and today's FOMC decision. The price touched a key resistance zone beginning at around 154.50, which aligns with historical supply levels. Elliott Wave Structure The current wave count suggests that we might be nearing the completion of a larger impulsive structure. The five-wave sequence to the upside appears to be reaching exhaustion, indicating that a corrective move (potentially in the form of an ABC pattern) could follow. The completion of Wave (5) near the recent highs reinforces this corrective scenario. Key Support Levels On the downside, significant support can be found around the 150.00-152.00 range, where multiple factors come into play: Strong institutional demand is likely in this zone, as indicated by a large order block. The 0.618 and 0.764 Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous bullish (beginning in early Dec. 2024) move also converge here, offering further validation for potential buy-side activity. If the price corrects further, we expect these levels to act as a major buffer against extended downside movement. A break below 150.00, however, could open the door for deeper retracements towards 145.00 and below. Upside Potential Should the current consolidation break higher, USD/JPY could aim to retest the critical resistance between 154.50 and 156.00. A clean break above this zone would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook and open the path towards new highs, possibly targeting the 160.00 psychological level. Momentum & Volume The VOLD shows a mixed picture, with momentum slowing down but not yet turning decisively bearish. This suggests that the market is at a key inflection point, where further price action will determine the next trend. Bulls need to clear the 156.00 resistance to regain full control, while bears will be watching for a breakdown below 152.00 for confirmation of a deeper correction. Conclusion USD/JPY is trading at a critical juncture. The resistance at 154.50-156.00 will be crucial in determining whether we see a continuation of the uptrend or a deeper correction. Traders should watch for a potential pullback to the 154.00-152.00 zone as a key area for possible long entries, while a break below these levels could signal a more pronounced bearish phase. On the upside, a breakout above 156.00 would suggest that the bulls are regaining momentum and aiming for new highs.
Long
by Ochlokrat
USD/JPY Surges Higher:US Economic Strength Fuels Dollar MomentumThe USD/JPY exchange rate continues its upward trajectory, aligning with our forecast as robust US economic data bolsters the dollar. The price movement reflects the strong momentum of the USD, with the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report indicating that commercial traders maintain a strong position, while retail investors are riding the wave. Our initial price target is set at 155.050, and beyond that, we anticipate a potential move towards 158.000, where a notable supply zone exists. Recent US macroeconomic indicators point to significant growth in the fourth quarter. Investor sentiment remains buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts in December. However, the Fed may emphasize the strengthening economic conditions and rising inflation, which could lead to a more hawkish stance in their forward guidance. Conversely, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate levels during Thursday's meeting. This comes after indications of a possible 25 basis point reduction just a week prior. Dovish comments from BoJ officials suggest that the bank will likely postpone any decisions until January to evaluate how US policies under the Trump administration might affect the Japanese economy. Today's economic calendar highlights US Retail Sales, which are projected to reflect strong consumer spending. This, combined with positive services activity reported earlier this week, is likely to curtail any downside pressures on the US dollar, at least until the Fed meeting's outcome. We are optimistic about a continued upward movement in the USD/JPY pair. Our Initial Forecast: ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could rise to the 1st support which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 153.97 1st Support: 152.71 1st Resistance: 154.47 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
USDJPY Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically.
Short
by Tonksovave
BUY OPPORTUNITYBuy: USD/JPY Entry Price: 153.303 Stop Loss (SL): 153.103 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 153.792 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 154.064 Support Level (200 EMA): 153.062 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 Buy position with the expectation that the price will continue rising after touching the 200 EMA support level at 153.062. The entry price of 153.303 indicates the current level is slightly above the support, where a rebound is anticipated. The stop loss (SL) at 153.103 ensures the risk is minimized in case the price doesn't hold above the support. The take profit levels (TP1 and TP2) indicate two stages for profit-taking as the price rises, with TP1 at 153.792 and TP2 at 154.064, allowing for a good risk-to-reward ratio based on your target levels.
Long
by GODOCM
Monthly CLS, Edge of the range, Model 2Monthly CLS, Edge of the range, Model 2 you are welcome to comment with your thoughts and share your charts or questions below, I like any constructive discussion. What is CLS? This company is trading for the biggest investment banks and central banks. They trade over 6.5 trillion daily volume. They are smart money of the all markets. CLS operates in the specific times which will give you huge advantage and precisions to you entries. Focus on that. Its accuracy is amazing. Good luck and I hope this educational post helps to become better trader “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
Short
by Dave-Hunter
Bearish drop?USD/JPY has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 154.23 Why we like it: there is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 154.98 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 88% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 152.52 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
BOJ RATE BRINGS USDJPY TO 145 LONG TERM The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) upcoming interest rate decision could be a pivotal moment for the USD/JPY currency pair, potentially driving it down to the 145 level. Here's why: Narrowing Interest Rate Differential: If the BoJ decides to raise interest rates or signals an intent to do so in the near future, this would narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S. The U.S. has been maintaining higher interest rates compared to Japan's negative or near-zero rates. A reduction in this gap would make holding Japanese Yen (JPY) relatively more attractive, thus strengthening the JPY against the USD. Market Expectations and Sentiment: Markets often react to expectations before they react to actual news. If there's a growing consensus or speculation that the BoJ might tighten policy, traders might preemptively adjust their portfolios, leading to a stronger JPY. Recent posts on X have hinted at expectations of BoJ rate hikes, which could fuel this sentiment. Technical Analysis Indicators: From a technical standpoint, if the BoJ surprises with hawkish comments or actions, this could trigger a sell-off in USD/JPY. The pair has been hovering around key resistance levels, and a policy shift might push it below significant support levels, potentially aiming for 145. Technical analyses often look for signs of a break below current supports, which could be catalyzed by a BoJ decision. Global Economic Conditions: The global economic landscape, including U.S. economic data like employment figures, inflation rates, and Fed policy, will also play a role. If U.S. data suggests a softening economy or if the Fed signals rate cuts, this would weaken the USD against other currencies, including the JPY. Conversely, a dovish BoJ might not lead to as significant a drop, but the current market sentiment seems to be banking on at least some tightening from Japan. Psychological Levels and Market Dynamics: The 145 mark could act as a psychological level for traders, where large volumes of trading might occur due to this round figure. If the BoJ's actions or statements align with market expectations of a policy shift, this could accelerate the move towards this level, especially if there's already momentum in that direction.
Short
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
USDJPY M15 I Bearish Drop Based on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 154.20, a pullback resistance close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 153.61, a pullback support. The stop loss will be placed at 154.71, which is an overlap resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USDJPY Set To Fall! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on USDJPY and concluded the following: The market is trading on 153.70 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 152.34 Safe Stop Loss - 154.61 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals