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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY: Bearish Setup Triggered – Major Reversal Underway?The USD/JPY currency pair reached a pivotal high in July 2024 at 161.951, followed by a significant drop to 139.581. We interpret this as wave 1, unfolding through an A, B, and C corrective countertrend. As of 15 November 2024, we estimate that wave C peaked around the 156.7 level. From here, we project a substantial bearish reversal, with the pair potentially breaking below the 130 level. The invalidation level for this bearish scenario is set at 161.951. Should this resistance hold, traders could anticipate sustained downside momentum. This bearish forecast is supported by technical indicators aligning with broader macroeconomic factors. Key resistance lies at the 156.7 level, with traders advised to monitor this zone closely. Strategic positioning could offer opportunities for profit while mitigating risks, as this move signals a significant market shift.
by VitalDirection
Consolidation Midweek Rally #7 Daily fractal tuesday tradeAfter Friday touched the daily Orderblock formed during election week, I saw the perfect opportunity for a daily fractal trade. I waited for the London session's move, and since price dropped below the Asian range after 12:00 AM New York time, I waited for a 15-minute Orderblock to form and retraced into it. The entry happened around 2:00 AM, but even if I had waited until 2:30 AM, the result would have been the same. I took partial profits and closed the entire trade on Thursday after price hit a Premium Discount (PD) array. Although the playbook suggests Friday often sets the high of the week, I chose not to be greedy and exited early. doing screenshots and publish really helps me a lot :D
by Bufalodorato
Japan GDP beats forecast, yen ends skidThe Japanese yen is in positive territory today, putting the brakes on a four-day skid. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.54 down 0.45% on the day. Japan’s economy expanded by 0.9% in the third quarter, below the revised 2.2% gain in Q2 but above the market estimate of 0.7%. Quarterly, GDP rose 0.2%, lower than the 0.5% gain in Q2 and matching expectations. The GDP numbers were not sparkling but point to a second straight quarter of growth. August economic activity was dampened due to a “megaquake” alert and a fierce typhoon which caused widespread destruction and disruption. Private consumption, which comprises more than half of the country’s GDP showed strong growth of 3.6% y/y, despite the weather issues. This is an encouraging sign for the Bank of Japan, which wants to see inflation rise to demand and consumption. The BoJ has been vague about the timing of a rate hike but the markets are looking at December or January as likely dates. The yen has been wobbly and is down 2.3% in November. If the yen’s downswing continues, the BoJ could decide to hike rates at the Dec. 19 meeting. There is also the possibility of the Ministry of Finance intervening in the currency markets if the yen declines sharply. The US wraps up the week with retail sales for October, with a market estimate of 1.9%. Retails sales eased to 1.7% y/y in September, which was an 8-month low. Monthly, retail sales are expected to inch up to 0.4% from 0.3%. Consumer spending has been generally strong and consumer confidence should improve now that the uncertainty over the US election is over. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 1.5601 and is testing 1.5560. The next support line is 1.5493 1.5668 and 1.5709 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/JPY Potential Trajectory Around Intervention Levels..Whispers of Intervention (again) by the Japanese Govt have come across the board as the USD drives higher. Japanese officials are aware of demand into USD post Trump Election and will be monitoring the weakening of the JPY carefully. We've seen several Japanese interventions in recent history, and anything more would likely deliver a larger fall back to lows to keep price sustainable. It is is more the rate at which the weakening happens, not so much the eventual price. So any data that spurs a further drive into the USD could cause this to happen. Any entries, must be light. I would not take anything seriously long here at all given the position the JPY is in, not least how weak it is already. With intervention chatter on the cards its a recipe for long disaster, even despite rate differentials. S/L may be helpful. Keeping a close eye on news sentiment as we go forward.
Short
by WillSebastian
4
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Fed’sUSDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Fed’s Dovish Outlook and Yen’s Safe-Haven Appeal 15/11/2024 Introduction Today’s outlook for USDJPY leans towards a slight bearish bias, driven by multiple factors that currently favor the Japanese yen (JPY) over the U.S. dollar (USD). With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, increased safe-haven demand for the yen, and recent technical indicators pointing to downside potential, USDJPY appears set for a potential downward trend. This analysis provides key insights into the main drivers shaping the pair’s movement today, offering valuable information for forex traders. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today 1. Dovish Federal Reserve Reducing USD Appeal Recent U.S. economic data, including lower-than-expected inflation and moderate job growth, has led to a more cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve. With expectations for rate hikes now muted, the USD faces downward pressure. The dovish stance has weakened the dollar’s appeal, supporting a bearish bias for USDJPY as investors seek alternatives like the yen. 2. Increased Safe-Haven Demand for Japanese Yen The Japanese yen traditionally serves as a safe-haven currency, attracting investors during times of global uncertainty. With ongoing geopolitical concerns and fluctuating economic conditions in various regions, demand for safe-haven assets like the yen has increased. This factor adds to the downward pressure on USDJPY, as traders shift to more stable options amid market volatility. 3. Stable Policy from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Supporting Yen While the Bank of Japan has maintained its accommodative policy stance, recent signals suggest that any policy adjustments could be dependent on sustained inflation improvements. This stability in BoJ’s approach has reinforced confidence in the yen, contributing to its strength against a softer dollar. The BoJ’s consistent position gives the JPY added support, favoring a bearish bias for USDJPY. 4. Technical Indicators Showing Bearish Momentum From a technical perspective, USDJPY is currently trading below key resistance levels and the 50-day moving average, both of which point to a bearish trend. Indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) show bearish signals, suggesting potential for further downside in the pair. --- Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bearish Outlook Moving Averages and RSI USDJPY remains below its 50-day moving average, indicating continued downward pressure. The RSI is trending lower without reaching oversold territory, which implies room for additional declines without a correction. MACD and Volume Trends The MACD has shown a bearish crossover, supporting expectations for a bearish trend. Volume analysis also reflects a steady increase in selling interest, further aligning with today’s bearish bias for USDJPY. --- Conclusion With the Fed’s dovish outlook, rising safe-haven demand for the yen, and supportive technical indicators, USDJPY is expected to maintain a slight bearish bias today. Traders should stay vigilant to any changes in risk sentiment or key economic data releases, as these factors could impact the pair’s movement. --- SEO Tags: - #USDJPYforecast - #USDJPYanalysis - #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingUSDJPY - #JapaneseYenOutlook - #USDJPYtoday - #USDWeakness - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #USDJPYprediction
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USD/JPY Under Pressure: A Guide to Shorting OpportunitiesMarket Sentiment and Positioning: Monitoring the sentiment in the forex market can provide insights into the overall positioning of traders. If sentiment shifts towards bearishness for the dollar based on the above factors, it could create a self-fulfilling prophecy as more traders take short positions. Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical events can significantly influence currency markets. For instance, any escalation in trade tensions, conflicts, or uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy could lead to a flight to safety, where investors prefer holding the yen over the dollar, thus providing a rationale for shorting USD/JPY. Economic Slowdown in the U.S.: Recent economic indicators from the U.S. may suggest a slowdown, such as declining GDP growth, rising unemployment, or decreasing consumer confidence. If these trends continue, they can lead to a bearish outlook for the USD, prompting traders to short USD/JPY.
Short
by FtradeFXArabic
2
USD/JPY Analysis on the 1-Hour ChartIn this analysis of USD/JPY, we are currently observing an uptrend, with buyers maintaining control of the market. A key support zone, marked in green, has been identified as an area where buyers have previously stepped in to push the price higher. While the price is not currently in this zone, our strategy anticipates a potential pullback to this support level. If the price returns to this green zone, it could attract buyers again, leading to a potential upward movement in line with the prevailing trend. Trading Plan: Long Positions: If the price retraces to the green support zone, look for confirmation of buyer interest, such as bullish candlestick patterns, an increase in buying momentum, or positive divergence. These signals could provide an opportunity to enter long positions. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly below the green support zone to manage risk in case the support fails to hold. Profit Target: The first target would be the previous resistance level or the next significant resistance zone, where sellers may return. This approach allows us to trade with the trend while maintaining a disciplined risk management strategy. Monitoring the price action closely around the green support zone is crucial for executing this idea effectively.
Long
by rebenga93
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 15, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) extended its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fifth consecutive session following the release of Japan's Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday. The USD/JPY pair's upside potential is supported by a strong US Dollar (USD). Traders are also preparing for the release of US retail sales data for October, due later on Friday. Japan's preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter, matching market expectations. On an annualized basis, the country's GDP growth in the third quarter was 0.9%, beating the market consensus forecast of 0.7%, but showing a sharp slowdown from the 2.2% growth recorded in the second quarter. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that he will take appropriate measures against excessive currency fluctuations. Kato emphasized the importance of stable exchange rate movements reflecting economic fundamentals and expressed concern about unilateral sharp fluctuations in the market. Meanwhile, Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said he expects the moderate economic recovery to continue, fueled by rising employment and wages. However, Akazawa also emphasized the need to keep a close eye on potential downside risks to the global economy and volatility in financial and capital markets. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend further?USD/JPY is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 155.74 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 154.20 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 157.71 which is an overlap resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
#001 USDJPY DCAEntered when price came back to the 60sma, and confluence with the stochastics 20,1,1. I will be adding into my losers when price comes back to the pre-marked levels as shown in the chart. Every pip is 0.01cents, and I do not set any stop loss. I am testing this out on my other fool around account but I hope I do not blow it. Warning regarding News Days Do not trade until the news has been released and the market has calmed down, reason being, before news release, price tends to go flat and you will just be wasting your time and energy hoping for price to move in your intended direction or against your intended direction, therefore, exerting your mental capital more than neccesary. Secondly, especially when trading on the minutes time frame, when news get released, there's a high possibility that volatility will take you out. Or, if you do not set any stop loss, it would bring you to the opposite side of the room for over 100pips (for example) and you have to crawl your way back to at least breakeven.
Long
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
1