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U.S. Dollar / Hungarian Forint

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USDHUF trade ideas

USDHUF: Buy and sell signals depending on the 1D MA200.USDHUF is bearish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.886, MACD = -2.380, ADX = 36.722) as it has been on the decline since October 4th. This selling sequence has stopped exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern, with the 1D MA200 holding precisely for five straight days. As long as it holds, it is a buy signal and we are targeting the R1 level (TP = 375.00). If it breaks and closes the 1D candle under it, sell and target the S2 level (TP = 335.60). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
USDHUF Bearish leg within a Channel Up.The USDHUF pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern, currently extending the bearish leg after a Higher Low on Resistance 1 (375.600). The previous bearish leg hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then rebounded, so we are expecting a similar development. As long as the pair is closing the 1D candles above the 1D MA50, we will be bullish, targeting Resistance 2 (381.3500) as part of the next Higher High. If it closes below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and counter with a sell position, targeting 345.700 (Support 2). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
Mirror level increases USD chances for a reboundFor the last nine months, USD/HUF has been in a downtrend erasing all gains made last year. However, I believe it could change in the second half of the year. The currency pair reached the key support level of 340 HUF per USD in April. Since then the USD price has been anchored to the level. Before the spring of 2022, the level of 350 was the key resistance level, the pair knocked on the level in April 2020 and March 2021 (the next month it broke through). This year it is the floor or the mirror level (i.d., the level that previously played the opposite role for the price). By the way, the same mirror-level case with EUR, only the floor is different, it is 370 HUF for EUR. It is more robust than the dollar one. It has prevented four forint deterioration attempts. I think there is a little chance that the USD will break through the support, but a high chance that it will rebound to the first target of 380. On the daily chart, I can estimate that consolidation has done most of its way and the USD bounce may start during the month. But on the weekly and monthly charts, the consolidation may be prolonged and take 4-5 additional months. In case, I am mistaken and the floor brokes, the forint would grow to 320 until this October. From the macroeconomic perspective, my outlook is mixed negative for forint. On one hand, Hungary has the highest rate in the EU, making short of forint to USD or EUR an expensive position. The interest rate is 13%. On the other hand, the rate has been increased to combat high double-digit inflation, which is also the highest in the EU, in the previous autumn, the national bank launched a new one-day deposit rate ECONOMICS:HUINTR . Currently, it is 16%, but a few months ago was 18%. The high deposit rate has motivated private banks to deposit their funds in the national bank. The national bank previously incorporated quantitive easing and bought assets in its portfolio, but nowadays experiences severe capital stress. Due to a decrease in the portfolio and expensive interest costs coming from the expensive deposit rate, its equity has shrunk and become negative! According to EU laws, the Hungarian government must capitalize the bank in 2024. It will cost around 0.5% of countries GDP. News agencies suppose the government will ask the ECB to suspend this regulation and postpone the national bank recapitalization. It happens on the background of a permanent government deficit between 4-6% ECONOMICS:HUGBP . This year they expect around 4%. The economy is in stagflation, and GDP has contracted for the consecutive quarters ECONOMICS:HUGDPQQ . Hungarian consumer is under the pressure of high inflation that devalued their income resulting in the retail sales collapse ECONOMICS:HURSYY . The economic crisis will decrease government incomes ECONOMICS:HUGR , making it impossible to shorten the government deficit, so Hungary will again become active as a borrower ECONOMICS:HUGDG . The high interest rate has affected the money supply. The monetary base ECONOMICS:HUM0 has doubled over the last ten months, while the money supply ECONOMICS:HUM2 has noticeably contracted in real and nominal terms in the amount of 6%, that for the current fiat economy is a rare event. I expect a gradual decrease in the national bank deposit rate. It would induce credit activity and money supply growth and monetary base reduction. An additional supporter of HUF's strength is current account recovery. Hungary is heavily dependent on fossil fuels import. This year TTF ICEEUR:TFM1! drop helps to drastically decrease natural gas expenditures and reduce HUF conversion to foreign currencies. It could save about 5% of countries GDP. Instead of 8% of the current account deficit ECONOMICS:HUCAG , the country would have 3%. Tight relations with the EU, and partly frozen EU funds also negatively affect on Hungarian economy and forint perspectives. Non-EU possible market-moving events: There is only one important: the American economy and the Fed ECONOMICS:USINTR interest rate. American money supply ECONOMICS:USM2 shrinkage may ignite a recession this year, forcing the Fed to decrease the rate. Undoubtedly, the recession would become a shock for the Hungarian economy and forint. I doubt that a drop in the Fed rate and widening interest rate difference will support forint in a short time. Conversely, the shock would drive risk aversion from the developing markets and Hungary, as well as, creating waves of chaotic forint sales. The contraction of the American economy would also motivate the national bank of Hungary to cut its rates critically supporting forint short-sellers activity. The minor risk is natural gas deliveries ECONOMICS:HUNGI from Russia. If something happens with the Ukrainian gas pipeline, the Hungarian economy will suffer, creating forint vulnerable to the consequences. In this case, the Turkish stream may be a backup transportation route for Hungary.
Long
by Nikita_Kalinin
3
USD/HUF - (massive) Long; Highest conviction trade since 2020!This is a no-holds-bared, unmitigated, lock-and-load - and do it now! -, scenario. It does not get any easier than this, not even in the EUR/USD. The Hungarian Forint is staring at a massacre, with immediate effect. (... despite the fact that I applaud Victor Orban, the Hungarian Prime. Nevertheless, he has nothing left to work with. Simultaneously, he (still) is public enemy #1 for the EU - as member states go -, as well as in the eyes of the Biden administration. Now, the only remaining friendly country to Hungary, in Europe, is the Vatican. Orban courageously fought the good fight, all along, but, at least economically: "It's been nice signing with you Koko but ..." - It's over.) p.s. Everything the western media had been spewing about Orban for the past 12 years lacks a single iota of truth. - Bet on it! The guy won 3 democratic elections with 2/3 majority which, even the communist slime-run EU, was forced to admit. I will forgo the long version here and provide in lead words what matters here; - Hungary is a tiny economy (10 million people), one of the smallest EU members; (IBordering with Ukraine and taking in the second largest number of Ukrainian refugees - after Poland - while the Kyiv continues to prosecute it's large, Hungarian minority.) - They built the first wall on their southern border, which the EU never paid for - as they remain obligated to do so but likely never will; - Hungary is 72% agricultural, lacking any and all energy (or other, primary) resources. E.g. It is 100% dependent on Russian energy - regardless how it gets there (indirectly from Russia at a major markup, very likely in the near future.) - Hungary categorically refuses to support the EU madness or to go along with US demands to join the fight for the Ukraine ; (Orban is no friend of Putin but he is also unwilling to crater Hungary's economy on a US/EU whim.) - The Hungarian National Bank recently spent a significant portion of it's reserves to buy gold. The unfolding USD rally will likely temper any related enthusiasm; - The EU is currently (punitively) the portion of EU funds due to Hungary for fiscal 2023; -The Biden administration recently made it a point to go after Hungary (Orban specifically) "to enhance a regime change". (Wasn't that illegal, at least on paper? ...) - Sunday's State of the Union by Orban is a potential call to arms in the West. (One could write a book but) Long story short: The combined Western Alliance is about to lean into Hungary which is most unlikely to result in any economic, monetary or any other, miscellaneous national - or monetary - benefits. Bottom line: There is blood in the water here so, start taking very big bites! - Long!
Long
by Nemo_Confidat
35