USDHUF: clsoed above 50DMAConsolidating in a narrow range.
A breakout is highly likely
T1 @263.50 and T2 @268/270.
Higher swing low finds at 256.
USDHUF trade ideas
Buy USDHUFA nice breakout in USDHUF. A sort of inverted head & shoulder structure has appeared. The day is not over yet, but I guess the close will stay above the breakout line.
If flat Tenkan and Kijun holds, then tgt 270Well done NBH! Well done! The whole world is about to tighten somehow, but they pushed effective front end rate even lower to -0,15 % yesterday. Still, intraday EURHUF dipped almost 1 % from highs. :-D (Sell the news).
But as we have FED on stage today, we should rather focus at USDHUF. The 1 year positive carry for long is around 1,75 % now! Immagine how it would act in case FED gives any minor boost to USD to retrace in general!
Technicals:
- Ichimoku is turning a bit neutral. Price is at/above flat Tenkan and Kijun, which leve means a short term supp/res for the cross.
- Heikin-Ashi gives some noise, but as EWO and haDelta+ still has the positive bias, I rather bought this pair at 256-257 with a 253 initial stop.
- If momentum arrives, USDHUF can quickly test the Kumo or even start a counter trend action to target 270 or the weekly Kijun Sen at 274. For larger swing long position we need more price action confirmation
USDHUFLong position opportunity from 260.86 with a Three Wave structure according to USD expected strength
Reduce USD shorts, not just against HUF, but ag. EM in general!- Ichimoku is bearish, but
- Heikin-Ashi quantification tool haDelta+ shows some early positive divergence: higher low vs lower low in price
- EWO is bearish, but started to tick up in last two days, it may also show positive divergence compared to price.
- Possible bullish wedge isdeveloping
- Price is also very far below the weekly Kijun Sen, which is at 274 now. From time to time market needs consolidation or a bounce towards this longer term equilibrium level.
I think the USD/EM and USD/CEE trades are getting close to their local bottom.
Regarding USDHUF you also have to keep in mind that holding this position has a negative cost carry of annual 1,25 %. National Bank of Hungary is also quite dovish, and wants to see a weaker HUF (against EUR mainly). Until the end of 2017 I can immagine a retest to 265-271 zone.
This post is NOT a call for a long USDHUF trade, as for that chart doesn't qualify. The idea is to close/reduce USDHUF shorts, and probably USD/EM shorts in general.
USDHUF update...USDHUF update. The strategy remains unchanged. In our opinion, time has come to a more stable rise. If the idea is correct, the primary purpose of the current movement is 269.36 HUF. There is a correction level there, so we do not expect any further increase from that level. The correction level again shows a stronger re-adjustment up to $ 254.77. Then, from this rearrangement, the exchange rate can build a wave movement, which can be based on a stronger dollar appreciation. We will return to this later.
USDHUF has reached its bottom.USDHUF has reached its bottom. In our opinion, the 256 Huf correction axis is expected to slow. It can take up to several days. After that, you can reach the second correction level at 269.24 with a bit more momentum. There is still low traffic at this location and a slight increase, a bigger back correction breaks the impetius. After that, we are expecting a much larger increase in trading, which may raise the exchange rate to our target at 283,78 Huf. Here we would close our USDHUF long position.
Usd/hufNice down wedge, target red line, a bit more risky due to a strong downtrend, but good r:r ratio
USD/HUF m15 cumulative vol.On m15 chart can be observe that price brek out from distribution range.
Earlier there were occurred SOT pattern, "spread" candle and false brekout for short.
Actually based on cumulative volume analysis we see that some money were put on long direction.
USD / HUF Long Description in the chart. I see a good potential for USD to rise against Hungarian forint.
USDHUF - Hungarian jobI think this is the currency pair I traded most in my life. Before the internet platforms USDHUF , EURHUF and EURUSD was the only pairs with good spread for us...
USDHUF arrived to an important resistance zone today. I think the USD bottomed today. So I'm going to play this in my home currency also.
I'm using the RSI 13 here. In the last 2 years when it left the oversold territory it moved very fast to the upper direction.
Once it turns it's moving aggressively to the other direction.
You can find this pair between the exotic currency pairs.
USDHUF - D - LONG - TDIThanks to @chartwatchers I discovered this pair and found out that it was a pretty interesting setup for my strategy.
IMO, Arpi is one of the best trader around here and even he teached me lots of knowledge through his ideas.
So, this pair is breaking up to the upside on 4H. So we should have a nice follow up on 4H, then when daily meet the upper band we will get a pullback and the real trade will start after that.
A very long trade, but could be a very good one, with low SL.
Approaching correction trendline looking to buy at low of the correction but be careful as more down is possible. if no buy setup i will wait for breakout and flag before buying
