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EUR/USD: Market Anticipation Ahead of Key Economic ReportsAs the London trading session unfolds on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair is hovering around the 1.0580 mark. Investors are gearing up for significant economic events this week, including the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, set to be released on Wednesday. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, making this week crucial for market participants seeking insights into future monetary policy shifts. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD has shown a lack of substantial movement over the past week, remaining firmly below the 1.0600 resistance level. Traders are closely watching how the currency pair interacts with this barrier, as it could dictate the next direction for the market. With speculation surrounding a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month, Wednesday's inflation figures may be the crucial factor influencing the Fed's decision. Analysts predict that the annual consumer price inflation will slightly increase to 2.7% year-over-year in November, up from 2.6% in October. Moreover, the core inflation rate, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, is anticipated to hold steady at 3.3% year-over-year. Given the current landscape, our strategy is to remain on the sidelines as we await the CPI data on Wednesday and the Unemployment Claims report on Thursday. While our overall bias leans bearish, we believe it is prudent to refrain from taking any positions until the price potentially approaches a significant demand zone. This approach allows for a more informed entry that aligns with market developments. In summary, the EUR/USD is at a critical juncture as investors anticipate key economic reports that could have lasting effects on the currency pair's trajectory. With the market sentiment leaning toward caution, all eyes will be on the data releases this week. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Is EurUsd's correction over?In my previous posts about EUR/USD, I discussed the potential for an upside correction following the break below the 1.05 support level, the drop to 1.0330, and the subsequent reversal. I suggested that this upward movement could potentially push the price toward the 1.0670 resistance zone. Indeed, the pair did rise, reaching an intraday high of 1.0628 during Friday's NFP event. However, the day ended with a downside move, leaving a red candle with a long wick on the daily chart. The medium-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. This, combined with the overlapping structure from the recent low, clearly indicates that we are not witnessing the start of a bullish trend but rather a corrective phase. The key question now is whether this correction has concluded. To confirm, we would need to see a break back below the 1.05 level. With this in mind, if the pair revisits Friday's high, I plan to sell, placing a stop loss above 1.07 and targeting the 1.0450 support level.
by Mihai_Iacob
7
1211 Waiting for ECB to confirm a long term directionHello traders, Whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points depends on several factors, including current economic data, inflation outlook, market expectations, and policymakers' concerns about economic growth and financial stability. 1. Market Expectations and Current Economic Background - According to LSEG Refinitiv data, the market expects an 81% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while the expectation for a 50 basis point cut is only 19%. This indicates that the market generally believes the ECB is more inclined towards a moderate rate cut rather than taking more aggressive measures. - The main challenges facing the European economy currently include slowing economic growth, easing inflation pressures, and fluctuations in energy prices. These factors may prompt the ECB to take action to support economic recovery, but a 50 basis point cut may be seen as too aggressive, especially when inflation has not fully returned to target. 2. Possibility of a 50 Basis Point Cut If the ECB chooses to cut rates by 50 basis points, it would be a bold move that exceeds market expectations, potentially indicating the following: - The ECB's concerns about economic growth are greater than the general market perception, suggesting a need for more substantial easing measures to stimulate the economy. - By implementing a larger rate cut, the ECB may be trying to send a strong signal to the market, demonstrating its commitment to supporting the economy. - However, such a move could also provoke negative market reactions, such as increased volatility in bond yields or further pressure on the euro exchange rate. 3. More Likely Scenario: A 25 Basis Point Cut - Historically, the ECB tends to adjust its policies gradually to avoid causing excessive disruption to the market. - A 25 basis point cut aligns with market expectations and can smoothly convey policy intentions while retaining flexibility for future adjustments. 4. **My View** - The likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is significantly higher, as it aligns with market expectations and avoids unnecessary volatility in financial markets. - If the ECB opts for a 50 basis point cut, it may indicate a more pessimistic assessment of recession risks, but this choice could also entail greater policy risks. Technically, EURUSD is testing the weekly support and moving beneath the EMAs. As long as it breaking through the support, a long-term bearish trend for EURUSD is pretty sure! GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
Short
by FUNTRADER-Vera
Bullish Opportunity: Buy Setup at support Ahead of Key CPIWe are looking to buy at 1.050 area Key Levels: Entry: 1.050 (support level) Take Profit (TP): 1.05979 Stop Loss (SL): Adjust to match your preferred risk-to-reward ratio. 1.045 is a reasonable SL The price is expected to find support near 1.050, with the potential for a bullish rebound toward the resistance zone at 1.05979. Bespoke resistance lies further up at 1.064 providing longer-term bullish potential if this level breaks. Caution: This trade setup assumes that the US CPI data due tomorrow will come out weaker than expected, which could favor a bullish move in this pair. Monitor the news closely before committing to this trade, as stronger-than-expected CPI figures could invalidate the setup.
Long
by Eleazarahmath
Dollar Weakens Amid Tight U.S. Election Race and rate cuts Dollar Weakens Amid Tight U.S. Election Race and Upcoming Fed Decision The U.S. dollar dropped as the latest polls indicate no clear leader in the presidential race, reducing bets on a Trump victory. Treasury futures rose, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid the uncertainty. Citigroup strategists suggest that a Trump victory could see the dollar rally by 3%, while a Harris victory could result in a 2% decline. This highlights the significant impact the election outcome could have on the USD. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis point rate cut, adding to market volatility already heightened by the election. Traders are keeping a close eye on early results from swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania for insights into the potential election outcome and its implications for the financial markets. Source: Information derived from Bloomberg
by Eleazarahmath
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Faces ResistanceMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Faces Resistance EUR/USD extended losses and traded below the 1.0550 support. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0635 resistance and declined against the US Dollar. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0545 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.0635 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0550 support against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The pair declined below the 1.0520 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0500 level. A low was formed at 1.0498 and the pair is now consolidating losses. The pair is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped. There was a minor increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0594 swing high to the 1.0498 low. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.0545 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0545 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the 1.0570 zone or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0594 swing high to the 1.0498 low. The main resistance sits near the 1.0590 level. An upside break above the 1.0590 level might send the pair toward the 1.0635 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0675 level. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.0520. The next major support is near the 1.0500 level. A downside break below the 1.0500 support could send the pair toward the 1.0445 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair continues to trade below the 34 and 89 EMA levels, signaling a short-term bearish trend. Despite attempts at consolidation in recent sessions, the pair remains under pressure, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, and diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The U.S. dollar has extended its rally for the third consecutive day, with the Dollar Index (DXY) climbing past the 106.60 mark. This persistent strength has added significant downward pressure on EUR/USD, leaving the pair vulnerable to further declines as market dynamics unfold. From a technical perspective, traders should focus on two key resistance levels. These areas could provide optimal entry points for positioning, with the primary targets set at well-defined support zones. Monitoring price action around these levels will be crucial to aligning strategies with the prevailing market trend. Stay disciplined and vigilant as you navigate today’s trading opportunities. Wishing you success and profitable trades!
Short
by Trader-Briannnn
Head and Shoulders Pattern in EURUSDEUR/USD Analysis (Timeframe: To be determined): Head and Shoulders Pattern Detected, Buy Signals Generated A head and shoulders pattern has been identified on the EUR/USD chart. However, contrary to the typical bearish implication, buy signals have been generated, indicating a potential bullish reversal. Key Indicators: - Head and Shoulders Pattern: A clear head and shoulders formation has been detected. - Buy Signals: Generated, indicating a potential bullish reversal. - Trend Analysis: Potential bullish reversal. Key Levels: - Resistance: 1.08300 - Support: 1.05200 - Target: 1.09250 Recommendation: Consider long positions or bullish strategies to capitalize on the potential upside movement. Please note that forex markets are highly volatile, and prices can change rapidly. Please mind your own money management 🙏 Best Wishes Tom 😎
Long
by Tom_Trades_670
1
EURUSD Next possible moveSAXO:EURUSD Title "EUR/USD Intraday Analysis: Sell Bias Persists | Dollar Dominance Resumes" Market Context "EUR/USD remains under pressure as the U.S. dollar regains strength amid hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. Lingering concerns over Eurozone economic growth further weigh on the pair, favoring a bearish bias." Technical Analysis *"Today’s sell entry is supported by the following bearish signals: Trend Structure: The pair continues to form lower highs and lower lows, confirming the downtrend. EMA Dynamics: Price trades below the 20 and 50 EMAs, signaling sustained bearish momentum. RSI: Falling toward 40, highlighting increased selling pressure. MACD: Negative histogram bars are expanding, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Key Levels: Support: 1.0480 (intraday), 1.0450 (next key level). Resistance: 1.0520 (intraday), 1.0550 (critical barrier). A move above 1.0550 would negate the bearish bias."* News Context "Upcoming: U.S. ISM Services PMI data could provide fresh directional cues. Previous: Friday’s strong NFP report boosted the dollar, keeping EUR/USD under pressure." Call to Action "Will EUR/USD continue its slide, or could support levels trigger a reversal? Share your thoughts and strategies below!"
Short
by RBSBALA
EURUSD Trading Idea EUR/USD dipped 0.2% on Tuesday, marking its third straight decline as it approaches the key 1.0500 level. The Euro’s recent bullish momentum is fading, with traders shifting to a cautious stance ahead of two major events: US CPI Data (Wednesday): A pivotal release ahead of the Fed's final 2024 meeting. Inflation is expected to tick up to 2.7% YoY (from 2.6%), with core CPI holding steady at 3.3%. Any signs of stalled progress could dash hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18, fueling USD volatility. ECB Rate Decision (Thursday): The ECB is widely anticipated to deliver another quarter-point rate cut. Forecasts suggest the Main Refinancing Operations Rate will be trimmed to 3.15% (from 3.4%), and the Deposit Facility Rate is expected to drop to 3.0% (from 3.25%). EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Entry Opportunity with SMC and Fibonacci Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the key zone between the 0.71 and 0.79 Fibonacci levels is shaping up as a critical area of interest. Following the creation of a fair value gap at the last high, the price is now testing the 50% Fibonacci level, setting the stage for a potential trade setup. Trade Setup: Entry Point: 1.05520 (aligned with the 0.75 Fibonacci level) Stop Loss: 1.05697 (just above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for added risk protection) Take Profit: 1.04990 (targeting below the fair value gap for optimal risk-to-reward) Risk/Reward Insights: This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 2.98. By risking 17.7 pips to gain 53 pips, you're maximizing reward relative to risk. Disclaimer: Trading carries significant risks, and it’s essential to practice strict risk management. Always trade with a clear plan, use stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—ensure you understand the risks before making any decisions. Follow for more trading ideas, strategies, and insights to level up your trading game!
Short
by InwardTrader