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U.S. Dollar / Euro

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USDEUR trade ideas

Idea on a chartEuro was off fractionally this week with EUR/USD defending a rebound off yearly trend support. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the focus into December is on this recovery with the bulls eyeing a critical pivot zone just higher. Battle lines drawn on the Euro weekly technical chart. In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that, “A three-week plunge takes EUR/USD into downtrend support and a major pivot zone- risk for downside exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of Euro short-exposure / lower protective stops
by EZIO-FX
EURUSD 8/12/24This week, with Euros to the U.S. dollar, we’ve seen price pull back to the highest area highlighted in last week’s markup. It took out the liquidity high we placed below it while also mitigating some of our longer-term points of liquidity. We’ve now identified several points of liquidity lower down, one being at the base of the last upward move. This move originated from the area we highlighted as a potential zone for bullish price action. Despite the significant upward movement, our higher time frame bias maintains a bearish narrative, indicating that money is still flowing out of this market, pushing prices lower. As shown on the chart with the indicator applied, we are now on the 4-hour timeframe. A "money-out" area has been formed, and we are watching for price action to follow this trend, targeting the liquid lows we have marked. This setup points to a sell opportunity at the start of this market session, with the expectation that price will continue to move bearish throughout the week. Stick to your risk and follow your trading plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
Weekly Analysis - EUR/USD"On Monthly: It seems ZigZag bouncing between 1.1200 and 1.0500 Psychological Support & Resistant are getting over and moving down. If FED doesn't lower the interest rate this month, the Bearish move will continue through January due to Trump presidency and change in GOV. All three EMA, 200, 50 and 20 are nicely Bearish. It trying to break through 1.0500 and keep the Bearish momentum. oppositely, it may create another Morning Star formation. -- On Weekly: It broke through Daily Bullish trendline and broke through 1.0500 Historical and Psychological number and it's bouncing up to most likely test the trend line again for potentially further Bearish move. All three EMA 200, 50 and 20 are Bearish as well. It seems price is racing up to trendline and/or 1.08000 Resistant, if we consider last week Doji a Bullish move. --On Daily: As I predicted last week, the formation for Inverted head & Shoulders for reversing Bearish move for a while. Although, all three EMA 200, 50 and 20 are Bearish as of now. We have to see how long EMAs will hold Bearish status. The neck of this Inverted Head & Shoulders is holding at 1.0600. -- On Hourly: It seems it going to touch 1.0600one more time. If it breaks through and confirms, Bullish move will get started. All three EMA's are below the price and Bullish. "
Long
by Ha-Lion
EURUSDWhen analyzing EUR/USD on the daily timeframe, we can identify a strong demand zone that has remained intact. Each time price taps into this zone, it drives to the upside. To gain insight into the internal price action, I’ve moved to the lower timeframe, where we’ve observed a bounce off the higher timeframe demand zone, along with a change of character. This shift indicates that buyers have stepped into the market, and price has since been printing higher highs. With this bullish momentum, some inefficiency has been left in the market. Below this inefficiency lies a demand zone that swept the previous lows and broke structure, confirming its validity. Above the inefficiency, we can see resting liquidity that needs to be swept. I’m waiting for price to take out this liquidity, fill the inefficiency, and then push to the upside, continuing the overall bullish trend. Additionally, using our Fibonacci tool, we are in the golden zone for entries, which also aligns with a discounted zone, further supporting our long bias.
Long
by EzratradesFX
EUR/USD / less Bearish, more Bullish ?!? Hello traders ,what do you think about EUR/USD? There are two main options for trading, I personally expect the price to rise at least to the specified level 1.080. The other option is that the upward correction at 4h is over and we look for continuation of the bearish movement with the aim of a new monthly LL in the direction of 1.02 and below. We've had two good bullish weeks, I think an upside is the more likely development scenario. If you think this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.
by PpetroeR
Wave Five Down Ahead!!!I identify a clear double ZZ(zigzag) pattern rising from the low made on November 22 of this year. There are multiple reasons to believe the move is over we are in for a downtrend. From a momentum standpoint, we can see that the second swing-up in this move failed to exceed or even match the one of the first. The slope of the second swing is also more slanted to side, indicating a lose of buying pressure, we'd ideally like to see the price pick up momentum as we move in the second swing in a move. For the most part, the price has moved above the trend line traced connecting the lows of the move, but we have to notice we did have a slip below for a few hours before resuming above it. A move and close below this line at Sunday open will throw more solidity to this scenario. Yes this pattern can also be read to be interpreted in a bullish way if we think that it might be creating a sequence of ones and twos before third move explodes up but given the trend we are traling, which is bearish, and the other factors mentioned, I lean into the bearish scenario. Finally, the timing of this continuation down can be tricky but I believe that the volatility on Friday (likely due to NFP) nudged the price to come and take the liquidity stuck at around the 1.06315 area as highlighted by the orange circle, as well as inducing a lot of buying by breaking above those corrective levels. All that said, nothing matter if we see price break above 1.063 which was the high set on Friday. Hsppy Trading :)
by HydraFinance
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for EURUSD is below: The market is trading on 1.0566 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 1.0523 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.0592 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength: - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated strong upward momentum during this week's trading session. It retreated to our designated support level, Mean Support at 1.049. Then, it bounced back vigorously to retest the significant resistance level, Mean Resistance, marked at 1.060, which was reached in the previous week's price action. The Eurodollar appears poised to move toward the target value of Inner Currency Rally 1.072 after surpassing the critical resistance level at 1.060. However, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the support level at 1.049 before continuing its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter