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U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc

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USDCHF trade ideas

USDCHF - Looking for a weaker franc?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. 1. U.S. Budget Deficit: The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit for November reached $367 billion, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the previous year. This rise is primarily attributed to calendar adjustments in benefit payments, which led to approximately $80 billion in additional government spending compared to November 2023. 2. BNP Paribas on Trump’s Tariff Policies: BNP Paribas believes market analysts have underestimated the implications of Trump’s tariff policies and need to take them more seriously. The bank predicts that Trump will implement a significant portion of his tariff threats, even if not entirely. BNP Paribas anticipates these policies will cause a permanent shock to consumer prices in the U.S. while having a temporary effect on inflation. Additionally, the bank expects the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate to remain at 4.5% in 2025, with the U.S. dollar likely to strengthen further, particularly against the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar. 3. Swiss National Bank Cuts Interest Rates: On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut its interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the largest rate reduction in a decade. This move was aimed at staying ahead of potential rate cuts by other central banks and curbing the rising value of the Swiss franc.Most economists had predicted a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points. This reduction represents the most significant decrease in borrowing costs since the SNB’s emergency rate cut in January 2015. With inflationary pressures subsiding, the SNB opted for further monetary easing. Inflation in Switzerland fell to 0.7% in November and has remained within the bank’s target range of 0–2% since May 2023. The 0.5% rate cut aims to further stimulate the economy and boost labor market activity. 4. Remarks by SNB President: Thomas Schlegel, president of the Swiss National Bank, stated that the bank considers all aspects of the franc’s value, not just its exchange rate against the euro. While acknowledging the effectiveness of negative interest rates, Schlegel emphasized that the SNB does not favor them but would resort to such measures again if necessary, as they have helped reduce the franc’s attractiveness. 5. Managing the Swiss Franc’s Value: The Swiss franc, known as a global safe-haven currency, often appreciates during periods of market volatility, prompting the SNB to invest significant effort in managing its value. However, UBS has noted that this issue is no longer a major concern: “While the franc has strengthened against the euro, it has weakened against the U.S. dollar, maintaining a relatively stable trade-weighted exchange rate.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
Swiss National Bank cuts by half-point, Swissy dipsThe Swiss franc is down on Thursday following the Swiss National Bank rate announcement. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8880, up 0.43% 80on the day at the time of writing. Today's Swiss National Bank meeting was live, with the market uncertain as whether the SNB would cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. In the end, the central bank opted for a jumbo 50-bp cut, bringing the cash rate to 0.50%. The driver for the today's oversized cut was the November inflation report, which came in at -0.1% for a second straight month. Inflation hasn't posted a gain in six months and the SNB is concerned that inflation could fall below the 0%-2% target. The 50-bp cut marks the SNB's biggest rate reduction in 10 years. In its statement, the Bank pointed to lower-than-expected inflation, risks over US economic policy and political uncertainty in Europe. The statement was somewhat dovish, noting that "the forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty". Today's rate cut marks the fourth reduction this year. The SNB has been aggressive in its easing cycle, with the twin goals of avoiding deflation and combating the Swiss franc's appreciation. The SNB does not want a highly-valued Swiss franc as this hurts the critical export sector. The central bank implemented a negative rate policy until mid-2022 and the SNB has not ruled out a return to negative rates. After the meeting, SNB President Martin Schlegel said that today's 50-bp cut had reduced the probability of negative rates. The SNB also released its updated inflation forecast at today's meeting. The September inflation report was revised downwards, with a forecast of 1.1% in 2024 and 0.3% in 2025. USD/CHF has pushed above resistance at 0.8860 and is testing resistance at 0.8879. Above, there is resistance at 0.8903 0.8836 and 0.8817 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/CHF price action: bullish momentum after SNB decisionThe Swiss National Bank's unexpected decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.5%, the largest reduction since January 2015, has sent the Swiss franc to its lowest value against the US dollar since November 2022. These aggressive cuts aim to bolster Switzerland's economy amidst rising unemployment and global uncertainties by making borrowing more affordable. Meanwhile, the USD/CHF pair has surged above 0.89019, driven by the franc's depreciation and the broader positive sentiment towards the US dollar, which remains strong despite a slight dip. The Federal Reserve's cautious optimism concerning US inflation and a robust labor market suggests a gradual pace of future rate cuts, supporting the dollar's strength relative to the franc. In the short term, if the SNB maintains its accommodative strategy while the Fed takes a measured approach, the USD/CHF's bullish momentum could persist. Traders should stay attuned to upcoming economic data and central bank communications, which will provide crucial insights into monetary policy shifts affecting the USD/CHF exchange rate.
by tastyfx
USDCHF USDCHF - Bullish Above 0.88000 Current Price: 0.88365 Action: Bullish above 0.88000 Target Levels: 0.8976 0.9093 0.9178 Reason: Price Action: USDCHF has been showing bullish momentum, holding above key support at 0.88000. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is currently in the bullish zone (above 50), indicating upward momentum. MACD: The MACD is above the signal line and showing increasing positive momentum. Trend Confirmation: The pair is in an overall uptrend, as confirmed by higher highs and higher lows. Support at 0.88000 The level at 0.88000 is a key support, and a breakout above this level opens the path for the mentioned targets. Note: Always use proper risk management.
Long
by Al-Reshad
UPDATE ON USD/CHF TRADEUSD/CHF 1H - Hey everyone just back with an update on the trade I sent out last week, I wanted to fill you in with how its performing up to now and how you could look to manage it should you still be in. As you can see price has played out perfectly up to now, continuing to provide us with bullish structure. Price has not even taking us into a drawdown and has shown no signs of reversing to the downside. This trade is currently running + 83 pips. (+ 6%) 6RR For those of you who are still in on this trade, well done. I would look to take a partial if you have not done already this is to bank profits from the running trade. Also look to apply safety measures. As always its important we manage the running trades we are in to maximise profits and minimise losses, trades like this only need to be found once a week to generate brilliant returns in a month. Any questions drop me a message or comment below.
Long
by Lukegforex
#USDCHF 4HUSDCHF 4-Hour Analysis The USDCHF pair is forming a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, aligning with a trendline resistance level. This confluence of bearish signals suggests potential downside momentum if the price breaks below the neckline of the pattern. The trendline resistance strengthens the case for a sell position. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Head & Shoulders and Trendline Resistance Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Sell upon a confirmed break below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. Traders should look for confirmation such as bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing) or indicators like RSI showing bearish divergence. Place stop-loss orders above the trendline resistance to manage risk effectively. Profit targets can be set at lower support levels or based on the measured move from the head and shoulders pattern.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER