USDCAD, Bearish Divergence, Double TopRejection from weekly resistance
Bearish divergence
Double top formation
Reversal Expected
Short sell at CMP
SL at top of Resistance
USDCAD trade ideas
USDCAD - Trump gave a new trend to the dollar!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the supply zone and sell within that range with the appropriate risk reward. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions.
Following the announcement of Donald Trump’s election victory, the U.S. dollar has risen against almost every currency globally. Markets are not only preparing for Trump’s presidential win but also foresee a Republican-controlled Congress, which is crucial for the incoming president’s ability to implement policy changes through the U.S. government.
Ahead of the October 23 monetary policy meeting, officials at the Bank of Canada believed that inflationary pressures were on a downward trend and further tightening of monetary policy was unnecessary. They considered a 0.25% rate cut, though strong consensus emerged for holding off based on economic data observed since July.
Officials noted that a rate cut would require time to sufficiently impact per capita consumer spending and counterbalance the overall consumption decline driven by slower population growth. They agreed to continue normalizing their balance sheet through maturing bonds.
According to informed sources, OPEC+ has reached a preliminary agreement to postpone an increase in oil production for December. This agreement includes countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, which have decided to extend their voluntary oil production adjustments until the end of December 2024.
One key factor weakening the Canadian dollar is the country’s economic challenges. The Canadian housing market is facing serious difficulties due to rising interest rates, and the decline in demand for new home purchases has dimmed future prospects for the market. Additionally, slower population growth, largely dependent on government immigration policies, is negatively impacting the economy. Nonetheless, some hope that China’s economic stimulus efforts and rising natural commodity prices might support the Canadian dollar, though these factors carry their own risks.
BlackRock has stated that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are overly optimistic. The bank cited the following reasons:
U.S. third-quarter GDP data show that consumers remain the main driver of economic growth. The average monthly job creation over the past three months has been 104,000 jobs, a healthy rate, which is likely to rise considering hiring pauses due to storm disruptions.
USDCAD TODAYStill up for me.
I take one order now and I add one more if price go down.
SL and TP is add
USDCAD SHORT BIAS-Weekly: Price has reached a resistance that has not been broken since 2020 and it's currently rejecting. Weekly closure will be crucial to see to determine trend bias and have extra confirmation for downside. Currently forming an engulfing candle
-Daily: Bearish. Engulfing candle which rejected psych level 1.39500
-4h: Bearish. Currently rejecting Area Of Interest. Wedge formation with break and retest.
Short USDCAD on Major multi year resistanceSell set up USDCAD on a multi-year consolidation period with price rejection on major resistance at 1.39383. Risk rewards also seem favourable for a sell set up with SL being placed above the swing high at 1.40023 and the maximum profit target at previous major support at 1.33334 area.
The Best Level to short USDCAD TP +250/+500 pips🔸Hello traders, let's review the daily chart for USDCAD today. Trading
near premium prices of the multiyear range, established in 2023.
Currently risk/reward is shifting in bears favor, so it's recommended
to look for sell side setups in this market.
🔸Range highs set at 3800, premium prices overhead at 3880 3960
range lows set at 3300 and premium prices below at 3140 3240
current bid is 3885.
🔸Recommended strategy for USDCAD traders: focus on short selling any
rips/rallies near market price. price is currently trading near premium levels
and is maxed out already, limited upside. TP1 bears +250 TP2 bears +500 pips keep in mind this is a swing trade setup so naturally will take more time to complete / hit both targets. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Will USDCAD Fill Its Gap?USDCAD, like many other currency pairs on the USD, has still not closed its NWOG. On the contrary: in view of today's US elections, the exchange rate has fallen further.
With the political decision imminent and important support areas reached, there is now a favorable opportunity for a long entry in the USDCAD targeting the gap close.
USDCAD H4 LONG TERM Buying TRADE IDEAHello Traders
In This Chart Usdcad HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today USDCAD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (USDCAD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on USDCAD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Channel
USD/CAD Weekly Technical AnalysisTrendline and Support Levels:
The USD/CAD pair is following a long-term uptrend, as highlighted by the purple ascending trendline. This trendline has acted as dynamic support since 2021, with multiple price bounces validating its strength.
Key support levels are marked at 1.33647, 1.31234, and 1.29767. These levels represent potential areas where buyers could re-enter if the price retraces, providing strong zones of interest for long-term traders.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance is observed around 1.38439, which aligns with recent price rejection. This level has historically acted as both support and resistance, making it an important area to watch.
The critical resistance is located at 1.40130. A breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum, potentially leading to a new high.
Volume Profile Analysis:
The volume profile (visible range) shows a high concentration of trading volume around the 1.33647 level, indicating a significant area of price acceptance. This zone could act as strong support if the price moves down, as traders may view it as a fair value level.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI appears to be in a neutral range, hovering near the 50 mark, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, it would be prudent to monitor RSI for any breakout above 70 or drop below 30, which could signal potential trend reversals or continuation.
Volume Analysis:
Volume has shown occasional spikes, reflecting heightened activity during key price movements. However, recent weeks have seen average volume levels, suggesting a steady interest from traders without excessive volatility.
Outlook and Strategy:
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 1.40130 could trigger further upside momentum, making higher levels a target for long-term bulls. Watch for confirmation through strong bullish candlesticks and increased volume.
Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to hold above 1.38439 and closes below the trendline, it could signal a reversal or consolidation phase, with 1.33647 as a key downside target. Traders should watch for bearish signals like a break below the trendline and potential RSI divergence.
Conclusion: USD/CAD is currently trading near a significant resistance level, testing the strength of the ongoing uptrend. Traders should watch for a breakout above 1.40130 to confirm bullish momentum, while a break below the trendline could suggest consolidation or a potential reversal. Patience is advised as the price approaches these key levels.
USDCAD SELL SETUP !!“The biggest risk is not “The biggest risk is not taking a risk. In a world that’s changing really quickly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks.” – Mark Zuckerberg
Let the market do its thing. If this hrly candle closes bearish with the body below the resistance line . The first retracement will be an inducement and keep up the shorts.
Flow with the trend , dont catch knives and try to predict. Let the market do its thing .
USDCAD - BROKEN CHANNEL !Hello Traders !
The USDCAD reached a strong resistance level.
The price formed an ascending channel.
At the moment, The support line is broken🔥
So, I expect a bearish move📉
________________
TARGET: 1.37550🎯
USD/CAD Analysis: Potential Retracement on Supply Area ContactThe USD/CAD has recently moved into a key supply area, prompting a watchful stance for a potential retracement. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, there’s a clear divergence between retail and institutional sentiment: while retail traders remain bullish on USD/CAD, institutional investors, or "smart money," have started building bearish positions, indicating a possible shift in momentum.
Seasonal Forecast and Technical View
Seasonal analysis suggests an increased probability of bullish price action in USD/CAD, but given our current position in a supply area, the focus is on a corrective retracement rather than a sustained reversal. This is especially relevant for short-term traders looking to capitalize on minor pullbacks.
From a technical perspective, USD/CAD’s proximity to supply suggests a temporary exhaustion of the recent uptrend, allowing for a pullback within a controlled risk-reward framework. A tight stop loss is recommended here to protect against potential reversals should bullish seasonal tendencies overpower short-term retracement forces.
Trading Strategy
With a setup offering a strong risk-to-reward ratio, traders might consider a short position on USD/CAD with a focus on the retracement rather than a deep decline. Monitoring economic releases and potential changes in institutional positioning will be essential in determining whether the supply area holds, as well as to gauge the sustainability of any bearish retracement.
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Potential Entry for USD/CADAs we reach an area of interest where price rejection has happen on 4 occasion on the Weekly timeframe, lookin for an entry for a short at the 1.39118
This is not financial advise
Please message if you have a different perspective, I am open for conversation
USDCAD: Classic Bearish Reversal SetupObserve the recent price action of 📉USDCAD.
After testing a major horizontal resistance, the price began consolidating within a narrow range. It subsequently bounced and broke below both the support line of an ascending parallel channel and the horizontal range support.
This breakdown suggests a potential further decline. Key target levels to watch are 1.3874 and 1.3858.
USD/CAD:Dynamics Ahead of the US Election BOC DecisionsDynamics Ahead of the US Election and Bank of Canada Rate Decisions
As the United States approaches its pivotal presidential election, the US Dollar (USD) is experiencing downward pressure. This uncertainty is impacting the broader market sentiment, leading traders to adopt a cautious stance. However, the upward trajectory of US Treasury yields may provide a buffer against further declines in the dollar’s value. Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the dollar's strength against six major currencies, is trading around 103.80. At this moment, the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds stand at 4.17% and 4.30%, respectively, indicating investor confidence in longer-term government debt.
Turning to Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is gearing up for its final monetary policy meeting of the year in December, where a significant rate cut is widely anticipated. BoC Governor has signaled the possibility of a reduction by as much as 50 basis points (bps). This potential lowering of interest rates could influence the Canadian dollar's valuation and the overall economic landscape.
From a technical perspective, the market shows signs of a bullish seasonal trend; however, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report suggests the potential for a price drop, particularly in alignment with identified supply zones. As we navigate through these evolving conditions, the outcome of the US election will likely have profound implications for currency movements and economic policies in the coming days. Traders will need to stay vigilant as these developments unfold, shaping market dynamics in both the US and Canada.
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USD/CAD Analysis: Potential Reversal at Key ResistanceUSD/CAD has been in a long-term uptrend, recently approaching a critical resistance zone. Price action suggests a potential shift from bullish to bearish due to the formation of a harmonic pattern that implies a possible corrective move. However, given the strength of the current uptrend, any pullback could be temporary, presenting future buying opportunities around key support levels.
Technical Indicators
TDI Divergence: Multiple bearish divergences on the TDI indicator highlight potential weakening in upward momentum, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term correction.
Moving Averages: The MAs are positively sloped, supporting the medium- to long-term uptrend, but price has moved significantly away from them, suggesting a higher probability of a near-term pullback.
Trade Strategy: Sell at Resistance
Entry: 1.391 zone
Stop Loss (SL): 1.4000
Take Profit (TP): 1.36970
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.5
Rationale: The proximity to key resistance, combined with bearish divergences, supports a potential corrective move.
USD/CAD displays mixed signals of continuation and correction. Short-term indicators suggest a weakening, but the long-term uptrend remains intact. The most robust strategy here is a sell at resistance, backed by harmonic patterns and divergence signals. After a potential pullback, buying on corrections could be advantageous if the price resumes its uptrend. Monitoring technical developments and price action on lower timeframes is essential for timing entries.
Disclaimer: The information provided does not constitute investment advice.
USDCAD VOLATILITY TRADEOn the 12 months chart, price show an impulsive bearish move that took 6 years o complete. In tandem with price action, the bullish correction that is currently active has taken 14 years. Price is yet to contact a fresh long-term supply sitting at 1.544.
On the monthly and weekly charts, the structure is still the same. Price is seeking to contact a short term fresh supply at 1.44.
On the daily chart, price continues to form new highs. On the short term (daily), we are looking at a bearish price correction fueled by the US election volatility. Price is expected to correct towards the 1.35-1.32 range thereafter resuming the original long term bullish price correction.
5-11 Probeleg USDCAD 5-11: despite the elections this pair still shows a downtrend. the swing that the pair has been making since July 2024 with a top reached in August bottom in September and a new top early this year, the pair seems to have found its way down again. A small sell was executed at 1.388.
05.11.24 Morning Forecast (Election Outlook)Pairs on Watch -
FX:USDCAD
FX:EURAUD
OANDA:JP225USD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
USDCAD Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCAD for a buying opportunity around 1.38800 zone, USDCAD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.38800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDCAD: Classic Bearish ReversalTake a look at the price movement of 📉USDCAD.
Following a test of a significant horizontal resistance level, the price began to consolidate in a tight range.
It then rebounded and broke through both a support line of an upward parallel channel and a horizontal range support.
This suggests that the pair may continue to decline. Target levels to watch for are 1.3874 and 1.3858.
The Canadian Dollar: What Every Forex Trader Needs To KnowThe Canadian Dollar: What Every Forex Trader Needs To Know
Among the major currencies covering the largest part of forex trading volume is the Canadian dollar (CAD), colloquially known as the "Loonie" due to the image of a loon bird on the back of the C$1 coin. This article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the CAD, a brief overview of its historical journey, and the factors driving it in the forex market today.
Understanding the Canadian Dollar
Over the years, the CAD has weathered fluctuations and policy shifts, impacting not only its value but also its influence in the world of finance.
Originally, Canada used the British pound as its official currency, but it was gradually replaced by the Canadian dollar, which has been the country’s official currency since 1858.
Following the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, Canada allowed its currency to fluctuate freely between 1950 and 1962, a period that culminated in a significant devaluation event. Subsequently, Canada adopted a fixed exchange rate until 1970, at which point mounting inflation pressures prompted the government to return to a floating currency system.
Canadian Economy
Canada boasts a stable and resource-rich economy that is also well diversified, yet when examining Canada's economic landscape, it's crucial to take into account its significant involvement in commodities. Canada is a significant producer and exporter of petroleum, minerals, wood products, and grains.
Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Catalysts
Various factors influence the value of the Loonie in the forex market. Here, we will explore some of the primary catalysts.
Monetary Policy Decisions Impact CAD Predictions
Interest rate announcements by the Bank of Canada usually take place eight times a year on predetermined dates. Higher interest rates often attract foreign investment in the economy, leading to an appreciation of the CAD's value. Following two consecutive pauses, the Bank of Canada surprisingly increased its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points on June 7th, 2023, reaching 4.75 per cent. This decision was primarily prompted by a rise in inflation to 4.4 per cent, marking the first uptick in 10 months. Notably, the EUR/CAD exchange rate exhibited a pronounced reaction to this event.
Economic Data
Key economic indicators encompass the publication of GDP figures, retail sales data, industrial production statistics, inflation rates, trade balances, and jobs data. These reports follow established schedules; for example, you can use FXOpen’s economic calendar to track major events. Improvements in that data can be bullish for CAD, while a deterioration could exert negative pressure on the currency.
In September, Canada’s GDP for the second quarter of 2023 signalled stalling economic activity, remaining unchanged from the first quarter against expectations. Unsurprisingly, there was a significant bullish market reaction in the USD/CAD exchange rate.
The Impact of Oil on Canadian Dollar Trading
Canada is one of the world's largest oil producers, and its currency is closely tied to the price of crude oil. A rise in oil prices typically boosts the Canadian dollar. Conversely, falling oil prices can weaken the currency. The oil price war in March 2020 between Saudi Arabia and Russia had a direct and adverse impact on the Loonie. The CAD depreciated due to the country's significant reliance on oil exports and the reduced revenues resulting from the sharp drop in oil prices.
Unique Factors to Consider in a Canadian Dollar Forecast
In addition to the aforementioned catalysts, there are unique factors that forex traders consider when analysing the Canadian dollar buying rate today.
Proximity to the United States
Proximity to the United States is a defining factor in the performance of the CAD, which is notably influenced by the intricate economic ties with that country. These ties extend beyond trade to factors such as cross-border investments and shared financial markets. Positive developments in the US, such as robust economic growth or shifts in monetary policy, can elevate demand for Canadian exports, thereby potentially strengthening the CAD. Conversely, economic challenges in the US may disrupt trade flows between the two nations, leading to a potential weakening of the CAD.
Commodity Prices and the Canadian Dollar Trend
Apart from oil, Canada exports various other commodities, including metals and agricultural products. Fluctuations in global commodity prices can influence the CAD, as they impact Canada's export revenues and, respectively, the performance of the Canadian dollar. When commodity prices are on the upswing, there tends to be a surge of incoming capital, which positively affects CAD exchange rates.
If you're eager to find new opportunities, you can visit FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
Trade Relations
Canada is a major player in global trade, having significant partnerships. News or events related to these agreements can significantly influence the CAD's performance.
- USMCA (formerly NAFTA): The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is pivotal for Canada, as a significant portion of its exports are destined for the United States. Any changes or developments in USMCA can impact the CAD's value.
- European Union: Canada has a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union (EU). This trade deal promotes exports to EU countries and fosters economic cooperation.
- Asia-Pacific: Canada's trade relations extend to Asia-Pacific nations, where it actively trades with countries like China and Japan.
The imposition of tariffs or the eruption of trade tensions can exert substantial pressure on the CAD. Tariffs can lead to reduced exports, affecting Canada's trade balance and potentially weakening the currency. Conversely, the resolution of trade disputes can lead to a stronger CAD.
Geopolitical Stability
Considering Canada's relatively robust economic position, the nation boasts a relatively elevated interest rate compared to other developed economies. Canada has also earned recognition for its prudent fiscal management, striking a harmonious balance between a government-influenced economy and a more laissez-faire approach. This characteristic becomes particularly relevant during times of worldwide economic instability. While not a reserve currency like the US dollar, the Canadian dollar is relatively stable.
Takeaway
To navigate the dynamic world of forex trading effectively, understanding the factors influencing the Canadian dollar's value is paramount. Among the unique features of the Loonie are its close ties to the US economy, reliance on commodities, and unique geopolitical position. Already have an idea of how to trade the CAD’s fluctuations? Open an FXOpen account and expand your journey right away.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
