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US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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US10Y trade ideas

Forget All Other ChartsIgnore all the other charts right now. They are based on DOLLARS. The dollar is permanently unstable and your imperialist overlords are here to take away your spending power. We're due to see bearish action similar to April 5th (pink dot). The question is, will we see a lower high in relative yields, or will we set a higher low and possibly become uninverted, and return above 1.0 once again? Consider that we just set a higher high in the S&P medium term and it could have simply been a move to fool the crowd. On the other hand, debt is at all time highs, and rates even at this level mean systemic insolvency. Raising rates further means quicker insolvency. I say just get it over with or don't do it at all. Inflation year over year is, realistically, 20-40%, each year since 2020. Key interest rates aren't even 10% of that. There is no way they will be able to control this in any way, shape or form, or manufacture a so called "soft landing". Rates rise >1.0 = total collapse, then easing Rates bounce <1.0 = unrealistic rally blow off top, more tightening to trigger the crash I think I used too many arrows but hopefully it makes sense. Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets.
TVC:US10Y
by fringe_chartist
11
Yield curve inversion cyclesUS10Y treasury yield minus US02Y treasury yield is an accurate predictor of impending economic recession. Here we compare the 10 Aug 2022 yield curve inversion low point to the low points in 2007 and 2000 that pre-dated the Great Recession and Dot Com stock market crashes. While a small inversion (below 0) does not always pre-date a recession, inversions as low as the current 10 Aug 2022 always have. Even more interesting is when you zoom in to the daily chart. Here we see the 10Y - 2Y moving back towards 0 from 10 Aug 2022 through 22 Aug 2022, even as stocks have begun to decline since release of the Fed minutes and recent commentary from Fed officials about the importance of continuing with additional rate hikes based on current inflation data.
TVC:US10Y
by theagileagent
5
Dollar and treasury yields are back on the marchU.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Friday to their highest since July 21 and U.S. stock futures fell by almost 1%, along with similar losses in Europe. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up 8 basis points at 2.967% as the Fed indicated July meeting minutes that it would continue hiking rates until inflation slows down significantly, although the central bank could soon decrease its pace of tightening. The 10-year Treasury yields above its 100-day exponential moving average, yields may extend its strength to 3.00% mark with the dollar's rally.
TVC:US10YLong
by AlyaAkram
the stagflation paradox. higher real rates + steepen yield curvehi there, dear fellow. we've recently stumbled upon this chart, in the quest for a leading gauge for the dxy. this chart depicts a paradox. in white, US10Y-USIRYY; in orange, US10Y-US02Y. if you remember our previous idea, namely on the DXY and the yield curve spread (US10Y-US02Y), we've pointed out back then that a steepening of the yield curve would be bearish for the DXY. well, now we just compared it with our gauge for the real rates, namely US10Y-USIRYY. what happens is, as it itself is on an extreme low in the last 20y+ (i haven't checked it beyond that, and it doesn't matter), it's likely to eventually revert to the mean. by the way, that's where the fed efforts are pointing to. that on itself is DXY bullish, untill and unless other CBs beat the fed in hawkishness, which is not the case by now. the recent tandem between both curves (since feb/21), suggests they're going up together, when and if. as for the orange curve, that should be dollar (DXY) bearish; as for the white on, bullish. who wins? the white one, for as higher real rates make more sense to be dollar bullish than it makes to be dollar bearish under a steepened yield curve. why? world wide higher inflation. in short, literally, DXY has a long way to go. our estimate is 2y+ of pain for stocks and cryptos, for as high and higher DXY is risk off for SPX and BTC. thank you.
TVC:US10YShort
by greenfield_br
3