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US10Y trade ideas

US 10Y TREASURY: the last call for 4.2%?Although the US equity market was strongly supported during the previous week, where one of the reasons was expectation on forthcoming rate cuts, still, the US 10Y Treasuries reacted in a bit different manner. Yields were testing the level of 4.2%, after successfully breaking the 4.0% level. As per CME's FedWatch tool, traders on the futures market have decreased their expectations for the rate cut in March this year. The percentage dropped from 71% to 53% within a week. This came after the jobless claims were released, which were at its lowest level since 2022. A too strong jobs market might be an indication of increased spending and in this sense, potential for the increased inflation, which might impact Fed's decision to postpone rate cuts for the second quarter of this year. The level of 4.2% will be tested at the beginning of the week ahead. However, there is a relatively low probability that this level might be breached in a week ahead. In this sense, yields might look toward the 4.0% support line to test it once again.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" (...who will win?)Hello Traders! The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish impulse with wave 5 formation. Does this bullish pattern meet economic fundamentals over the medium term? ...What is your opinion? -------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ...trade with care! 👍 If you think that my analysis is useful, please... "Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers!
TVC:US10YLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
23
US 10Y TREASURY: 4.0% testing is over?The US Treasuries ended the previous year with investors expectations on the forthcoming rate cuts, which was reflected in the Treasury yields which took the downtrend. This year, the 10Y US Treasury benchmark started by testing the $4.0% short resistance level, which ended in a short reversal further to the downside. During the previous week yields were moving within a relatively short range, between levels of 4.0% and 3.9%. Friday’s session ended with modestly lower grounds as investors were digesting the latest US inflation data released for December 2023. As inflation is easing down further in the US, so will the investors' expectations that the Fed might cut rates sooner from the second half of this year. In this sense, the 10Y yields might test lower grounds, where 3.8% currently stands as a next target and support line in technical analysis which is pending testing.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y: Bullish long term.The US10Y is being rejected on the 1D MA200 after a HL rebound at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish again (RSI = 42.660, MACD = -0.055, ADX = 36.524), same with the 1W timeframe (RSI = 43.184), so this is still an early buy opportunity for the long term. The 1D RSI patterns among the three bottoms so far are similar and one more pullback to the HL would be ideal for the most comfortable buy entry until the 1D MA50 is crossed. Our target is towards the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 4.600%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
1
US10Y Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 011124Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 126/61.80% Chart time frame : C A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress : B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) Hit the bottom D) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
TVC:US10Y
by fibonacci6180
us10y and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further, read my post from april: --- it has been awhile since i've given a public update on the us10y and my general theory about where i believe these rates are headed. back in april of 2023, i gave an upside target of 5.9% for the us10y. as of today, i'm raising the range for that upside target into the window between 6-9%, going into the end of 2024. i'm aware that jpow has mentioned in the last few fed meetings that he has no intention of raising the rates any further, but i'm seeing a significant development on many of the charts this week which tells me otherwise. so i'm calling him out on his bluff. --- us10y w5 algo = 6-9%
TVC:US10Y
by notoriousbids
US 10Y TREASURY: heading toward 3% in 2024The first half of the year 2023 was marked with continuation of Fed`s aggressive rate hike due to quantitative tightening in order to fight elevated inflation. During October last year the 10Y US Treasuries reached the highest yearly level of 5%. Considering that following months brought some relaxation in Fed`s rhetoric, the yields returned to the lower grounds. The pivotal point for yields was a moment when Fed officials stressed their projections that the reference rate as of the end of 2024 should reach 4.6%. This was a major note for markets, which started pricing Fed's rate cuts in the year ahead. During the Q3 2023 Treasury yields significantly eased, ending the year by testing the 4.0% level. As per latest Fed`s forecasts, the inflation in the US should decrease in 2024, but will still not reach the targeted value of 2%, jobs markets should remain strong as well as economic output, and the Fed will correct its current interest rates to the downside. In economic theory this would imply that 10Y Treasury yields should follow the path and also decrease. However, the theory is one thing, and the reality is something completely different. Analysts are generally in agreement that yields should move between 3% and 4% in 2024, however, it will strongly depend on the Fed`s rhetoric and further monetary moves. What is currently certain is that the 4% level will be tested at the beginning of 2024, with some probability that the level of 3% might be reached as of the year-end.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Support & Resistance Level on US 10 Year Treasury - Weekly ChartOn this Weekly chart I add the lines of key support and resistance levels for the US 10 Year Treasury. It's at a pivotal point right now hovering around 4%. What i'm watching for is to see if it's going to reclaim 4% for 2 consecutive weeks at a minimum and move higher to re-test that 4.25 to 4.28 range or if it will stay below 4% for 2-3 consecutive weeks and move lower into the next level down that I have marked off with white lines. I watch this closely as I am in the mortgage business and what the 10 year does daily will impact mortgage rates.
TVC:US10Y
by kaliljones
1
Critical Levels and Market Anticipation - US 10Y yieldUnveiling the High-Stakes Dance of US Inflation and the 10-Year Yield: Critical Levels and Market Anticipation" A slew of US inflation data is scheduled for release on Friday, prompting our attention towards the US 10-year yield. Initially holding ground at 3.79, it has recently broken its short-term downtrend and is undergoing an upward correction. The market has paused near the 4.10 level, precisely aligning with the high of March 23 at 4.09. It seems the market is consolidating its recent gains. Beyond the 4.10 mark, the immediate target price appears to be a combination of the 55-day moving average, presently at 4.31, and the previous peak in August 2023 at 4.36. Notably, these two levels stand out clearly on the chart, also marking the high from October 2022. From a technical perspective, breaching 4.10 could lead to an upward movement towards 4.31 to 4.36, serving as the next significant barrier. On the downside, the recent low of 3.79 and the 20-month moving average at 3.80 act as initial support levels. Below this lies a more substantial base of support, not encountered until 3.25. The forthcoming inflation figures on Friday should be interesting. All eyes are set on these critical levels for the US 10-year yield, hinting at potential market movements ahead. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10YLong
by The_STA
Short term rates still look weak while long term look betterHAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉 US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE. This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of. Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME 1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to weaken a bit more. ------------------------------------------------- HOWEVER, long term debt looks to be solidifying a bit. The 10 & 30Yr #Yield look identical & both look like they want to bounce here. How strong? We'll see. Took small position on Thurs. This could also be more of a technical set up as both are at support levels, 30yr is at strong long term support. TVC:TNX #bonds
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Understanding quarterly shifts in DXYIf you engage in futures trading, it's crucial to closely monitor quarterly shifts in DXY (US Dollar Index), EUR/USD, and yields. These indicators provide valuable insights into potential directional changes. Pay special attention to daily Market Structure High (MSB) and Smart Money Tool (SMT) patterns among correlated assets. Once a shift is identified, focus your trades in alignment with that new direction, emphasizing a strategy that considers the prevailing macroeconomic factors. The correlation and intermarket analysis, integral to this approach, involve studying relationships between assets to discern potential market movements. Success in implementing this strategy relies on a trader's expertise, risk management, and adaptability to evolving market conditions. Stay informed about global economic events and regularly reassess your trading strategy in response to market developments.
TVC:US10YEducation
by BullishFX_Consultancy