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Weekly Leading Indicator Panel warns...Reviewing the Weekly charts, especially for the leading indicators, it appears that there is a warning of downside risk imminent. SG10Y bond yield are about to break out. JNK TLT and TIP all have bearish engilfing that covers the previous gap up. Thing is, the coombined US equities chart is somewhat bullish, with a rough bearish harami at the bearish best indication. Even SOXL appears to be bullish somewhat... No action needed, but just an early warning given to set the boundaries yet again... looks like the Christmas Rally just fizzled out.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
SG10Y SG Govt Bond Yield UNCANNY heads up on US EquitiesHere is a rehash of the relationship between the Singapore 10Y Govt Bond Yields and US Equities ETF, SPY (Blue Line). Noted that when the SG10Y technically breaks out, the SPY technically breaks down, and vice versa. This is not 100% but happens an estimated 80% of the time, and recent occurences since September are marked out with bullish green or bearish red time lines, respective to SPY from the SG10Y leading indications. Just middle of this past week, the SG10Y spiked strongly and broke out, the next day saw the SPY tank significantly. In fact, the MACD for the SG10Y had already pre-warned of the breakout two days earlier! Given the current set up, as usual, I do my technical and charting projections. And in this case, it is clear that the Santa rally fizzled, year closign and next year opening should be weak until early February. Now, if this projection works as it should, then we would likely see a weak 2025 for the US equities... not only to take profit, but also offers opportunities to buy in at some point. (side note: as far back as 2020, 2025 was marked as the year of some resurgence of affliction from the neck upwards. It is a little sketchy, but it would very well be the surprise to tank the markets enough... watch for it)
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
Weekly Indicator Panel WARNED last weekend...ALL Red Flags already, as warned by my panel of leading indicators. You would see that all threshold have been triggered and are clearly red flags IF the week closes at current levels. The week has not ended, but it appears bad enough. There should be an attempt tp recover somewhat, but overall appears that Santa Claus might crash this rally this year. Furthermore, the year end and year start are keen indicators of the year ahead as well... so watch closely.
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
Predictive Correlation the SG10Y Bond Yields on S&P500I have posted about this correlation previously. Perhaps this time it might be clearer to see... This uncanny correlation between the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields as a leading indicator for the S&P500 was noticed some time ago, and tested since. As shown, the major turning points were seen in trend changes of the SG10Y GBonds first, before the S&P500 reacted. The vertical time markings show when you would short or long depending on the trend breakouts of the SG10Y GBonds (see lower panel, blue line), Comcomitantly, comparing what happens from that point, you can see the S&P500 in the upper panel with yellow line. The lowest panel is the MACD... and this shows the correlated pattern of a (lagging) technical indicator. Since 2023, there are at least six instances with 100% hit rate. Now... that brings us to TODAY. It appears that we are given advance warning of the next couple of months. For now, there should be a quick pop up to the very recent high followed by a failure of support in the S&P500; and then the expected trends should play out...
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
SG10Y forewarns of a blowout top in the S&P500... The SG10Y had been previously established to be a reliable indicator of the US S&P500 index, and US markets in general. It has had a 100% read accuracy in forewarning of imminent volatility, particularly when the SG10Y breaks out of trendlines. So the end of the week saw Nvidia spark a rally in the S&P500, and closing at record highs for the week. Usually, I would be excited about this, but the SG10Y break out of the Finbonacci fan trendline, as well as the correlated bearish zone for S&P500 (red box) and MACD turning more bullish again... all these tells of a blow out top on the S&P500, which we must be wary about. Clear indicator that in the coming week or two, we should see a quick reversal on the S&P500. Check out the previous linked posts to see how reliable and accurate this has been since I started tracking and reporting. Stay safe!
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
SG10Y suggesting another round of volatility Track record of tracking the SG10Y yields in giving heads up to the S&P500 or US market direction has been quite uncanny... This time, the technical outlook for the SG10Y is suggesting a breakout, and in doing so, should see market volatility to the downside. MACD is suggesting a potential breakout, as is a recent close to the high and breaking the Fibonacci fan resistance. Any quick pop up would be confirmation of market volatility being imminent.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VII - Where the bear?And so we have a clear break out of the SG10Y again. And based on previous inverse co-relationship, the US equities should be retracing in a down cycle. The thing is that for now, at least in the short interim, the US equities appear bullish and is likely to stretch further upwards. This co-relationship is either being tested or has been broken. For now, the opinion is with the former... and it might be telling of the incoming magnitude when the equities flip back down - hard(er). Observe and be ready...
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VI - Bear for EquitiesAs mentioned in previous heads up over the last weeks, it had finally happened (as expected) that the SG10Y GB yield rates break out of trend line resistance. And from previous occurrences, this is a very reliable inverse leading indicator of the SPY (and other related equity indexes); meaning that the SPY should be tanking downwards within the next week or so. Enough said, pattern recognition checked, trend correlation checked, projection based on hypothesis checked... now the rubber hits the road. Not expecting any deviation from the correlation, so is very likely that equities should be tipping over in a bearish slide. HEADS UP!
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part VConditions appear to be shifting really quickly... just a few days ago, it appeared that the SG10Y Govt Bond was going to break a low and go further down, sending the correlated S&P500 (and other indexes rallying up. BUT, it brooke down and recovered very quickly. NOW, it appears to be ready to break UP and out of the downtrend line. This has happened before, including the indication of the MACD (shown here this time), where there is also a bullish divergence and just now, a crossover of the MACD on the Signal line. Therefore, expecting a repeat of early Feb 2023, and IF this is the case, then the corresponding SPY action would be a lower high and a breakdown (red dotted arrow projects the SPY (blue line). Watch the next 5 trading days... critical clues will be revealed. Btw, if this scenario is played out, then the USD should concomitantly be bearish, Gold bullish, Crude bearish for the most part, etc. Also... for those who are like keen to get the SG bonds, the yields should be rising, not dropping, so no need to rush. Have a good idea of what might happen (don't listen wholesale to those who want to get you to buy stuff), then make a plan to have that idea happen. So far, five parts to this story, and so far it is holding the correlation as expected.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part IVTime to review this weekly chart which appears to gain even more importance in giving the insights... Noted that the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields continued to drop, and broke down a support to close at a 9 month low. Also note that since tracking and projecting (the previous dotted green arrow), the path of the SPY (blue line) was on point and closed higher to the point of the green arrow, now made solid (instead of dotted). A new projection for a smaller uptick is projected, in line with the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields dropping to a lower low, as you can expect a little more downside on that. Conversely, the SPY should be pushing forward and upward a bit more, as projected by the green dotted arrow. Now, UNTIL the time where the SG10Y Govt Yield breaks over the yellow trendline, and changes trend, the SPY should not yet turn bearish. It will happen, just not now so wait for it... Again, this is in line with the USD decline, and the Combined US Indexes climbing a bit more. Another angle that aligns. Interesting.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
SG10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part IIITime for yet another update in this uncanny inverse relationship between the SG10Y Government Bonds and the S&P500 Index ETF, SPY... Recall that the SG10Y GBond yields are in apparent inverse correlation to the SPY. When there is a trendline breakdown on the yields, the SPY is bullish; and when there is a trendline breakout, the SPY is bearish. So far, it can be observed that this relationship is intact and predictable, with the SPY forging bullishly when the SG10Y GBond yields are falling... Note that a support is approaching and this can mean either or both of two things: 1. There should be a brief stall in momentum incoming soon; and 2. The primary trend for the SG10Y GB Yields is bearish, expected to break the support and head further down until the end of April 2023. This also suggests that April should see a surge in the SPY (and S&P500), denoted by the larger green arrow. So far, now change in the yield downtrend, at least for the next week, until it reaches the expected downside target (red circle).
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
SG 10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship Part IIIn a bearish (engulfing) week for the SPY, it appears that there is more downside to follow, which I would expect. Thing is, it appears that the SG 10Y G-Bonds broke down a supporting trendline, giving advance heads up that it would be a bullish rally in the weeks to come. Previous dotted arrow line is now sold red as the SPY (blue line) moved up for a last hurrah and retraced really hard down in the weeks following from mid-Feb. Expect a bit more downside, but also expecting a bullish recovery given the heads up from the SG 10Y G-Bonds. The green dotted arrow lien depicts this expectation to last till mid- to end-April. Let's see...
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
SG 10Y Govt Bond and SPY relationship gives heads up...A rather uncanny comparison, but some correlation observed... the SG Government Bonds are the next level "risk-free" instrument (perhaps not to all, but it is clearly one of the more robust). Taking the SG10Y and overlay with SPY, some correlated trends are observed... The yellow lines are the trend lines for the SG10Y, and break outs or break downs are triggers. From here, follow the SPY (blue plotted line). Can be seen that when there was a break out of the SG10Y trend line, the SPY is bearish; alternatively, when there was a break down of the SG10Y trend line, the SPY is bullish. Just noted that the SG10Y is just about to break out, so... SPY topped out? Looks like it according to this correlation!
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
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Correlation between SG Bond Yields and TLTIn an interesting comparison, Singapore Bond Yields precede the TLT (blue line) slightly, especially in the recent year. See the elllipses marking out the break points, and SG Bond Yields are leading. Noted that the SG Bond Yield has been strongly downtrending, ahead of the TLT bullishess (inversely indicative of the US Bond Yields). I think it signals the undercurrents that something is not as rosy as it appears. The SG bond Yields are telling...
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader