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HOW TO USE THE RELATIVE SECTOR REGIMES: Example/JSE Technology HOW TO USE THE RELATIVE SECTOR REGIMES: JSE Technology as an example. This data set is published daily and shows how a sector is performing compared to the broader market (using JSE Top 40 Index as a proxy). Toward the latter part of last week, NPN and PRX (JSE Technology) was trading in an oversold range versus the Top 40 Index. This can be seen with indicator trading in the blue shaded area (value/cheap zone). By trading in this zone, the data suggested that there was an opportunity to possibly buy the sector for a rebound trade. We have since seen NPN and PRX stabilize, with a minor rebound, which gave short term/actives traders an opportunity to profit.
JSE:J200
by techpers
Candles Strength END OF DAY TUESDAY 12 March 2024Candlestick Formations form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share code (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
JSE:J200
by techpers
I'm done with this!We’ve all had this moment. Where we stare at our screens, scratching our heads, wondering a bunch of stuff. Why is this so slow? Why can’t I press the button Where am I going wrong? We’ve chased trends, hesitated when we should have acted, and let our emotions play puppeteer with our portfolios. Today is the turning point. For you! It’s time to say… “I’m done!” This read could be what you need to win this year. #1: I’M DONE: Making Excuses Enough is enough! No excuses this time. Open your trading account Deposit more money Adopt strong trading strategies Have the right calculators and journals to follow Keep at it. No more blaming external factors; it’s time to own your trading career and learn from them. #2: I’M DONE: Feeling Emotional Trading with emotions is like juggling dynamite. Sooner or later, something’s going to explode. Whether you have been on this rollercoaster of euphoria and despair for far too long. If you celebrate winners or get angry over losers – The emotions will only enhance and will develop into emotional turmoil. It’s time you take a more rational approach. Risk less – If the amount is too emotional to handle. No more “I know better trades” than my trading strategy. No more fear, greed and definitely NO MORE EGO! It’s time to trade with a clear head and a steady hand. #3: I’M DONE: Rushing the Process Patience is not just a virtue; it’s a survival skill. Have you been guilty rushing into trades without proper research, hoping for quick wins. Have you been irritated how slow the progress is to build an account. Have you felt the need to quit during drawdowns. Guess what? No body fails with trading. They quit. The market doesn’t care about your impatience. From now on, adopt the mantra: “Slow and steady wins the trading race.” #4: I’M DONE: Doubting Myself Self-doubt is the silent assassin of trading success. It creeps into your mind, sows seeds of uncertainty. Before you know it, you’re second-guessing every move. Stop! Remember, you are the BOSS of your trading account, strategy and results. So act like a boss. Get rid of self-doubt and embrace more confidence. You have got the skills, the knowledge, and the experience. It’s time to trust yourself and let your trades reflect that trust. #5: I’M DONE: Missing Great Opportunities Regret is a bitter pill to swallow. Especially when it comes to missed trading opportunities. I’m sure you’ve kicked yourself one too many times for hesitating when you should have pounced. I still kick myself when I miss trades! We are human. We can’t see everything all the time. But remember this. The next trade is always on its way. You don’t need to feel FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). Always try improve on spotting and taking advantage of better trading opportunities. And know that taking trades (no matter how good they look) are always difficult. But they need to be taken. They need to be followed. From now on, be bold, seize the moment, and make the most of every chance the market throws your way. FINAL WORDS: It’s all on you! Every financial decision you make, is your responsibility. So remember to say out loud what we are DONE THIS YEAR. #1: I’M DONE: Making Excuses #2: I’M DONE: Feeling Emotional #3: I’M DONE: Rushing the Process #4: I’M DONE: Doubting Myself #5: I’M DONE: Missing Great Opportunities
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
1
Overbought: End of Day Thursday, 07 March 2024An overbought rating often overlaps with high bullish momentum however the long-side reward-to-risk can be unappealing. How can traders approach these shares and how can it lead to a trading opportunity? The bullish price momentum could continue, however traders may want to look for early signs of a slowdown via: (1) poor candle candle structure on the lower (intraday) time frames. The emergence of a neutral or bearish candle, for example: a ‘doji’, bearish engulfing, long upper tail etc combined with sizeable offers which may signal some institutional selling.
JSE:J200
by techpers
OverboughtTICKERS THAT MATCH (SUBJECT TO CHANGE) ANG ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI BVT BIDVEST GROUP HAR HARMONY GOLD MCG MULTICHOICE (CORPORATE ACTION) VKE VUKILE PROPERTY An overbought rating often overlaps with high bullish momentum however the long-side reward-to-risk can be unappealing. How can traders approach these shares and how can it lead to a trading opportunity? The bullish price momentum could continue, however traders may want to look for early signs of a slowdown via: (1) poor candle candle structure on the lower (intraday) time frames. The emergence of a neutral or bearish candle, for example: a ‘doji’, bearish engulfing, long upper tail etc combined with sizeable offers which may signal some institutional selling.
JSE:J200
by techpers
What Makes a Trade – Unveil the pillars of profitable tradingTo trade well is nothing more than a calculated dance on the trading floor. You need to navigate the volatile seas of markets and understand the essential elements of a trade. And whether you’re a newbie or the MOST experienced trader out there, you need to adopt the same quintessential factors with your trading. And that is, the elements that make a trade. Let’s get into them… Position Size Imagine building a mansion without a blueprint. That’s what trading without considering position size feels like—chaotic and prone to collapse. The cornerstone of any robust trading strategy is for you to figure out the right amount of exposure to each position. It’s not just about the quantity of trades but the quality of each. You need to be precise in the position sizing with each trade. That is to maintain your risk and money management. That is to make sure you will only deposit a certain amount into your trade. And it is to ensure you have enough money to take on new and even higher probabilities of trades. Precision in position sizing is the silent architect behind the towering fortresses of successful traders. Entry: The art of timing of execution Whenever you enter into a market, 98% of the work is done. You have everything lined up according to the criteria, strategy and plan. You already have your idea on whether a market is likely to rally on up or fall off its horse. It’s not just about being in the market; it’s about being in the market at the right moment. Risk Level: Taming the market beast In the wilderness of financial markets, risk is the untamed beast that can either devour or be tamed. You need to be able to recognize the risk levels you’ll set to contain the beast. Where to place your stop loss The calculations of where you are NOT most likely to be hit Your risk per level and what you can stand to lose. Your risk level is your shield to protect from unexpected peril. You have to have all your calculations to lose a battle but NOT the war. Reward Level: Harvest your fruits Yes a MAJOR element to trading is RISK. But it’s also about reward, or else why would we be doing it? You need to meticulously set realistic reward levels that mirror the potential gains of a successful trade. Your reward must ALWAYS be more than your risk. You need to see the potential and likely future for the price to hit the take profit. Profit and Time Protection Levels: Safe-guard your winners and cut your losses Trading unfortunately is NOT always 100% mechanical. You need to safeguard your positions at times. What if the position becomes a non performing investment?’ And you’re losing daily interest? Well you need some type of time stop loss. This will get you out of your trade at a certain period so you can look for better positions. Worst case scenario you lose less than expected. Or you even bank a bit of profits as the trade remains in the money. FINAL WORDS: Trading is a game of calculated strategy and skill. But there are pillars of trading, you can’t avoid including: Position size, entry Risk level Reward level and Profit and time protection levels. These will help you form the bedrock upon which the palaces of prosperous trading are built. As you embark on your own trading odyssey, remember: mastery of these elements is not just a choice; it’s the key that unlocks the doors to financial triumph. So make sure you have these elements ready to execute to make a trade happen.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
JSE TOP 40 potential big Diamond breakdown to 58,288Bearish Diamond formation is potentially forming on JSE Top 40. We've seen bearish tendencies for the market with momentum downside. Price<20 and Price<200 - HPT We DO need this price to break below the Diamond before the likelhood is higher for big downside. But knowing indices, they always tend to suprise and the market makes a big rally. ANyway, the momentum is down for now and if the diamon breaks below the next target could be at 58,288. Let's see
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
How to trade the Fibonacci indicator in 2024Today, we’ll start with what Fibonacci is and how to use it to spot significant market turning points. Let’s start with... A short story about Fibonacci In 13th century Italy, lived a man named Leonardo Pisano – one of the greatest mathematicians of all time. Leonardo (also known as Fibonacci), learnt all about Arabic and Indian mathematics during his travels in North Africa and around the Mediterranean regions. Each time he travelled to a new place, he kept noticing a consistent pattern that repeated itself throughout nature. The sequence he defined was as follows. 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144… Basically, all you do is take the last two numbers and add them up to get the next number. 0 + 1 = 1 1 + 1 = 2 1 + 2 = 3 2 + 3 = 5 3 + 5 = 8 8 + 5 = 13 And so on… Fibonacci first contrived this pattern through a pair of breeding rabbits but he then saw this pattern throughout nature - in the breeding of honeybees , the shape of seashells as well as plants. This sequence also applies to trading and investing charts and is called the Fibonacci Retracement indicator. The Fibonacci Retracement indicator is used to help identify possible support and resistance levels for any market. The idea is all high liquid markets tend to move, to and retrace back, to certain levels after a big price move. The indicator is used to calculate the ratios and percentages using the Fibonacci sequence. Let’s look at an example with the South African JSE ALSI 40. Fibonacci on the JSE ALSI 40 Looking at the above daily chart of the JSE ALSI 40, you can see the index has fallen from a Swing High point of (100%) at 70,522 down to a Swing Low point (0%) to 65,386. On your platform, when you add the Fibonacci Retracement tool onto your chart, you'll drag it from the swing high to the swing low price of the uptrend to see six main horizontal fib lines present themselves: Fib line #1: 100% (Swing high) Fib line #2: 61.8% Fib line #3: 50% Fib line #4: 38.2% Fib line #5: 23.6% Fib line #6: 0% (Swing low) Traders use these lines to establish and identify supports (floor) and resistances (ceiling) levels. And with these levels you’ll be able to spot good entry, stop loss and take profit price levels. Once you draw the Swing High and Swing Low on the JSE ALSI 40, the Fibonacci lines will be plotted on the chart. You would also have seen the market then went to one of the high points at 61.80% at 68,560. The price then retraced back to the 23.6% level at 66,598. So you can see where we are going with this. As a reversal trader, you could have sold (gone short) the index around 68,560 and held it until it hit the 66,598 line at 23/6%. That’s where you would have banked a gain just by waiting for the market to bounce off a fib line. That’s a good introduction and a different way for you to trade and use the Fibonacci Retracement tool with your trading in 2024. Let me know if this was helpful!
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
1
7 Monopoly Lessons for TradersYou can learn a lot from the classic board game we all know and love: Monopoly. And as a trader, if you decide to play it again with your spouse or children – you’ll find the game to be very different. That’s because you have a better sense of risk, reward, probabilities and money management. You have the patience to grow a sizeable portfolio and eventually WIN! But before you do delve into your past, I want to share 7 important lessons I learned about trading from Monopoly. Hold Cash: The higher earner has the upper hand In Monopoly, the richer always has a stack of cash at the ready. Just like the Casino (where the house holds most of the money). And where the money is, is where the advantage lies. Similarly, in the trading arena, the money you have on hand is your golden ticket to seize profit opportunities. You know when they say, we are still counting our money? It’s because you have cash in hand rather than tied up in different assets. So with trading and with Monopoly, cash is king. You always need money to: Have funds to buy or sell more markets Be able to control your risk and money management Work on your Drawdown control methods Peace of mind you’re in it for the long haul No matter how many trades or positions I take, I always make sure to have at least 90% of cash in the portfolio at any one time. Be Patient: Not every roll is a winner Impatience is the enemy of traders. In Monopoly, you don’t win by making reckless moves at every turn. It’s about waiting for the right moment to strike. It’s about being patient to wait for the right property to buy and take advantage of. It’s about waiting for your opponent to land on your property for you to get paid. All in good time my friend., Apply the same philosophy to trading. The market will throw its share of doubles and snake eyes your way, but success lies in patience and strategic precision. You need to be patient for: The high probability trade to line up The markets to play out The drawdowns to end eventually Your portfolio to grow at a slow but steady rate Patience is EVERYTHING. Monopoly teaches us the value of holding onto our hard-earned cash. Similarly, in trading, preserving your capital is the name of the game. Avoid risky moves that could bankrupt your portfolio, and remember, sometimes the best move is not the flashiest one. Don’t blow on the most expensive stuff Just because Boardwalk has an expensive hotel doesn’t mean it’s the winning move. Similarly, the most expensive stocks or markets like Brent Crude or Indices like JSE ALSI 40 aren’t always the path to success. First, you might not have enough funds to accommodate the positions. Second, the markets might not have aligned perfectly to your strategy. Third, a high price market might be in a BUBBLE which is ready to pop. Fourth, it might be stressful putting in a large margin of funds to hold a more expensive stock i.e. Facebook, Berkshire Hathaway, Apple etc… Astute traders know that value can be found in unexpected places. You might find even better profit opportunities in other Blue Chip stocks that don’t even cost 1/10th of the price. Diversification and Opportunism: Building houses on every colour Monopoly teaches us the power of diversification. There are different properties with a variety of prices and conditions. You need to learn how to spread your investments wisely, and be opportunistic. Just as building houses on every color can secure your Monopoly victory, diversifying your portfolio across sectors, markets and positions can mitigate your risk and boost your chances of success. Strategic planning trumps luck I have to admit that, luck does play a role in both Monopoly and trading. It is luck to not roll the dice and land on “Go to Jail”. It is luck to not pick up a Chance card saying “You have to pay rates and taxes”. Same with trading. It is luck getting into a high probability trade and then the market actually playing out. It is luck being in a strong and favourable market environment for your trading system. It is luck having the market price shoot up past your take profit due to some external event. But trading and Monopoly are both very much strategic planning processes. You need to plan your moves carefully. You need to act on your moves, based on probabilities. You need to risk accordingly to not go bankrupt. You need a strong and well-thought-out trading plans. Conduct thorough analyses, and stick to disciplined strategies. And this is how strategy and luck will help you increase the chance of success. Negotiation mastery Monopoly is not just about rolling the dice; it’s about negotiation. You are playing against opponents of different advantages and styles. You need to learn how to negotiate, aid and help each other – before you beat them! I don’t know how else to explain this :D. Trading also involves striking deals. You’re hitting bids (when selling) and offers (when buying). You’re betting against your counterparty (investor, trader or market maker). You’re negotiating prices and moves. The choices you make will give you the significant edge and help streamline your profitable journey. Passive Income Key: Collect $200 as You Pass Go The exciting and genius of Monopoly lies in the sweet reward of $200 every time you pass Go. You know that feeling of waiting and playing your turns. Going through the good Chance cards and the Bad (going to jail). But when you are out and you pass Go, you can to collect your wage of $200. This is your special passive income secret weapon. You don’t just stick to what you have, you build on it and use what you newly have to grow your portfolio. The same works with trading. Each month, you receive a salary. And you spend, save and invest. So if you want to grow your trading portfolio using the compounding strategy, you might as well build on it. You might as well accelerate your trading journey. You might as well let your money work for you! Embrace the power of compounding, re-investing and depositing, and you might find yourself collecting much more than $200 as you navigate the trading board. Let’s sum up the Monopoly Lessons Traders Can learn: Hold Cash: The higher earner has the upper hand Be Patient: Not every roll is a winner Don’t blow on the most expensive stuff Diversification and Opportunism: Building houses on every colour Strategic planning trumps luck Negotiation mastery Passive Income Key: Collect $200 as You Pass Go FINAL WORDS: The trading board is yours – now go bankrupt the market, one strategic move at a time!
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
5 Important Trading Protection LevelsREMEMBER No matter what stock, index, Forex or other markets you’re trading, every trader needs 5 protection levels. Stop loss to stop yourself from furthering losses Time stop loss to get you out of non-performing trades Adjusted stop loss to lock in profits when the market moves in your favour. Risk % per trade to only lose a certain amount of your portfolio % of Drawdown before you HALT trading – when the market is not in a favourable environment to your strategy. Short and sweet but VERY powerful to apply to your trading. Do you have any other protection levels?
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
1
JSE ALSI 40 is a mess - Bearish bias to 63,460Yep, the JSE ALSI 40 is in yet another Twilight Zone. We see sideways motion, prior downtrend and there are sideways indicators. The bearish bias part of it is that price is below 200MA. The RSI is showing lower highs (Bearish divergence). We also see low volume on the buying side. More importantly, we have a flat monday with no conviction... And if the price does break below the Symmetrical Triangle, we could see downside in the week. The target could be very well to 63,460. Here is your weekly wrap up. The U.S. stock markets mostly closed higher, with a significant highlight being the S&P 500 surpassing the 5,000-point level for the first time. The growth was driven primarily by big tech companies and a variety of sectors including software, semiconductors, communications, media, regional banks, trucking, apparel retailers, auto suppliers, and Chinese tech stocks showing notable performance. Conversely, sectors such as real estate, energy, food & beverage, cruise lines, and casual diners lagged behind. Microsoft stood out by achieving a 1.6% rise in its shares, which boosted its market capitalization to $3.125 trillion, marking the highest valuation ever for an American company. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed at 4.166%. In europe: In Europe, equity markets ended the day lower, with technology, media, and healthcare sectors leading the gains, while food & beverage, real estate, and utilities faced declines. General indices: Market performance indices closed as follows: S&P 500 up by 0.57%, Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.14%, Nasdaq up by 1.25%, FTSE 100 down by 0.30%, DAX down by 0.22%, and CAC 40 down by 0.24%. Asian markets Asian equity markets saw minimal activity, with most closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. However, there was a notable increase in holiday travel activity, with Xinhua reporting the addition of 1,873 passenger trains across the railway network on Friday. Markets such as Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Shanghai were closed, while the ASX 200 saw a modest increase of 0.19%. In South Africa In South Africa, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) closed lower, primarily dragged down by the resources sector, which fell by more than 2% due to weaker metals prices. The precious metals and mining sector saw a decrease of 2.22%, although industrials managed a modest gain, supported by solid performances from companies like Bidvest, Naspers, and Richemont. The yield on the 10-year government bond closed at 9.955%. Thank you for reading and enjoying the daily wrap up and analyses we provide to Trading View for you!
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso