OHLC Statistical Mapping ShortOne of the short model:
+Distribution was entry, SL was space between -Manipulation & +Distribution
target: +Distribution
UDF1! trade ideas
Updated Gameplan for Dow Jones (2024-2026 Consolidation)I can see a clearer picture of the price action before me. This is what I now believe to be happening. Price will be going in a sideways range for the next 24 months.
To confirm this thesis, I will need to see that stop run low and close back inside. Next, I will need to see price retrace back down and layer into that low but not take it out.
One full range expansion of this range will be 49,000
If this thesis is true, then we are nearing a sort of rounding top. I believe 2024 will finish the year out going sideways up at the top.
Buy Continuation for the Dow and then a Sell-Off?A liquidity grab to the downside on the Dow Jones is to be expected in the coming days. I would like to take advantage of a buy position if possible. I see the market topping out in the 43,000 area, which is where I want to look for sells. My analysis is price-action based. I'm not married to a particular bias, but this is what I currently see. #PatiencePays
Dow Jones (YMZ2024) - Teetering Around All-Time HighsWhat will break first?
Dow, Nasdaq or S&P...?
So far, YM has been frontrunning the stock index markets by booking all-time highs first before ES (NQ still has a way to go before booking ATH's) and the question going into next weeks trading is, will the Dow be the first to turn around?
the E-mini Dow Jones futures are currently in an upward trend w
Trend Analysis
Current Trend: The chart shows an upward trend, indicated by the ascending channel. The price is currently near the upper boundary of this channel.
Support and Resistance: A significant support level is marked at 40,182, while the resistance is around the recent highs near 42,443.
Candlestick Patterns
Recent Movement: The latest candlestick shows a strong bullish movement with a gain of 2.45%, suggesting positive market sentiment.
Volume Analysis
Volume Trends: The volume appears consistent, with no extreme spikes, indicating steady participation in the market.
Seasonal Performance
Monthly Trends: Historically, October shows a positive average return of 2.32%, while November is even stronger with 4.21%. This suggests potential continued strength in the coming months.
Yearly Comparison: The table indicates varying performances over the years, with 2024 showing a relatively stable performance compared to previous years.
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages and Trend Lines: The chart includes trend lines that support the current bullish trend. Monitoring these lines can help identify potential reversals or continuations.
Conclusion
Overall, the E-mini Dow Jones futures are currently in an upward trend with strong support levels. Seasonal trends suggest potential for continued gains in the near term. However, traders should remain cautious of any signs of reversal at resistance levels.
DJ ShortI will be looking to short DJ and Russel till the NFP day.
Disclaimer: Not a financial advice. Do your own analysis
OHLC Statistical Mapping Friday LongAnother long model:
-Distribution to -Manipulation
basically reversed psychology, normally you would trade something similiar in bearish scenario.
Intraday Elliott Wave View on Dow Futures (YM) Favors the BullisShort term Elliott Wave view on Dow Futures (YM) suggests that cycle from 8.8.2024 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 8.8.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 41682 and wave (2) pullback ended at 40028 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave A ended at 40264 and rally in wave B ended at 41065. The Index then extended lower in wave C towards 40028 which completed wave (2) in higher degree.
Index has turned higher in wave (3). Internal subdivision of wave (3) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 41100 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 40701. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 42184, and wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 41890. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 42270 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 2 unfolded as an expanded flat where wave ((a)) ended at 41893, wave ((b)) ended at 42416 and wave ((c)) ended at 41850. Index has resumed higher in wave 3 of (3). Near term, as far as pivot at 40028 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
YM - $42,070 Looking Weak...With huge news releases this week, it is expected that big movements will occur. It's just that right now, for this week, after all-time highs was booked, we haven't seen any dramatic movements as of yet.
Dow Jones Weekly Template Of FOMC Bullish Weekly TemplateBased on market structure, I am looking for a bullish weekly template with a pullback into support for the continuation of the trend. I am looking for at least a 1 times range expansion of last week's range. Thursday and Friday broke out. Friday closed as a breakout with Longs now in the market. Monday is a buy low continuation and the opening range for the week.
I believe Wednesday will be the same as last week as the mid-week reversal at the low of the week for the trend continuation Long into Friday's Low and Monday's high.
The weekly candle should close bullish and at/near the highs. I will be paying attention to the purple line as that is the weeks open. I will be watching price as it auctions around the open of the weekly candle.
ATR on the 15-minute chart is 75 ticks and so that will be what my stops are.
75 tick stops
195 tick targets
I will be using 2.6 risk to reward.
YM - Premium to $40,116 Equalibrium?Unlike ES and NQ, YM is still some way from discount prices.
Expecting reaction from the $40,200 region
Traders Turning to Traditional Stocks and Dow Jones In July, most markets reached their peak, followed by a three-day global meltdown after the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike. Since then, all have recovered, but only the Dow Jones has surpassed its July high, while the others have not.
AI and tech stocks, particularly those in the Nasdaq, have lost their shine compared to traditional stocks like those in the Dow Jones.
We will explore which sectors investors are gravitating towards this time and why they favor the Dow Jones over the Nasdaq this season.
Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Dow Jones (YW): Key Levels to Watch Before CPI ReleaseThe Dow Jones (YW) is approaching crucial levels ahead of the upcoming CPI data release. The chart highlights key red and green lines where price action could intensify, offering potential buy and sell opportunities. Traders should stay alert as volatility may spike following the data.
What’s your take on these levels? Share your thoughts, and follow for more timely insights!
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly!*
YM1-US30 ShortFollowing up on my analysis we had a good short starting at 40,835 price.
this move gave us a total of 370 ticks in profit. Im expecting price to drop a bit more but we might see some correction higher to take out buy side liquidity
Market Seems To Be Copying April CPI Setup?Looking back at April CPI, today is doing exactly what it did April 9th before the CPI. The exact same pattern.
Friday, a sell off day
Monday, all day of rise
Tuesday, a sell off followed by a rally back up
CPI, a slow pullback into the previous day's highs, followed by a dump taking out Monday's low
YM -Dow Jones going short to grab more liquidity Today we came into an orderblock on the 5m and bounce of it with good downwards pressure and we did not break through buy side liquidity, london session will either take price lower for sell side liquidity or we could see it go down a bit and go higher to take out buy side liquidity.
Rising Wedge 2025 Topping Process (34% Sell Off) 43,000I am bullish on this CPI and FOMC up to the 43,000 area as the top is not in place yet.
How I came to this conclusion:
First, take the high and low of Oct low 22' and Jan High 22', mark the 0.5 range expansion.
Second, the Oct 23' low bounced off the golden pocket of above range.
Third, take the "projected" high of 25' and the low of Jan 22' high breakout point and project range expansions of 1 and 2 times down.
Fourth, take the 2020 covid low and the 2025 high of 43,500 and mark the golden pocket (0.5 and 0.66)
Fifth, Mark the consolidation inside of above golden pocket AND mark the midpoint, notice the 2 times range expansion from the upcoming sell off lands EXACTLY at this price.
Finally, the VIX analysis. The tops in markets are marked as pullbacks and bottoms in the VIX. It is opposite.
Notice the huge spike followed by a pullback
Dow Jones Bearish Alert: Rising Wedge Since COVIDSince COVID, a rising wedge has been forming, signaling potential weakness ahead. Be prepared for a possible pullback. Keep a close watch on key support levels and plan your moves accordingly!"
Dow Jones US30 Buy Level I am sharing Buy Lebel of Dow Jones as per Goldbach on daily time frame
expecting ejection from 0.11 level as per gold Bach says this is rejection area further this move can go up to EQ level and 1.111 ext level
Good Luck
Weekly Engulfing. Bear Trend Structure. Sell High Setups 75/220+Lower Highs and Lower Lows
Look for Sell Highs
75 tick stops
220 tick targets +
Minimum 3:1
Possible next sell high and lower high is the bottom of Tuesday's Low of 40,850
Friday NFP closed at extreme lows and formed the lower low.
Dow Futures (YM) room to 42kBreak of ATH into month end has set up a somewhat easy push to new highs at 42,375 fib extension level into the first week of the month. Markets as a whole ended the month strong and look juiced to try for new highs despite election polls/odds
Intraday Elliott Wave Expects Further Correction in Dow Futures Short Term Elliott Wave in Dow Futures (YM) suggests that pullback to 38532 low on 8.5.2024 ended wave ((4)). The Index then turned higher and made a new all-time high in wave ((5)) as an impulse. Up from wave ((4)), wave 1 ended at 39619 and wave 2 pullback ended at 38689. The Index then extended higher in a nesting impulse with wave ((i)) ended at 39770 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 39344. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 41085 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 40684. Last leg wave ((v)) ended at 41523 which completed wave 3. Pullback in wave 4 ended at 40920 and wave 5 higher ended at 41682. This completed wave (1) of ((5)).
Index is now correcting cycle from 8.5.2024 low in wave (2) of ((5)). Down from wave (1), wave ((i)) ended at 41231 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 41674. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 40854 and wave ((iv)) ended at 41260. Expect wave ((v)) of A to end soon, then it should rally in wave B to correct cycle from 8.30.2024 high before it turns lower again in wave C of (2). Near term, as far as pivot at 38532 low stays intact, expect pullback to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
