SPX- Countdown to Price DownEverything that we would say in this post we have already said
Now we wait.....
SPIUSD trade ideas
US Markets Demonstrate Confidence Despite Election JittersThe US markets are currently demonstrating a bullish sentiment, despite concerns surrounding the upcoming election.
All major indices, including the S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and Nasdaq Composite, have formed a bullish Cup & Handle chart pattern and have subsequently broken to follow an upward trend.
While the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite have reached new all-time highs, the Nasdaq Composite is close to its highest peak, further reinforcing the positive market outlook.
'This overall bullish sentiment suggests that the upward trend in the US markets is likely to continue, even in the face of election-related uncertainties.
Possible Buy Trade on US500 / S&PThis is my analysis trade for US500. Weekly is bullish all the way down to 4H for HTF direction.
I will not chase the price instead. I will wait for the pullback for the price to go to my buying zone
for the OB which are showing up from 4H all the way down to 15M timeframe. So for me, this is the best location to buy again for another possible round of bullish action for this market.
I added a trade alert so I will not look at this pair in the week until my alert gets triggered.
Once price goes to my buy zone and I get my alert, that's the time I will go down and find my possible trade entry on lower timeframe so I can have a tighter stop loss and possibly get a better risk reward ratio.
Possible target would be the all time high price as well.
I will update my trade idea here once price goes to my buy zone for my possible entry on the lower timeframe.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Bullish Breakout & ContinuationThe US500 Index has successfully broken above a significant daily horizontal resistance level and closed higher.
After this breakthrough, the market retested the broken level and began to consolidate.
A bullish breakout from the upper boundary of this consolidation range would serve as strong confirmation of an upward trend.
This scenario enhances the chances of sustained upward momentum, with a target set at 5,880.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Bullish Breakout & ContinuationThe US500 Index has successfully broken above a significant daily horizontal resistance level and closed higher.
After this breakthrough, the market retested the broken level and began to consolidate.
A bullish breakout from the upper boundary of this consolidation range would serve as strong confirmation of an upward trend.
This scenario enhances the chances of sustained upward momentum, with a target set at 5,880.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Bullish Breakout & ContinuationThe US500 Index successfully surpassed and closed above a strong daily horizontal resistance.
Following the violation, the market tested the previously broken level and began to consolidate.
A bullish breakout from the consolidation range's resistance line provides a robust confirmation of a bullish trend.
This increases the likelihood that the upward momentum will persist, with a target set at 5,880.
SPX - time for a pullbackHello traders.
Today using simple trendlines and fibs I show why I believe we are gonna dip from here. We could still make it to 600 but we need to dip now from the top of a rising wedge trendline thats from August. Also the little dip in Oct has us reaching the 1.618 fib up from that which is a classic reversal point.
Ok the question now is how big of a dip.... The white box target area bounce would leave the rising wedge intact. I really think it needs to drop to one of the lower boxes so it will have enough energy to go much higher into EOY.
Everyone is saying directly up to 600 from here. So its possible we could have a bigger dip as so many being long right now. That would in effect squeeze us lower.
Also we have the possibility of Israel attacking Iran at any moment in retaliation.
What do you think?
Let's see what happens!
WARNING: SPX (SP500) Topping out Between Now and Mary 2025📈⚠️ Equities are likely topping out between now and next May! Time to scale out of stocks and shift into cash and hard assets, especially #PreciousMetals and #Miners. 💰🔄
Don’t pick up pennies in front of a steamroller! Wave 5 on the #SP500 is nearly complete—price and time are balanced.
🚨 A MAJOR correction is coming! If your net worth is heavily in US Stocks, Bonds, and US Real Estate, it's time to diversify further. These asset classes are about to face heavy pressure! 💥💸
Thanks for liking & sharing... Let us know what your plans are in the comments!
SP:SPX
When is the party over?Inflation ticking back up. Unemployment increasing. Dollar increasing. Geopolitical turmoil. Contentious elections. And yet the market continues to grind up. But when will the music stop? When is the party over?
I'm not making a call to mark the top here but this is setting up for a giant fall. We could continue to grind up to 6000 point, there's no doubt that bulls remain in control. However, the strength of the move up is weak. History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes. Looking back at the historical data, bearish divergences on the Weekly always result in a large pullback.
I am expecting a pull back soon. I do believe a large correction is brewing and I don't want to be caught on the wrong side of the trade.
What am I doing about it? I still think the path of least resistance is to the upside, bulls remain control. So I am using trailing stop losses, taking profits on many of my positions. And looking to open shorts upon weakness. Waiting for confirmation of my bias, especially with a very important couple of weeks of earnings.
Stay tuned, manage your risk and don't let greed get the better of you!
Not financial advice.
More up for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD started a small correction down. It's too small for a wave 2 so I've adjusted the wavecount.
I think we could see a continuation of the upmove next week to finish the wave 3.
Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bullish and a correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 11, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the previous week's Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of October 4, it was observed that the index maintained considerable strength at the Mean Sup 5700 on Monday. The remaining days of the weekly trading sessions have demonstrated substantial and vigorous progress, surpassing the previously completed Inner Index Rally at 5763 and its progress towards the Outer Index Rally at 5840. The upcoming trading session will demonstrate further sentiment regarding the bullish sentiment to hit the 5840 target. However, recognizing that achieving the 5840 mark will incite a volatile downward price action is crucial.
S&P 500 locallyS&P 500 moved pretty high today, but don't fall for a bull trap, it's just a part of the correction. The price is moving in a descending channel right now and I expect that it will go down to the support area at 5650 tomorrow and hit a red trendline. Then it will either go for a deeper correction or maybe start a new growth wave.
SPX mid term viewIn my view SPX short term reversal will start in 5870 area to test 5500 area before resuming bullish trend to ATH 6250 area in feb/march 2025 where massive crash will start
S&P 500, time to buy? where is the support for 1 day chartsTake noted the below is not an investment advise, bet at your own risk. I am solely not responsible for any of your loses in money or assets.
The Current S&P 500 price is 4320.05 as of 24 September 2023.
The S&P 500 have potential to drop to 3900 to 3850 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023.
The price will hover between 4618.28 to about 3900 within this period.
Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at 4618.28. If there is a breakout then the next level of weaker resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at 4804.36.
Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around 3900 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from 3900 and head lower to a weaker support at 3534.39. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years.
3900 is a very strong support level based on the 1-week chart of S&P 500. I would only start buying a little at 3900 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more.
Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.
SPX Short: Peak ReachedFollowing my previous short call on SPX (SPX Short: Seeking Peak) where I gave a lengthy explanation of the technicals and gave a peak target, this idea is telling you that the peak is reached and now is a fabulous opportunity to enter the market. The stop is above the high made today.
Do take note that I’ve changed the Fibonacci extension level such that wave 5 = 1.618x Wave 1.
Of course, in order to execute this trade, you may need to start trading during Asia hours when the CFDs and Futures open for trading. No matter what, remember the stop in case this idea is wrong.
BROAD MARKET UPDATE - OCTOBER 2W CLOSEThis is just a smash and grab market analysis and some projections for Gold, SPX and Bitcoin. Havent been at my best lately so been taking some time off charts but mostly focusing on work stuff.
US500 evening updateThis count has US500 in wave ((5)), with key support at 5677.8.
I have area in green ellipse as a complete five-wave structure, with 1>3>5. This remains valid as long as price remains below 5829.7.
If price remains below 5829.7, then will look for corrective structure to finish above 5677.8 for a wave (2) of ((5)) or an impulsive structure to take out support at 5677.8.
If 5829.7 holds as resistance and 5677.8 breaks as support, it would suggest five-wave structure from 5 August low is complete.
Looking For Next Market Top AgainLooking for next top
Submillennium 1
Grand Supercycle 5 - green
Supercycle 1
Cycle 5 - orange
Primary 5 - blue
Intermediate 5 - pink
Minor 5 - yellow
Minute 5 - green
I will try to find the next top off simply modified wave theory.
First we need to set the baseline. I prefer the chart SPX500USD as it encompasses 23 hour trading during the week and can capture movement not always distinguishable in the SP:SPX chart.
My first step is always to identify the location of wave 3 (if it exists). I do this by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder v2 in conjunction with my RSI triple confirm indicator and a simple RSI 9.
My wave 3 indicator will have a painted background at potential wave 3 locations, blue background for bearish reversals and pink for bullish reversals. My triple confirm RSI should signal in conjunction with the actual wave 3 point, red for bearish reversals and green for bullish reversals. My wave 3 indicator tends to spot wave 3 of 3 by displaying a gap between painted backgrounds. These indicators signal upon market close and are not considered finalized signals until the next bar begins.
My baseline is in the 2 month chart. I have worked through the historical SPX chart and believe we are in the fifth and final wave (Grand Supercycle 5) of a larger structure (Sub Millennium 1) that began in the 1800s. This specific wave 5 began at the market bottom in 2009, and we are only in the first (Supercycle 1) of five waves to the upside. I do not expect a catastrophic market top for many decades to come.
This chart picks up around 2004 to the current time. We are likely in Cycle wave 5 which began at the market low in October 2022. I have determined Cycle wave 3 to have ended at the peak at the beginning of 2022 based on the wave 3 indicator and RSI agreeing on a reversal point. In the moment, I would not have agreed the market topped in January 2022 as the indicators were still signaling. It is only on the preceding bar not producing a signal that an event is confirmed. Next I will determine common wave extensions off (Fibonacci levels) of Cycle wave 3's movement which began at the low in January 2016 at 1,806.25 and ended at 4,820.20 in January 2022. Wave 3 moved 3,013.95 points. Cycle wave 5 could move 123.6% to 138.2% of Wave 3's movement. These means a potential endpoint is between 5,531.49-5,971.53. This will be the orange outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
Next I will try to identify a current Primary wave 3 inside of Cycle wave 5. My indicators point to Primary wave 3 ending around the mid-July 2024 on the 2-day chart based on the gap in the wave 3 indicators. There is not an RSI 3 signal in the 2-day chart for Primary wave 3, but there was one for Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 3 around February 12, 2024. We can attempt to confirm this by seeing where the end of Intermediate wave 5's movement extended too. If Intermediate wave 3 began January 5, 2024 and ended March 29, 2024, Intermediate wave 5 topped close to 161.8% of Intermediate wave 3's movement as seen below:
Based on this assumption, Primary wave 3 was likely over by mid-July 2024. The next Fibonacci wave extension levels for Cycle wave 5 could see this wave end between 108-123.6% of Primary wave 3's movement. This places a potential top between 5,806.48-6,052.34. This will be the light blue outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
We will next move inside of Primary wave 5 which possibly began at the low from the beginning of August 2024. In looking for Intermediate wave 3 inside of Primary wave 5, the indicators point to Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 occurring on September 19, 2024 and the Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 3 occurring on September 13. If we find the Intermediate wave 5 extension from this Intermediate wave 3, a potential top sits between 5,816.26-5,936.51. This will be the pink outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
Next we try to identify where we are in Intermediate wave 5. The 2-hour chart here indicates a possible Minor wave 3 occurring on October 9, 2024. A possible Minor wave 5 extension from here is a top between 5,825.38-5,868.50. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
We can attempt to go a final level deeper inside of Minor wave 5. We currently have Minute wave 3 indications based on the high from earlier today at 5826.90. If this is the end of Minute wave 3, Minute 5 could top between 5,834.16-5,857.61. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Based on a this wave set being over a small timeframe, this top could happen before next Tuesday. This is zone of interest for a near-term top.
This is purely theoretical, but Israel will likely strike at Iran soon. Iran has claimed they would respond quickly, but the prior instances saw long delays in the response. If Iran has an immediate response, a full on conflict would be underway in the Middle East. Not all wars are bad, but this one would likely impact oil and depending on the duration likely impact economies around the world. A contained conflict between a few nations likely would not spiral into a larger conflict, however, strong alliances on other side could turn this into a much greater event, closer to a world war situation. As drastic as this is, it could explain a potential near-term top. If conflict does not break out, we will likely see a short-term market top before continued movement higher and higher. Time will tell. Enjoy!
LETS GO.. TIME TO FALL!!The time is up. Indexes must fall now. Everyone on CNBC has agreed with one another that the market will go up now, and there is nothing to stop it.
Recap of my NY session with a DJ30 Long tradeTextbook 3 star inside day breakout setup, spotted well before and traded accordingly
100 years parallel channel SP500We are nearing the upper resistance of a century-old parallel channel on the S&P 500 (logarithmic scale). Not financial advice (NFA).
S&P Analysis London was volatile but not clear thing in price action. I will focus only on Newyork session So that means Only session trade No day trade No weekly trade.
S&P 500: Inflation and Volatility on the Road to New HighsThe recent release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that core inflation unexpectedly rose from 3.2% to 3.3% in September, raising concerns about a possible reaction from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors fear that this increase could pressure the Fed to adopt a less dovish stance, even if that means hurting the labor market and the broader economy. The market reacted in a mixed fashion. The S&P 500 closed slightly down 0.21%, after a session marked by hesitation and volatility. However, despite weak employment data and high inflation, US futures showed a slight uptrend, suggesting that the market is not yet convinced of a radical change in Fed policy. In the bond market, two-year bond yields rose above 4%, while the dollar index ended the day virtually unchanged.
Today's Economic News in the U.S.
Several key U.S. reports are expected today, which could impact all three indices. Notable among them are the New York State Manufacturing Index, the NOPA Crush Report, and Consumer Inflation Expectations. There will also be bond auctions, and investors will be watching for comments from Fed member Philip Kugler.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): The Dow Jones fell 0.14%, affected by losses in sectors such as telecommunications and industry. Among the most affected, Boeing fell 1.84% and Home Depot lost 1.47%. On the other hand, Amazon rose 0.80%.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 also posted losses of 0.21%, with sectors such as energy and technology showing large fluctuations. CrowdStrike Holdings rose 5.58%, while First Solar fell 9.29%.
Nasdaq Composite: The Nasdaq retreated just 0.04%, driven by the positive performance of BloomZ Inc. which rose an impressive 87.36%, although JetAI fell 11.77%.
Looking at the S&P500 (Ticker AT: USA500) , the index has moved sideways since June 17, on September 19 it pierced double price resistance. On the other hand the long term channel tells us that it has moved through the mean of the channel on the upside. Its RSI is 60.79% and the Check Point is around 5476 points. If we look at the cross of averages, the 200 average is below the 100 and 50 averages. The bolinger bands seem to be narrowing which may show a possible bullish continuation signal towards the high of 5800 points.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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