$SPX MONTHLY COUNTMonthly count of SPX currently on wave 5 and forming ending diagonal?
for daily and weekly structure im seeing a correction for wave 4 (red)
let's see how the story fold.
SPCUSD trade ideas
S&P500: Crossed under the 4H MA50. Bearish.S&P500 is headed towards a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.952, MACD = 52.430, ADX = 39.810) as today the price hit the 4H MA50 after more than 2 weeks. Every time the index crossed under the 4H MA50 since October 21st, it declined more to the 4H MA200. The long term pattern remains a Channel Up but short term the strenght behind the 4H RSI drop favors going short. Target a potential contact point with the 4H MA200 (TP = 5,960).
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S&P 500 Analysis: Bearish Momentum Ahead of CPI ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea from 6058 and still has bearish momentum.
Now, as long as trades below 6058 touch 6022, stability under 6022 supports dropping toward 5971, especially if the CPI released is more than expected, which is 2.7%.
A 4-hour candle should close above 6058 to have a bullish trend until 6099, in the case of realizing CPI results in less than 2.7%.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6058
Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145
Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932
Trend Outlook: Downward while below 6058
SPX500 H4 | Falling to pullback supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,020.01 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,950.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 6,102.21 which is a swing-high resistance.
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S&P 500: Technical Insights and Trend ForecastS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price has dropped from its previous significant high and has already broken the key level at 6058. It is currently attempting to reclaim this level.
As long as trades below 6058 will touch 6022.
Bullish Scenario, A 4-hour candle close above 6058 will signal a potential reversal, targeting higher resistance levels.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6058
Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145
Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932
Trend Outlook: The trend remains downward while the price is below 6058.
Previous idea:
12/09 Weekly SPX InsightsLast week’s assessment aligned well with the anticipated positive SPX range. The index moved sharply up toward the 6100 area, yet as Friday’s session progressed, the call resistance around 6100 capped further upward momentum.
Looking ahead, I have doubts that the previously unbridled optimism will persist. Currently, we find ourselves in a “chop zone,” suggesting that the short-term direction is less clear.
In aggregating GEX (Gamma Exposure) levels and examining the landscape a week out, it appears that 6100 remains a strong call resistance level. Meanwhile, the HVL (High Volatility Level) has crept closer to around 6080, placing the market uncomfortably close to a higher-volatility environment. Below 6080, the market may experience increased turbulence, potentially retesting 6035 and then 6000.
On the other hand, if the index can break and hold above 6100, an upward gamma squeeze could emerge, pushing prices even higher. Currently, overall GEX sentiment is negative, but the approach toward the HVL zone suggests caution. From these conditions, I’m not expecting a strong, sustained rally in the immediate term.
In terms of intraday and short-term dynamics, 0DTE (same-day expiry) sessions and Fridays continue to hold relatively higher positive gamma exposure compared to other days.
Volatility indicators:
VIX: remains low
IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): also low
Put Pricing Skew: currently low, although it has begun to show a very slight uptick
Key Levels for This Week (for educational reference):
Above 6100: Omni-bullish environment
Between 6100–6065: Chop zone (directionally uncertain; not ideal for unhedged directional trades)
Below 6080: Bearish tilt, with targets around T1: 6035 and T2: 6000 (near the 16-delta OTM put level)
On Wednesday, inflation data is scheduled for release. Anticipation alone may drive volatility, so it’s something to keep on the radar for educational scenario planning.
Potential bullish bounce off pullback resistance?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 6,026.51
1st Support: 5,871.75
1st Resistance: 6,099.49
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
SPX: another ATHThe positive track for S&P 500 continued for another week. The index reached a fresh new all time highest level during the previous week, at the level of 6.090. November jobs data were in the center of attention of investors, which witholded the positive sentiment during the first week of December. The US economy added 227K new jobs, which was modestly higher from the market estimate. Despite the relatively stable jobs market, the CME FedWatch Tool is showing the expectation of market participants that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps at their December meeting, with 85% odds.
Tech companies were again in the spotlight of investors. However, this week, same as previous, retailers were also in the focus. It comes after a summary of estimates of sales for holidays in the US, where Black Friday shopping was the first estimate. The traditional New Year holidays season is coming as of the end of December, from which retailers should additionally benefit.
At the dawn of a new year, HSBC provided their estimates for the year 2025. As per their analysts, the S&P 500 could continue to reach higher levels. HSBC estimate is the level of 6.700. They are supporting their view on the index, with the slow but resilient US economy, “and some margin expansions”.
S&P 500 Outlook: Navigating Volatility with CautionRecent Performance: The S&P 500 has faced notable volatility recently, driven
by fluctuating Federal Reserve policies and various economic indicators.
Currently at 5930.85, the index reflects broader market trends that have
seen significant declines across major indices. Notably, only 25% of S&P
stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average, pointing to underlying
weakness despite some sectors demonstrating resilience, particularly
technology and consumer discretionary.
- Key Insights: Investors should remain cautious given the current market
conditions. The technology sector, exemplified by strong performances from
companies like Apple and Nvidia, appears to be a safe haven amid broader
declines. The focus should be on waiting for confirmation of potential
market reversals before making new investment commitments, given the
uncertain narratives around inflation and Federal Reserve policies.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts remain cautious about the S&P 500's immediate
trajectory. The prevailing sentiment is to be watchful for confirmations of
market changes, with emphasis on inflation dynamics and central bank
strategies heavily influencing market movements. Market experts continue to
monitor sector performance closely, noting that while technology shines,
financials lag behind with notable weakness.
- Price Targets: For next week, the key price targets and stop levels are as
follows:
- Next week targets: T1: 6000, T2: 6060
- Stop levels: S1: 5848, S2: 5770
The S&P 500 must stay above 5900 to indicate healthier market conditions, and
short traders should be vigilant as they consider market dynamics with potential
reversals in play.
- News Impact: Recent hawkish stances from the Federal Reserve, coupled with
economic data surrounding PCE inflation, have contributed to the S&P 500's
volatility. While there are glimmers of hope for a rally, the hovering risk
of recession remains. Increased consumer confidence and monitoring housing
market metrics will be crucial in assessing future movements within the
index.
Conclusion: Amid current market volatility, investors should adopt a cautious
approach, observing key support and resistance levels as the S&P 500 navigates
the complexities of end-of-year trading dynamics.
Major Indexes Face Downturn: What's Coming Next?◉ S&P 500 SP:SPX
● The long-term trendline support has been breached.
● The immediate support range is identified around the 5,650 to 5,700 levels.
◉ Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC
● The Nasdaq Composite has rebounded from its long-term trendline support, demonstrating resilience amid economic uncertainty.
◉ NYSE Composite TVC:NYA
● The NYSE Composite has found support at its trendline and may bounce back from this important level.
◉ Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI
● After a consecutive decline over ten days, the index has surpassed its trendline support and is approaching the next support zone between 41,500 and 42,800.
Overall, all indices are anticipated to recover shortly, with expectations of robust performance from major stocks.
SPX: Fed`s game of marketsMarkets were happy prior to Fed's rate cut in December in expectation of an additional drop of 25 bps of reference interest rates. However, Fed Chair Powell said something that markets did not expect to hear - inflation is going to be persistent in 2025, hence, Fed would most likely cut rates by only 50 bps during the next year. The correction was immediate, and the S&P 500 dropped from the level of 6,080 down to 5.867. The index recovered a bit during Friday's trading session to the level of 5.930, after cooling inflation data.
All sectors included in the S&P 500 gained on Friday, indicating that the market most probably overreacted during the previous two days. Still, this jump in the market value was not enough to cover weekly losses. A cooling inflation data for November made markets revise their initial projections and value equities at higher levels. Still, considering that the Holiday season in Western markets starts in the middle of the week ahead, it is questionable whether the S&P 500 has the strength to reach for one more time level from two weeks ago.
S&P 500 Technical Outlook: Pivot Points and Market TrendsUS Futures Rise Notably in Holiday-Shortened Week
US stock futures were significantly higher on Monday after the S&P 500 posted its largest gain since early November on Friday.
Technical Overview:
As long as the price trades above 5971, the bullish trend will continue with potential upward targets at 5995 and 6022.
However, if the price closes below 5971 on a 4-hour (4H) candle, a bearish move toward 5936 may follow.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5971
Resistance Levels: 5995, 6022, 6053
Support Levels: 5936, 5919, 5895
Trend Outlook:
Downward by stability below 5971
Bullish Trend above 5971
SPX500 Short to Support Area Greetings there traders here is my idea on SPX 500
I believe that the downward movement will continue within the correction (1 2 3). I expect wave “3” to start moving very soon.
I think that the nearest target is the area of 5716 level, because there is a strong support area.
We can see that the price is managing itself for a future Downtrend Movement.
Traders make your own analysis before trading.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great Sell opportunity for SPX500
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad!
UNFINISHED BUSINESS DOWN SOUTHFOREXCOM:SPX500 we have a daily wick fill in progress to the up side creating a FVG on the 4hour.. with that being said, looking for resistance area between 5985-6000 then a continuation back southbound to fill the 4 hour imbalance then travel back north.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.23.2024🔮
📅Mon Dec 23
⏰10:00am
CB Consumer Confidence
📅Tue Dec 24
⏰8:30am
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Durable Goods Orders m/m
⏰10:00am
New Home Sales
Richmond Manufacturing Index
📅Thu Dec 26
⏰8:30am
Unemployment Claims
11:00am
Crude Oil Inventories
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,869.57
1st Support: 5,707.08
1st Resistance: 6,093.53
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
SPX Ascending Wedge BreakSPX had a clean break and retest of its ascending wedge last week. It was a strong move back up off of 5850, but it rejected on the retest. Range is now from 5,850 to ATH.
Looking to see if bulls can reclaim that trendline or not. For now I'd be bullish above 5,850 and bearish below. Downside target would be the election gap fill and/or the previous ATH around 5,669. We're still near ATH so that will continue to be the upside target. Long confirmation would come if it reclaimed the wedge + the descending trendline above.
$SPX - idea from the historyI've just faced an unpublished idea about SP:SPX . Will publish it in the mid on the road. )
Does not constitute a recommendation.
#furoreggs #investing #stocks #shares #idea #forecast #trading #analysis
If you want to discuss, please subscribe and challenge this point of view.
The S&P500 is struggling to reach its previous peak
The S&P500 is approaching the 5914-5892 support range on the one-hour timeframe after a price decline. This area acts as strong support due to previous reactions and a crossover with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The price reaction to this support area indicates buyers’ willingness to increase their strength. The bullish candles that will form after hitting this level indicate a possible price reversal.
If this level holds, a move towards the targets of 6033 and then 6126 is possible in the short term. However, a break of the support level of 5892 could lead to a further decline and a drop to lower ranges. Traders should pay attention to the price reaction to these ranges as well as trading volume.
SPX500 Rebounds: Market Optimism or Fed Reassessment in Focus"The SPX500 is bouncing back from the FOMC sell-off, signaling market optimism or reassessment of the Fed's stance. Key drivers include rate expectations, upcoming economic data, and sector performance. Watch for sustained momentum or signs of caution.
SPXUSD Daily Has A Inverse Cup & Handle Hey fellow traders and followers! I have to point out a possible inverse cup & handle and targets if she plays out in SPX Oanda.
Breaking point on daily is 5881.6 after which would trigger bears to take over the show and bring us down to the measured move of 5751.3 area. If that area breaks after being tested with a fail we falllll ---
-----
--5643.3------------
Market sits in no man's land I like to call it being bulls and bears on both sides of this rope in a tug of war. Be very very cautious at this time as charts in bigger TF's are starting to spell( FALL )
Don't get hurt on this one as this fall will give you more than just a scrape on the knees, more like a broken leg or worse.
Trade with caution and best of luck in all your trades. Cheers!
