XOM trade ideas
Exxon time to Exxit?1. Broke Trendline
2. Multiple higher high attempt in Price action but fails and now we can see a lower low
3. RSI decreasing with RSI over bought a week a go
4. EMAs crossing over with the price action breaking through the EMAs.
** Fundamentals play strongly in pulling the trigger as we foresee weak oil prices remaining depressed for a while.
Exxon Mobil ($XOM) - Breakout with RetestExxon Mobil broke it's uptrend trend-line late last week. Today we saw a retest of the broken trend-line with reasonable rejection and notable volume near the highs. I'll be looking to target the 39.3 area.
LONG XOMKeep your trading simple
Bullish Swing Long
T1 = minimum risk reward 1:1
I always leave 1/3 of my position for long term gains - moving my stop to my entry if I need to give room for the volatility or using trailing stop for maximum gains.
Not a financial advise - trade smart trade safe.
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LONG: EXXON MOBIL CORP. (Petroleum, Oil, Gas)• Ref. the effects of COVID-19 and the OPEC (& Russian) trade disputes fuling the fall of Oil prices.
• The FIA halting all motorsport events until JUL 2020 (Austrian Grand Prix).
• EXXON MOBIL have a sponsorship deal with Aston Martin Red Bull Racing (Formula1 team)
~ Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc. IPO in Feb 2019
• After the effects covid start to leave the spotlight, we may see the price of petroleum rise and companies such as XOM begin to operate at higher capacities.
LONG TERM TRADE -- Optimum target: ~ March/April 2021
Exxon -57% in 77 days and now BULL MARKET?Thanks for viewing.
- Exxon lost 57% in 77 days and has since bounced strongly - so are we in a new bull-market?
I would give my answer as a resounding no. Why?
- Mostly because crude oil is at 30 year lows which renders all upstream activities drastically unprofitable - how unprofitable? Some estimates of Exxon's break even price per barrel are over $70 a barrel ($74 in this article; www.theguardian.com). So each barrel produced, is produced at a significant loss. It would be far more profitable to buy crude on world markets and stop all exploration or production. This would probably not be a long-term solution, but it is being considered instead of locking in a $60 plus loss per barrel.
- It seems that at these crude prices that Exxon may even need to write down the value of all exploration and production assets to, or close to, zero. This happened recently for unprofitable shale oil producers - all their equipment was specialised, involved in a now universally unprofitable industry, with few buyers, and would have cost more to transport than would be gained from any sale - so when reality struck, it struck hard.
- If suddenly forced to re-value oil reserves they would have a negative value as the oil would cost far more to extract than to leave in the ground. The option to "just stop extraction" isn't there in some cases - as capping a well may damage the resource and incur significant future expense to re-open.
- This is a situation similar to that faced by European (and soon American) Banks due to negative interest rates; They now have liabilities on both sides of the balance sheet. The liabilities remain liabilities, but what were once assets are now cash-flow negative. Pretty hard to make money like that.
- What hope is there? Oil prices may rise, but not in 2020 I feel. So some pain will need to be incurred.
- The Fed is acting as buyer of last resort picking up corporate debt at 100 cents on the dollar with no regard to the credit-worthiness of the issuer. Although, they are not targeting individual Companies yet and Oil and Gas businesses continue to announce bankruptcy.
- The consumer (downstream) activities may still be profitable, although the overall revenue should be expected to be down.
I read two forecasts for EPS to be reported tomorrow. $0.04 from Investing.com and a consensus expectation of $0.02 from another site that had a view that prices would rise 10%. If you are bullish on earnings like that, I don't see how.
Anyway, let's see what happens. Protect those funds (I see prices below $23 before the end of '20).
Short on Exxon Mobil $XOMFundamental analysis:
With oil currently trading at around 18$/barrel, it's going to be really tough for oil companies to be operating on a profit for the foreseeable future. Oil production equipment isn't meant to be halted so we can even expect extra logistical cost to storing all of it. Once travel ban is lifted around end of june, i will look to switch to a more bullish position.
Technical analysis:
Held off posting this idea once I saw the right shoulder of the pattern break but it seems we won't have a daily close over it which means the H&S pattern is still in play. Conservative traders might look to wait for the neckline to break @ around 39$, personally will gradually increase my position as I see this play out. Earnings is in 7 days so watchout for a pre-earnings rally; it's a great opportunity to get a great entry price if it pans out.
Currently there's a bearish divergence that was formed on the MACD
As you can see our targets line up perfectly with the .618 fibonacci level where we might see a reversal or continuation depending on how the situation develops. Cheers and goodluck
TP1 @ 39.00$
TP2 @ 35.75
My 3 screens layers (from Alexander Elder)In the book The New Trading for a Living, Alexander Elder describes an useful and mechanic way to analyze and filter opportunities for investing.
The 3 layers have a main purpose these are:
Top screen = censorship purpose (this one is the TOP SCREEN)
Intermediate screen = determine if there is an opportunity
Bottom screen = refine the short
What do I check on each screen?
Any additional idea or better way to improve this one is welcomed.
XOM oil playFundamentals
ExxonMobil, is an American multinational oil and gas corporation It is the largest direct descendant of John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil, it the 6th largest oil and gas company in the world after China National Petroleum Company (CNPC). As oil prices plunged below 0 dollars for the first time in history due to the COVID-19 outbreak, ExxonMobil share price took a huge fall from the $70 per share to $30 per share. A major influencing factor behind the oil price is the level of Demand which due to lockdown restriction drastically decrease as a result had a direct impact on the oil price.
The Asian/pacific together with North America region accounts for 60% of the oil demand making them key region for determining possible demand trends and As China has demonstrated its ability to contain COVID-19 pandemic thus are gradually restoring economic activity in some of its regions, together with the announcement made in the US (where XOM has a 4% market share) of the key measures that will be implemented to contain the pandemic the is a good possibility of restoring economic activity in the US which will play a huge factor in the increasing the demand for oil
Technical
The Price of $30 per share has shown to be a great psychological support level which can be traceback 20 years back together with the price of $39 per share where price consolidated after testing the psychological level of $30 per share we are looking for price to continue to consolidate around the $39 per share before breaking to the upside
BearMore bad news for oil, and reports come out next week. Don't see uptrend anytime soon, Exxon on a 20 year discount. If doesn't hold current levels, I think will fall to next gap levels.
XOM (Exxon Mobile)stock seems to have bottomed, now trading above the 5day ema. stock attempted gap fill and was rejected. would love to see the stock fill the gap to confirm a trend reversal
Setup for a nice potential bull runIf the price punches through the 200EMA and he fast MACD goes though 0 I'll be in.
More than just a 1H XOM chartPre oil deal/no-deal set up. Swing high horizontal + bottom of the channel diagonal supports held well on Friday. Tonight's decision might define not only $XOM's near-term fate but the direction of the broad market. Stocks follow oil.
My chart for XOM, next resistance is miles away!As you can see, XOM had a clear descending triangle chart pattern... and then Corona struck. These support/resistances have been successful for XOM since mid 2016. This is just to give you guys my overview and what price points I am looking for on XOM.
Hedging bets on energyThere's a lot of action in energy stocks today as Donald Trump announced on Twitter that Saudi Arabia and Russia are closing in on a deal to cut production by 10-15 million barrels per day. This is going to be challenging, since the two countries only produce 23 million barrels per day between them, so they'd have to cut their production in half. Shortly after Trump's tweet, a Russian spokesman announced that in fact no specifics have been discussed, so it seems that Trump's tweet was very premature.
Nevertheless, there's some reason to think that Saudi Arabia, at least, will cut production. Last night, Senator Kevin Cramer said he had told Trump that "we should not keep armed forces in Saudi Arabia protecting their oil assets while the Kingdom declares war on our oil producers." In other words, Cramer told Trump to twist the Kingdom's arm by threatening to withdraw US troops amid a rebellion in Yemen and threats from Iran. Assuming that this is, in fact, the strategy Trump is using, I think it's very likely to succeed whether Russia plays ball or not.
Here are a couple other bullish signs for energy: the US is addressing the storage shortage by renting out space in the strategic oil reserve to private companies, and crude inventories are falling in China for the first time in months because refineries have reopened there.
On the other hand, there are bearish signs too: Rystad Energy predicts a large decrease in energy demand in April, and today's jobless claims report would tend to confirm that. 6 million jobs lost means the economy is in a very bad place, and the weakening of demand may persist long after lockdowns are over.
It's hard to resist taking some positions in the energy sector with so many bargain dividends available, such as the nearly 10% dividend on Exxon-Mobil. (And Exxon should have the cash to be able to sustain that dividend even if oil prices remain weak.) However, what if oil prices continue to fall? For that scenario, it's useful to have a hedge.
I am hedging my Exxon-Mobil position with an oil tanker stock, specifically Frontline, Ltd. (FRO). Tankers and producers have been moving opposite each other, with tanker stocks gaining when oil prices fall and falling when oil prices rise. That's because weak oil prices lead producers to ship their oil to storage locations, which increases demand for tankers. Frontline has a nearly 20% dividend yield right now, so I should make money from dividends on both sides of this trade, regardless of what happens to prices.
I also have a smaller hedge in USO, an ETF that holds physical oil. This is because rising oil prices may not always be good for Exxon-Mobil. What if oil prices rise because big producers like Exxon have cut production? Then both my Exxon stock and my Frontline stock would fall even as physical oil prices rise. So I want to have some physical oil in my portfolio too, to offset the effects of any Exxon-Mobil production cuts. Unfortunately there are no dividends from USO, which is why I have only a small hedge here.
