GAIL & Natural Gas FuturesQuite a corelation
GAIL ( black) & Natural Gas Futures (Red)
And since its a single product company, the coorelation is no rocket science.
Once done on a yoy PCH change the chart becomes very intuitive.
TTF1! trade ideas
Natural Gas at supportNat Gas, the widow maker - is at the 100 month ma (green line), which was a resistance level during it's consolidation and should be a support here. How much of a bounce it can get is hard to say but my guess is at least to 6 dollars sometime this year. This is a monthly chart.
Decision time for natural gas The daily candle that just opened is forming in a very interesting place. It will encounter some strong resistance around the $2.50 mark, which coincides with the last candle and down trend line since December. If Nat gas manages to push thru and break above $2.50 and close above the down trend line, then game on to +$3. If it fails at $2.50 and heads lower to the recent low at $2.39, it is likely to break much lower and make new lows , around the $2.20 mark.
Bobby's Homework Assignment2.9.23 This video is about natural gas which looked like it found buyers, and it did move higher for a while, but the market got more difficult. I wanted to show how I would look at the price action to judge various turning points in this market using gaps. This is an exercise in looking at reversal patterns, Using the tools that we talked about to judge price action to gauge short-term market reversals. Nothing works for everybody... you decide what works for you.
Natural Gas Futures Quarterly Log ChartWho likes catching falling knives, seriously?
#naturalgas #fintwit
NG buyNatural gas mcx
Might be an aggressive trade..
Buy once trade triggers.
Sl current low , add some tollerance
Nat Gas Accumulation TimeWe're coming in to a zone near the $3 mark where we belive it would be prudent to start accumulating long positions in natural gas. Using Elliott Wave anaylsis in conjuction with fundamental analysis we're pretty certain there's a huge upside to natural gas. We're unsure as to whether this will be a wave 3 or a wave C to the upside, but ultimately that doesn't matter as both will provide us with an upside target of at least $10+. Fundamentally there will be a bigger surge in natural gas demand as it has become evident that the world is not ready for renewable energy to support our power needs (if it ever will be able to support us entirely) so 'cleaner' fuels such as natural gas will be used in the immediate and near term to meet the global energy demands. As always with trading we don't need to know everything, we just need to be on the right side of the movements to make money and we're pretty certain this is going to be a huge move to the upside in the coming weeks and months.
Natural gas cylces- New support soon? Cycles & sentiment- work in tandem
Natural gas now moving into mid-term cycle support
Natural gas bottom soonIs there any more beat chart then NATGAS? Weekly RSI, Daily RSI, Bullish divergence. The World Energy crisis. Still in winter. It is all in. I am buying since 6 USD every 0.5 USD down...
NG: The End (of $2.50 prices (for now))Natural gas has been even more wild than usual.
There is "only" about a 30 year history to go off of to look at this commodity. Even so, we have actually had a few notable firsts.
The 2022 rally was one of the most violent in history. It went from a 2020 low near $1.50 to $9 in May 2022. In percentage terms, it was not quite as good as in 2002-03, where natural gas bottomed out near $2 and then went as high as $15 for about a week.
It also lasted a while. Prices remained near highs for the better part of a year - about 8 months. Compare this to 2005 (barely 4 months near the highs) or 2008 (spent ~5 months climbing before a crash). Notably, though, the 2022 natural gas highs have nothing on 2003-2008 as a whole, where it barely went below $6 that whole time.
Just to make sure this makes it into the record books, the decline has also been catastrophic. Jan. 2023 was the worst month for natural gas since Jan. 2001. If you take the worst 30-day period (sometime in mid-Dec to mid-Jan) of this decline, you should find it is actually the worst 30-day performance for natural gas ever in percentage terms.
Basically, it is at historically oversold levels. Not only that, but you can see clear & repeated demand wicks as well the major support level here. This alone should add up to a substantial bull case.
The only thing that I don't really like about going long here is that I see a bunch of traders are focused on buying or trying to buy. However, when looking into the actual market data, I was surprised to find that many more people are currently short on natural gas.
I think the bearish pattern (head & shoulders) from 2022 has completely played out by now. In the past, natural gas takes years to recover from this sort of move (see 2008.) We seem to be making history lately, though, so why not a more substantial rally?
Feb 6,22-NG-Going down still or SidewayI zoomed out to the Weekly chart so you can see just how brutal the price has dropped over the last 8 weeks.
Question is, will it continue? Or is this going to be a bottom?
Answer is to wait this week out to see if price levels out or not. Obviously if price ends the week below 2.3 then we are still going down.
I'm looking for a decent close around 2.5 or 2.6. Then I will monitor price next week to see if there is a chance to break up to 3.
Remember we are heading into warmer weather soon and we have had a pretty warm winter overall so supplies are pretty full. Price may not do much for the next few months.
We shall see what happens. Stay safe.
Heiko
The Falling Wedge From Hell Ends February 6, 2023NYMEX:NG1! AMEX:BOIL AMEX:UNG
Triple Divergence on the RSI, MACD, several weeks without crossing the 10 day moving average. I'm not going to suggest we go straight to $8 but I don't see why a cat thrown off the One World Trade Center can't bounce a couple feet.
Bobby's Homework Assignment2.5.23 In this video we finished up with oil. I opened up the chart a little bit so you can see more clearly where the gaps were and how the market Retested gaps and how this relates to how you might manage today's bar Based on caps from previous days. To be clear, The market can create a gap on today's bar and you can manage the market with today's gap. Open up an oil Daily chart....And look for these gaps and how the markets retest them ....It is worth the time. if you get 80% of what I'm saying and you're not sure about the other 20%... Don't fret, if you have 70% you'll figure out the rest of it if you focus on it for a week or two or a month .In much the same way there could be issues with ABCD patterns which work great but sometimes there's a challenge with picking the A point of an ABCD pattern....most of the time it is not an issue...You will figure it out when it is. Regarding the closing statement of this video: I will do fewer videos, I don't really have a choice. I will generally look at fewer markets because they don't have any real value to my trading. With all the things that I have to tend to at this stage of my life, I end up not having time to trade and have any sense of balance. I've had these issues over the past 4 years but the fact that we grow older, and our physiology changes requires adaptation. I'm considering Occasional videos on trades that I take as long as I don't become a signal service. One of my students was telling me there is a well-known trader large following in tradingview...Who offers professional training and a signal service. When he has losing trades, some of his followers become contentious and angry. My personal belief is that if you can't trade without the signal service you shouldn't be Trading. There are many reasons why that doesn't work. I'd advise my students to trade the futures market. You should be trading only one market at a time when you're learning how to do this comma and you have to have enough capital to do it. If it's your money you have to make the decision when to take your profits. Actually, if it's your money and you're taking a trade you probably will make your decision to take profits differently than the signal service. I could go on and on about this but there is no need for this from my point of view. If you want to trade the market and make money, Learn how to read the market comma get some professional training if you need it.... and make your own decisions... and go back to analyze you're thinking before and after the trade to look for improvement. First and foremost, if you don't have enough money and you're not realistic you shouldn't trade. The government in the united states Is trying to eliminate the qualification exams for doctors and lawyers to be accepted into professional schools.... all In the name of equality. This is the pathway to mediocrity and failure . If you want to be successful, don't settle on Equality, make darn sure that you're going to be excellent, not equal, before you start trading.
2023 Widowmaker Spread BreakdownThis idea is an analysis of this season's widowmaker spread breakdown done in hindsight for future reference. See idea linked below for last season's widowmaker analysis. Idea explained on the chart.
Snapshot of chart before publishing distortion:
i'm ripping off someone else's idea with this trend line NYMEX:NG1! AMEX:BOIL AMEX:UNG TSX:HNU NYSE:FCX
The trend line is from someone else's post. the Fib Channel has a convenient crossing of paths that fits my broken clock Long strategy. E I A Report Monday will provide some clarity...
NG Natural Gas NG is extremely manipulated and oversold. All eyes on NG upside and seems like the turning point will be around $1.89
Commodities and Currencies Dont match the Stock Market behaviorAs an ex commodities guy, I remember many times when the stock market sold off and how commodity futures behaved prior and concurrently. Often times there has been tops or turns in commodities before there a reversal in stocks. Can this be one of those, or are commodities wrong and getting the economy wrong?
Natural Gas Short term target 4.35, long term target 2.33 Natural Gas recently hit the critical support at 3.4 and I see strong technical bounce to 4.3 level, hitting down sloping resistance line (red) which also coincides with Fib .618 level. Overall long term sentiment is still bearish, if the NG doesn't break above the 4.5 in upward momentum, we might see it crash towards 2.33 before mid of 2023.
Let me thoughts and comments on this post.
Nat Gas looking oddly similar to BTC chart before a deep declineI am not saying this will happen, in fact I am personally bullish at the moment based on a number of factors. (For more on why I am bullish check out my channel for my nat gas trade)
I thought it was worth mentioning that BTC price action over the past few years is lining up very similarly to the price action of nat gas over the past year. Based on this vague information I am still bullish, but as I explain in my other post I will be bearish as we approach a particular zone. That is when I will pull this chart back up and compare the direction between the two prices.
Just something interesting to watch over the next few months!
NG on September 24, 2001The last time Natural Gas traded at 150% away from it's 200 Day Moving average was September 24, 2001. 28 trading days later, futures had rallied 80%.
NYMEX:NG1!
BUYNG- As every trader knows, this is the most complicated commodity to trade, very aggressive with huge potential to win/lose.
On weekly chart, NG is now in multi year POC touching multi year trend line and RSI pointing 28.
Historically, each time when weekly RSI was at this level we have seen huge correction of more than 100%.
Trade safe.
Jan 30,22-NG-Almost long? Not so much!So NG price gapped down from the Big Boys on the weekend, putting the price of NG to almost a 2 year low. Not good for people like me that wanna go LONG and make some money.
Anyway, hold onto your shorts and keep waiting for the low...someone told me maybe 2.5 - looks like maybe they were correct :-)
Anyway, I'm still waiting (isn't that a song?) - doesn't look like anything is gonna change anytime soon. While the U.S. is in a cold snap right now, the long term forecast says seasonal norms so I don't see any crazy price spikes coming anytime soon.
Guess we shall see if we can trade the S n P 500 on Wed depending on how much the Fed raises rates.
Stay safe all.
Heiko
