Tesla (TSLA) Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend OpportunitiesHigher Time Frame (HTF) Perspective (Weekly Chart)
Tesla has been in a strong uptrend since April 22, 2024, when it bounced from a major demand zone after being in a downtrend science Nov 2021.
with a clear Elliot wave 1,2,and 3 formations,
the impulsive Wave 3 on the HTF appears complete, with an expected retracement to Wave 4 levels in the $326–$293 zone, which aligns with a major demand area. This zone could serve as an excellent entry point for the next impulsive Wave 5 upward.
Lower Time Frame (LTF) Perspective (4H Chart)
Within the broader Wave 3, we see a potential wave extension forming as the 4H Wave 5, targeting the $470 level (1.618 Fibonacci extension of the Wave 3 move).
A strong resistance area is forming near the $365 swing high, which must be cleared for further upside confirmation.
Strategy Breakdown
1. Scenario: Bullish Continuation
Buy Stop Entry: Place a buy stop order above the last swing high at ~$365 to confirm breakout momentum.
Stop Loss: Below the swing low at ~$320, protecting against false breakouts.
Take Profit Target: Aim for $470, the projected extension of the lower timeframe Wave 5.
This setup ensures capturing the next leg higher while avoiding premature entries.
2. Scenario: Bearish Pullback
If the price fails to break above $365 and pulls back, monitor the broader HTF Wave 4 retracement.
Key demand zones are at $326–$293, supported by:
Fibonacci retracement levels (50%–61.8% of the Wave 3 move).
Historical accumulation zones.
Action: Wait for consolidation or bullish reversal patterns in this zone before entering long positions for the anticipated HTF Wave 5 targeting higher highs.
Risk-Reward Analysis
Upside Potential: From a confirmed breakout at $365, the potential gain to $470 offers a reward of approximately 105/share, which is a 29% upside.
Downside Risk: With a stop loss at $320, the risk per share is about 45/share, yielding a Risk-Reward Ratio of ~1:2.3.
Adjust position sizing to maintain your account's risk tolerance (e.g., 1%-2% per trade).
Analysis Summary
Tesla's technical setup provides two viable trade scenarios:
Riding the LTF Wave 5 to $470 if the $365 resistance breaks.
Waiting for the HTF Wave 4 pullback to the $326–$293 demand zone for a safer long entry.
"Be patient, monitor volume and momentum, and let price action confirm your entries."
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade responsibly and consider consulting a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
