TLT Ending PatternMay get another push down, but this is looking very similar to an ending wave pattern.
TLT trade ideas
Bond King ETFs in the action Through July 12, active fixed-income ETFs have taken in a net $44 billion, about a third more than all of last year and more than three times as much as 2022
Bullish Divergence + Pinbar in TLTI'll start with the weekly RSI bullish divergence off the 2022 and 2023 yearly lows. In addition to that, there is also a nice bullish pinbar on the 4M chart. This also hints to a possible bottom/bullish reversal. Price is now pushing against the trendline resistance (from Mar 23' to Jul 24'). Once price is able to break and hold this area it could really start moving. There is some overhead resistance that the market will need to overcome and I expect plenty of volatility, so safest play may be to have a stop just below the 23' lows and then stay hands off and give it room to run.
Ishares 20+ Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $90sIshares 20+ Treasury Bond NASDAQ:TLT are particularly sensitive to interest rates: the price moves up when they are lowered and down when they rise. Locally, I'm witnessing banks lower their interest rates for CDs and shorten the duration for those with high-yielding returns. The general political rhetoric, especially due to the election cycle, is a push for the Federal Reserve to drop them. Now, despite the possible negative economic implications of lowering interest rates too soon if inflation is high, there is a good probability they may be lowered (even slightly) in 2024... perhaps September?
This analysis isn't to time the bottom perfectly, though. Instead, it's a probability assessment. Personally, TLT in the low $90s is in a long-term "buy-zone".
Target #1 = $104
Target #2 = $122
Target #3 = $170+ (very long-term view / economic crash... let's hope not, though)
$TLT Treasury Bond ETF Inverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT Treasury Bond ETF Inverse Head & Shoulders, In technical analysis of Treasury Bond ETFs, an inverse head and shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal signal. It occurs when the ETF's price forms three distinct troughs, with the middle trough ("head") being the lowest and the two outer troughs ("shoulders") being higher. A "neckline" is drawn connecting the highs of the two shoulders. When the price breaks above this neckline, usually with increased volume, it confirms the pattern and signals a potential shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. The distance between the head and the neckline can be projected upward from the breakout point to estimate a price target for the potential rally. However, traders often combine this pattern with other indicators like moving averages or oscillators for further confirmation and risk management.
Rolling (IRA): TLT June 21st 86 Short Put to Nov 15th 83... for a .55 credit.
Comments: With the June 86 at greater than 50% max, rolled it down and out to the November 15th 83 for a .55 credit (where I currently don't have a "rung" on). I collected .93 for the June 86; with the .55 here, I've collected a total of 1.18.
Primarily looking to reduce a smidge of risk in this position, since my highest strike is at the 86.
Market Update - 7/7/2024• back to large cap growth tech dominance
• rest of the market is struggling
• number of breakouts are increasing but the failure rate increases as well
• some select breakouts are working
• still cautious
TLT is about to launch!This thing is about to take off like a bat outa hell. IF the FED decide to cut, it'll be because markets broke down and they're reacting to the news (central banks have an uncanny ability to screw things up and then overreact to them down the road).
I anticipate a larger cut then 50 basis points. I anticipate 100 to 200 basis point cut, which means NASDAQ:NVDA will collapse taking the rest of the market down with them.
Then the FED will possibly cut again in September, and hold for the rest of the year (since they want to appear impartial before the election).
This last half of the year will be the bubble year, and everything will moon imo. I think after NASDAQ:TLT I'd invest the proceeds into NYSE:NEM calls which is going to quadruple.
As always NFA. Please follow me and turn on notifications to get my updates and thoughts on the charts as I frequently comment. Also I will be releasing an options play this Friday that will give a 10-20x return on this idea. Also, check out my previous threads as they hold details that inform on other charts, and definitely check out my previous NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:TMF ideas.
TLT Trouble or the Treasury to the rescue ???TLT is the chart posted and what could be a wave d down or MUCH WORST ,I tend to lead on MUCH worst meaning MUCH higher rates like 78 I have NO trade but thought the TLT would have held up into july 11th turns this means much more weakest NOT GOOD at all for STOCK MARKETS
$TLT Breaking Four Year Downtrend?Looks to me that NASDAQ:TLT may be finally breaking a downtrend (Interest Rates Reversing Lower?). It is too early to tell for sure but it is an interesting development.
This could be a double edge sword. Rates coming down may be good for stocks short term but longer term it may well mean the bond markets are starting to see a recession ahead. That would not be good for equities.
This is may develop into a trade. All TBD.
IF the FED cuts, bonds will launch (20x Insurance Play Inside)Can't overrule the politicization of the FED and the rigging of the numbers. If CPI comes in 3.3 or lower the FED will cut rates.
I've also seen darkpool prints for TMF 3xTLT.
Here's an insurance play if the FED cuts rates: August 75 calls for TMF are .15. That's a return of 15-20x!! While waiting for the market to shake out.
Then I'd run into metals and miners...
Opening (IRA): TLT October 18th 84 Short Put... for a .98 credit.
Comments: Laddering out at intervals at strikes between 85 and 82, assuming they're paying.
This is naturally longer-dated than most will want to go, but is part of a TLT position made up of covered calls (stock + short call) and short puts, so that I'm getting paid for (a) short call premium; (b) dividends; and (c) short put premium over time.
Alternatively, it's a "hmm, I really need to get more BP deployed here because I don't really have shit on at the moment" sort of thing ... .
TLT long uptrendTlt that reflect basically usa bonds are in uptrend mainly due to future cut of rates in the usa! for moment its long!
$TLT - Triangle breakout watch!NASDAQ:TLT A breakout from this triangle could send it to $108 - $110.👀
TLT 20The 20-year bond index, I see a price reversal and the beginning of a new ascending wave, as well as a positive divergence on the daily, weekly and monthly frames.
TLT in up trendTLT long term Treasury ETF closed the week higher than the 50 week moving average.
Also it is breaking out above a triangle trend line.
Weekly RSI shows a succession of higher swing lows.
I think this chart shows that TLT, having had a huge bear run over several years, has finally turned around.
$TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond -- The Wall of Jerome TLT 20y treasury bonds is down 50% from highs. I call this chart "The Wall of Jerome". Descending RED wall clearly shows the overhead resistance.
Once the United States starts it's interest rate cutting cycle, this wall breaks.
I think we're getting there, slowly, but surely.
TLT current levelsthese are the current levels of TLT as they stand today with a bit of a curve instilled for illustrative purposes that may make the chart track as it would have before the invention of all that is good and just but before the one comes back to see his creation
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 23 - TLT - (7th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing Ishares 20+ Treasure Bond ETF (TLT), starting from the 6-Month chart. (For some reasons I read "Ishares" as "Israeli" XD.
The easiest money you can earn in 3 months!fundamental analysis of TLT suggests that the ETF's performance in 2024 will depend heavily on the direction of interest rates, inflation, and economic conditions. Investors considering TLT should carefully assess these factors and their risk tolerance before making an investment decision.
Hold onto your hamburgers NASDAQ:TLT : major turning point?
#us10y #gold #silver #dxy
Channel breakout on a daily close, line chart basis.
Market Update 5/25/2024Going through the usual stuff, my portfolio, performance, losses, mistakes, good trades, lessons learned and opinions for the next weeks. First time I make it public though and I plan to keep doing it weekly
Opening (IRA): TLT September 20th 83 Short Put... for a 1.08 credit.
Comments: Targeting the 52-week low here with a rung out in September (I've already got rungs on in April, May, June, etc.), which I think is unlikely to be touched in light of talk about the Fed cutting rates ... at some point in time.
Naturally, if I'm wrong, I'm also fine with picking up shares at a cost basis below the covered call setup I currently have on ... .
