even though they stink, can treasuries have a place as a safety?Im not a fan, but banks are! will they bounce in the next sell off as a hideout?
TLT trade ideas
TLT LongBreakaway Gap
Possible Double Bottom
Demand zone Confirmation
Entry 139
Stop 135
Target 1
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
Bond bull, bear gold and stocksTLT has been accumulating for the past 17 years it's about to go into it's biggest bull market!!! IMO
Deflationary collapse pending catalystTips go based on real rates and speculative forces have pushed the long end of the curve extremely far. Although counter to what most think we're in a deflationary cycle. Tlt is needing a catalyst to cause mayhem and question the FED's credibility. Powell will likely get fired this time
USG bond ETF $TLT options, inspired by CryptoHayesHello. This is my overnight setup for the weekend. I wanted to hold short or open long equities rather than bonds but it's not feasible at the moment.
Unfortunately this is posted after market close, but will serve as a journal for how poorly/fantastically I play it.
A funky strangle, with a 1:1:1 ratio:
Mar 19 +140C @ 0.65
Mar 19 +135P @ 1.45
Apr 16 +100P @ 0.07
Profit zone:
~$133 > x < ~$141
What I am planning:
For TLT to rise rapidly and CryptoHayes to be wrong, letting me roll/close in profit, covering the initial costs of all 3 positions along with profit. This is why i decided to buy the calls closer to the money. If I am wrong on Monday's directional close, I will likely close all 3 positions and take the loss. The expiries are not good.
Mistakes I can point out immediately:
I've chosen options too close to expiry
I expect movement and have not hedged for no mvement
I may have opened too early just to have a position open
Personal consumption is on the rise, and that may lead to inflation
Reason for the Mar 19 140C call: I am very bullish on bonds due to recent news. Stimulus, taxes confirmed not to be reduced. You've got to be mental to think the USG would want to raise rates. Though consumer spending is almost back to previous highs...
Reason for Mar 19 135P: Maybe it'll go down now. Reflation due to easing of Covid lockdowns.
Reason for Apr 16 100P: I'm certain this is not how you do it, but it's my "tail risk", cheap hedge in case yield hell breaks loose.
Better picture because the preview is missing some items:
% Compare of TLT and 30 year yield
Personal Consumption
What's CryptoHayes would have instead recommended: go ape mode on bitcoin, ape mode hedge on bond yields.
TLT ready to take off! Massive shorts in bond market. Given the current condition I think TLT is ready for 80% move to the upside and stock market to about to go through very rough liquidation imo. DXY is likely to hit all time high as well I think.
TLT rocket ready for Powell's launch sequenceWhile the bond market blood bath may scare some, I believe it is an opportunity to catch a fly with chopsticks Mr. Miagi style.
The narrative that bonds are selling off because of inflation fears is oversold hype and Guggenheim's CIO Scott Minerd and PIMCO's head of short-term management Jerome Schnieder agree.
www.guggenheiminvestments.com
www.youtube.com
Inflation is transient and with a liquidity supernova descending upon the markets, this will push short-term rates down leaving fixed-income investors chasing long-term (duration) bonds. The Fed itself will likely introduce some type of Twist style program expanding purchases of duration bonds. Add in the upcoming SLR exemption expiration and the historical long-term trend in the decline in the US10Y and the case for lower rates becomes very sexy.
Yellen is going to be dumping $1.1T into money markets.
www.bloomberg.com
SLR exclusion exemption may not be extended. Democrats are demanding higher banking restrictions. No SLR extension creates a bottleneck for O/N repos and warehousing.
www.ft.com
There is also a strong technical case as it is oversold and we've had a very bullish engulfing reversal candle. This looks primed to explode any day now. Additionally, the US10Y looks overbought with the classic evening star doji.
Minerd believes rates US10Y will hit -.5% by 2022. While I think that is a little on the extreme end of the range, I do believe 1.15% to 1.25% in the near term is realistic with .5%.
Disclaimer: At the time of writing I do hold longer-dated expiry ITM TLT calls.
TLT Support at old POC around 138.50 on the Volume ProfileHave to go back to early 2020 to find support at the Point of Control in TLT around 138.50
We have Topped the Stock Market!Clear Reversal in the Bond market, Buying Volume along with an Almost Full Hammer indicating a very likely possibility of a top in the stock market.
The Buying Volume this week was high and as strong as the Buying Volume Just BEFORE the March 2020 Crash.
After such a long run-up , it is about time we have that MAJOR Correction.
Short the Market, Long the Bond Market
20 Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT): Price direction estimates.My views what is happening in the bond market, what to look out for in the coming trading session
The 20 year Treasury Bond prices fell below the long-term price channel in the H4 price chart at around 147.40 support level on Feb 13, 2021, and recently bounced off 137.40 on Feb 26, 2021, indicated on the chart below, the same day we saw the sell-off and drop-in the stock market.
The closing price of the bond market Friday's session was just below 142.40, a critical level tested in the past and could be tested in future trades. The last H4 price candle closed in red, but relatively small compared to the previous H4 bull candle with a reasonable volume which indicates buyers are still holding on from the bounce we saw at 137.40 and 139.90.
I think 142.40 and 141.40 support lines are important if it's going to continue up. If it holds above 142.40, we could be looking at retesting the 144.90 resistance line at the bottom of the price channel and 146.40/147.40.
If it fails to get back above 142.40, 139.90 and 137.40 could be a potential support area.
9-13-9 buy for bondsa nice 9-13-9 buy signal on TLT daily. This signals a good trade for TLT and also signals a good period ahead for the stock market.
TLTBeautiful close to the week, definitely wasn't expecting a green close on the weekly. Still in a downtrend for now but I like it long here for a bounce.
TLT short Just the meat! I'm not here for likes! I'm not your mother or your brother!
Clearly TLT is still dropping on the monthly.
$130 incoming!
No end of the world insurance yet!
Goodluck.
๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ๐ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: $TLT Weekly. Capitulation!๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ๐ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: $TLT Weekly. Huge volume this week and hammering the 200ema. Could see a sharp bounce back from oversold conditions
$TNX $ZB_F $ZN_F $SPY $SPX $ES_F $VIX $QQQ $NDX $NQ_F $GLD $GDX $DXY #Bonds #Stocks #Trading
INFLECTION POINT -- Oil Reversal to Bounce TLT?Insane correlation here. Looking at last year's convergence, it took 66 days & 44 bars to be at new ATH on TLT.
US Equity Market could bottom out soonTLT
From a post view to analyze the market these days, "everybody" knows from the media that the reason is "fear of hyperinflation"
But how much inflation is high enough and when does this correction ends?
jump into my conclusion : the correction is ending soon.
Why?
there are 5 reasons to look for :
1 correction was triggered by diving T-note, looking at TLT, since the broke out from a 2B at early Feb, it accelerated, but approaching pre-pandenmic level.
2 raw material price on the massive run since last year, Copper and Crude oil had their times, but is approaching previous resistance
3 looking at nasdaq, 2Hr and 4Hr had made new lows but with MACD divergence
4 catalyst could be the freezing weather that send crude to the sky and the priced in stim bill, with dead line approaching, there still a big uncertainty in this, so could triggers some risk aversion
5 Nasdaq is approaching 12/18 quad witching support
When Commodity Trading Advisors Short Treasuries, You Short TooKeep shorting this junk. Inflation is here whether you like it or not.
TLTHaving fun yet? I'm not even going to act like I know what's going to happen next. But I am in some May calls. Support is holding and today felt like a blow off top in rates. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
