TLTNice geometry
It's a breakout and retest on lower timeframes
Would need a narrative to follow the arrow
But that's the path of least resistance imho
NOT TRADING ADVICE
TLT trade ideas
The "TLT" Bonds (Updated)Auctions have been releasing offering higher rates as of late. Our previous target of 61% retracement has been rejected so far. On the 1 hour, the previous high was broken with no new lows being made. On the 15 min we are at a light support. I would like to see a stronger support, however, due to recent auctions and higher yields, I could see more bonds being bought soon even with the Fed tapering. Let's see what happens. Yields normally fall when the price of bonds rise. This could be bullish for investors.
Closing (Margin): TLT June 17th 2 x 171/153 Back Ratio Spread... for a 39.10 credit.
Comments: Opened this puppy up for a 36.45 debit on TLT strength. (See Post Below). Taking some risk off by taking profit here a little shy of my profit target, as I've got another short TLT setup on already (a March 18th 151/2 x 163 back ratio). 2.65 ($265) profit; 7.3% ROC.
TLT EPISODE V: BURRY-dHe's apparently no longer short after opening positions near the local bottom
Here I want to see how real our breakout is
It's clearly broken the (dotted white) breakout line with a backtest
The (royal blue) median line from the ABC fork has acted as a resistance and it's above that
It's again above the 50day moving average which has golden crossed the 200 and all is well; with the sequence 50/100/200 being supportive in that order below price
In summary I believe this breakout is real, and can see there is decent volume on the breakout
Also there have been significant inflows into the TLT fund recently
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
TLT EPISODE VI: Full TiLTSo if price keeps running in the orange fork, by getting above the median it would become bullish: and that's the level we're trying to clear right now
After that it needs to get over the median line in the larger purple fork which price has been running in for some time
These also coincide with key resistance levels
The final target is around 190/200 as previously described
I expect all targets to hit within 6 months
But there are no guarantees in trading or markets of course
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
TLT Episode 4- A New HopeIn this series of 3 i have analysed the TLT chart using the action-reaction/ market geometry method
In this first chart I am showing the macro with pitchforks drawn off 5 major pivots
A,B,C,D,E
Trade at your own risk
TLT/LTPZAre you prepared for deflationary scenario? 10Y Breakevens at the top, you can play this by LONG TLT, SHORT LTPZ (15y TIPS)
Best,
20 year plus bond etfSince mid July, The price of the 20 year plus Bonds has touched or tested the top orange line about 8 times and has retraced 61% more times than not. Bonds going as low as $148 would meet the 200 ema and would be a retracement of 61% of the previous low. The previous has been broken. Let's see where the next level of support is. If this falls, the Yields should rise. Normally, stocks fall "for the most part" when this happens. Let's see if this holds true!
TLT Long Target 192Opened this position today
It's a clear break out this point
Has to hold the blue line to be valid
TLT is a bet on faltering growth and deflation
If both come into play we can see the 192 target
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Dollar Up, Vix Up, Bonds UpToday was for the bulls thus far but we're still in a dollar up, vix up, bonds up scenario
The TLT move does not look like a fake break and there is room to run on the RSI. There is no bear divergence.
According to previous moves on the VIX, it would need a green day tomorrow to have a chance of making a new high on this move
The dollar continues to grind marginally higher and i don't think the move is complete yet
NOT TRADING ADVICE
Short Bonds - why, and market review
Simple chart - There is a small dotted green line up top showing you divergence in the RSI.
You can see what happened, Bonds went way up. Now we have a much bigger divergence the other way in red.
So this sell off that saw the ES touched the 4500 area three times this week reminds me of the September low at 4250 same price action - which thrust up 500 points.
Both the Nasdaq and E Mini Futures returned to almost exactly 50% Fib weekly retracement - not luck, not a sell off in my opinion but just enough to confuse and liquidate a bunch of people.
I am short vol through a long position in SVXY outright and short bonds through TLT through 154 PUT options. The market is off the lows but most likely there will be an opportunity Monday to get in.
My upside target 4620 on the ES Futures to take these positions off - however I think we can go to ALL TIME HIGHS before puking epically - as the Fed taper is happening but we'll only get the details at Dec 15th Fed meeting.
If we get back to 4500 area in the ES - I will look to take a long positions through Futures, however did want that risk on over the weekend.
The orange arrows are a measure of volatility.
Six hour chart.
Do you feel lucky...well do ya? 🤠Look at the chart...then look at your portfolio...then look at the chart again.
Where do you think TLT is heading? Every time JNK/TLT touched the trendline, a TLT rally followed it, 4 times in the past 13 years. Do you think it will happen a 5th?
30Y at zero is something like ~200 on TLT, this is the best ROI trade right now IMO. Yes it will take a year or two, and if it happens sooner, then great! :)
No need to make comparisons to 1929...too many different factors at play. However, we also had a similar setup when YoY inflation was high back in 2007 with housing at all time highs... and remember where that ended up? ;)
Not saying anything will happen next week...but as a long term investor this is my bid over the next year.
If 13 year downward trendline breaks on JNK/TLT, I'm out of TLT...but until then...
TLT investment interesting?TLT is a more choppy ETF and currently over the $150 area, which is a key level.
I believe we could see the $162 again after the next drop. Due the volume profile it seems &147.80 is a good support and a worth investment.
$TLT Retrace and GoThis also looked to be a valid bearish cipher followed by a possible bullish 5-0 patter. However, I decided to assume that a double bottom has completed its measured move and will follow DOW's law with a 50% retrace. I believe the trend is still strong and after the correction will reach newer highs. Personally, I'm long here but acknowledge the short-term downside risk. Good Luck!
TLT BULLISHTLT is the 20+ year bond etf
I'm bullish on this to play a deflationary crash scenario
Chart looking bullish at the moment on macro
Target is a new ATH
Trade at your own risk
Opened: TLT June 17th 2 x 171/153 Put Back Ratio Spread... for a 36.45 debit.
Comments: Another put back ratio spread, this time longer-dated. Buying 2 x the 75 deltas and selling 1 x 50 delta to create a -100 delta short position in 20+ year paper on strength here. Will look to take profit at 110% of what I put it on for.
$spy $tlt Look for bonds to take out 152If bonds can take out 152 then there is an air pocket between 152-156 and you could see a very quick squeeze to 156. That would coincide with another drop in the market as well. At that point I am a seller of bonds and buyer of stocks. $spy may have another 2% downside.
If this is an inverted H&S then we could easily see top of volume range to 160 on tilt
Opening: TLT March 18th 2 x 163/151 Back Ratio Spread... for a 23.99 debit.
Comments: Buying 2 x the 75 delta puts and selling the 50 delta put strike in the March expiry on strength here to create a synthetic -100 net delta short position with a 151.01 break even in 20+ year paper. Will start to look to take profit at 110% of what I put it on for.
Credit - TLT Long 2023Idea for TLT:
- According to consumer expectations, US is already in a recession. Dow hit ATH through this, so a headfake is due.
- We have been patient, but Treasury auction today is a good turning point.
- Long Jan 20, 2023 145C for 8.60 debit
GLHF
- DPT
TLT +.41% / While 20Yr @ High Yield of Month 2.06%Today's 20 Year Auction was sloppy and dangerous for Wood Panel FanBoys.
We released the Mastif's who chased Eddie Munster off our land.
Alexandra put a few 10 Gauge Triple Otts in Steve's BUttocks for good
measure.
Hopefully, this will suffice.
IF not - it's on to more persuasive actions. Alex adores the thought.
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www.treasury.gov
Bonds are seeing further FED Props.
Jit's Nasty out there for the 007s.
ZN is barely hanging on... Price Objective for ZN 129.55
Structure is Weakening
DOW at Session Lows.
Crude Dumpster Fire.
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Bond Market Dislocations ahead.
TLT - WeeklyDivergences again for the Tilt - O - Whirl.
Just as the 007's were back to making 180 Hog Calls.
Signs, future signs, do not appear promising.
With a Failure to Break the Prior 152.71 Highs.
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You have a large Bagel to contend with for now.
139s remain open as do 134s.
