TLT - 3 Down 1.618 or 2.618Complete Wreckage.
Eddie Munster and Crew swing missed and
the bat came around, knocking them out.
It's over Bond Queens.
An amazing representation of Failure, is TLT.
Junk & Co remains Junk.
TLT trade ideas
TLT iShares 20 plus year treasury bond ETF nasdaq: tlt iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF Review
NASDAQ: TLT
They have at their disposal the trend since 2007 as well as a key support zone.
Thank you for your support, greetings.
L.E.D in Spain as of 06/21/2022
Takuri Line : reversal sign.Alright, interesting candle on the one week on TLT :
In my opinion this is a Takuri Line. The body is small and the close happens near the high (I am not 100% satisfied with this classification since it has an upper shadow but it is 16% of overall candle). The lower shadow is more than three times the body length (3.37). So it fits the takuri line definition.
It happens at an extreme low - lowest point in over 120 weeks - which would also be a good environment for the Takuri line to appear. It is statistically a solid reversal candle.
If we gap up tomorrow and finish above 116 in the next three weeks we could be setting a new up trend that leads us to 132 - 133.... (we couled retest 108)
IT IS VERY BULLSIH - I know. I think macro factors favor a more bullish bias...
we'll see.
Good luck.
$TLT a longer term long position Looking at the trends on TLT I believe we are at the bottom. I have set some rough targets based on the trends, previous resistance and fibs.
TLT Pivotal Equality Test UnderwayIn this update we review the recent price action in TLT and identify the next high probability trading pattern and price objectives to target
TLT ReboundFollowing TLT -
I looked at the candlestick formation on the monthly chart and given historicl statistics we apparently have a little bit over 50% chance of a reversal of the downward trend we have experienced so far. If this is the case, we could see $126 over the next 4 weeks based on my calculations.
I would be interested to see if you have the same views.
TLT - Another Month of Wreckage 7/7 Due007s who bought the dip...
Ripped.
It's now a comedy and further evidence...
Throwing Capital into a toxic cesspool does not produce
a Hulk, Spiderman, or Marvel Character who defies the laws
of common sense.
Buy this Chart and LOSE.
SPY, BONDS & FED BALANCE-SHEET - (zoomed)A place to view T-Yields, Fed Funds, and Money Supply against TLT and the SP500 .
SPY, BONDS & FED BALANCE-SHEETA place to view T-Yields, Fed Funds, and Money Supply against TLT and the SP500.
$TLT ~ Lower lows as expected...We was looking for a 5th wave and it appears we are getting it. Once 61.8 is reached, will need to monitor to see if it holds or we continue pushing lower to the 78.6. Seems there are few safe assets these days as liquidity is drying up.
TLT dangerously close to 2008 supportNASDAQ:TLT not looking to HOT here. The federal reserve has the following 3 options:
1) Stick to 0.50 basis points and continue the slow bleed. ~ This will piss off investors with cash on the sidelines and will most like hit the market harder.
2) Get aggressive and raise 0.75-1 basis point ~ Market may react positively. This would show the federal reserve is "serious" on fighting inflation.
3) Take the foot off the accelerator and step back into the market. Using macro environment as an excuse, for example Russia invasion of Ukraine and China lockdowns.
I think it is noteworthy to mention that China has lowered their interest rates and are outperforming US equities. It honestly looks way more attractive and this is something the fed will have to ponder. This is a lose/lose battle because the federal reserve cannot magically print supply.
pop, pop, fizz, fizz-- no more yield curve inversioni think this is headed for a terminal thrust or wave 5, and abc will correct on some support in the given lower ranges TLT. after seein all time highs, i believe the 10 year will fade if it enters weekly consolidation, and fails some break out level forming a false breakout of upper 90% range. TLT is on watch for bullish divergence macd, stoch, rsi monthly
Long TLT at 116.03www.tradingview.com
At a strong support level, buying TLT with a larger position of 5% here for all of the reasons circled in my chart, as well as the fundamentals that made the technicals possible.
Seeing what happened following the great financial crisis, 2016 and during covid in 2020, we can see a major run up in the TLT. Expecting the same over the medium term.
Also, RSI and MACD levels show support for buying.
Will Superman (Powell) Return" No maybe in 2023Well well well here we are again now that your fake heroes have finally given up on calling inflation transitory which even a a circus monkey to tell you that wasn't going to happen we Can begin with the bloodbath. Well not here necessarily that will begin with the S&P 500 it will make sense soon enough. I will start with my condolences for those retirees with their 60/30 getting hammered both ways for those doing good keep it going baby. The boys at FED just started removing money from the markets this the beginning of more quantitative tightening measures to come. Anyone believing that this can hold if it goes to 130 it's just pure fractional wrongness while we are oversold The FED is no longer buying therefore no reason for this to make a turnaround we have been on a downturn since March 9th 2020 and people would rather risk money on the market than to buy these bonds even if the S&P were to capitulate to 3500 YES I know 600 points that's what happens when markets are flooded with cheap money. My best case scenario is bonds go 5-8% up I have a range of put options with expiration's in August September and some in January 2023. But I'm a cheapskate so I'm waiting for those puts to get a little cheap its in my best interest to do so.
(Remember money is made when people refuse to think that bad things can happen and they WILL This is just the beginning BABY)
$TLT ~ Expecting one more leg down then ready to run...Expecting bonds to push one more time lower as shown to complete its wave 5. Once complete may be a very interesting opportunity.
TLT Plot.Made a short idea recently with the expectation the bounce was going to be a bit higher (and that's still possible) but it's looking more like this bounce may of topped and we're going head down from here.
Traditional portfolio strategy for retirement... not so hot now!The candles below represent a 60/40 mix of TLT and SPY, bonds and stocks. SPY (orange) and TLT (blue) by comparison show than neither asset class is helping to overcome the bad performance of the other. By comparison, moving money to cash (UUP) looks like it would have been a great short-term move against inflation.
Bear Flag in Bond ETF?Bonds have been in a steady downtrend all year. And now, after a period of consolidation, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF may be set to continue lower.
This main pattern on this chart is the modest rebound over the last three weeks. Given the preceding four months of downside, it could be a classic bearish flag. The current drop also represents a potential break of the flag, which could bring sellers from the sidelines.
Second, notice how the stochastic oscillator recently jumped to its most overbought reading of the year.
Third is the low price of $111.90 from late 2018. Will traders look for that level as support?
Finally, macro conditions may favor downside in TLT. Yesterday brought strong U.S. consumer confidence and higher European inflation. Today featured robust manufacturing data. Non-farm payrolls are due Friday, followed by CPI on June 10 and the Federal Reserve meeting on June 15.
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watching for break of resistance 👀if we can break above 120 local resistance we could see a potential rally to 121.64-125.46-129.28
Bearish looking rising wedge on TLTThe 'breakout' of the recent down trend on TLT is looking muted and there has been a bearish rising wedge pattern forming. No breakdown as yet.
$TLT weekly on watch$TLT has seen multiple touches of the 114.30 level that have resulted in a reversal. Would keep your eyes on $TLT heading into the weekend. This Bond ETF Offers Bears An Alternative due to its inverse correlation to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY). The fund tracks a market-weighted index of debt issued by the U.S. Treasury with maturities of 20 years or more.
Rates Back Down with Growth SlowingTPs of 125 and 130 seem reasonable with massive growth deceleration coming. Maybe even ~140
TLT may return to 132-135 neutral zone as a flight to safety.TNX 10-yr yield may have peaked out as investors rotate to the safety of bonds in the 120-114
accumulation zone. TLT has completed a big M-pattern stopping at almost perfect FIBO levels. This ABC wave has already made a 300% retracement from the ATH of 173.89 made last 9Mar2020 before pandemic striked.
The 132-135 zone will be some sort of neutral area for determining inflation or deflation. It is also the neck zone of the M-pattern. As it fell quickly from this zone, the rebound will also be very fast looking at the volume profile that has a large space in between.
5 impulse waves & 3 ABC corrective waves have end this EW cycle & a new cycle shall begin as TLT returns to the baseline of my slanted FIBO CHANNEL where wave 3 had started at Feb2011.
Not trading advice
