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Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

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TLT trade ideas

TLT | Watch this one RIP Higher | LONGiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (the "underlying index"). The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index, and it will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that the advisor believes will help the fund track the underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by DivergenceSeeker
TLT: Double Bottom, Buy LEAPS! Following our successful S&P 500 Index trade from last February, it is time to consider the next major trade of opportunity: TLT. This trade consists of buying January 2025 TLT LEAPS (long-term call options) currently trading for $8.50. That means TLT has to hit $108.50 before January 2025 for you to break even. The Fed forecasts that the Fed Funds rate will be nearly 1% lower by the end of 2024. Some forecasters, however, predicts even lower rates. www.morningstar.com Politics: With Biden running for reelection (likely vs Trump), political pressures may mount to prop up the economy, although that is beyond the scope of this analysis. Nearing End of Hiking Cycle : In any case, we can confirm based on the Fed's own statements that its hiking cycle is nearly up. In the past two hiking cycles, TLT has surged significantly following the end of the Fed's hiking cycles, within 18 months of the end of each cycle. If the past two hiking cycles, are any guide TLT could reach levels of 140 or higher. Notably, the end of the 2018 hiking cycle led to a surge in TLT without a recession. Venus Retrograde: for whatever reason, Venus Retrogrades every 18 months have recently corresponded with major changes in direction for TLT. The current massive selloff began in early 2022, and as of July 25, Venus is again in Retrograde until the first week of September. Thus, TLT is likely to once again reverse. Technical Analysis : At 97, the risk/reward ratio of January 2025 LEAP Calls at 100 are a strong trade. TLT has made an apparent double bottom in an upward sloping linear regression channel going back to last October. I'm going to buy some January 2025 TLT calls at a 100 strike and hopefully watch them rip by up to 10x over the next 18 months. Crypto doesn't give us 10x runs anymore, so we have to get creative.
NASDAQ:TLT
by David_Warren_Ellison
3
TLT ratio compared to Tech (QQQ)Lots of news this week, wow. Besides fundamentals and what everyone thinks, we might have a trade setting up that is very... unusual? The narrative has switched very quickly from bull market to fear. Interest rates are surprising everyone (not me, I've been long rates and short indexes this week) ; although, ratios are lining up for a favorable r/r in TLT. TLT has long been a safe haven trade, if we get a safe haven type event here soon, owning spreads on these with 2-3% upside in the coming weeks is paying off multiple 100s of %. Taking a stab here, have spreads exp next week friday. I've closed some of my short spreads on QQQ's and DOW, this is a small insurance play to protect the other half of the trades and to give myself exposure to potential upside. Ratio to tech and indexes right now show bullish signs, but no confirmation yet. You've all seen the chart overlay of stocks compared to bonds, this could be an event that triggers a short term price reversal, even though the news may not present itself as an event for bonds.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BrokeCollegeStudent
TLT Short term Treasuries Bullish LONGTLT as shown on a 30 minute chart shows TLT in a narrow range last week and then a pivot down to begin this week followed by a downtrend and a small correction until then the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud bond auction with little transactions occurring confounded by Bank of Japan actions inconsistent with the path of the US Fed. The mass index indicator has signaled a reversal as the signal rose above the reversal zone and then dropped below the zone thus triggering. The Relative Trend Index documents the end of the red downtrend with the signal line nearly returning above zero. Overall, I think TLT traders overreacted to the federal news and the catalyst from Japan. I believe this to be a good point to enter long using the pivot low as the stop loss. Targets are 100.5 just below the mean anchored VWAP and 101.5 just below POCl line volume area of the intermediate term volume profile. This offers modest potential profile for a relatively low risk. However, I intend to trade this intraday as a same day expiration (0DTE) option striking 101. I will set a set a stop-loss on the option of 15% while expecting potentially 50-200% ROI making for an acceptable ratio.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TLT - is now the time to start accumulating?Long duration treasury ETF's have long been touted as hedges against risk and inflation. However, treasury prices and rates have an inverse relationship. When the US Treasury issues new bonds during a rate hiking cycle, it depresses the prices of the long duration treasuries within these ETFs. Conversely, when rates reach their peak and subsequently start to decline, these ETFs will hold treasuries with higher rates than the newly issued ones. This explains why we see TLT price increasing in a low rate environment and decreasing in a rising rate environment. If we are near the conclusion of this rate hiking cycle we should see a little more consolidation in TLT, followed by price increase. I have been and will continue to add to my position anytime we are close to $100 during this consolidation. I'll begin to take profit $112-114 and then re-evaluation market conditions.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Ben_1148x2
3
If we take the 200 we're goodIf we overtake the 200 day moving average and that $103 level we could push to the $109's. I'm really not worried about hikes as we priced in another one and no more are expected by the mass amounts of economists inflation is at 3%, let's see if it stays there bc of base affects. Looking for the upside move, the Yuan and Yen are also point of this trade that support it's upside. Also the UK Gilt market. I'm confident in this, we also just got a week jobs report maybe that continues. Target for me is $115 - $120
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by nah0
2
Bonds Bull Flag?You can ignore my arrow prediction but just for fun let's see how correlated it is. But what we see here is that the NASDAQ:TLT broke below its triangle and now seems to be reversing after a cool CPI print. It seems to have make a bull flag and big consolidation range that I drew out in those purple lines. Let's see if the bond market can continue with the bullish moves as it does make sense due to the way that the rate decisions have been priced in. IMO one more hike then cuts next year and 2019 level rates by end of 2025. NASDAQ:TLT can get to $115-$120 by May-July 2024 Exciting stuff let's see.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by nah0
One of the most beautiful charts $TLT Wow what a beautiful chart. Almost done with a full market cycle. You may know this as a "dead cat bounce" or the "ANGER" part of the cycle... lol.... but we haven't even hit depression!? woooooo lol. What this indicates is that ole Jerome Powell boy isnt done raising rates..... and he is for sure going to keep them higher for longer... the next couple of years according to timing on this chart. "higher for longer" Self explanatory chart.... just a thing of beauty
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by GoldenCrowley
Opening (IRA): TLT November 17th 94 Short Put... for a .75 credit. Comments: Continuing to build out rungs in 20-year plus maturity paper, targeting the 16 delta strike to emulate an equities/bond mix in my portfolio using short puts, particularly since TLT 30-day is actually greater than that in SPY (15.1% for the former; 13.0% for the latter). As usual, I'm fine with taking assignment of shares at this level and then proceeding to "cover" (i.e., sell call against) if that happens.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Treasuries on track for a crash in H2'23. 10Y above 10%.The triangle within wave 4 has ended. Either today, or on May 3rd. What will happen next has never happened before. The crash in Treasuries in extended wave 5 is scheduled for H2 - the time when 10Y will definitely hit above 10%, dragging the entire market as low as SPX 1000...1500. The closest analogy to the coming crash is 1929. But remember - the crash of 1929 was just a correction within a 100-year long trend, which finally ended on Jan 4th this year. The coming crash will be one fractal level higher: it will be part of the correction to the entire 100-year long bull market in the US.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by AndyM
6