$SMHSMH full week of tight consolidation right here. over 253.36 see if we can get some upward momentum and new all time highs.
SMH trade ideas
SMH about to breakoutSMH (the Geek) was resting in the small 4 day week moving laterally but was ready to breakdown on Thursday. But the jobs numbers on Friday being moderately light vs expectations made one more month of positive news for the market signaling "transitory" inflation. That was the turning point as mentioned in my last weeks report. An engulfing candle on Friday and an uptrend MACD makes this extremely bullish. After Fridays action, I see Geek moving higher as 3/4 of the stocks in the group got pummeled way under 21 day ema. This put those stocks this coming week trading above 8 day ema at least. Its possible that it can rest here for a couple of days as well.
Semiconductors in danger UPTREND BROKEN
$SMH
Semiconductor Chip shortage news made this sector hot and pulled forward lot of earnings. Now running out of reasons and it is a matter of time for a pullback to $200-210 area. Uptrend clearly is broken $240-245 is 🗝 to 👀
$NVDA
$QCOM
$LRCX
$INTC
SOX, SMH needs to hold hereTheres a saying that SEMIs lead the market. $SMH finally broke an upper band trendline that took alot of work to do because of very little volume. Its tired and wants to rest. This is an important test but bids need to come back. Will June be the month when buyers pile back in? My gut tells me we hit 252 this week then break down again or at least stay above the band. Stocks that had great earnings but got slaughtered will do well. $SMH will be range bound till July earnings.
SMH staying short UpdateSMH daily wants to head up I was short 244
took some off at 227, 3/4 off own 1/4
added a little today so my entry know is 245 just few shares
Weekly says stay short.
Just because I am long term does not mean u dont take some off.
I re add back in later called managing my money
not the stock, same goes for longs
SMH is getting ready for a rallyFor me both tech QQQ and Semiconductors SMH are forming bottom. Any dip would be a good buying opportunity in my opinion.
SMH staying short 244 UpdateDaily say it can rally some on the stoch
Weekly stoch heading to china long term short
and should go lower, Look vol selling to buying
Global Chip Shortage - Massively Overbought - Sell Sell Sell #cashexit the #fomo #stonks. Watch for all the incoming dead cat bounces. Stay away from them too.
$SMH Relief bounce Bat Pattern Let's see guys detailed Bat pattern set up with trigger level stop and take profit 1 and 2 level, watch indices on all plays, if they are tanking please wait,
SMH staying shrt 244daily wants snap back
weekly says we go lower in time
look selling to the buying
Staying short SMH 243.98 up 7%Daily stoch on bottom we can get a rally
back to 240 the 50 day ma. took 3/4 off still have some left on
weekly says stay short just a snap back into a down trend
see lower highs look selling vol
SMH 75% PoP & 18% profit in 2 weeks with monthly verticalQuick 2 week vertical play:
* Bullish triangle
* Buy volume
* 14 month bullish trend
Max profit: $156
Probability of Profit: 75%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 18%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$250
Req. Buy Power: $844 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 5.4
Expiry: 15 days
Buy 2 SMH May21' 230 Put
Sell 2 SMH May21' 235 Put
Credit PUT spread for 0.78cr each.
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 250$. Probability of loss in this way: ~12% .
Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.27db. Probability of profit this way: ~88%.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
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Staying short SMHDaily stoch heading south
Beautiful engulfing candle
vol great
It broke 50 and 100 ma also
and closed on its low
Weekly stoch looks fantastic engulfing
Short at 244
support 224.41 breaks here
resistance is 239.71
$SMH Tests Trendline Support as Chip Demand BoomsSMH is at an interesting juncture. The world will be defined by chips. Demand is soaring. Supply will eventually catch up. This pattern is typically part of a continuation in a trend. But it needs to continue to hold the trend to capitalize on the A-T breakout to come.
SMH Bull put spread - closed out as day trade for small profitSMH Bull put spread
Sold the 230-227.5 bull put spread for .42 which was 20% ROI and 3 DTE, and then the market quickly traded to .56 and .62 as the 236 zone dind't have any buyers.
So the lack of any buying activity made me lose confidence in the trade.
I bought the spread back for 0.38 for a 0.04 profit about 5 hours later and took it as a day trade.
I'll look to sell lower at the 220 strike if it tests down to 230 which I think is likely
3x ETF SOXL vs other 1x semi ETFs over various time horizonsI compare SOXL returns with SOXX, SMH, and PSI, all ETFs in the semiconductor space.
CONCLUSIONS AND FINDINGS:
YTD 2021 SOXL has not provided any net benefit over it's peers. And if you use stop loss orders you've probably lost money on it due to its extreme volatility. Smaller quant ETF fund PSI is the better performer on most/all time horizons YTD or more recent, especially from a risk/reward perspective. Only when comparing SOXL against the others on a time horizon of 1 yr or longer does SOXL outperform it's peers.
Importantly however, charts mimic real life only to the extent we make the purchase the entire position at once and don't touch it over the entire time frame. But this is not what most traders do. Thus, I recommend holding SOXL only if you're going to buy it and not set any stop loss orders, touch it, trade it, or even look at it for a year or more. But you probably can't handle that. I can't either. Thus the better, more realistic strategy for most traders is to get PSI or one of the other primary ETFs covering this space.
$SMH Triangle consolidation w pullback trigger $SMH broke out of triangle consolidation w pullback trigger zone
$SMH Cup with HandleSemiconductor stocks as tracked by $SMH ETF seem to have put in the low of their handle in a 2 months cup and handle pattern.
SMH, short term double top?Although nothing really pans out, i suspect a potential double top for Semiconductor ETF.
While lots of GOOD news such as good economic or job data, and shortage of chips should propel SMH even higher but
as contrarian, i would take opposite opinion for next 3 months for a short hiatus for retracement
if the double top plays out
the first down side target base on % projection will be ~216.
and if this neckline breaks down,
next projection target is around 181
as to whether it can go lower to ~152 for major major support, that i am not sure
only time will tell
Please do your own D.D.
Not a suggestion to buy or sell this etf, only for research purpose
SMH Bullish Flag PatternI'm seeing a flagish pattern develop on the hourly time frame, looks like it should resolve today or tomorrow.
NASDAQ:SMH
