RivnNASDAQ:RIVN this for the new year prediction don’t judge but if there is any mistake please feel free to leave a comment it may help me also
RIVN trade ideas
Rivian Update: Did we get a set-up today?Today someone commented on my Tesla post saying I am always calling for the stock to go up/down or down/up. Well yea, that's kind of how markets work. If you don't understand how they move, maybe you should study a little bit before making trades. I also want to reiterate one of the most important trading qualities people can have, patience. It is not necessary to trade every mechanism with-in the markets. Wait until you have a good risk/reward ratio before entering, and even then, you should use stops to protect your assets. It's kind of like gambling. Are you going to bet everything on two pair? If so, let's play some poker, because I'll have patience and wait until I have four-of-a-kind. IDK about y'all, but I'm in this to make money not give it away. Bluffing doesn't work in this business, and you will lose your ass every time. That being said, let's talk action.
Yesterday we got a strong move up to $24.62 and then dropped to $23.14. This could either be a surprise b or the start of a i-ii, 1-2 as I said in an update. MACD is what makes me think we should head higher tomorrow for our wave iii, but until we make a new high in price & MACD, we don't have confirmation. I have said since the beginning of this move up @ $15.12 that it was very possible to extend to the 0.786 fib @ $30.47. Well, we have already extended past normal targets on a micro scale as well as the macro. Price made it past the 0.5 fib and is coming up on the 0.618. Also, we are inside of the target box for our wave 1 ending. Sure, when you boil down to the micros it can become confusing and give false signals but check out the weekly below.
See the strength of the last move up? It isn't even showing a micro-wave 4 yet for wave 1 of (3). This is another clue that is leading me to believe wave 1 isn't done yet. My expectation is for it to hit the 0.618 or slightly past, before carving out the micro-wave 4 and then rising to the 0.786 to finish wave 1. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fortune teller and will never pretend to be. I look at markets and make assumptions based off of the price action I see. When I get a clear picture, I make a move. If the picture is hazy, I stay out and protect my capital. If that means I go 3 weeks without making a single trade so be it. I know that when I do finally make another trade, I will have a high probability of making money, which is why I do this. Enough of my soap box tonight. God bless and good luck everyone. Please use patience and stops. I can't stress them enough.
P.S: If you think this market is hard to trade, just wait until next year when it starts a multi-decade corrective structure to the downside.
Rivian Update: Continued extension or b wave?Earlier this morning I updated y'all to a position I took in the pre-market. I bought 50 shares @ $23.47. This was a calculated move I made due to the upside potential as it was a 1:3 risk reward ratio. Normally I would like better odds than that which is why I took a small position. This minimizes potential losses while still exposing me to the upside. It would have to drop over 10% just for me to lose $150. I'll take those odds.
The primary reason I am thinking we are extending more to the upside is due to MACD on the 3min timeframe. It made a new local high with price making a new high too. This to me says price will at a minimum make a new high with a lower MACD reading before the next main retrace. That will set price up to drop on neg divergence.
On the chart you will see I have another micro-5-wave impulsive move labeled pointing us to the $26 area at a minimum, which is my primary. The ALT count to this would be a larger than normal b wave, with c about to start for a flat ABC and would end around $22-$23. This would either be wave 2 or a micro-wave 4 of some degree. We need some type of conformation though, and we won't get that until we breach some key levels.
To the upside, the first key level is our prior high, taking us preferably into the 1.618 area @ $25.24. We would then retrace for wave iv of v of (v) of 1 before raising to the yellow 0.618-0.786 fibs to finish out the move up. To the downside, the level is $22.61. Below that and a drop lower is confirmed but will also mean the move down is about over due to the flat I mentioned earlier. Hence the calculated move I made this morning. Above $28.50 and I remove the orange ALT.
Below is a 3min chart showing the micros. Check out how high the MACD went on this timeframe. This cannot and should not be ignored. I would be very surprised if a b wave made a reading this high. Not impossible, but highly doubtful. In these precarious times when price has a decision to make, it is imperative to take small positions and set stops to protect your assets. I for one, have no intentions of giving up my hard-earned capital. If we do breach our upside levels, I will most likely buy more shares and some calls during our micro-wave iv retrace. I haven't went shopping yet but would most likely be looking for a feb exp date with a strike around $26-$30. For now, I wait more clues.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVN: growth prospects The analysis of the RIVN stock suggests that starting from April of this year, the electric vehicle company initiated a bullish cycle, highlighted by the first 5-wave movement concluding in July, followed by the second wave reaching completion in November. Currently, there is a high probability that we are within the third wave, with various sub-cycles in progress, indicating a potential for further price increases in the coming months.
Rivian Update: Tomorrow "should" be RedAs the title suggests, I fully expect tomorrow to be a red day for at minimum, the beginning of the (c) wave of 2, or c of (a) of 2. We can't know which part of wave 2 this is until we get the C wave at least started. I still have that smaller box in the chart, but make no mistake, that would be considered a shallow retrace. Hence the debate on what part of 2 this is making up. Due to the fact that we raised so high though for what I am calling wave 1, it is causing me to think that this count will follow a "normal" extended type of rise.
You will hear me say "normal" a lot because that is all I have to go on until price action gives us more details/data to refine my decisions. There are a few things that will help me distinguish which part of the retrace this is. As usual, MACD will help guide me, along with what type of structure is carved out after the this downward move is finished. Say we hit the small target box and then start to raise impulsively, then we know that was all of wave 2. If the move up is weak, and is choppy, you know that this was just c of (a) of 2 and we will head back down towards the yellow 0.236 fib.
The reason I zoomed out on the hourly, is so y'all can get a view of where we started. On the left hand side you see the (C) wave towards the bottom? That is where all of this started...and I called it. We then proceeded to move higher in a 5-wave impulsive fashion from $11.68 to $28.48. We then retraced in a 3-wave corrective move down to $15.12, which I also forecasted using only EWT.
Since November 10th we have moved up in a micro-5-wave impulsive fashion from the $15.12 bottom to $24.57 to complete what I am calling wave 1. Now remember, nothing has been "confirmed" as of yet since we haven't breached the prior wave 4. Given MACD and other clues, I am calling this complete at this time though. If wave 1 is in fact done, then we should retrace in a corrective 3-wave fashion marked with overlap. So far, I have 2 waves complete, with the clues pointing to a move down tomorrow creating the third wave. Is that all or just (a), idk but we should find out tomorrow or at least receive some clues at the minimum.
Let me really give y'all something to argue with me about lol. I predict that by the time this intermediate 5-wave move is done, Rivian will be trading around $75 at a minimum with a possible high of $150 with extensions. As y'all know I don't predict time as EWT has no mechanism to do so, but I feel we should be hitting those end targets around the 4th quarter of 2024. Keep in mind, I leave my emotions at the door and ONLY use facts/data the charts provide. I am not attached to ANY count as I care more about making money than being right. That is why you all see me trading conservatively the vast majority of the time. With this strategy, I have grown my ENTIRE portfolio by about 41% YTD and 74% since I took my account over 1.5-2years ago. This isn't to brag; it is to show you all, with strict rules and EWT you can make some serious cash. Not to mention the effects of compound interest. Because of these rules/form of analysis, I will be starting the new year with considerably more cash than this year. So, 41% profit in 2024 will create much much higher profits/returns. Fast forward 10 years, and think of where you could be with these kinds of results? Again, not bragging, just trying to stress how life changing this can be. Should you all decided to take the next step with me early next year, you too could achieve these results. Just ask some of my longer-term followers on here how they have fared this year.
Long-term Followers: Don't provide in depth details, but if you wouldn't mind sharing what kind of percentages you made this year, that would be amazing. This will hopefully help others to realize the potential here and possibly even change their lives, as mine has been changed. Just think about the freedom this could provide you and your family. I moved to part time Dec. 10th and am already preparing to quit altogether and work full time trading, making substantially more money. This will create complete freedom and complete independence from EVERYONE...FOREVER!!! As you vets know, I did this in LESS THAN 2 years time.....
I want to wish everyone good luck regardless of whatever you decide to do, and may God bless you and your entire family.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Rivian Update NASDAQ:RIVN I could be wrong too
Ones the market opens up hopefully goes according to this
Rivian Hello this is will be my first post
I think that we should head down around 11 to 2 clock in the afternoon on Tuesdays
And then we should shot back up but also time can tell let’s see
Good luck everyone
RIVN - Real action hasn't begun yetDespite good price action, movement has been slow due to the supply at these levels. It might test 22/23 next week, how it reacts at that level will decide its fate.
I am long via commons from 16.80
Rivian Update: Primary is wave 2 startedToday we got the OMH I said was possible and then proceeded to tank from there. We literally dropped almost $2 in 2 hours. I had also mentioned that when an ending diagonal finishes, the initial part of the retrace is swift and strong due to traders finally giving up on the upside. It appears that was the case today. I say appears because we still don't have confirmation, but the signs are there. I've said it before and I'll say it again, EWT is only as good as the analyst. I am not perfect as I am human and therefore fathomable. By the grace of God and Jesus, I have been able to interpret these charts with relative accuracy and I pray that continues.
The unfortunate part about updating throughout the day is I run out of things to post on here lol. Tomorrow, I expect this retrace to continue to the downside and potentially even finish. It is a corrective part of the count though, so we can chop around for a long time. Given the fact we are in wave (3) I don't anticipate a long wave 2 though as I have previously stated. For this to be standard we will drop to around the 0.382 @ $21.25 but would not be too far out of the ordinary to end at the 0.236 @ $18.66.
My plan as of now, is to start layering in shares around $21.50. I may even buy a couple calls in that area depending on what MACD is telling us. Right now, on the hourly chart the MACD has started to curl up. This could be due this being a wave 4, but I think MACD dropped a little too far for that. With the depth it has dropped, it gives me confidence we're in a wave 2. The micros show some positive divergence, but that could just be due to a b wave about to form. In short, as said prior, I expect us to continue down tomorrow but you should be ready for the possibly we move higher given nothing is confirmed. Dropping below the prior wave 4 is a big indicator the upward structure is starting to crack. The prior wave 4 in this case is @ $21.65. If we raise impulsively, that is your clue we're most likely headed for the 0.786 @ $30.47. I will update tomorrow as needed.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Validating $RIVN Ichimoku and Fibonacci - Trend AffirmedI want to validate RIVN on Ichimoku and Fibonacci.
The trend seems to be intact and not broken as it h as a big support at 20 as shown below. If it breaches the 26.8 resistance which is the Fib Resistance, it has to just fly from there.
Will watch closely and please provide the feedback
RIVN: Week of December 18RIVN levels in the chart.
Personally bullish following the breakout but a re-test is possible:
About 35% of accumulation rests just over 2 SDs (24.17) since the start of the pennant formation:
And the volume accumulation also rests to the upside:
Bullish overall, watch the conditions though as always.
Expect a bit of resistance at 24.17.
Rivian Update: is 1 finally done?That is the question I have been asking for the last couple days lol. When I say wave 3's are the strongest I wasn't kidding. They are also usually the longest wave too, and this is just the beginning. As of now I have a complete count, we're on negative divergence, and we are in the area of a normal ending area for this extension. I have said multiple times that the 2.618 is a common spot for us to end. Well, as soon as we crossed that fib, we started to chop and came just $0.02 cents aways from the 2.786 fib. I believe this formed an ending diagonal to finish out our wave 1. Rather it needs OMH or not I am unsure as of now. These are all just signs though, and nothing has been confirmed. We could still easily move up towards the 0.786 fib @ $30.47.
If this is an ending diagonal, then the start of the retrace should be swift. This is a function of traders finally realizing they need to sell and giving up on the upside. Thus, the swift move is created. Because we are in wave (3) our retraces will most likely be small and quick in nature, not a rule just an observation I have made in other situations. Hopefully tomorrow we can start this retrace and have it only last a short time. Time will tell, good luck!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
RIVN Rivian on the verge of breakoutRIVN - Rivian Automotive is on the verge of major breakout.
It is closer to the multi-month down trend line at 24.78.
Once it closes above 25 the next upside targets are 28.28, 35.78 and 40.70
Support at 20.19, 15 and 13.07
RIVIAN Channel Up targeting $35.50Rivian (RIVN) gave us a great break-out buy entry on our previous November 29 analysis (see chart below) as it broke above the Inner Lower Highs and hit our $21.00 target:
The pattern that is now dominating the 1D log chart is a Channel Up. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is about to negate the recently made Death Cross and cross back again above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to form a Golden Cross. This will be a strong bullish continuation signal for the current bullish leg of the Channel Up. We are bullish again on this stock, targeting $35.50, which is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, the Feb level where the previous Higher High was made.
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Rivian Weekend UpdateI'm not going to spend much time on this as I have been very clear/thorough with my expectations on what I think will happen next. It looks like we have carved out an a-b wave with a c wave to follow. The c wave should ideally complete Monday. The primary question I will have at that time is, will it be an abc to complete our A of 2 or will it be the whole ABC of 2? The answer should hopefully reveal itself early next week.
When we enter into the smaller box with a thicker border, I will start to re-accumulate at a slow pace depending on the structure. I still have 200 shares at this time and would like to pick up another 300 or so along with a big ole handful of calls. I work Monday but will try to update y'all as able/needed. Good Luck and as always, I will try to post any trades I make on here.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
