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RIVN trade ideas

Rivian Update: So Far So GoodWe came down and hit $0.05 cents away from the 0.786 fib line of our wave (1), and then started to rise in what appears to be an impulsive fashion. I have drawn a box for our wave (v) of ((i)) of (3). The MACD seems to support the count as well. This being a wave 3, it should raise higher then any other wave during this 5-wave pattern. I would also like to point out on 15 May, we got OML on positive divergence. This gives support to the bottom being in for our wave (2). If my count is correct, and you bought with me, then congratulations is in order! I predict this stock to be almost double what it is at this time by the end of this move up. Also, I don't think we will see these prices again unless something really bad happens to Rivian, or they split their stocks in the future. I will leave the yellow box on the chart until we bounce up from wave ((ii)) and confirm our botom is in. Nothing to do now but await confirmation from price movements. For accountability purposes I currently hold 1000 shares of Rivian @ an avg price of $12.86. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
15
Rivian Update: Starting Wave 3I posted in an update earlier that i bought 300 shares of Rivian. I think I forgot to post that I made another purchase for 150 shares @ $12.90. If we make another low, I plan on buying another 150 shares. According to the MACD though we are about to embark higher. This will be our wave i of (3) so expect a good liftoff followed by a decent retrace, and then liftoff. I expect by the time we are finished with Wave (3) we should easily be in the low $20's. Wave (5) should end around the $23-$25 range WITHOUT extensions. If you haven't entered. maybe consider your risk tolerance. There is still a chance we break down and fall into the yellow box I have marked with turquoise labels. Thats HIGHLY HIGHLY unlikely though...but not impossible. Bonam fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
12
Rivian Update: Is that it for B?The only thing I changed about this graph, is I removed the dotted lines showing my prediction for prices path and moved my A & B labels to reflect new price action. The B wave may not have even started yet though to be honest. I would not be surprised one bit if this has all been part of our A wave down. However, we did poke higher to just under the 0.236 fib line and this cannot go ignored. Therefore, I have our B wave labeled on that high until price tells us different. If that was all of A & B, then we can expect Rivian to open down and drop pretty hard over the next few days. If B wave hasn't started or finished, then tomorrow may be a green day for Rivian but it will be short lived. I am still expecting us to drop to the target box of $13.09-$12.45. I have also left the yellow box at the bottom. This is for the VERY unlikely event we haven't in fact bottomed yet. With all the bullish price action and the fact we are coming off of a 5-wave impulsive move, I feel we have already bottomed and will never see price go below $11.68 again! If you haven't already, check out my Tesla posts!! They are on point!! LOL Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by TSuth
2
Rivian Finished Wave (1)Today Rivian hit the OMH I said it would. It extended out almost to the 2.236 fib line, which was unexpected, but nonetheless...it was OMH just as I called for. From there we dropped down almost to the 0.382 which is a normal retrace spot for A wave retraces. We may have already bottomed in this A wave retrace though as the count looks complete. MACD also looks as if it could afford OML and then move higher for wave B. As I said though, OML is NOT required. We could begin moving up for B wave at any time. That should end around the 0.236 fib line @ $14.67 and then head back down to the 0.618-0.786 area of $13.09-$12.45 for wave C of (2). That is where i plan to load back on up Rivian. I will most likely try to build into a position of around 500 shares for the wave 3 ride up. Let's not get to ahead of ourselves though. Price must yet still prove itself. All this is assuming we have a "normal" retrace. Remember though, we are in a wave 2 so these patterns should be corrective. If at anytime we break out and move impulsively past $15.74 that means we have already bottomed and have begun moving upwards. Once we get a wave (2) end point i can dial in more accurate targets for wave 3 but at this point I am expecting somewhere around $20-$25 dollars. Thats a 40-50% profit!!. Again though, be patient and wait for price to prove its intentions first. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by TSuth
Rivian Update: OMH Still PossibleIt never gets old making these graphs and watching price move right into my target zones/fib lines. When you learn how to accurately identify your waves, know what "normally" happens next, then your profits begin to soar. One thing my mentor has CONSTANTLY reminded me of, "structure is the most important thing". Once you have this drilled into your head, remember to check your MACD constantly, and always have an exit strategy in place you're bound for success. All that being said, I made a pretty bold statement that Rivian was headed to $14.50-$15 at a time when it was down 5.4% from the day prior. Don't just take my word for it, look at my post! It was made @ 08:42a.m. and is tagged at the bottom Then it jumped 13.26%!!!!! and it went right into my target box and came .01 cents from my 1.786 fib line. Now, I still expect OMH on negative divergence from Rivian before we move lower for wave (2). I believe the CPI report, and people wanting to collect profits, will be our catalysts for the move lower. Ideally, we should move in a 3-wave pattern down to the 0.382 then up to the 0.236, then down to the 0.618-0.786fib lines of this wave (1) move up. If we have enough price action tomorrow, I will update throughout the day. At our next high i plan on selling some of my Rivian shares. If/when i do this I will post a Trade alert! Please message me or post with any questions you have. I will reply with-in 24hrs. Look at my past posts and allow them to speak for me!! Once you do hit that follow button cause you're going to like what you see! Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVN
by TSuth
5
$14.5-$15 Target ZONE!!!If you follow along with me then you know I bought some more Rivian when it was about $12.6. I didn't buy as much as I would have liked because this high wasn't expected. However, given the price movements I took another look at Rivian, and it appears I was one degree off. This means we are almost done with this wave iv and are about to embark higher in our wave v. Marked on the graph is a box for the target of our next wave. After this wave (1) is done we should still head lower to the $12.25ish area for our retrace. As I have said before, the higher this price moves the higher the retracement will be. Be patient if you haven't bought in as another good entry will present itself. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
4
Rivian Automotive - PUT/SHORT OpportunityLove the design aesthetic of these vehicles, but sales have been slow and the loss per vehicle is staggering. There only hope is being bought out by another company? In order to get to that point, the price needs to drop much lower sub $5.00 for someone to even consider buying them out for their design. Earnings coming up here shortly on Tuesday for this company. Tesla took a huge market share this last quarter, and I don't see how Rivian can even compete at this point. Bullish for Tesla, Bear for Rivian.
NASDAQ:RIVN
by GoldenCrowley
Did Rivian Finally Bottom???I had a follower ask me about Rivian as it has been a while since I have updated you all on its price action. On 26 April, we hit a low of $11.68 and have thus far retraced impulsively with only OMH needed to complete this wave (1). After this wave (1) completes, we should head down for wave (2), which ideally should be a 3-wave pattern into the HKEX:12 - $12.25 area. My ALT count suggests we haven't bottomed yet and this is still wave IV with OML to follow. The ALT endpoint is labeled by a yellow box with the count in turquoise. I went ahead and bought 100 shares today @ market price to start because $0.4 is nothing if my count is right. Once my count gets validated, I will increase my holdings on the wave (2) retrace. If it is wrong, and we take off like a rocket (still right thesis), I would have at least obtained a small position at these prices. If Rivian still hasn't bottomed (ALT count) and we drop for another low... well that's what we use stops for . In which case, I would just buy again at my ALT bottom. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TSuth
2
$RIVN EV Stocks Winners & LosersTrying to grab a piece of the EV stocks market cake, Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is an EV manufacturer that went public back in 2021. However, RIVN stock has dropped 93% from its IPO until now. Ever-growing losses have led analysts to cut their RIVN price targets – adding to the bearish market sentiment. After TSLA’s poor Q1 guidance, EV stocks have been particularly hit and RIVN is no exception. But has all the risks/downside been priced into RIVN stock which now trades at HKEX:12 ? With no major upcoming catalysts to save it, RIVN stock price is likely still overpriced compared to other EV stocks considering that its EV competitors are valued at a discount compared to RIVN. RIVN Fundamentals In its Q4 earnings call, RIVN stated that it aims to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2022, but the company is still suffering from supply chain and capital issues which might be the reason for the company’s underwhelming production numbers in Q1 2023. However, the company is trying to raise its cash intake by revisiting the terms of its EV trucks exclusivity agreement with Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) to bring in more customers. EV Stocks Survivor As of now, the EV stocks market overall is looking bearish, thanks to the biggest name in the industry Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock price dropping following its Q1 earnings results. TSLA barely met analysts’ expectations due to raw material, commodity, logistics, warranty costs, and lowered revenues according to the company. But the nail in the coffin was Elon Musk’s statement regarding the EV market’s uncertainty due to the current economic environment. Inflation and the likelihood of a recession are affecting consumers’ discretionary spending – something that impacts all EV companies, not just TSLA. While Tesla is attempting to weather the storm by cutting its vehicle prices at the start of the year in an attempt to attract more customers, this environment will put pressure on EV startups like RIVN. Unlike Tesla, RIVN increased its vehicle prices during 2022 and faces competition from the likes of Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (NASDAQ: PSNY), NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO), Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and Mullen Automotive, Inc.(NASDAQ: MULN). The question on some investors’ minds right now is which of the EV stocks could survive. Compared to PSNY, the company has been narrowing its losses after reporting a decrease in its net loss YoY from HKEX:1 billion to $465.8 million while RIVN’s losses widened from $4.6 billion to $6.7 billion. Additionally, RIVN is lagging in delivery numbers. RIVN delivered 20,332 vehicles to customers while Polestar delivered around 51,500 in 2022. Despite these figures, RIVN stock is trading at nearly three times the price of PSNY indicating that RIVN could still be overvalued. Compared with another competitor RIVN’s delivery numbers are also falling behind that of NIO with the NIO delivering 122,486 vehicles in 2022 – more than 5 times those delivered by RIVN – yet NIO’s stock is trading at nearly two-thirds the price of RIVN. This further indicates the possibility of RIVN being overvalued in contrast to other EV stocks. Production and Capital Issues Aiming to increase its production numbers by 105%, RIVN is expecting to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023 and build a second plant to start producing a new series of vehicles for release in 2026. However, as a result of supply chain disruptions, RIVN still faces a great deal of production issues, especially due to the everlasting semiconductor shortage. Digging into RIVN’s Q1 2023 vehicle production and delivery numbers, the company’s production has declined in contrast to Q4 2022. RIVN produced 10,020 vehicles and delivered 8,054 vehicles in Q4 2022 while producing 9,395 vehicles and delivering 7,946 vehicles in Q1 2023. This QoQ decrease indicates that these supply chain issues could continue to impact production – ultimately affecting its sales and raising concerns about the company’s capital. This is not a good sign for a company burning through cash. In 2022 alone, RIVN spent $6.6 billion and after reporting a decrease in its cash position from $13.2 billion in Q3 2022 to $11.5 billion in Q4 2022, at this rate, it will have to raise capital in the future. Raising capital could dilute current shareholders, but with a cash runway of roughly 2.5 years based on its current expenditures dilution could still be a ways off. Additionally, its need to raise capital could be offset by revenue if it is able to pick up production during this time. Amazon Exclusivity Deal On this note, RIVN is attempting to raise its cash intake by seeking to adjust its exclusivity agreement with Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN). In 2019 RIVN made a deal with AMZN to exclusively deliver up to 100,000 EV delivery trucks over the next 4 years, obligating AMZN to purchase at least 10,000 trucks per year. Meaning RIVN cannot sell its trucks to any other company even though AMZN has barely ordered over 10,000 vehicles. While Amazon’s lack of enthusiasm for RIVN’s product is a bearish sign, loosening its deal with AMZN could help RIVN attract more customers and potentially secure more orders. RIVN Stock Price Targets Considering the bearish outlook, it is not surprising that analysts at The Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets halved their price target for RIVN – cutting it to HKEX:14 and dropping its rating from outperform to sector perform. Moreover, Alexander Potter from Piper Sandler reduced his price target by 76% from HKEX:63 to $15. With RIVN’s net loss increasing YoY from $4.6 billion to $6.7 billion, these price cuts are hardly an overreaction, but investors may be wondering if there is more downside for the stock price. Losing Eligibility for Tax Credits Some investors got their answer after the Treasury Department released its long-anticipated battery guidance for federal EV tax credits. As a result of rules mandating that a certain amount of battery materials be sourced in the US, RIVN’s vehicles are no longer eligible for HKEX:7 ,500 tax credits. While they still qualify for half this amount, these rulings could affect demand moving forward. RIVN Stock Q1 Earnings RIVN is to report its Q1 earnings on May 9th after hours, where analysts expect the company to report revenue of $656.6 and an EPS of -1.61 RIVN Financials In its 2022 annual report, RIVN reported $17.8 billion in assets, including $11.5 billion in cash. RIVN witnessed a decline in assets from $22.2 billion including $18.1 billion in cash in 2021. RIVN’s liabilities grew YoY from $2.7 billion to HKEX:4 billion as its current liabilities increased from $1.3 billion to $2.4 billion. Additionally, the company’s long-term debt slightly increased YoY from $1.226 billion to $1.231 billion. RIVN revenues grew YoY from HKEX:55 million to $1.6 billion, however, its gross loss widened from HKEX:465 million to $3.1 billion due to an increase in its cost of revenues from HKEX:520 million to $4.7 billion. Finally, the company’s operating losses increased YoY from $4.2 billion to $6.8 billion and its net losses increased from $4.6 billion to $6.7 billion. Technical Analysis RIVN trend is bearish as it is trading in a downward channel. Looking at the indicators, RIVN stock is now trading below the 21 MA, 50 MA, and 200 MA which is a bearish sign. The RSI is approaching oversold at 31 and the MACD is bullish but is approaching a bearish crossover. Fundamentally, RIVN has no major catalysts coming up apart from the upcoming earnings, but with analysts’ expectations being fairly low, RIVN stock price could fall even more following its earnings unless it exceeds these expectations. The RIVN stock price has the potential to further decline as it is trading in a sideways channel below the 21, 50, and 200 MA, in addition to the MACD approaching a bearish crossover. A possible play would be going short with an entry on retests of the 21 MA and taking profits on retests of the lower trend line. RIVN Forecast Following the recent bearish trend in the EV market due to Tesla’s underwhelming Q1 earnings and Elon Musk’s statement regarding the market situation, most EV stocks have been plummeting including RIVN – which has already been dropping since its IPO. RIVN could be overpriced as the company lags behind in cutting losses and production numbers compared to PSNY – which is priced nearly three times lower- and lags behind in production numbers compared to NIO – which is priced at nearly two-thirds of the price of RIVN. RIVN is still facing major production issues as the company’s Q1 2023 production numbers are falling behind in comparison to that of Q4 2022. Furthermore, RIVN’s capital issues aren’t slowing down with the company’s cash on hand continuously decreasing, causing the company to negotiate its exclusivity deal with AMZN to bring in more customers. These factors resulted in many analysts and investors being bearish with most of them cutting their price target for the stock. And with the US treasury department’s new regulations regarding EV tax credits, RIVN could face more downside along with other EV stocks. As it is set to report its Q1 earnings on May 9th, the RIVN stock price might decrease further following the event due to low analysts’ expectations, and with RIVN having no major upcoming catalysts, the RIVN stock forecast could remain bearish moving forwards making it one of the EV stocks to avoid.
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by Penny_Stocks_Today
Rivian in a descending wedge patternRivian hasn't been doing so well. The stock price has suffered from a long and sustained selloff and is well below the book price per share of $14.90. The descending wedge pattern that's emerging may indicate that the company's fortunes are about to change. Maybe the EV market will take off suddenly, maybe Rivian will announce a new model or post a surprise earnings report, or maybe an acquisition is looming. Rivian is ripe for acquisition and I can think of at least two tech companies that would be interested in buying their way into the EV market. Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) has always been rumored to dive into the EV business and has the cash to buy them outright. Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) is Rivian's largest investor and needs them to manufacture their electric delivery vehicle fleet. Either way, the descending wedge (known as a "terminal" in NEOwave circles) if confirmed is likely to result in a full retrace of the wedge in a time span of approximately 3 months.
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by r5sn3kxfh6
RIVN, 10d+/-40.25%falling cycle -40.25% more than 10 days. ================================================================================================================================================================== This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by Tonyder
RIVN - A competitor for Tesla?Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock has recently hit a new 52-week low due to various factors, making it a highly volatile investment. The company's lower-than-expected production output in 2023, cash burn rate, and intensifying EV truck market competition have contributed to this decline. RIVN's Q1'23 deliveries beat estimates, but its 9.39K quarterly production remains unimpressive compared to the 50K annual guidance for FY2023. Furthermore, the company's cash burn rate is unsustainable, with a reliance on debt and capital raises until it achieves positive cash flow. Increased competition in the EV truck market is also a concern, with Ford and General Motors reporting success in their respective segments. Rivian's R1T has garnered positive reviews, but its price is significantly higher than competitors' base models. The stock remains suitable for investors with higher risk tolerances and a long-term investing trajectory. Despite recent recovery, RIVN's uncertain outlook combined with the macroeconomic environment makes the stock very unattractive. From a technical perspective, we may see a move to the upside that reaches the pink area marked on the chart between $17 and $18 but the higher probability move is a continuation to the downside, either from here or from the target area. We will keep you updated on any changes we see on the chart. In the meantime, please trade with care and stay safe!
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by financialflagship
LOOKING FOR TRADESHello, Looking for trades using structured patterns is very helpful in trading the markets. The above/below shows how you can identify this moves for you to be aware of what to expect. An impulse is a strong move in one direction mostly referred to as the trend. From this its clear that we are in a downward trend for this stock. Tradingview also allows you to check and review Financial statements of cos by just clicking on any earnings date. This tells you where a company is at and where it is going. Good luck
NASDAQ:RIVNEducation
by thesharkke
2
Nothing has changedNothing in my count has changed. I believe we will get a decent drop into possibly this afternoon/beginning of next week with a higher chance of the latter. When we finally do get a drop I will be able to give more accurate end points for this wave 5 of C. When we do finally bottom I think Rivian stock will take off. If it follows Tesla then I don't think we will ever see these prices again. Electric vehicles are the future rather we want them or not. Rivian is uniquely positioned to gain from this adaption and are actively attempting to expand at a time when the economy is contracting. It will be interesting over the course of 10-30yrs which EV's make it or not. I putting my cards on Tesla #1 & Rivian #2. Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by TSuth
Does Rivian have more to give?We hit my wave 5 of iii in my last post and started our retrace for wave iv. We've already hit the 1.0 fib line of A-B @ $13.5 so that could be all it gives us for a retrace. The next motive wave we embark on SHOULD carve out our bottom. I will update more frequently and with more detail as that time approaches. If my thoughts are right it should start to descend tomorrow along with the S&P(which I am short as of this writing). Feel free to ask questions or PM me!! Bonam Fortunam, --Tyler
NASDAQ:RIVNShort
by TSuth
1