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PDD Holdings Inc.PDD Holdings Inc.PDD Holdings Inc.

PDD Holdings Inc.

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PDD trade ideas

11/23/24 - $pdd - Close to buying again... ~$10011/23/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PDD Close to buying again... ~$100 - have traded this one around quite extensively, but it's always been a rental, because I'm never quite confident to own chinese stonks after getting the Brandon treatment on my Yandex shares (which eventually turned to NASDAQ:NBIS and i got to dump for btc) - the VIE structures in china remain a concern, to be sure. but ironically i feel much more confident w Trumpo in whitehouse and this setup vs. Kamelo. his first term did similar to chinese stonks, sending them back "home" before there was less concern over time. to be sure China needs the US "less" than 4-8 years ago, but it remains important. also it's all one big club as my friend george carlin says and you and i r not in it (or if you are... godspeed). which is to say, it's all theater they r all friends and ultimately there are no real wars anymore (but i digress...) - so back to $pdd. conf call yielded what sounded like a sequel to the last result "growth moderating so we'll spend more" - but when you look at google trends, a consumer still spending, and a cash strapped consumer... and i realize that google trends aren't the be-all-end-all but they help in the case of gauging brand/ retail interest. TEMU looks pretty legit (that's the marginal grower in the portfolio) trends.google.com - so what's the right price for a chinese stock? always impossible to know short-term. but let's consider amazon is the gold standard. you get half the growth (conservatively bc it's probably 1/3) for 4-5x the PE multiple (of pdd) and you get 20% fcf yield on PDD (on their EV) vs. amzn at 3%. - what about other chinese stocks i follow (typically only the top 3 at this stage b/c the others are exposed to the same risks and with more downside - bc they r not as passively owned) but probably w similar upside. so let's see about another big one, $baba. multiple slightly higher on PE and fcf yield (which i'd point to as the guiding light when valuation metrics are already v low) as 11%. JD closer to 13% fcf yield. a smaller one... NYSE:VIPS (low to now growth) at closer to 30%. so NASDAQ:PDD 's ~20% yield looks pretty attractive for a co that should all-things-equal be the larger enterprise value company (vs. baba). - what's the right way to play it? the million dollar question. into year-end, the stock might see a lot of vol to be sure. i'd hardly see US funds necking into this with size esp when they can take "china risk" with NYSE:TSM which is probably my favorite single name at the moment - i might write that up again. furthermore, tax loss season is upon us, so weak action on recent AMEX:KWEB and all corresponding chinese stonks is going to force some rearranging by passive funds into year end as well. ultimately a bottom could be soon (could already be in), but given i see little reason for the stonk to retrace it's big (again) down move without additional sellers repositioning... the risk/reward looks balanced. as mentioned i am not a "must own china" exposure guy. and my NYSE:TSM position (using leverage) at nearly 25% is big enough. - so the way i'm personally playing it in my PA is further waiting. if it rips/ big catalyst, trump sucks the chinese star... i can hop back in. i'll add it to the top of my watchlist (at this pt i generally will be watching NASDAQ:PDD > NYSE:BABA > NASDAQ:JD as canaries.. the others i'll look again with detail if/when the bellwethers run). - keep an eye on the gap from late '24 as well. market makers have a funny way of dotting these i's and crossing these t's. low $80s would be a good entry. - one more thing. i'm probably going to use medium-term leverage if we go lower. why? because i don't want to tie up a ton of notional cash in chinese names that could take time for catalyst to play out, but are explosive to the upside if/when. furthermore, if something whacky happens, i'd rather take the smaller L then have to cut or be cut off in my account with a zero. i ascribe a small scenario of the "yandex" style event, but would want to build some optionality for myself if/does happen, including ability to size up the calls with a longer dated exposure. remember - the main objective is to not lose money and to set ourselves up in the way where we can maximize upside to downside. i like calls on the chinese names when duty calls. - if you've stuck with me on this long one. i appreciate you (i always do). have been traveling the last week and missed some action, so i'm here on a Saturday reviewing some buckets of names that i've been meaning to check in on (like China). be blessed, V
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by VROCKSTAR
PDD (TEMU) is the new WISHPinduoduo, once a rising star in China's e-commerce market, has recently reported earnings below expectations, marking a significant turning point for its stock. This paper analyzes the technical and fundamental reasons why PDD Holdings' stock could experience a dramatic drop, similar to Wish.com, a platform that lost most of its market value due to strategic missteps, intense competition, and declining investor confidence. 1. Fundamental Analysis 1.1. Disappointing Earnings For the first time, Pinduoduo has posted earnings below market expectations. This is a red flag for several reasons: Decelerating Growth: A mismatch between analysts' projections and actual performance suggests Pinduoduo's rapid growth model may be unsustainable. Margin Pressures: Declining profit margins indicate rising competition or operational inefficiencies, reminiscent of Wish.com. 1.2. Vulnerable Business Model Like Wish, Pinduoduo operates on a low-margin, high-volume group-buying model that is inherently fragile: Low-Value Customers: A customer base driven primarily by extreme discounts tends to lack loyalty and is highly price-sensitive. Perceived Low Quality: Offering low-quality products risks damaging the brand's reputation over time. 1.3. Slowing Chinese Market China's e-commerce sector is becoming saturated, with fierce competition from established players like Alibaba and JD.com. This market saturation could further hinder Pinduoduo's ability to grow and retain market share. 2. Technical Analysis 2.1. Downward Trend in Stock Price Pinduoduo's stock has recently declined significantly, reflecting bearish investor sentiment. Key technical indicators show: Bearish Breakout: The stock price has broken key support levels at $80 and is heading toward lower thresholds. Price Target of $20: Based on Fibonacci retracements and Elliott Wave Theory, the next significant support level is around $20. 2.2. Increased Volatility Recent trading sessions have seen a surge in volume, a classic indicator of institutional selling. This signals aggressive selling pressure, which could accelerate the stock's decline. 3. Parallels with Wish.com 3.1. Wish.com's Decline Wish.com saw its stock collapse from $32 during its IPO to less than $1 due to: Disappointing Financial Results: Consistent earnings misses eroded investor trust. Intense Competition: Other platforms like Amazon and Shopee captured market share. Loss of Active Users: An unsustainable business model led to a shrinking customer base. 3.2. Similarities with Pinduoduo Pinduoduo exhibits similar vulnerabilities, including: Low Margins and High Competition: Like Wish, Pinduoduo faces a highly competitive environment that puts downward pressure on margins. Brand Weakness: A growing perception of low-quality products could erode customer trust and loyalty. 4. Current Developments and Risks Earnings Miss: PDD reported third-quarter revenue growth of 44%, reaching 99.35 billion yuan ($13.7 billion), falling short of the 102.43 billion yuan expected by analysts. Stock Performance: Following the earnings miss, PDD shares dropped 8% in pre-market trading, reflecting growing concerns over its growth trajectory.
NASDAQ:PDDShort
by TheAverageTrader00
4
PDD - hyper growth gem Rising wedge was always going to break down. This company has high exposure to the Chinese consumer, which continues to struggle with no end in sight. That is reflected in the stock price of companies like Alibaba which trade at very low valuations. But unlike Alibaba, PDD is a hyper growth stock and has taken a lot of their market share. Looking at the technicals, there is a gap fill between $80-90. I did start with a small buy at $97 but I’m looking to start a sizeable position at the gap fill. We have all sorts of confluence on the chart, I tend to favour Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci time based trend, along with the Speedfan. I like what I see for a long term investment, not looking to trade this. I do believe the Chinese economy will rebound, and when it does PDD will have a violent rebound. Not financial advice, just my thoughts. I will continue to monitor this and keep you updated. Happy trading!
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by NoFOMO_
13
80% correction for PDD Holdings Inc ??On the above 12 day chart price action has increased 450% since March 2022. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook. They include: 1) Failed support for price action and RSI. 2) Regular bearish divergence, lots of it. Seven oscillators print negative divergence with price action. Look left. 3) The rising wedge breakout and backtest. On confirmation price action has a high probability or returning to where the wedge began as measured from the apexes, which is $30. Is it possible price action continues upwards and onwards? Sure. It is probable? No. Ww
NASDAQ:PDDShort
by without_worries
4
PDD Noteworthy Swing Support Levels, and a word of cautionLooking at NASDAQ:PDD after its earnings fallout, here are some interesting support levels to watch. The 0.618 Fibonacci retrace from the March 2022 pivot low to the May pivot high is at $77.25. Additionally, while Head and Shoulder patterns are not the most reliable, there is a level around $75 obtained from the decently shaped H&S price measurement dropped down from the neckline (white dotted line). Once more, there is a major Gann support level (720 degrees down from the May high pivot) at $78.02, adding another strong factor to this probability window. Another point of interest; dropping the H&S price measurement from the pre-earnings close is almost exactly at today's close (see yellow dotted line). Also piercing the $90.28 gap window, with the gap fill at $80.76 (August 2023). Now, depending on the desired length of a swing trade, it is worth noting comparable earnings drawdowns that did not rebound the same or following day: ROKU (February 2024) NASDAQ:ROKU Just now retracing six months later. PTON (November 2021) NASDAQ:PTON Not yet recovered, if ever. NFLX NASDAQ:NFLX The positive: January 2022 fall on earnings saw a four day down period before a quick partial recovery. The long wait: April 2022 fall on earnings took about six months before retracing to similar levels. Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by XrayTrades
2
8/28/24 - $pdd - mkt full r*tard, buy <$908/28/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PDD mkt full r*tard, buy <$90 - the print **CLEARLY** didn't go as expected. cut losses pre mkt that day and it hurt. dabbled a bit here/ there, but kept feeling the sell OTD (over the day) orders from US institutions. - with the NASDAQ:SMCI "accounting" issue (probably, but probably also more nuanced). the whack tape going into NASDAQ:NVDA earnings. retailers NYSE:ANF getting pooped, space lasers and salad bots getting bonked, today is a weird day. - I can't help but feel like something is happening in the world, and i'm not in the Klub, and i'm about to FAFO here. - but at <$90/shr NASDAQ:PDD feels a bit too sold off. I'm back involved for 1%. I've also got some longer-dated AMEX:KWEB calls (for June next year, ITM) because a bid here will rotate into ALL the suspects, NYSE:BABA , $tencent, NASDAQ:JD etc. as well. - do i know what happens next? never. i've got bit of a colder hand recently too, so tending to play defense. however, this feels like a bit of an over baked cake and the longer-dated AMEX:KWEB 's allow me to put more exposure in this bucket without necking out too large. - I've also added some NASDAQ:CELH , NASDAQ:LULU and NASDAQ:NXT on the day. oh yeah, sized OTC:GDLC back up toward 47% (from 40% y'day). trading all these with a close eye. disgusting day for risk. be safe. V
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by VROCKSTAR
10
PDD is a strong buy after misunderstood earningsPDD (Temu) shares have fallen over 30% after recent earnings implied they have missed their targets by a massive margin, and a cautious comment indicating there might be macro issues going ahead. However, only revenue has missed targets - by only 3% - effectively meeting the markets sky-high expectations. Looking at the actual releases, EPS is 2.97 in Q2 2024, which actually beat the expectation. The company is still experiencing massive growth - even while, as outlined in the meeting notes around supply chain streamlining, they have simply had some short term costs in this regard. A 30% drop in share price is an extreme overreaction and I expect a quick and violent retrace once the market has cleared its head. "Buy when there is blood on the streets" - especially without reason. Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by variable_not_defined
1
PDD Holdings: A Strategic Pivot or a Tempestuous Trial?As PDD Holdings, the e-commerce titan behind Pinduoduo and Temu, confronts a landscape fraught with intensifying competition, economic challenges, and evolving consumer preferences, the question of its future trajectory becomes increasingly pressing. Can the company successfully navigate these turbulent waters, or will it succumb to the tempestuous forces at play? PDD Holdings, once a beacon of e-commerce growth in China, finds itself at a critical juncture. The company's recent second-quarter earnings report, marked by a revenue shortfall and cautious outlook, has sent shockwaves through the market. PDD's strategic pivot, prioritizing long-term value over short-term profitability, while commendable, may face significant challenges in the near term. As PDD grapples with domestic pressures, the company's international expansion strategy, spearheaded by Temu, presents both opportunities and risks. The potential for global growth is undeniable, but the competitive landscape is fiercely contested, with established players like Amazon and Shein vying for market share. The question of whether PDD can successfully navigate these challenges is a complex one. On the one hand, the company possesses a strong financial foundation, with a robust cash position that can provide a buffer during difficult times. Additionally, PDD's commitment to user acquisition beyond China could be a critical driver of future growth. On the other hand, the intensifying competition within the e-commerce sector, coupled with the economic uncertainties in China, pose significant headwinds. PDD's ability to adapt and innovate in such a rapidly evolving environment will be crucial to its long-term success. Investors are closely watching PDD's every move, with opinions on the company's future sharply divided. Some view the current low valuation as an attractive entry point, particularly considering Temu's potential for international expansion. Others, however, remain cautious, citing the ongoing challenges in China, management's tempered outlook, and the possibility of declining profitability. Ultimately, the fate of PDD Holdings hinges on its ability to successfully execute its strategic vision, adapt to changing market conditions, and deliver sustainable value to its investors. The road ahead is likely to be fraught with challenges, but with careful navigation and strategic decision-making, PDD may emerge as a resilient and thriving e-commerce powerhouse.
NASDAQ:PDDShort
by signalmastermind
PDD Stock Plummets 28% on Q2 Revenue MissPDD Holdings (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PDD ), the parent company of the discount e-commerce platform Temu, saw its stock plummet by 28% on Monday following a disappointing second-quarter earnings report. The China-based company, which also operates Pinduoduo, missed analyst expectations, signaling challenges ahead in a competitive landscape that could stifle its rapid growth trajectory. Earnings Report: Slower Sales Growth For the quarter ending June 30, PDD Holdings reported an adjusted earnings of 23.24 yuan per American depositary share (ADS), equating to $3.27 per ADS, with total revenue of 97.06 billion yuan, or $13.64 billion. Despite the impressive year-over-year earnings growth of 122%, the company fell short of Wall Street's expectations, which had forecast earnings of 20.43 yuan per ADS on sales of 100.2 billion yuan, or $14.1 billion. This marked a significant slowdown from the 131% revenue growth rate the company achieved in the first quarter of 2024. The market's reaction was swift, with NASDAQ:PDD stock tumbling below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, critical technical support levels that signal potential further declines. Technical Analysis: A Bearish Breakdown From a technical perspective, PDD's stock chart is flashing warning signs. The stock's plunge on Monday created a gap down, breaking through the 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. This breakdown is particularly concerning for technical traders, as it suggests a bearish trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) which is at 24.51 has also dipped into oversold territory, which could indicate potential short-term buying opportunities. However, with the stock trading well below its key moving averages, the overall trend remains bearish. The next level of support is around the $90 mark, where the stock last found a floor in October 2023. If this level fails to hold, NASDAQ:PDD could see further declines, with potential downside targets around the $85 range. Intensifying Competition: A Threat to Revenue and Profitability PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PDD ) has warned that intensified competition is likely to put pressure on both its revenue growth and profitability. The company's Vice President of Finance, Jun Liu, acknowledged in the earnings release that external challenges and increased competition would inevitably slow down the rapid revenue growth that PDD has enjoyed in recent years. In China, PDD faces fierce competition from e-commerce giants Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD), both of which have ramped up discount offerings to capture more market share amid sluggish consumer spending. PDD's international operations, particularly through its Temu platform, are also under threat as rivals like Amazon (AMZN) and Shein adapt to Temu's disruptive model. Amazon, in particular, is reportedly developing a Temu-like platform that would sell low-cost goods directly from Chinese manufacturers to U.S. consumers, posing a significant threat to Temu's rapid growth in international markets. This heightened competition could force PDD to increase its marketing and operational expenditures, further squeezing profit margins. Strategic Response: Short-Term Sacrifices for Long-Term Gains In response to these challenges, PDD Holdings' leadership has indicated that the company is willing to make short-term sacrifices to ensure long-term growth. Co-CEO Lei Chen emphasized the need to invest heavily in the platform's trust and safety, support high-quality merchants, and improve the overall merchant ecosystem. This strategic shift suggests that PDD is prepared to see a decline in profitability as it navigates an increasingly competitive landscape. Chen's remarks highlight the company's commitment to bolstering its platform's resilience and maintaining its market position, even if it means enduring near-term financial pain. This approach could help PDD weather the storm, but investors should brace for continued volatility in the stock as the company implements these changes. Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for PDD Holdings PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PDD ) is at a critical juncture as it grapples with slower-than-expected revenue growth and intensifying competition. The company's willingness to invest in its platform and accept short-term sacrifices may pay off in the long run, but the immediate outlook remains uncertain. With its stock breaking key technical levels, PDD faces a challenging road ahead as it seeks to maintain its growth trajectory in an increasingly competitive e-commerce landscape. Investors should closely monitor the stock's technical indicators and be prepared for potential further declines if key support levels fail to hold. However, for those with a long-term perspective, PDD's strategic investments could eventually lead to a recovery, provided the company successfully navigates the challenges ahead.
NASDAQ:PDD
by DEXWireNews
8/23/24 - $pdd - small dip buy @ $139 into next week print8/23/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PDD small dip buy @ $139 into next week print - earnings cagr'ing at 25-30% over the next 3 yrs (24-27) in theory - results last q basically not rewarded - ex cash (bc that's 1/4 of the cap stack) trades at 9x this year and 7 and change times next year EPS (rounding error with where these chinese stocks change... broad strokes fam) - so unless someone at the department of chinese stonks has been leaking a bad figure for mon's print (i'd doubt it, but who the f knows these days), this is an interesting dip buy into print - i've kept my size small so i can eval if i'd like to dip buy a miss (probably yes is my sense - again i like owning stuff w good valuations, good setups and where i'd dip buy a miss) but also enough where i can let it run if works so for me that's about 75 bps as of the writing. - for my friends who are keeping tabs on chinese stonks (and not knowing the pdd print) i'd say my pecking order is as follows NASDAQ:PDD > NYSE:BABA > NYSE:VIPS > NASDAQ:JD > NASDAQ:BIDU and a stinky linky that i keep my eyes on but haven't owned is $remx... a bag of rare earth mineral companies with super low floats. but let's not touch that one for now, just yet, superman. V
NASDAQ:PDDLong
by VROCKSTAR