$GLEN ( Glencore ) Good entry or falling knife? idea shown above.. falling out of the channel and possibly further downside risk
GLEN trade ideas
GLN.JSE Glencore Diversified Miner 1W FIB Study.Glencore - a Diversified Miner has recently broken to the downside of the Trading Range.
This is expected due to the weakness in the overall Commodity Market Cycle.
Using the Fibonacci Levels from High to Low, I see a possible retracement to the 50% Level.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment decisions.
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$JSEGLN - Glencore: How Far Can The Fifth Wave Go?See link below for previous analysis.
Glencore did not take long to reverse after the previous analysis.
The stock was in a hurry and did not go low enough to test the lower support channel.
The strong reversal from 8708 has prompted an update with wave labelled as a zigzag pattern and price has now broken out of the channel added further evidence that the stock is now in wave .
Fifth waves can be very strong in commodity stocks so the question is how far can wave go?
Buy the dips, if we get any.
Potential BUY !Details are on the chart to make it easier to follow the idea. This is not an advise to buy or sell the stock, sharing my knowledge. what are your thoughts?
GLENCORE Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
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1-23-2024
Strong downtrend with RED TrapZone established for days now. Price retraces with GREEN UMVD but the effect is not the same as RED UMVD - Obviously. Price is retracing a bit again with GREEN UMVD coming in now.
Our opinion on the current state of GLENCORE(GLN)Glencore, one of the world's largest global diversified natural resource companies, manages over 150 mining, metallurgical, oil production, and agricultural facilities across more than 50 countries. The company's extensive global presence and diverse commodity portfolio make it less volatile compared to more specialized mining houses. Since the commodity cycle uptick in early 2016, Glencore has particularly benefited from owning significant cobalt resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), crucial for electric vehicle batteries. However, the DRC government's move to classify cobalt as a "strategic mineral" could lead to higher taxes.
Glencore has also been proactive in shareholder returns, initiating a $2 billion buyback of its shares. A strategic move saw Glencore acquiring Anglo American's 33% stake in the Colombian Correjon colliery for $294 million on 28th June 2021, capitalizing on heightened coal prices amid the Ukraine conflict.
In a December 2022 investor update, the company announced plans to close half of its coal mines in Australia, South Africa, and Colombia as part of its strategy to reduce its carbon footprint. This decision reflects a significant shift towards more sustainable practices amidst global climate concerns.
Financially, Glencore's 2023 year-end results indicated a decline, with revenue down by 15% and earnings per share decreasing by 74%. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $17.1 billion and net income attributable to equity holders of $4.3 billion, evidencing robust earnings despite lower commodity prices affecting global energy trade flows.
For the first quarter of 2024, Glencore maintained its full-year production guidance, although there were declines in the production of key commodities like copper (down 2%), cobalt (down 37%), ferrochrome (down 26%), and coal (down 1%). Conversely, increases were noted in lead (up 11%), nickel (up 14%), and gold (up 7%).
Technically, Glencore's share price movement showed a "descending double top" pattern, a bearish signal where the second peak fails to rise above the first, noted in April 2024. This pattern, coupled with the failure to surpass the January 2023 high of R120, suggests potential challenges ahead. Nevertheless, the share could see further upside potential if it breaks above the R120 resistance level, contingent on broader commodity market trends and Glencore's operational efficiencies.
$JSEGLN - Glencore: Triangle Invalidated; Re-look At The Big PicSee link below for previous analysis.
After prolonged sideways movement, price broke below 9230 invalidating the triangle outlook.
This has prompted me to label the advance from 7920 to 12433 as wave (5).
A look at the bigger picture fits an impulse as the five wave advance from 2254 to 12433 for wave .
I am looking at the current pullback as wave and ideally should terminate above 7209.
I will sit on my hands and monitor price action within the descending channel.
GLENCORE - Range IDEAThe stock is finding support around the R97-99 zone with at RSI which has turned up off oversold territory.
We could possibly have a leg up initially to the 200dma then the top of range at R110.
I'm happy to hold long while R95 holds on any daily close.
Glencore Facing HeadwindsGlencore is in the timing for a daily cycle low, price action has carved out a symmetrical triangle that can break either way. Our guide is the previous cycle low with a price of R99.03, anytime we go below this price we know the trend has turned bearish. We also see the megaphone pattern going back to the COVID low. The support of the megaphone needs a third touch to be validated, we have confidence that this is what is attracting price action.
Ideally we want lower than R99.03 before the triangle breaks to the upside, this gives the short opportunity more profit as it will be a bulltrap. Such setups give swift moves as stops get triggered below the blue line.
Glencore ready to smash through its 6 month rectangleW Formation and Rectangle formation has formed since May 2023...
Now, we are definitely getting signs of upside, more than downside.
That's because the resources sector and precious metals sector is showing positive signs.
As we welcome 2024, investors will be using their bonuses and will be reinvesting in the new year which will lead to the January Effect.
Also, there is optimism in the air with America cooling off inflation rate and interest rate hikes.
Other indicators show upside for now including:
7>21 moving average (SHort term)
Price>200 (Bull market)
Target 1 will be at R131.00
GLNMedium term view. Buy at current levels or lower. The persistent print against the overhead resistance as well as Friday's candle structure may be indicative of the potential for the share to breach it's downward trend and potentially trade higher over the medium term. The strong move higher in Copper Futures may also be supportive of the buy/long view. Some further consolidation could be expected before the potential swing higher. Trade Management: As always, traders could consider the following if/when the share approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time stop: Monday, 06 May 2024.
TRADING LEVELS:
Entry: 10749
Target: 12051
Stop-loss: 9760
Our opinion on the current state of GLNGlencore (GLN) describes itself as, "...one of the world’s largest global diversified natural resource companies and a major producer and marketer of more than 90 commodities". The group's operations comprise around 150 mining and metallurgical sites, oil production assets and agricultural facilities. With a strong footprint in both established and emerging regions for natural resources, Glencore's industrial and marketing activities are supported by a global network of more than 90 offices located in over 50 countries." So, this is a massive, diversified mining house which markets its products all over the world and is involved in almost every mineable commodity that exists. This means that it is far less volatile and risky than other less diverse mining houses. Since the commodity cycle turned at the start of 2016, one of the greatest beneficiaries has been Glencore, particularly because of the fact that it owned the world's richest source of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Cobalt is the metal used in the batteries which will be needed by the world's shift to electric motor vehicles. The problem is that the government in the DRC is in the process of declaring cobalt to be a "strategic mineral" - which means much higher tax. The company is in the process of aggressively buying back FWB:2BN worth of its own shares. Glencore announced on 28th June 2021 that it had bought Anglo's 33% stake in Correjon colliery in Columbia for $294m. Glencore clearly benefited from the war in Ukraine and the increase in coal prices particularly. In an investor update on 6th December 2022 the company announced that it was planning to close 12 of its 26 coal mines in Australia, South Africa, and Columbia to reduce its carbon footprint. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2023 the company reported revenue down 20% and earnings per share (EPS) down 61%. The company said, "Against the backdrop of a normalisation of commodity market imbalances and volatility, primarily across the energy spectrum, our Marketing and Industrial segments posted a healthy earnings performance, delivering Group Adjusted EBITDA of $9.4 billion, cash generated by operating activities of $8.4 billion and Net income attributable to equity holders of $4.6 billion". The Business Day on 30th October 2023 said that Glencore had cut its guidance for nickel production in 2023 but retained its prediction of between $3,5bn to $4bn in trading profits from its trading division. Copper, zinc, coal and cobalt guidance remained unchanged. The share price went into a major bull trend in 2016 and for most of 2017, rising from 1750c to over 7000c. Since then it has made a convincing "descending double top", with the second top being slightly lower than the first. Technically, this is a bad sign. The fact that the share could not rise above its top at R70 was a major disappointment to the bulls. We recommended applying a long-term downward trendline starting from the second top in June 2018 and waiting for an upside break. That break occurred at 4719c on 3rd December 2020. Since then the share has risen to 9850c. We still see this share having further upside potential.
$JSEGLN - Glencore: Maintaining Running Triangle OutlookThe last update on Glencore was on 03.05.2023. link below.
The stock has continued its sideways consolidation, trading in a range between 11326 and 9903.
At this stage it is difficult to conclude that wave E of (4) is complete at 9903 as wave E can still trade lower but should terminate at or above 9230.
There is no clarity on this stock so I will continue to sit on my hands.
GLENCORE - Possible LongAs with our alert on JSE:BHG , JSE:GLN has broken out of a consolidation area. If it continues to trade higher, we will be triggered into a long position.
Glencore showing strong W and ready to break up and out to R136Glencore showing a potential W Formation.
We need the price to break above the neckline before we get further traction up.
Other indicators show strong upside to come including...
7>21 - Bullish
price >200 - Bullish
RSI>50 HIgher lows.
Target 1 for the resource company is at R136.20
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Founding: Glencore was founded in 1974 by Marc Rich, a controversial financier and commodities trader.
Name Origin: The name Glencore was derived from the words "Global Energy Commodities Resources". It was chosen when the company was taken public in 1994 after Marc Rich sold his stake.
Commodities Trading: Glencore is one of the world's largest globally diversified natural resource companies. It's a major player in the production and marketing of over 60 commodities.
Glencore operates in over 35 countries and employs approximately 145,000 people.
Initial Public Offering (IPO): Glencore went public in 2011 on both the London and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges. IN 2013, it listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) under the ticker "GLN".
Xstrata Merger: In 2013, Glencore completed a merger with Xstrata, a major global mining company, in a deal worth approximately $30 billion.
Glencore ($JSEGLN) Towards Support of WedgeGlencore price has oscillated between the blue support & upper pink resistance. On daily chart price has lost the 200DMA, per cycles it is seeking a half cycle low, a bullish move from here can bring bulls buying but the expectation is price will not breach the downward slopping resistance before turning down again. This time the blue support would not hold triggering many stop-looses adding fuel to price capitulation towards the lower support that is now same slope with the 200WMA. Glencore is also due a yearly cycle low, if it does not attain this in one go, further weakness awaits.
$JSEGLN - Glencore: Wave 4 Triangle Or Five Waves Done?The last coverage of Glencore was on 30 September 2022, link below.
Price has continued to move generally sideways though a new peak was made at 12433.
My preferred count hinges on the interpretation of the move from 7920 to 12433 which i view as a corrective move and not a motive move.
This interpretation means that the sideways price action from 10594 is a running triangle.
In running triangle structures, wave B exceeds the origin point of wave A, the wave (3) peak.
For the triangle outlook to remain valid, wave E must terminate around 9230 (it can undershoot slightly).
Triangles can be tricky to trade as the waves can form larger structures, i.e. wave D can push above 11326 but must remain below 12433 to remain valid.
At this juncture, it is unclear what is likely to happen so i will sit on my hands and continue to monitor price action.
LESSON of the day: Wait for Strong and Confirmed BreakoutsMany people like to predict breakouts.
If there is one thing you learn today it's this.
Always WAIT for a strong and confirmed breakout.
There is a reason why the price hasn't breached the neckline (resistance). And that's because the fight is still on between the bulls and the bears.
Now that Glencore has broken down not only has it slanted the Cup and Handle pattern but also.
1. There is a Break- away gap - Bearish.
2. The price is below 200MA - Bearish
3. 7=21MA and looks to cross down.
Sure the price can turn up and close the gap, but the risk is too high!
So follow your strategy and wait for a confirmed breakout.
These lessons are important to learn before they become costly.
GLN This idea was published on our client platform earlier this morning. For regular access to research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today.
Pre-Market Trading Plan. If you're a short term/active trader, this is how you could approach Glencore. The share has had a strong move off the lows of 9230c (16 March), testing a high of 11113c during yesterday's session and closing at 11055c. The 1-month advance leaves the share with short term 'approaching overbought' rating while also settling in the middle of the 50/61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone as well as at the prior breakdown level. The following is a price action scenario: (1) a print above yesterday's highs, pushing the share into ultra short term overbought territory. Any failure to hold the these highs (dark cloud cover) or a failure to hold the level at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at around 11216c may be a signal that the short term upside expansion has lost momentum and may be due a bearish reversal. On this basis, my 'best probability' selling range is above 11250c up to approximately 11370c. Note that we may see an overshoot on the upside. The downside target would be the 10750c range. Time Stop: Wed, 03 May 2023.
TRADING LEVELS:
Entry: 11250c
Target: 10750c
Stop-loss: 11610c
GlencoreJSE:GLN took a deep dive slicing through what was a potential support level. The market is showing all kinds of weakness, it's prudent to stick to sound risk and money management. For some, it may be an opportunity to pick "cheap" companies. Whatever you do, know that it can get worse.
Glencoe - On supportGLN has pulled back nicely from recent highs (around 124). Currently on blue TL support (just above 100). Would like to see a bounce from here with a stop loss on a close below 95.
GLENCORE - 200ma RevisitGlencore has come back to re-visit the rising 200ema
Will be watching closely to see how the price action develops here.
GlencoreKeeping an eye on JSE:GLN price action. The share price is at an area of value, and a key MA. For buyers, a bounce up will be beneficial, and for sellers a break down will be beneficial. PGMs are getting wrecked, is there a bull case for a diversified miner like JSE:GLN ?
