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INDIAN RUPEE / U.S. DOLLAR

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INRUSD trade ideas

Option straddle to serve best for USD/INR risks ahead of budgetIt's a big day for INR today, after consistent loses against dollar, Monday morning has nothing positive to offer given the subdued global sentiment. Yes, all eyes will be on the Union Budget which Finance Minister Arun Jaitley would present around 11 am. The key focus would be on Corporate tax reduction, increasing service tax rate, some steps towards GST implementation, capital support for PSU banks and divestment of government stakes in PSUs along with some reforms are among the broad expectations. As a result, we've already seen FIIs sell in equities to the tune of Rs. 695 crores. While in Index Futures, they bought of worth Rs. 734 crores with marginal change in open interest, indicating blend to both long formation and short covering in last trading session. Technically, although USDINR showing some upside potential, it has been losing upswings momentum from last couple of trading days as the rejection of resistance at 68.7539 levels. Even though the bears began pushing downwards we saw sharp bounces every now and then, thereby we could see bull candles with big real body quite often. Leading oscillators are also moving in linear direction to signify indecision but slightly narrowed curve indicates reduced momentum in previous intraday selling pressures and so is the MACD. On a significant economic event today, we now keep an eye on potential breach above mentioned resistance at 68.7539 levels and INR gains on the contrary, options straddle is the best suitable in such range bounded circumstances in put with 50% delta. Long options straddle that fetched unlimited returns during higher implied volatility scenarios short term. So, go simultaneously long in at the money call and, and limited risk to the extent of initial premiums paid options. Well, this option trading strategy that are usually used during significant economic news, in this case when the options trader ponders that the USDINR will experience significant volatility ahead budget event, in the near term it would be highly volatile pair to trade with but expects the swings in either way.
by FxWirePro
1
Will USDINR breakout and depreciate INR further?China's central bank guided the yuan lower on Thursday FX_IDC:CNYUSD . China's first shock devaluation in August jolted the global financial markets and Indian currency "INR" was also affected by this sudden move. This second devaluation has come at such a crucial time, when money market was expecting strengthening in "INR" and start of appreciating trend. Can "INR" sustain the pressure or it will prevail further devaluation? Go long FX_IDC:USDINR Trade Trigger 67.2 Target 68.6 SLTP 66.7
Long
by GundyaBhau
India Could Be the Most Resilient of the BRICSThe BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are highly watched emerging markets because they represented roughly 22 percent of global GDP in 2014. However, the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical tension has weighed heavy on these markets. Although, India may be the most resilient economy out of the BRICS. India has felt its share of the slower economic climate, as the Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, falling to 51.2 from 52.3. According to Markit, there are signs of sustainable growth but input costs decreased for two months consecutively, which has not happen since the financial crisis. Both manufacturing and industrial output have remained stable. Services PMI has seen improvement since late 2014. In relation, the Chinese manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.2 and has been contracting since March while near the worst levels since March 2009. Due to the slack in the economy and less than expected inflation, the Reserve Bank of India cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 6.75 percent. This strengthened the rupee has investors look for it to hinder capital outflow. It also comes as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalues the yuan. USDINR is likely to fall further as I expect the dollar to remain weak following the onslaught of poor economic data. Friday's non-farm payroll print of 146,000 was well below the 201,000 general consensus. To add insult to injury, August's jobs number was revised lower by 50,000 which left mouthpiece economists in bewilderment. The Fed's inability to act, in regards to an interest rate boost, will leave the dollar on shaky ground. Fed fund futures traders are not pricing in a potential for Fed action until June/July of 2016 - although, I am forecasting a recession by then. The USDINR is trending within a descending channel with support at 65.28, but the pair will travel to the 50 percent Fib. retracement at 65.15 (with the 72-daily EMA as further support). Secondary target is 64.83. Resistance can be found at 65.6060, 65.8337 and 66.1374 Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
USDINR(Daily). Inverse Head and Shoulders Potential.Not a famous pair, but a potential opportunity, nevertheless. 1.5 Year Consolidation, Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern, at 50% retracement, Neck_line resistance. Price broke out from Down_Trend Line, and may be completing a potential AB=CD, short term Overbought. Long(IF), Potential brake_out, holding above 64.0800 and retesting of the Neck_line(becoming Support) could offer a Long entry opportunity. MACD turning up, above zero, indicating momentum increase, and ATR turning up at resistance. Support Level at 50, 200 sma, and Uptrend_line, following through.
Long
by rv
7