Coffee could redefine what a bull market really isThe multi-year base in Coffee, if this is a correct chart diagnosis, could send Coffee into the troposphere. Seldom have we seen "life-of-contract" multi year bases, but this could be one
KC1! trade ideas
KC1!6.8.23 This is a video follow up on coffee that started out as a great long trade for my students and then the market transitioned and started going lower to the point it looked like sellers were going to prevail. However the market Started reversing and moving higher but not with Reckless abandon. It looked more like a difficult grind moving higher as opposed to a clear Bullish price Action Moving higher. It's different... and therefore it can be more difficult to trade... and or stay committed to the grind going higher. So it didn't look really bullish but the sellers weren't Pushing it lower and so we stayed with the thought that the Buyers have a slight edge over the sellers and that we should hold with a long position as opposed to Exiting the market,,,, and this paid off. It's about what the market did and what it didn't do for my perspective: It was grinding higher, but not in a very convincing way.... so that's what it was doing. And the market really didn't show any significant selling at all...So we can stay in the trade. I find these harder trades to stay in personally. But sometimes it pays to just stay in the market a little bit longer even when it's not as convincing as you would like it to be that it will stay trading in the direction that it is trading at this time when you're not enthusiastic about the price action. When the market was grinding higher... there really was no evidence if the sellers were pushing it lower.... so stay with the trade. This kind of price action and the price action.
KC1!6.7.23 This video is about the coffee market.... with a focus on Probabilities as the markets moving higher and lower.... from my perspective. This is not a science.... it's not perfect... but it helps you manage your expectations more effectively based on market behavior and patterns.
Potential Selling Scenario for COFFEEExpecting bearishness for coffee the next weeks because of the seasonality, and market structure of the coffee futures chart
GOLD5.30.23 This is a follow-up on gold. When it was near the bottom it gave a buy signal and it has moved $4,000 higher. so far it is a profitable trade. life is complicated for me because I want to buy gold if it makes a new low so that I can get a better price. The market can certainly move higher and make new highs from here... and if I don't buy the physical metals then it ends up I'll pay more money for that decision. On the other hand the market is approaching the 382 there are sellers that have gap this market lower and the buyers have not yet Tested those areas.... and if we can find a two-bar reversal or some indicator that the Market's going to at least temporarily move lower, That would give some Reassurance that we're not completely in trouble.
One more look at last night's performance5.22.23 I really did a terrible job last night.... it shouldn't have happened. This video will clean up some basic Things that you need to look for... the first being that you must know where the buyers and the sellers are. You want to short when you're approaching the sellers, But sometimes this is very difficult to do because you might think you're selling into very bullish price action and that you're going to get stopped out if you take a short. This is an issue but you will figure it out as long as you understand these issues. When you take a trade to go long... and the market is trading lower to support....i.e. you want to look for buyers figure this out. The same is true when you were shorting the market Looking for sellers to move the market lower. If you do this kind of trading you have a much higher chance of getting into the market that will trade in your direction because of those buyers that will step into the market after your entry... and so the market will not likely stop you out even though it may only go up a little bit and then trade lower. The idea is to pick Trade location that's more likely than not to at least go in your direction for a while.... it makes life a lot easier.
KC1!5.15.23 This video focuses on coffee. It has some great examples of market action that could be misinterpreted...But you're going to do okay if you're careful. Today's opening price gave a great Profitable Long trade.... but if all you were thinking is that the market was that a support area and it's a two bar reversal to go long... that's all you needed to think and trade... and the market did the rest. I know some people are trading coffee so I'm hoping that they take a look at this today.... and for people who don't trade coffee the way to handle this Market is the same when markets run stops and find a support and then give you a reversal pattern that will take good care of you... and it will never hit your stop.
KC1!5.7.23 This is a review of the coffee market which is approaching A potential reversal area because it's coming close to a bearish gap lower. Really what you have to do Is watch the market when it's trading later today on Sunday or Monday when the volume of trade will be significant. I spent A good bit of time on this video to show you where there might be the potential of important Reversals if the market manages to trade higher to the 618 Retracement...This is interesting but not relevant to a trade ...if the market reaches this level.
Bobby's homework assignment part 15.5.23 We looked at gold that had a breakout higher Earlier in the week but then it corrected, And we were able to speculate that we could draw a range box on the highest bar once the market corrected and went back to where it had gapped higher. If you look at the video you'll see what I mean. The significance is that I estimated what the range Box should be by the end of that bar. Wrench boxes are great, But to get the most utility out of them you need to know what they look like before they're obviously arranged box. There is always Going to be A component of Doubt on any decision that you make... including the decision that the Market's going to range when it looks like it's trending.... but knowing how markets move and correct you make decisions based on the probability,And whatever your decision is to enter the market you package that decision with a small stop in case you're wrong. It is not an easy way to trade until you test it... paper trade it. Don't ever take trading advice from somebody you don't know and haven't followed.... this means that you're making trading decisions from somebody you don't know.... Traders do this all the time and they lose money. And then they're angry when they lose money that they were given Losing information when in fact they took a trade Trying not to take responsibility to find opportunity and manage the risk.... everything about this Is a losing strategy. We talked about a long trade that was initiated yesterday on the coffee contract.I'm going to be home
Bobby's Homework Assignment5.4.23 I decided to do a hypothetical exercise on the coffee chart as if we were Taking trade signals the last 4 days Based on gaps and reversal areas.... to give you a perspective of how much money you could possibly make in this market if you Took only two Trades even though you could have had up the four trades in the same. Of time. Personally I don't want to reverse Trades every Reversal pattern... it's too much work for me and too much time,,,, but it is easy to see the reversals if you know to look for them.
Oil Tesla4.28.23 I think oil Is going higher and that you could enter the market with a small stop... the video gives more detail. Tesla Completed A gartly pattern and an ABCD pattern.... it actually opened at the low yesterday and then proceeded to move higher. Obviously in retrospect that should have been a two bar reversal and a long trade at the low. You might wait for a small correction lower and then consider a long trade thinking that the Market's not going to make a new low but it'll trade lower to your stop Reducing your risk. I didn't really go into much detail in the video about that. the commodity that I want to focus on Is coffee.... it is a great exercise in actively Observing the market to determine where buyers and sellers are likely to be.... with a market that offers significant profits to buyers and sellers because it has enough volatility and price action for both sides of the market. I am sure for the first 30 years that I fought this kind of price action because I didn't want to factor in the Sellers when I wanted to be long because it was a threat to my trade. And of course it works the other way if I'm a seller. That Is the Trader's problem...It's about Dysfunctional thinking on the part of the trader. Do you want to drive safely, you want to look left and right. If you want to trade safely, you want to look up and down. (and Left and right).
Bobby's Homework Assignment4.27.23 This video Is an analysis of coffee, but it is really an analysis of price action and reversal patterns for buyers and sellers. this market services buyers and sellers. The good buyers and the good sellers will make money in this market, and if you take a look at Trades that could have been taken if you could find the proper trade location... it might even be surprising how profitable these markets can be for both the buyers and the sellers. The biggest problem I had with my Trading was that I didn't want to accept that realization that something was going on with the market That was going to interrupt my trade and cost me money. Usually when this happens... for most Traders including myself it was very difficult to acknowledge it and then study the situation while the market was proceeding to lose me money because something had changed in the market. and this went on for a long time until I found a very simple solution: Stop day trading for a few years and figure out what the heck was going on... without the stress of losing money in the interim. Not only did I learn more, but I learned that the market will change direction and that it doesn't have to hurt me so consistently if I'm willing to change my paradigm once I understand how markets move before I lose my money. When you're losing money, the brain Stops working and it is nearly impossible to think with the same clarity that is needed to be profitable.... but this doesn't happen until you're in a state of mind that is more objective and is WILLING To observe... and that is NOT when you are losing money.
Silver Coffee4.26.23 This video looks at silver and coffee Looking at trend lines on the silver market and price action and GAP relationships on the coffee market.
Bobby's Homework Assignment4.25.23 KC1! In this video I use coffee as the example to talk about gap relationships if it will help you determine where the buyers and the sellers are... and where the market may reverse.It is extremely helpful in making trade decisions.... before you're in a trade... and after you are in a trade. Once you get it.... you can just see it... and make quick decisions as to whether or not you should act on it. Looking at gaps the way I describe them Shows you where the market might trade for you or against you while you are in a trade. Yes, sometimes it gets a little confusing and you're not sure whether you should take heed...But that is what's required if you want to be a discretionary Trader and improve your chances... In my opinion. Note>I do not have real time data on coffee... so all of my charts on coffee are delayed. Obviously if you're Trading and you want optimal trade location... and these little quirks regarding Gaps and retest of gaps... you need real time data. There are people who make a lot of money without real-time data... but they're not doing to make real time decisions and they make money. If you have the real time data, and you make intraday decisions,This kind of information can help.
KC1!4.13.23 Coffee had a good day today....And this was consistent with our observation at an earlier time that coffee was in a trending ranging market but it looked like it was going to move higher and expand into a large ABCD pattern higher. I talked about some of this in more detail.... including my vision on how a market transitions into A more volatile market... and I show this through the way I use the lines and project the market in advance. the details are on the video.
Daily KC analysisDaily KC analysis
A long position with the target and stop loss as shown in the chart
The trend is up, we may see more upside
All the best, I hope for your participation in the analysis, and for any inquiries, please send in the comments.
He gave a signal from the strongest areas of entry, special recommendations, with a success rate of 95%, for any inquiry or request for analysis, contact me
COFFEE3.29. 23 Coffee Double the range box and went lower... Expanding the market. Should look for buyers with a small stop.
KC1!3.27.23 Coffee Coffee is an interesting market because it started out as a trending behavior and then it corrected to the 382, And now it is ranging. I went through the transitions And showed you how I would have Framed the market for a trade. The details are in the video.
long position on KCMy strategy is based on price action with the reading of certain indicators that I like while respecting all the values that define the stock maket
Coffe cyclesI see that each cycle consist of
1. a bull run
2. a try to reach kumo , sometimes reaches the kumo (circles in red), but never goes above the kumo!
The question is,
- will it happen this time?
☕️Coffee futures (KC): third wave bull market.●● Preferred count
● Coffee Cash (KC.C), 🕐TF: 30D
Fig.1
In Fig. 1 , the wave count from 02/07/2022 . At the moment, the market is in the initial stage of the development of the primary wave ③ . The alternative scenario is the same — the continuation of the formation of the wave e of (IV) , as it is marked in black .
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● Coffee C®️ Futures (KC1!), 🕐TF: 6h
Fig.2
The wave ① formed the shape of an expanding diagonal . There is another infrequent pattern on the chart — an expanding triangle at the position of the wave (X) of ② .
Growth is expected to continue.
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📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
Coffee Part 12.28.23 This is the review of coffee and a closer look at A good trade location. I'm debating on making this part one because I want to account for the difficulty in making a trade decision at this time when I got to the end of the video. because I fumbled a little bit.... and I want you to know what that means because this happens all the time.... And that is okay Because this is my barometer to keep me out of a trade until there's more clarity. I don't have to take a trade if I'm not ready for the trade because it's not clear.
